NASDAQ The recovery has officially started.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up and with today's opening, it broke above the Lower Highs trend-line of February's Bearish Leg. Even though the confirmed bullish reversal signal technically comes above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we already have the early bottom signals.
First and foremost, the 1D RSI rebounding from the same oversold (<30.00) level where all major Higher Lows of the Channel Up did (August 05 2024, April 19 2024, October 26 2023). Every time the price reached its -0.5 Fibonacci extensions following such bottoms. Also each Bullish Leg tends so far to be smaller than the previous.
As a result, targeting a +24% rise (-3% less than the previous Bullish Leg) at 23500 is a very realistic Target technically, as it is considerably below the -0.5 Fibonacci extension.
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Us100
US100 SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
US100 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 19,765.3
Target Level: 19,601.3
Stop Loss: 19,874.3
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Bearish Alert: Nasdaq’s Downtrend May Deepen Beyond 5%Hey Realistic Traders, Will CAPITALCOM:US100 Bearish Trend Stop? Let’s Dive In....
On the H4 timeframe, Nasdaq continues to follow the bearish trendline and the EMA-200 . Both trend analysis tools clearly signal a bearish trend. The downtrend may persist as a rising wedge pattern has formed, followed by a breakout and a MACD crossover.
Based on these technical signals, I anticipate a potential downward movement toward the first target at 19,077. After reaching this level, a minor pullback is likely before the decline continues toward a new low at 18,544.
This outlook remains valid as long as the price move below the stop-loss level at 20,080
Besides technical factors, U.S. President Donald Trump still intends to implement new reciprocal tariff rates on April 2, adding further uncertainty to the market. This could limit growth potential and contribute to an inflationary environment by increasing the cost of imported goods. Given this uncertainty, we believe the market will continue to decline.
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Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Nasdaq.
US100 BEARISH FLAG|SHORT|
✅US100 is trading in a
Strong downtrend and
The price has formed a
Bearish flag pattern so
And on top of that the
Horizontal resistance
Of 20,000 is ahead so
We are super bearish
Biased and IF we see a
Bearish breakout we
Will be expecting
A further move down
SHORT🔥
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This RUT/NDX ratio may convince you to buy NASDAQ aggressively.Nasdaq (NDX) has been under heavy selling pressure in the past 30 days. This short-term pull-back however is nothing but a buy opportunity on the long-term, and this study shows you why.
The answer lies on the RUT/NDX ratio which shows that this may be the time to get heavier on tech. The use of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) is due to the fact it represents a wider array of companies. Naturally over the years (this 1M chart shows data since 2006), the ratio declines within a Channel Down as historically the riskier tech sector attracts more capital and grows more.
However there are instances where Russell gains more against Nasdaq. We are currently though at a time where this isn't the case as the ratio seems to be ready for decline following the completion of a consolidation that on previous fractals (March 2015, September 2008) was bearish, thus positive for Nasdaq.
As you can see, this movements can be grasped by the Sine Waves, though not perfectly, but still good enough to understand the cyclical pattern we're in, also with the help of the 1M RSI Triangles.
Nasdaq (which is represented by the blue trend-line) has started massive expansion Channel Up patterns following this unique signal given by the RUT/NDX ratio. The first was right after the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom and the second during the 2015/ 2016 E.U., VW and Oil crisis.
The key here is on the 1M RSI. The Triangle is about to beak to the upside and every time this happened in the last 20 years, it coincided with a pull-back on Nasdaq (blue circle) similar to the current one. What followed was massive rallies each time.
As a result, this could be an indication that even though the tariffs have rattles investor confidence lately, this is an opportunity for a strong buy position for at least the rest of the year.
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DAX Trade Log DAX Buy Setup with Ichimoku Confluence
Geopolitical tensions—especially the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe—continue to influence risk sentiment, while inflation and central bank policy remain in the spotlight. The European Central Bank’s more hawkish stance contrasts with fears of slowing growth in the Eurozone. Despite these headwinds, the DAX could see a near-term bounce, supported by technical signals:
1. Ichimoku Confluence : Price is testing the Kijun and the lower edge of the cloud, aligning with a daily pivot. A close back above the Kijun/cloud area suggests potential upside.
2. Volume Spike : Recent volume surge around this support zone may indicate bullish absorption—watch for follow-through.
3. Macro Backdrop : Although persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainties loom large, short-term volatility can present trading opportunities. Keep an eye on ECB communications and any unexpected developments in global tensions.
4. Risk Management : A 120-point SL (around 2% account risk) below the key support could help protect against false breaks. Targets include the top of the cloud or previous swing highs.
5. 8-Day Cycle : Day 2 in your cycle analysis suggests a potential upswing—confirmation will come if price holds above this confluence zone.
Stay vigilant, monitor news flow, and maintain discipline in your trading plan. This is not financial advice—always do your own due diligence.
NASDAQ: 4H MA50 broke. Time for a full recovery.Nasdaq is still bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.669, MACD = -426.120, ADX = 56.837) but crossed above its 4H MA50. The last time a bearish wave of this Channel Down crossed above the 4H MA50 was on August 9th 2024. It was achieved again after an oversold 1D RSI bounce and initially hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level and then peaked on the 1.382 Fib extension. The trade is long, TP1 = 21,500 and TP2 = 23,400.
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US100 - Uptrend in Motion with Key Support LevelsOverview:
The US100 is currently trading within a well-defined upward channel, forming higher lows and maintaining a strong bullish structure. The price action suggests that as long as it stays within this channel, the bullish momentum is intact. However, there are key levels to watch if the structure is broken. A break below the channel could lead to a retracement toward an imbalance zone, which may act as a strong support area. If this level fails to hold, a deeper correction could follow.
Uptrend and Higher Lows Indicate Strength
The market is making consistent higher lows, confirming the presence of an uptrend.
The price remains within the ascending channel, suggesting that buyers are in control.
As long as the channel holds, we can expect a continuation of the bullish move with higher highs
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Continuation Within the Channel
If the price continues to respect the channel structure, we could see further upside movement.
A bounce from the lower trendline of the channel would confirm strength and could lead to new highs.
Retracement to the Imbalance Zone
If the price breaks below the channel, it may find support at the imbalance zone.
This area has previously acted as a reaction point, and buyers could step in again.
A strong bullish reaction from this zone would provide confirmation for a potential move back up.
Bearish Breakdown Below the Imbalance Zone
If the imbalance zone fails to hold, selling pressure could increase.
This could trigger a deeper pullback, leading to a test of lower support levels.
Key Levels to Watch:
Channel Support – If price remains inside, expect continued bullish momentum.
Imbalance Zone – A critical area where price could find support if the channel breaks.
Lower Support Levels – If both the channel and imbalance zone fail, a larger correction could follow.
Conclusion:
US100 remains bullish as long as it trades inside the channel, with higher lows supporting the uptrend. However, traders should monitor the channel breakout, as a move below could lead to a retest of the imbalance zone. If buyers hold this level, the uptrend may resume, but failure to hold could open the door for a further drop.
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DOW JONES INDEX (US30): Pullback From Resistance
Dow Jones Index looks bearish after a test of a key daily/intraday resistance.
An inverted cup & handle pattern on that on an hourly and a strong
intraday bearish momentum this morning leaves clear bearish clues.
I think that the market can retrace at least to 41580 support.
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NASDAQ Most critical 4H MA50 test in 7 months!Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 11 2024 High. The price action since the February 18 2025 High was been the patterns Bearish Leg and like the August 05 2024 bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line, it was done on an oversold (<30.00) 1D RSI.
Now that the price has Double Bottomed and bounced, it came across today with a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) test. 7 months ago it was that test and eventual break-out that initiated Nasdaq's 4-month non-stop rise. Initially once broken, the first target was just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, you can get a confirmed buy signal once the index closes above the 4H MA50 and target 21450 (just below the 0.786 Fib).
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NAS100 - Stock Market Enters Downtrend?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for further buying opportunities in Nasdaq. A break of the channel ceiling will also continue the short-term upward trend in Nasdaq.
According to EPFR data reported by Bank of America, investors withdrew $2.8 billion from equity funds last week, marking the largest outflow of the year so far. Meanwhile, U.S. government bonds saw an inflow of $6.4 billion, the biggest weekly increase since August.
Scott Basnett, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, stated in an interview that there are no guarantees to prevent an economic recession. He welcomed the decline in stock markets, viewing it as a sign of a healthy market. Analysts believe this shift in tone—unusual for a Treasury Secretary who typically reassures economic strength—suggests an effort to prepare the public for a possible recession.
According to data from the Polymarket betting platform, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is currently estimated at 41%. Reuters reports that American households are increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook. However, the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to respond aggressively to a weakening economy, given growing concerns that the Trump administration’s trade policies could further fuel inflation.
These concerns were reflected in financial markets on Friday, as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed a decline in consumer confidence for March. Additionally, consumers now expect inflation to reach 3.9% over the next five years, the highest level in more than 30 years.
In an interview with Breitbart, Basnett emphasized the need to remain vigilant against persistent Biden-era inflation and expressed support for deregulation to lower costs. He also stressed that while tackling inflation, the government must also address affordability concerns. Additionally, he backed interest rate cuts to help reduce housing costs and auto loan payments.
This week will be packed with major economic events, creating a high-risk environment for precious metals traders amid ongoing geopolitical developments during Trump’s second term.
Central banks are back in the spotlight, as several key monetary institutions are set to announce their policy decisions in the coming days:
• Tuesday: Bank of Japan
• Wednesday: Federal Reserve
• Thursday: Swiss National Bank & Bank of England
Furthermore, a series of macroeconomic data releases could influence market sentiment, including:
• Monday: Retail sales & Empire State Manufacturing Index
• Tuesday: Housing starts & building permits
• Thursday: Weekly jobless claims, existing home sales & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting. Market participants will closely watch the Fed’s updated economic projections and Jerome Powell’s press conference for insights into future monetary policy.
According to a Bloomberg survey, economists anticipate two rate cuts by the Fed this year, likely starting in September. However, despite declining stock indices and rising recession concerns, Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance, avoiding any rushed rate cuts.
While consumer and business confidence has weakened, the Federal Reserve has limited flexibility to lower rates due to persistently high inflation indicators.
NASDAQ (1h) Golden Cross broke above the 3 week downtrend.Nasdaq has formed a Golden Cross on the (1h) time frame while also crossing above the Falling Resistance of the last 3 weeks.
This is a bullish reversal break out.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 20370 (the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the last high).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) as already been on a Rising Support, hence bullish divergence since yesterday.
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USTEC - Short-Term Pain, but...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈Long-term, USTEC has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in orange.
This month, USTEC has been in a correction phase, retesting the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong support zone.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower orange trendlines acting as non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #USTEC is hovering around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NASDAQ: Oversold at the bottom of 8month Channel Up.Nasdaq is oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 26.693, MACD = -501.840, ADX = 53.670), which is the most oversold 1D RSI reading since August 15th 2015. In the meantime, it touched the HL bottom of the 8month Channel Up, a bearish wave that looks much like July 2025. The bullish wave that followed topped on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. If candle closings are contained inside the Channel Up, we expect it to attract a lot of new buyers and initiate the new bullish wave to at least the same Fib. Long trade, TP = 23,400. A closing under the Channel Up, should test though the 1W MA100 (TP = 18,000).
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