Us100
FED VS MarketWow, isn't it amazing how high the SPX and other indices are right now? The rally from 4118 didn't quite create a solid base, but I truly believe that the market is heading even higher and showcasing the strength of the US market. Sure, there may have been a lack of volume during the rally, but that doesn't dampen my optimism at all. Despite the reports of inflation, I see this as an opportunity to protect myself as a trader with a huge hedge. It's exciting to be in the midst of all this uncertainty and potential!
Dow Jones Index (US30): Bullish Continuation is Coming?!
Does a price action on Dow resembles a cup & handle formation on a daily?
34000 - 34450 is a huge resistance - the neckline of the pattern that the index is currently approaching.
Its bullish breakout - a daily candle close above - will be a strong bullish signal
that will push the prices much higher.
Next goal will be 34950.
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NASDAQ Huge success, now targeting 16000!Nasdaq had a great run hitting our 15000 target after we called a buy on the exact bottom on Oct 26th (chart link in the end).
Now the price broke over the 4 month Channel Down, which on the greater scale turns out to be just a long Bull Flag, and is aiming at Resistance A and B.
In fact based on the fact that the current rally started when the 1day RSI bounced on the 33.30 Support and the 1day MACD formed a Bullish Cross on the exact same level as the January pattern, we expect the trend to follow a similar path with the 1day MA50 supporting from now on.
Buy again and target 16000 (Fibonacci 1.5 extension like the February 2nd top).
Previous chart:
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Nasdaq bull / bear cyclesNasdaq has seen some tremendous opportunities the past few months for swing traders. I want to put aside all the narrative and sentiment and focus only on the chart cycles I am seeing. Within a descending wedge formation we started to see a 3 week or so bull cycle to resistance of channel, followed by a slightly shorter bear run to support of forming channel.
This has expanded and contracted slightly through the move. Now we are at a tighter fortnight cycle of bull / bear momentum. Note how the formation was broken during October lows. And then once more recently hitting strong resistance from October highs, forming a clear double top formation.
The breakdown for me invalidated the pattern, which is why I was aiming for a short entry around or just above the arching resistance that had formed. I had some intraday scalps with very short term positioning which proved lucrative, but I could see from the expanding bond market that the move would run to or above the previous channel resistance. I entered short a little early average at 15108. I held through the spike thereafter with confidence that the bond market would pivot and continue down to new lows. By my estimates 2007 lows should be re-visited before any meaningful extended bull run is seen.
The 30yr bond auction went very poorly yesterday, and as a result bonds fell sharply, the move back up today was only retracement in my opinion. With the drop being an impulse wave, where, once retracement is over (I believe it is now over), we should see the wick filled and a continuation of the move down to new lows.
I am of the view that time in the market is more important than patterns and price action. Of course support and resistance should be strictly followed, with every attempt to only short at resistance and only buy at support. With this in mind my TP 1 for this trade will sit near October lows 14058 - 14100. If current cycles are followed this should happen 22nd-24th November. When this target is reached if we see a meaningful bounce on this and bond markets, then it could signal a triple bottom on nasdaq and bullish momentum could carry it back to around or just over 15k the following fortnight. Otherwise it could continue down to previous May breakout and gap fill down to 13965.
Of course, it all depends on other economic sentiment and events, I think its quite safe to say the fed will raise rates again in December by another 25bps following Powell's hawkish comments and recent consumer sentiment miss. Inflation is still not under control, and a pause will not bring it under control anytime soon.
I could still see the fortnight bull/bear cycle continue regardless of interest rates, the way the market structure has become in recent years a big crash in a short time looks unlikely. However, a black swan event such as an escalation of tensions in the Middle East could of course capitulate an already vulnerable market. Having said that, we should never trade on hope or fear, and we should always be vigilant and steadfast in our strategy, taking profits when it hits targets, or indeed exiting the trade early if there are clear signs that the strategy will not play out as expected.
If in fact the market continues up beyond 15380 I will be looking to close in loss. As you will see from my bias I do not think this will happen. I will also look to taper my position when in profit if there are any signs that the continuation of the bearish trend will not play out.
As always DYOR.
I am not a financial expert, and this is not financial advice. Only risk what you can afford to lose, don't get greedy. And don't let losing trades run you down.
Stay safe and spread love not hate.
US100 crash ready to starthello dear trader and investors
It’s actually already starting - and it has the potential to cause a depression. And the Federal Reserve has been forced to print billions of dollars in fake money, which is only exacerbating the situation.
But once the dust settles, I strongly believe that by 2025, gold will be valued at $5,000 per ounce, silver will be valued at $500 per ounce, and Bitcoin will be valued at $500,000. Why? Because people's faith in the US dollar will be destroyed.
On the other hand, Bitcoin has emerged as the people's currency. Because it’s decentralized, secure, and free from government manipulation. As a result, more and more people are turning to Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against inflation.
Dollar is dying and stock is not a good place to invest in this economic crisis
good luck
mehdi
Are we about to see a new era of expansion for the tech sector?This is the Nasdaq to Dow Jones ratio (NDX/DJI) on the 1W time-frame (with the RSI on the 1M), which offers very interesting conclusions as to where we are on the large scale of things, which can be particularly helpful now as the shorting bets have been increased to the most in 5 years.
The recent pull-back since the July Highs, have made market critics call for a stronger correction. for the NDX/DJI pair, this has just been a consolidation. Going back to 2000, the tech sector witnessed a 'biblical' Bear Cycle as the Dotcom Bubble popped. It wasn't until November 2021 that the NDX/DJI ratio reached this 0.47 All Time High (ATH) Resistance but again as we saw, the inflation crisis happened and had a 1 year Bear Cycle.
Now the ratio is almost back to the ATH Resistance and just formed a 1W Golden Cross, which is a very bullish pattern, the first since October 2007. What's really interesting is that this consolidation on a 1W Golden Cross is quite similar to the July 1991 pattern. That fractal was basically the expansion phase that led to the Dotcom Bubble burst. The 1M RSI sequences are similar between the two fractals.
This chart shows us that such expansions take place inside Channel Up patterns. The 1W Golden Cross and a potential break above the 0.47 Resistance, may be the signal telling us that the technology market is starting a new era of expansion and it won't be surprising even fundamentally. Among other technological advancements and inventions, we are in the era of A.I. and that can be the vehicle to grow the market to unprecedented highs just like the internet was in the 1990s fractal that led to the 2000 Dotcom bubble.
Do you think the time to invest in tech long-term is now?
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US100 ~ November TA Outlook V2 (4H Intraday)CAPITALCOM:US100 chart mapping/analysis V2.
Always good practice to revisit your chart(s) after couple days with a refreshed perspective, to determine whether your initial TA has complimented developing price action, or your drawings need to be updated/overhauled.
Revisit updates:
Re-adjusted ascending parallel channel (green line) + highlighted middle trend-line (white dashed) to emphasize potential resistance of breakout price action
Extended descending trend-line (light blue dotted) to connect pivot points from Nov 2021 Dec 2021 peaks
Remaining TA drawings have held up so far, TBC.
U.S. Stock Market Sees Prolonged Winning Streak Amidst Powell's In the U.S. stock market, investors have witnessed an impressive continuation of the longest winning streak in two years, as major indices, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite, have posted modest gains. This sustained rally has been fueled by various factors, including expectations that interest rates may have reached their peak. However, all eyes were on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the hope for insights into the duration of the current restrictive monetary policy.
Despite the high anticipation surrounding Powell's speech at the Federal Reserve's Division of Research and Statistics centennial conference, the central bank chief did not delve into monetary or economic policy issues at this particular event. Investors now await his appearance on another conference panel on the following day, where they hope to gain more clarity on the Federal Reserve's stance and its potential impact on the market's future trajectory.
Corporate earnings have been another central focus in the stock market, with a substantial percentage of S&P 500 companies surpassing earnings estimates. Notable mentions include Warner Bros Discovery, which reported revenue in line with expectations but faced a significant drop in its shares due to a decline in global subscribers. On the other hand, Roblox Corp exceeded expectations, with a remarkable 20% surge in bookings and daily active users, leading to a notable increase in its shares.
Later in the trading day, all eyes were on Walt Disney, which was expected to unveil its latest quarterly results. The spotlight turned to CEO Bob Iger, who was likely to address questions regarding the company's strategy to revitalize its entertainment offerings. This comes as Disney grapples with challenges in its traditional television offerings and the need for substantial growth in its streaming services.
From a technical perspective, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator provided a BUY signal, indicating positive momentum in the market. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained in a neutral position, signifying a degree of market stability.
As the stock market maintains its upward trajectory, potential scenarios could see prices reach levels around 15,818, should the current trend persist. However, a reverse scenario could see prices reverting to 14,805. With various economic and corporate developments at play, investors are poised for an eventful and dynamic period in the U.S. stock market.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
US100 NAS100 Technical Analysis And Trade IdeaIn this presentation, we undertake a thorough analysis of the NASDAQ US100, concentrating on the prevalent bullish sentiment within the 1-month (1M) and 1-week (1W) timeframes. Significantly, our charts reveal that the US100 is currently approaching a critical resistance level, marking a pivotal juncture. Throughout this discourse, we delve into the fundamental principles of technical analysis, encompassing essential elements such as assessing the existing market trend, price dynamics, market structure, and other crucial facets of technical analysis. As we proceed through the video, we meticulously examine a potential trading opportunity within the NAS100.
It is crucial to emphasize that the insights shared in this content are intended exclusively for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Engaging in foreign exchange market trading carries a substantial level of risk. Therefore, it is imperative to judiciously incorporate robust risk management strategies into your trading plan to effectively navigate these challenges.
NASDAQ: Short term sell opportunity.Nasdaq hit our TP = 15,000 as since our last idea (chart at the bottom) we took full advantage of the whole LH leg of the Channel Down. With the 1D technical outlook now just slightly bullish (RSI = 56.567, MACD = -24.590, ADX = 32.703) despite the seven day rally, we are looking towards a short term pullback that will test the buying strength and investor commitment towards a long term rise.
Consequently we are going short here, on the RSI rejection on R1, targeting the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (TP = 14,750).
See how well our prior idea has worked:
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NDQ, NDX, Nasdaq, Us100 setupIf price should trade above my Take profit 15209.56 - 15210.69 before 9:30am NY time on the 6th of Nov 2023, then I favor a market reversal to take profit below. But if market doesn't do that, I look for a direction which I believe the market should be going. Idea will be updated frequently.
This is a daily chart
NASDAQ About to test the MA50 (1d). Break out and rejection planNasdaq is posting the 3rd bullish leg inside the Channel Down pattern on the 1D time frame.
It is about to hit the MA50 (1d), above which all prior Lower Highs have been priced near the 0.786 Fibonacci level.
The medium term trend remains bearish until this level gets broken.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy if the price crosses over the 0.786 Fibonacci level.
Targets:
1. 14650 (near the 0.382 Fibonacci level, where both Channel top rejections made the first drop).
2. 15330 (Resistance 1 and previous Lower High)
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) just formed a Bullish Cross. The previous two were formed half way through the rises, so it is possible this one is stronger, hence our bullish break out option.
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Notes:
Past trading plan: