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NAS100USD: Are We Seeing a False Bullish Break?Greetings Traders, In today’s analysis, NAS100USD continues to follow bearish institutional order flow, providing an opportunity to capitalize on the current market narrative. While the overall trend remains bearish, recent price action has displayed a bullish break of structure. However, I interpret this as a false break of structure, supported by the following evidence: Key Observations: 1. Engineered Retail Resistance: Institutions have created a retail resistance zone with relatively equal highs. This formation entices retail traders to sell at the resistance level, placing their stop losses above it. These stop losses are viewed as buy stops by institutions, representing willing buyers at premium prices. Institutions capitalize on this by order pairing—selling their positions against the retail buy stops. 2. Institutional Order Pairing Logic: Large funds require opposing liquidity to fill orders efficiently without slippage. To achieve this, institutions manipulate the market by engineering liquidity through patterns such as resistance zones or equal highs. After selling at premium levels, institutions aim to buy back positions at discount prices, targeting sell stops and liquidity pools below. Trading Outlook: Given this institutional behavior, my interpretation is to anticipate further bearish movement . With institutions likely targeting sell-side liquidity at discount levels, I am focusing on the sell-side liquidity pool as the primary target for this setup. If you have any insights, questions, or analysis, feel free to share them in the comments below. Let’s collaborate and refine our strategies together. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
GBPJPY BEARISHGBP/JPY is displaying bullish momentum, driven by a breakout above a key resistance level, with strong bullish candles and minimal wicks signaling sustained buying pressure. Earlier in the session, a liquidity sweep below a prior low triggered sell stops, followed by a sharp rebound that indicates buyer accumulation. The pair is respecting an ascending trendline, confirming it as dynamic support, and trading above both the 50- and 200-period moving averages, with a golden cross further reinforcing the uptrend. Bullish divergences on the RSI and MACD highlight recovering momentum, while increasing volume during upward moves compared to lighter pullbacks suggests strong buyer dominance and the potential for further gains. + this can go two ways : reaching the first KL or the second one just under, globally the movement will be the same
Long
by edl75
EURUSD GOING DOWNEUR/USD appears poised for a bearish move, supported by key technical indicators and chart structures. Price action has rejected a significant liquidity zone, suggesting strong selling pressure and the inability of buyers to hold higher levels. A confluence of resistance from a descending trendline and the 50-day EMA strengthens the bearish outlook. On higher timeframes, a recent liquidity sweep at a key high has been followed by a sharp rejection, indicating trapped buyers and the potential for further downside. A break below the recent market structure low could trigger stop orders, accelerating the move toward the next major liquidity cluster. Watch for increasing momentum and volume as confirmation of this potential bearish shift. + responding to the liquidity rectangle, pushing down
Short
by edl75
NASDAQ BEARISHThe Nasdaq may face a correction in the coming hours, based on technical signals from the charts. The index is approaching a key resistance zone, coupled with an overbought RSI (Relative Strength Index), indicating potential short-term reversal. Additionally, a bearish divergence between price action and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) suggests weakening bullish momentum. Declining volumes on recent highs further point to reduced buying pressure. A test of the immediate support could accelerate the downside if this level is breached. + big liquidity level broken yesterday, looking for a correction
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by edl75
NAS100USD: Anticipating Temporary Bearish Order Flow?Greetings Traders, Today's analysis highlights significant bullish momentum in NAS100USD, driven by the heavy volatility following the CPI news release. Despite the bullish institutional order flow, there is potential for temporary bearish order flow. This could either serve as a brief retracement to meet specific objectives before continuing the bullish trend or, possibly, a full reversal of price action. While we must wait for further market confirmation, current conditions provide an opportunity to target the sell stop objectives highlighted on the chart. Key Observations and Confluences: 1. Institutional Price Delivery Insight: At present, price is positioned in a premium zone and has recently taken out Engineered Resistance Liquidity, where premium buy stops reside. Institutions often use this liquidity to pair orders by selling against these buy stops. Institutions, having sold at a premium, will aim to buy back positions at a discount (a process associated with profit-taking). Therefore, we anticipate price to move towards liquidity pools at lower discount levels. 