Us100
NAS100USD: Anticipating Bullish Shift in Range-Bound MarketGreetings Traders!
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we observe price consolidating within a range. While the overall sentiment remains bearish, I anticipate a bullish reversal aligning with projections from yesterday's analysis.
Key Observations
Discount Price Accumulation:
Price is currently trading at discount levels where institutions have consistently targeted sell stops. These stops are being order-paired (bought against), signaling institutional accumulation in preparation for a move toward premium prices.
Engineered Liquidity Above Resistance:
The Resistance Zone has been identified as Engineered Liquidity, where buy stops (stop losses, pending orders, etc.) reside. This liquidity pool is a prime target for institutions to sell off their positions against willing buyers.
Institutional Profit Targets:
Institutions that accumulate long positions at discounted levels will look to book profits in premium zones, aligning with our strategy to target liquidity pools above the current resistance.
Trading Strategy
Entry Zones:
Focus on buying opportunities at key institutional support levels in the current range, awaiting confirmation of bullish price action.
Targets:
The primary objective is the liquidity pool above the Resistance Zone, as institutions are likely to drive price into this area for profit-taking.
For further insights into the rationale behind this bullish bias, refer to yesterday’s detailed analysis.
Yesterdays Analysis:
Stay vigilant and patient for confirmation before executing trades and make sure to do your own research before investing.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
NASDAQ: First 4H Death Cross since September is a Buy Signal!Nasdaq is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.062, MACD = -70.200, ADX = 29.762) as it is on a downtrend since December 16th, almost 1 month. Technically this downtrend is the bearish wave of the medium term Channel Up. Last Wednesday the index formed its first 4H Death Cross since September 10th 2024 and interestingly enough, instead of bullish, it was a buy signal then. As the current bearish wave is now almost at the bottom of the Channel Up, this is technically a HL, thus the most efficient buy entry on the short term. The September bullish wave peaked on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension before a pullback under the 4H MA50 again, so we now turn bullish on Nasdaq, aiming again for the 1.236 Fib (TP = 22,500).
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NAS 100 Counter-Trend Opportunity: Possible Bounce from Support 📊 The NAS 100 looks overextended right now. It’s tapped into a key liquidity pool support zone, and I’m eyeing a potential counter-trend trade back up to equilibrium. ⚖️ After that, we could see another sell opportunity if the price action aligns. 🚨 *This is not financial advice.*
NAS100USD: Are We Witnessing the Start of a Bullish Takeover?Greetings Traders!
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, the overall trend remains bearish; however, compelling signs suggest a potential shift toward bullish price action. Here are the key confluences supporting this outlook:
Key Observations:
1. Higher Highs Established:
Recent price action has formed higher highs, indicating a potential shift from breaking bearish structure to targeting bullish objectives.
2. Transition to Buy-Side Curve:
Significant structural breaks suggest a move away from the sell-side curve into the buy-side curve. This transition redefines key bullish order blocks created during the sell-side curve as reclaimed order blocks, now acting as strong institutional support zones.
Reclaimed Order Blocks Explained:
These occur when bullish order blocks, previously hedged during sell-side curve are reclaimed by institutions. The down candles within these zones signal areas where institutions are likely to initiate new buying opportunities.
Trading Strategy:
Entry Zones:
Look for buying opportunities within reclaimed order blocks, which now function as robust institutional support zones.
Targets:
Focus on liquidity pools located at key highs, double tops, or failure swings. These areas serve as institutional profit-taking zones where buy stops reside, offering favorable order pairing opportunities.
By aligning with institutional behavior and following the transition to the buy-side curve, we can strategically capitalize on potential bullish momentum. Stay vigilant and await confirmation before entering trades.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
NASDAQ One more low to go.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a short-term Channel Down since the December 16 2024 High. So far it has made two Lows and each one bottomed after the 4H RSI made Double Bottom as seen on the chart.
Right now the 4H RSI just turned oversold below 30.00, so technically we still have room for one last Low before we see a rebound. We expect the next Bullish Leg to target at least 21300, which is marginally below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, the level that formed the previous two Lower Highs of the Channel Down.
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NASDAQ (US100): Bullish Momentum Poised for New HighsThe NASDAQ (US100) continues to display strong bullish momentum, having recently broken above its previous higher high. The price has since retraced to test this level as support, aligning with the structure of a proposed ascending channel. With no bearish signals currently evident, the index shows potential to establish a new high.
*Trade responsibly and implement proper risk management strategies.
nvdia still in strong uptrendHello
NVdia still has a good uptrend, so as it is shown on my chart now we are in the middle of its 3rd wave what should we look for:
- A nice break out of its hight level (around 160) then we can buy more
- be aware if the red line is broken then we can consider that is a beginning of reversing down
good luck
NAS100USD: Bullish Reversal on the Horizon?Greetings Traders, and welcome to the new year! I wish you all success and prosperity in the year ahead.
