NSDQ100 Consolidation capped at 21820 levelThe NSDQ100 (USTec) index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. However, since reaching an all-time high on 24th December 2024 the NSDQ100 index price action is consolidating in a sideways trading range.
The key trading level is at 21400, which is the current swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 21400 level could target the upside resistance at 21820 followed by the 21950 and 22130 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 21400 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 21240 support level followed by 21940.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Us100
US100 Trade Log - CPI Pre-ShotUS100 long ahead of "CPI release" , pre-shot long for Asia session.
- Entry at "1H Kijun" and deep into "15m FVG" , aligning with pre-triangle accumulation.
- Structure is "hyper discretionary" but leans into my bullish bias.
- "Max pain: 2%" , treating this as a CPI momentum trade.
- If price respects the level, expecting an upside expansion. If not, I eat the loss.
NAS100USD: False Breakout & Institutional Sell ModelGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we observe a recent bullish shift in price action; however, this appears to be a false break of structure rather than a genuine bullish continuation. The market behavior suggests a classic liquidity raid, clearing buy stops before setting the stage for a potential bearish continuation. Let’s break this down in detail.
KEY OBSERVATIONS
1. Liquidity Raid & Displacement:
Price aggressively pushed above the engineered trendline to clear liquidity resting above it. Following this raid, we observed a strong displacement toward the downside, signaling that smart money likely distributed sell orders against the buy stop liquidity.
2. Premium Price Zone:
Price is currently positioned within a deep premium range, a high-probability zone for institutional traders to initiate sell positions. This premium alignment strengthens the case for further bearish movement.
3. Rejection Block as Resistance:
The market is reacting to a rejection block, which serves as a critical institutional resistance zone—the last line of defense for bearish momentum. This reinforces our bearish bias and offers a potential entry area.
TRADING PLAN
1. Entry Strategy:
Wait for confirmation at the rejection block to ensure a high-probability entry.
Focus on short opportunities in line with institutional order flow.
2. Target Zones:
Aim for discount liquidity pools resting at lower levels. These areas are prime targets for institutional traders to offload positions and take profits.
Conclusion:
By recognizing the false break of structure and understanding the liquidity dynamics at play, we align our strategy with the institutions’ intentions. Patience and precision will be key in capturing this opportunity.
Stay focused and trade smart.
The Architect 🏛️📊
NASDAQ repeating the 2021 and 2019 rallies.Nasdaq (NDX) is about to complete a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern. The whole sequence since the August 22 2024 High appears to be very similar with the price action that preceded the 2021 and 2019 C&H patterns.
As you can see, both of those pattern had an identical trend towards them and equally rally after them, which targeted the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
If the current C&H is completed on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), it is reasonable to expect to continue to repeat those past patterns. As long as the 20600 Low doesn't break, we expect a June rally to 24650 at least.
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US100 Is Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for US100.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 21,473.9.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 21,049.7 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Now its time to short!The Market is bought out.
But since a few weeks we are in a consolidation phase at the big US indices.
The markets are getting drowned with buy orders, but its stil ranging. Something which tells as that retailers are taking overhand. Institutions are using those phases to sell off their big postions too the "dumb money".
We just need to wait until the retail money is empty and there are no further buy orders.
At this moment big moves are gonna happen.
NASDAQ 100 Hits Key Resistance: Is a Retracement Imminent?In this video, I analyze the NASDAQ 100 (#NAS100) as it trades into a key resistance level, appearing overextended on the 4-hour timeframe. I discuss the potential for a counter-trend trade, targeting a retracement to the 50% Fibonacci level of the previous price swing. Watch for insights and strategies on navigating this setup! Not financial advice.
NASDAQ Triangle rejected at the top. Bearish until broken.Nasdaq is trading inside a Triangle pattern, which rejected the price on its top today.
As long as it holds, it is more likely to see a decline towards the 0.786 like both prior bearish legs.
A cross above the Triangle though, will be a bullish break out targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy if the price crosses above the top of the Triangle.
Targets:
1. 21050 (Fib 0.786).
2. 22900 (Fib 2.0 extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is testing its Rising Support trendline. A break confirms the bearish signal. A rebound, raises the chances of a Triangle break out.
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NASDAQ: Perfect neutral setup for scalp buy.Nasdaq is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.467, MACD = 38.030, ADX = 17.154) since the index has been consolidating for the past 6 weeks. This offers great opportunities to buy low and sell high. At the moment the 1H RSI oversold bounce indicates that we has started a similar Channel Up so Jan 13th and Jan 27th. The symmetric RSI level suggests that this is where the index pulls back to retest the 1H MA50 and then rebounds for a new HH. On the medium term we are limited by the R1 Zone, so aim for its bottom (TP = 21,845).
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NAS100USD: Bearish Continuation Likely After Gap FillGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we observe that the market remains bearish overall, and our focus is on taking advantage of selling opportunities in line with this prevailing trend.
Market Context:
Gap Fill Complete:
The week began with a significant downside gap, creating a price inefficiency. The market has since retraced upward to fill this gap, signaling a potential continuation of the bearish trend.
Premium Price Zone:
Price is currently in a premium range, where smart money institutions are likely to initiate sell positions. We’ve taken out premium liquidity resting above an engineered resistance zone—a classic setup where smart money manipulates retail traders into entering positions, only to reverse the market and pair sell orders against their stop losses and pending orders.
Bearish Order Block:
Price is currently reacting at a bearish order block, a key institutional resistance zone. This provides a strong area to seek confirmation entries for short positions.
Trading Plan:
Entry Strategy : Look for confirmation within the bearish order block for short opportunities.
Targets: Focus on discount liquidity pools at the lows, where institutions are likely to scale out and book profits.
For a detailed explanation of my strategy, check out the first video of my 2025 ICT Mentorship lectures linked below:
Foundations of Mastery: 2025 Mentorship Begins!
Kind Regards,
The Architect
NASDAQ 1D MA100 held. Strong rally ahead.Last week we took a look at Nasdaq's (NDX) Triangle and the buy signal that emerged on the short-term Support Zone (see chart below):
The signal turned out to be successful and the price eventually hit our 21800 Target and got rejected again on the Lower Highs trend-line.
Today an even stronger buy signal emerged, this time on a long term horizon as not only did the price touch the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the August 2024 Channel Up but also hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
This is the 3rd test of this level in 2 weeks and the 3rd hold. Technically this is a Triple Bottom formation and one of the strongest buy signals. Two times already within this Channel Up we have seen Bullish Legs of +15.70%. As a result we can technically target 23700.
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US100 Trade LogUS100 setup: Long position with "1:4 RRR" and "0.5% risk" based on accumulation and gap fill breakout.
- Entry within the "1H FVG" , targeting a push towards the "daily Kijun" .
- Structure confirms a potential continuation move, though risk remains controlled.
- Powell’s recent remarks and market liquidity shifts may fuel volatility.
- Stops placed below the accumulation zone; aiming for an extended move if momentum holds.
DOW JONES INDEX (US30): Bullish Outlook Explained
It feels like US30 index is preparing to recover
after Friday's and today's selloff.
As a confirmation, I see a nice bullish imbalance
after a test of a daily support and a tiny ascending triangle
pattern on an hourly.
Goals: 44196 / 44470
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NAS100 - Tariff War, the scourge of the stock market?!The index is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index corrects towards the indicated trend line, we can look for the next short-term buying positions in Nasdaq. The Nasdaq being in the demand range will provide us with the conditions to buy it with a reasonable reward to risk.
While the world remained focused on the first week of the Trump administration, a relatively unknown Chinese startup shocked the tech industry last week by releasing an open-source AI tool. This tool, developed with significantly fewer resources and at a much lower cost than its American counterparts like ChatGPT, has managed to match and, in some cases, surpass its U.S. rivals.
The startup, DeepSeek, has gone even further by making its tool freely available for download. Only those who wish to use the company’s API, which allows seamless integration with existing applications, are required to pay a fee—amounting to just 3% of the cost of competing tools.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday imposing sweeping tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. He pressured these nations to curb the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants from Mexico and Canada into the U.S.—a move that could reignite inflation and hinder global economic growth.
In response, Mexico and Canada, two of the U.S.‘s largest trading partners, immediately vowed to impose retaliatory tariffs. China, on the other hand, announced that it would challenge Trump’s decision at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and take additional “countermeasures.”
Under three executive orders, starting Tuesday, imports from Mexico and Canada will be subject to a 25% tariff, while Chinese goods will face a 10% levy. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded by stating that Canada will impose a 25% tariff on $30 billion worth of U.S. goods starting Tuesday, followed by an additional $125 billion in tariffs three weeks later.
Trudeau warned that these tariffs would increase grocery and fuel costs for American consumers, potentially shut down auto assembly plants, and restrict the supply of nickel, potash, uranium, steel, and aluminum. He also urged Canadians to avoid traveling to the U.S. and boycott American products.
As investors looked for clarity from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, Wall Street was left uncertain, now anticipating that the Fed will likely keep rates unchanged until late in the year.