2. Trendline Liquidity: The chart also reveals engineered trendline liquidity, a classic setup where retail traders buy along the trendline, leaving their stop losses below. Institutions view these stop losses as sell stops, representing willing sellers against whom they can close their buy positions. This makes these lows prime targets for institutional activity. The current evidence provides a strong foundation to anticipate bearish price action towards these liquidity pools, offering a strategic opportunity to align with the institutional narrative. If you have any insights, questions, or additional analysis, feel free to share them in the comments below. Let's collaborate and grow together as traders. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
9
NASDAQ: Buy near the 4H MA50.Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.360, MACD = 259.490, ADX = 43.763) as it remains within the medium term Channel Up. The recent bearish wave is correcting the uptrend towards the 4H MA50, which if technically holds, should give way to the new bullish wave. The 4H RSI is headed towards its S1 Zone, which is the buying level so you can time the entries acccordingly. Our target is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 22,000). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestingScope
US100 - 1H - Short Setup to $21,000 (Technical Analysis)The CAPITALCOM:US100 bounced from the upper side of it's wedge where it marked it's new ATH. On the way up we opened two gaps (red in the chart) which are still left to get closed. We also see a RSI divergence which implies we've seen the top for now and are heading lower (at least for the time being). Current targets would be the support at $21,184, then the trendline of the current wedge at around $21,000 and a bit lower the bigger support zone at around $20,600. If we break above $21,600 this short setup is denied. Target Zones $21,184 (Gap Close) $21,000 (Trendline) $20,600 (Bigger Support Zone)
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by LGNDRY-Capital
1
US 100 Trade LogUS100 Long Setup (1H) Trade Logic: - Entry: Long within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) located in the discount zone relative to this timeframe. Confluence Factors: - Bullish Momentum: The market is strongly bullish, with price action consistently breaking resistance and forming higher highs. - Relative Aggression: While the FVG is in a discount zone on the 1H timeframe, higher timeframes do not confirm the same, making this a relatively aggressive trade. - Supportive Context: Recent pullback aligns with the FVG, offering a potential continuation opportunity as buyers step in. - Risk-Reward: Minimum 1:2 RRR with a tight stop-loss of 50 points, ensuring disciplined risk management. - Target: TP1 at the next intraday resistance; TP2 near psychological levels like 15,500. Macro Context: - Market Sentiment: Strong risk-on sentiment in equities as major indices rally, supported by favorable economic data and dovish central bank tone. - Tech Strength: Nasdaq constituents leading the charge with inflows into growth and tech sectors, further reinforcing bullish momentum. - Volatility: VIX remains low, indicating stable conditions conducive to continuation of bullish trends. Additional Consideration: While this setup is aggressive, the bullish momentum makes it a calculated risk worth attempting. Keep stops tight and monitor if price fails to hold the FVG. Reassess if higher timeframe resistance levels come into play, suggesting a larger pullback.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Fondera
US100 Will Go Up From Support! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for US100. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 21,420.2. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 22,305.1 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by SignalProvider
1
NASDAQ consolidation until the CPI.Nasdaq (NDX) hit our 21650 Target that we set exactly 2 weeks ago (November 25, see chart below) and is now entering a consolidation phase (orange Rectangle): As long as the 4H MA50 holds, the uptrend will stay intact within this 3-month Channel Up. We believe that this consolidation is similar to the September 13 - 19 price action, which also started after a +6.80% rise and with the support of the 4H MA50, it resumed the rally and peaked on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we expect Nasdaq to stay ranged until Wednesday's U.S. CPI report and following that to resume the uptrend, targeting 22300 (just below the 1.5 Fib). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