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we observe that the market has been delivering bearish institutional order flow, influenced by high-impact economic releases such as Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. Despite this bearish momentum, I am anticipating a potential bullish reversal due to several key factors.
Key Observations:
1. Rejection Block Signal:
A rejection block at the lows indicates that institutions have been entering buying positions. This resulted in a rejection of the previous low, signaling bearish weakness and suggesting the possibility of a reversal.
2. Bullish Break of Structure:
Price recently broke a high during its upward movement, signaling bullish strength. This shift suggests that institutions may now be favoring upward price delivery.
3. Mitigation Block as a Key Zone:
Price is currently reversing toward a key institutional area known as the mitigation block.
What is a Mitigation Block?
This zone represents an area where institutions previously entered sell orders during the bearish trend. As price has since moved upward, these sell orders are now in loss. Institutions retrace price to this area to mitigate their losses and reinstate new buy orders to align with the prevailing bullish narrative.
These zones are pivotal and form the basis of support and resistance concepts.
Trading Strategy:
After confirmation, I will be looking for buying opportunities at the mitigation block, targeting the liquidity pool above. This aligns with the narrative that institutions are scaling into bullish positions and preparing for upward price delivery.
Stay observant and strategic as we analyze this potential shift in market structure. Feel free to share your thoughts or questions in the comments below, and let’s capitalize on the opportunities ahead!
Kind Regards,
The Architect
NAS100 on Pause: Focused on Scalping Until NFP Shifts the Market👀 👉 The NAS100 has been stuck in a range and lacks a clear trend at the moment. Currently, I only see potential for scalping opportunities. With NFP coming up tomorrow, I’m leaning toward staying on the sidelines and waiting to see if a US100 trend develops next week, which could present some profitable setups for the NASDAQ. ⚠️ This material is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ: The buy zone is under the 1D MA50.Nasdaq is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.510, MACD = 54.540, ADX = 27.946) as it got rejected yesterday back to its 1D MA50. This trendline is holding since September 12th and during this 4 month period is sustained a very steady uptrend. This is so far the bullish sequence with the slowest pace inside the 2 year Channel Up. This lack of strength along with the fact that the 1D RSI formed a pattern that during these 2 years was followed by a dip under the 1D MA50, suggests that it might be best waiting for the price to hit the 1D MA100 before placing a long term buy again. Once this condition is met, we will go long and aim for the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 24,350), which was always hit when a Channel Top was priced.
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US100 Will Go Up! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for US100.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 21,249.90.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 22,102.42.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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US100 Will Go Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for US100.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 21,549.6.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 22,260.2 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
NASDAQ rebounding strongly on its 1D MA50. 1 month rally ahead.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a 4-month Channel Up and hit last Tuesday its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) exactly on the Channel's bottom. Even though it marginally broke it, the 1D candle closed exactly on the 1D MA50, causing a strong bullish Friday reaction.
As today opened equally green, we technically view this sequence as the start of the new Bullish Leg of the pattern, which may be confirmed today if the 1D RSI breaks above its MA (yellow trend-line), as both previous Bullish Legs did.
Our Target is 22600, which represents a +9.00% rise, the minimum a Bullish Leg had within this Channel Up.
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NAS100 - Nasdaq, no interest in Santa Rally!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the supply zone will provide us with the conditions to sell it.
In the annual rebalancing of the Nasdaq Index, the shares of Tesla, Meta Platforms, and Broadcom saw a reduction in their weighting, while Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet gained more weight. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, this marks the second time in roughly a year that index regulators have adjusted the allocations for its largest members.
The rules governing the Nasdaq 100 are designed to prevent a small number of companies from exerting excessive influence on the index. These rules have become increasingly relevant in recent years due to the extraordinary growth in market value of major companies and advancements in artificial intelligence. Although the Nasdaq 100 is weighted by market capitalization, certain limits are enforced if a few companies grow disproportionately large.
This recent rebalancing may have been prompted by a rule that allows regulators to reduce the weighting of the top five companies to below 40%, with other adjustments made accordingly. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, remarked, “At times, the Nasdaq 100 has to take such measures because it becomes a victim of its own success; the largest stocks in the index have grown significantly faster than others.”
This year, the shares of major technology companies have risen sharply due to advancements in artificial intelligence. Broadcom, a key chip supplier for Apple and other tech giants, reached a market value of $1 trillion. Tesla also surged by around 75% following the U.S. presidential election.
