Us100
CHFJPY ON THE MOVETechnical Analysis:
CHF/JPY continues its bullish trajectory, trading above key moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day lines. The pair recently broke above resistance at 151.50, now turned support, with the next resistance zone at 153.00. Momentum indicators like RSI remain strong but not yet overbought, while the MACD confirms the upward trend. A sustained break above 153.00 could target 154.50 in the near term.
Fundamental Analysis:
The Swiss franc remains supported by safe-haven demand, while the Japanese yen is pressured by the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy. Despite minor adjustments to yield curve control, the BoJ’s dovish stance contrasts with Switzerland's relatively steady monetary environment. This policy divergence and risk sentiment dynamics favor CHF appreciation against JPY.
USDCHF GOING UPTechnical Analysis:
The EUR/USD is showing bullish momentum, breaking above key resistance levels. The pair is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming an uptrend. A bullish crossover in the MACD and rising RSI suggest further upside potential. Key resistance is at 1.10, with support holding strong at 1.085. A breakout above 1.10 could open the path toward 1.12.
Fundamental Analysis:
The Euro is supported by robust economic data, including better-than-expected PMI figures and hawkish signals from the ECB. Meanwhile, the USD is under pressure as the Fed signals a pause in rate hikes amid cooling inflation. Diverging monetary policies and improving sentiment in the Eurozone favor further EUR/USD gains.
EURUSD GOING UPEUR/USD: Why It’s Heading Higher
Technical Analysis:
The EUR/USD is showing bullish momentum, breaking above key resistance levels. The pair is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming an uptrend. A bullish crossover in the MACD and rising RSI suggest further upside potential. Key resistance is at 1.10, with support holding strong at 1.085. A breakout above 1.10 could open the path toward 1.12.
Fundamental Analysis:
The Euro is supported by robust economic data, including better-than-expected PMI figures and hawkish signals from the ECB. Meanwhile, the USD is under pressure as the Fed signals a pause in rate hikes amid cooling inflation. Diverging monetary policies and improving sentiment in the Eurozone favor further EUR/USD gains.
Keep an eye on upcoming ECB speeches and U.S. employment data for potential volatility.
AUDJPY NEXT STEPAUDJPY is falling towards these two red lines ;
the first line is obvious, the tough thing to forecast is what's happening after reaching this one, does it go back up before reaching the next one ?
For us, its should be a "head and shoulders" pattern, meaning some pretty smooth but sure descent towards lower prices, without going back up.
US100 Trade LogMarket Context:
- The CPI session’s top wick aligns with a 4H FVG rejection , signaling a high-probability short setup. Oscillators confirm exhaustion, supporting bearish momentum.
Trade Parameters:
- Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 minimum .
- Base Risk: 1% account risk for initial positions.
- Additional Risk: Two half-contract size positions added, bringing total risk to between 1% and 2% to capture extended targets if price runs higher.
Missed Entry:
- Ideal short entry at the 0.5 level of the FVG , confluenced with the daily Kijun resistance. Hesitation led to a missed opportunity.
Retracement Importance:
- Small retracements, while frustrating, are necessary to sustain upside momentum. They provide clean re-entry points for continuation trades.
Conclusion:
- Strategic use of added risk positions and focusing on high-probability zones like FVGs and Kijun levels is crucial for optimizing profits.
NASDAQ How to trade this Falling Wedge.Nasdaq is trading inside a Falling Wedge for exactly 1 month, since the December 16th 2024 High.
The current bullish wave has been rejected on its top but today is holding the MA50 (4h) so far.
The previous bearish waves that got rejected on the Wedge's top, gave a confirmed sell signal after the MA50 (4h) was crossed.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell below the MA50 (4h) and Channel Up (bullish wave).
2. Buy above the top (Falling Resistance) of the Falling Wedge.
Targets:
1. 20600 (symmetric higher lows trendline like January 2nd).
2. 21700 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is trading above its MA trendline. This favors slightly the bullish trend.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
! REALLY NOT SURE ABOUT THIS ONE ! GBPJPY FALLINGSince there are no indicators except for the RSI, it would seem logical with the current drawdown and divergence for the price to keep falling ;
however there's nothing sure about this, it is just an arrow showing the potential direction,
we'll update if we get more info
AUDJPY GOING DOWNWe almost had the first part (you can take a look at the blue arrow on the 3rd of January), and it indeed reached the exact price we wanted it to (red dotted line)
However it has come back up since then, which shows that there's still a high buying volume for this asset.
But at some point, it is to come down and break the first red to reach the second lower red.
We made two possibilities for you to get the scheme.
EURUSD GOING UPLow RSI + two consecutive accumulation areas means EURUSD going up ;
however the question is after this small rally, what s happening ?
That s the 1000$ question, the two yellow lines you see on the chart show that none of these schemes is more likely than the other one, we simply have no idea for now.
We'll have to wait for new elements and KL to determine that.
USDCHF TOWARDS THE SKYThere's not a lot of indications for this one, since there's no accumulation to reach.
However the low and divergent RSI gives us an idea of where the price is globally going, which is up.
Will add more information asap, when a new interesting KL or AA (accumulation area) gets created.
CHFJPY STILL NOT SUREOn one hand, it has de go back up to reach the high of the blue rectangle ;
on the other hand, it is well gone for a big descent, and it would not be crazy to think the hard blue KL is the actual low.
We'll have to be careful over the next few days because they'll be decisive regarding the pattern the curb is taking.
No matter what happens, it is to go up, the question is where s the entry ?
GBPUSD BACK UPAfter a liquidation by going that low, GBPUSD is ready to go back up.
The two blue accumulation areas attract the price higher, first at the middle zone then at the higher zone.
The hard blue KL under the current price shows a break under this level is tough to imagine, so there's really only one way and it is up.
GOLD MICRO ANALYSISAnd this is what the micro view looks like. If you've not seen our precedent post on the macro view, you should check it out so you get the global scheme of the move.
The red line has to be reached at some point over the next few weeks, maybe even days, because Gold has a "desert area" to cross : this is the area where there's no blue lines, which are basic KL.
What we believe is that when there 's no or not enought KL, the price moves way faster, hence the green drawing.
NASDAQ GOING UPAfter a some fake rallies, some fails and some real good forecasts, we're back with more energy and more confidence to try and offer you all the best signals.
The red dotted line that you see at the top is the price we're aiming for. As you can see yesterday's forecast (green drawing) was a little late but eventually pretty good.
We believe that US100 has to climb back to 22K asap to compensate for the US firms on a national level, and to compensate with the blue areas on the chart on a technical levels, which are super key levels supposed to hit again.
Anything is possible at and after 2:30 PM (London time), but keep in mind that there are more prices to reach above than below
US100 NASDAQ SHORTThe US dollar is broadly firmer, though the Japanese yen is proving a resilient ahead of the BOJ deputy governor's speech
Nasdaq slide as key tech stocks get hit
All three benchmarks are down for the last two weeks, with tech shares causing most of the damage
With the 10-year yield potentially getting to 5%, it’s going to be very hard for the equity market to really gain any meaningful traction here until there’s — at minimum — stability in interest rates
Interest rates rise? iN 2025 it will be possible:Inflation, signs of recession.