NAS100USD: Is a Reversal Brewing in Bearish Territory?Greetings Traders! Today’s analysis highlights a fascinating setup on NAS100USD. While the market remains bearish overall, there are compelling signs suggesting a potential reversal. This could either lead to a minor retracement or evolve into a stronger, extended bullish trend. As always, we let the market confirm its intentions. Current Market Outlook: Price is sitting at heavy discount levels, having swept discount sell stops. This movement hints at the possibility of smart money entering buy orders against willing sellers. Remember, the narrative here is simple: buy in discount prices, sell in premium prices. Key Confluences: Rejection Block Support: Price is strongly rejecting a key rejection block, establishing a robust institutional support zone. Discount Level Alignment: Current levels are ideal for buying opportunities, provided confirmation aligns with the broader market narrative. Trading Strategy: I am closely watching for confirmation entries at these levels, with the first target being the premium buy stops above the 50% Fibonacci level (fair value). This zone offers an excellent area for profit-taking and aligns with institutional order flow. Let’s Collaborate! Have insights, questions, or analysis? Share them in the comments below. Together, we can dissect the market and make informed decisions! Kind Regards, The_Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The_Archi-tect
2
NAS100 - Nasdaq will welcome Santa Rally?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zones, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. In recent days, financial markets have experienced a notable influx of capital. According to a report by Bank of America, capital flows amounted to $8.2 billion into equities, $4.9 billion into bonds, and $3.0 billion into cryptocurrencies. This marks the largest four-week inflow into cryptocurrencies, totaling $11.0 billion. Capital inflows into U.S. equities continued for the ninth consecutive week, totaling $8.2 billion. Additionally, a $4.6 billion investment in small-cap U.S. stocks pushed the 2024 inflows to record highs. Over the 12 months ending in November, an average of 186,000 new jobs were created each month. On a monthly basis, the highest job growth was observed in healthcare, leisure, and government sectors. Employment in the transportation equipment manufacturing sector also saw a boost following the resolution of labor strikes. Recent economic data continues to highlight contractionary pressures and their effects on the U.S. economy. At first glance, November’s NFP employment report indicates a resilient and strong labor market, with the U.S. economy adding approximately 227,000 jobs. This growth was largely due to the recovery of jobs lost to recent hurricanes in the Southeast and the resolution of Boeing labor strikes, both of which had reduced employment figures in October. The October report was also revised upward to 36,000 jobs. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, while labor force participation declined. Despite this, unemployment remains relatively low, though it may rise in the coming months if contractionary pressures persist. This week, major events in global central bank policies are expected to take place. Dubbed by some as the “central banks’ decisive week,” it begins with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision. Key U.S. economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will play a pivotal role in shaping Federal Reserve policies. Investors are primarily focused on inflation data. The November CPI report is set to be released on Wednesday, followed by the PPI report on Thursday. These figures will serve as a precursor to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. Projections indicate that annual CPI may rise from 2.6% to 2.7%, while core CPI is expected to remain steady at 3.3%. If no stronger-than-expected data emerges, the Federal Reserve is likely to lean toward reducing interest rates, with the possibility of halting monetary easing in the January meeting. The December 2024 global economic outlook report by Fitch highlights rising inflation risks in the U.S., driven by stronger-than-expected consumer spending, upcoming tariff increases that raise import prices, and slowed labor force growth due to reduced net migration. Fitch forecasts that global growth will decline to 2.6% in 2025, a figure largely unchanged from its September report. However, this global stability masks significant shifts in the economic growth forecasts of major countries. U.S. economic growth for 2025 has been revised up by 0.5% to 2.1%, while the Eurozone’s growth forecast has been reduced by 0.3% to 1.2%. Similarly, China’s growth forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 0.2% to 4.3%. The persistent inflationary trends observed in recent months are unlikely to change significantly with the November CPI report. The CPI data, due on Wednesday, is one of the final and most important indicators ahead of the December 18 Federal Reserve meeting. It may influence FOMC members’ decisions on whether to reduce or halt interest rate cuts. Currently, there is a strong probability of a 25-basis-point cut in the upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, stated in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he has no