In the Nasdaq 100, Apple’s weighting increased from 9.2% to 9.8%, while Nvidia rose from 7.9% to 8.4%. Microsoft and Amazon also gained weight, and Alphabet saw a slight increase. However, Broadcom’s weighting fell from 6.3% to 4.4%, Tesla’s dropped from 4.9% to 3.9%, and Meta’s decreased from 4.9% to 3.3%.
Currently, over 200 exchange-traded products, with combined assets totaling approximately $540 billion, track the Nasdaq 100 or its variations globally. Athanasios Psarofagis of Bloomberg Intelligence noted, “This highlights the increasing influence of index providers on market dynamics.”
Last year, thanks to the resilience of the economy, strong earnings reports, a 100-basis-point rate cut by the Fed, and the leadership of the Mag7, the S&P 500 recorded 57 new all-time highs (ATHs).
On Friday, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, speaking at the Maryland Bankers Association, outlined the conditions needed for rate cuts and discussed the broader impacts of the new tariff plan proposed by President-elect Donald Trump. Barkin downplayed the immediate and direct effects of the tariff program. Markets do not anticipate any rate changes in the upcoming Fed meeting.
The private and non-farm payrolls report (ADP) set to be released on Wednesday, along with Thursday’s weekly jobless claims data, could offer a clearer picture of the U.S. labor market ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI for December, scheduled for release on Monday, could provide further insights into the overall performance of the U.S. economy, as the services sector accounts for over 80% of GDP.
The minutes of the December Fed meeting will also be published on Wednesday, but they are unlikely to have a significant impact on markets as updated economic forecasts have already been released.
The November Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a sharp increase in job creation, with 227,000 new jobs added to the U.S. economy. This contrasted with just 12,000 jobs added in October, marking the weakest job growth since December 2020. If the December report also indicates that October’s weakness was temporary, some investors might conclude that even two rate cuts in 2025 would be excessive. This could contribute to the continued strength of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies.
The key question is whether the stock market, given expectations of fewer rate cuts, will continue its downward trend or recover with signs of robust economic performance.
NAS100 Price ActionHello Traders,
Our Supply Demand Analyzer indicator has identified fresh zones that price has yet to test. These untouched zones present high-probability areas where price action is likely to respond—potentially moving from a strong demand zone to the next key supply zone.
Additionally, I’ve highlighted two types of breakout patterns:
1. Curve Breakout – An early signal indicating a potential breakout.
2. Channel Breakout – A more confirmed breakout pattern for added confidence.
You can leverage these supply and demand zones to plan long entries effectively.
Pro Tip: Always prioritize risk management before executing your setups.
Wishing you profitable trades and continued success.
Happy Trading!
NAS100 Bull BiasCurrent Market Structure:
1. Trend Analysis:
• The price is still within a well-defined ascending channel.
• The recent price action shows a pullback toward the channel’s midline after hitting resistance near the upper channel boundary.
2. Key Levels:
• Resistance:
• 21,400–21,500: Price is near this key zone, which aligns with previous swing highs. A break above this could confirm further bullish momentum.
• 21,800: The next significant resistance, where a potential rejection could occur.
• Support:
• 21,200–21,300: Immediate support zone near the current price. A break below may lead to a retest of the channel’s lower boundary.
• 20,766 (blue line): Major support that aligns with previous lows and the base of the channel.
Possible Scenarios:
1. Bullish Case:
• If price holds above 21,300 and breaks through the 21,500 resistance zone, there’s a strong likelihood of a move toward the next resistance at 21,800 or even the upper boundary of the channel at 22,200.
• Buy confirmation: Look for bullish momentum candles or a retest of 21,400–21,500 as new support.
2. Bearish Case:
• If the price fails to break 21,500 and falls below 21,300, we may see further downside toward 20,766 (blue line).
• A break below 20,766 would invalidate the bullish structure and potentially lead to a deeper pullback toward 20,400–20,321.
Indicators to Watch:
• Trendline Interaction: The price is near the channel midline. A bounce or rejection here will determine the direction.
• Volume: A breakout above resistance zones requires strong volume for confirmation.
• Momentum Indicators (e.g., MACD/RSI): Watch for divergences or crossovers that might indicate a shift in momentum.
Trading Plan:
1. Long Setup:
• Entry: Above 21,500, after a breakout and retest.
• Target: 21,800, then 22,200.
• Stop Loss: Below 21,300 (midline).
2. Short Setup:
• Entry: Below 21,300, after rejection.
• Target: 20,766, then 20,400.
• Stop Loss: Above 21,500.
Conclusion:
The market remains in an ascending channel, favoring bullish bias unless 20,766 is broken. Monitor price action at 21,300–21,500 for confirmation of direction.