plans to request the resignation of Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman. Trump emphasized that he does not intend to replace Powell and will continue to work with him. In recent years, financial and tech markets have witnessed remarkable shifts. One such change is the shift in focus from semiconductor companies to AI-related software firms. After a significant rally in semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA and AMD, market enthusiasm has now shifted toward software companies such as Snowflake and Palantir. This reflects a growing realization that AI’s true potential lies in its applications across industries, rather than solely in the hardware enabling it. Semiconductor firms were the initial beneficiaries of this AI boom, but the market is now gravitating toward companies implementing AI in practical and operational ways.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
NASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and OpportunitiesNASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and Opportunities The NASDAQ index continues to capture investor interest, buoyed by the strength of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, while navigating regulatory, economic, and geopolitical hurdles. The latest macroeconomic updates and Federal Reserve signals add further dimensions to the narrative shaping the index’s performance. Here’s an expanded analysis, incorporating fresh data and insights. --- Key Macroeconomic Updates Influencing NASDAQ Inflation and Sentiment - University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Actual 2.9% (Forecast 2.7%, Previous 2.6%) This slight increase in inflation expectations signals that consumer inflation concerns remain elevated, despite Federal Reserve efforts. Persistent inflationary pressure could temper optimism around rate cuts. - University of Michigan Sentiment Index: Actual 74.0 (Forecast 73.2, Previous 71.8) The stronger-than-expected sentiment reading reflects consumer confidence in economic resilience, which could support continued spending on technology and digital services, bolstering the NASDAQ index. Labor Market Insights - US Unemployment Rate: Actual 4.2% (Forecast 4.1%, Previous 4.1%) A modest uptick in the unemployment rate suggests a cooling labor market, potentially reinforcing the case for monetary easing. - US Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual 227k (Forecast 220k, Previous 12k, Revised 36k) Strong job growth underscores economic stability but adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's inflation battle. - US Average Earnings YoY: Actual 4.0% (Forecast 3.9%, Previous 4.0%) Wage growth remains steady, indicating ongoing consumer spending power but also signaling potential inflationary pressures. Federal Reserve Dynamics - Fed's Bowman: Progress on inflation seems to have stalled. This commentary reinforces market expectations of a more accommodative monetary stance to counter economic headwinds. - Short-Term Interest Rate Futures: A sharp rise post-jobs report indicates an 85% chance of a rate cut in December, up from 67%. Lower borrowing costs would directly benefit the tech-heavy NASDAQ, as growth stocks typically outperform in low-rate environments. --- Seasonal and Sentiment Factors Historical Seasonality December has historically been favorable for the NASDAQ, driven by: - **Seasonal Consumer Spending:** Electronics and digital services see a surge, supporting revenue for tech companies. - **Portfolio Rebalancing:** Institutional investors often position portfolios for growth into the new year. - **Optimism Around Innovation:** End-of-year announcements and advancements in technology further fuel investor enthusiasm. Investor Sentiment - The **Fear & Greed Index** remains at 53, leaning toward greed, signaling potential for continued short-term market gains. --- Revised NASDAQ Outlook Positives: 1. **Tech Momentum:** The AI-driven rally continues, with companies like Microsoft and Meta capitalizing on innovation and demand. 2. **Federal Reserve Support:** Increasing odds of rate cuts and gradual disinflation expectations create a favorable macro backdrop. 3. **Resilient Economic Indicators:** Strong labor market and durable goods data point to economic stability. Risks: 1. **Regulatory Headwinds:** Scrutiny over AI and antitrust issues may weigh on tech giants like Microsoft and Meta. 2. **Inflation Uncertainty:** Stalled progress on disinflation could delay aggressive monetary easing. 3. **Geopolitical Tensions:** Ongoing global supply chain disruptions pose risks to the tech sector. Conclusion The NASDAQ index is well-positioned to close the year on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand for technology, favorable monetary conditions, and consumer confidence. However, vigilance is essential as regulatory, geopolitical, and inflation-related risks remain prevalent. Key developments, including Federal Reserve decisions and corporate earnings, will be pivotal in shaping the index's trajectory into 2024.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate