$US100 Another Bulls rally ends the sell off?
This Friday we met the 0.5 Fib retracement level from the last breakout.
Wall street snapped on its 9 week winning streak.
Mixed with both fear and hope to number of expected rate cuts in the current year of 2024, recent commodities price had shown re-incarnation followed by increasing tension in regions including Mid-east, Korea, and Ukraina.
Major AI stocks that carried the market throughout 2023 had cooled off a bit during the first week of Jan. But, is this really the end?
All eyes are on the US inflation data for further cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outloook. Forecasts suggest consumer prices likely edged up by 0.2%. We could assume the service sector laid off number of their employees to maintain their high-productivity rate continue from last year. With this expectation, 6 rate cuts may seem naive option to blindly follow. Although, I expect market to move up for the first three days just because of the false hope of dovish fed speech planned for this Thursday.
Us100
NAS100Bounced off 16200, which was last a support in DEC 2023 and a resistance (High) in NOV 2023. Therefore level of significance
4H
* Bullish engulfing candle of the low
- doji followed and a possible hanging man
- dive deeper for more info
1H
* Bounce 3 times at 16425 : which usually is the beginning of an expected breakout
- there's a potential 4th touch
- next directional move will determine our stance
- close above 16250, could be a change in direction
- close below 16200 with a rejection (new high) of this level will be continuation to the downside.
15Min
* compact candles, from impulsive break.
- will impulsively open
Verdict
- The possible trade there is highly risky, bad RR and just placed with no expectation
- WILL NOT BE TAKING THE TRADE
- Waiting for better information on the market
US100 NASDAQ Technical Analysis and Trade Idea NAS100Sharp Retracement in NAS100: Opportunity on the Horizon?
Eyes are laser-focused on the NAS100 after it slammed into a key resistance level. The current aggressive pullback sets the stage for an intriguing dynamic ahead of the NFP data drop later today. A strong dollar boost (or unexpected weakness) could significantly impact the index, making this data release a potential swing point.
With such a sharp retracement already underway, I'm eyeing a potential long entry as the price plunges towards a crucial support zone. In the video, we dissected the trend, price action, market structure, and other technical essentials to build a comprehensive picture.
Remember: This analysis is purely for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Do your own due diligence before making any trading decisions.
NASDAQ Hit the Channel's Top. Mid-term correction expected.Nasdaq (NDX) hit (and marginally broke above) its November 2021 All Time High (ATH), completing the expected Megaphone pattern we shared with you on November 16 (see chart below):
Last Thursday (December 28) the index hit the Higher Highs trend-line that started on the August 16 2022 High and can be treated as the top of a Channel Up pattern. The key here is the 1D RSI, which is developing a Channel Down, i.e. Bearish Divergence, similar to the July 19 2023 High.
As a result, it is highly likely to see a good medium-term pull-back, which within the Channel Up pattern has been around -8.50% on average. Such a decline would approach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Our target is 15550.
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NAS100There isn't much I can say or do.
This is a missed trade from my eyes, it followed what my alternate view from US30 showed. It just happened earlier.
Right now any trades I can get from here will not be the most optimum RR but will still be worth the risk just probably not scalp traders.
It is heading for 16600
* 3 touches up, 3 touches down. In the channel its been in
* It broke the channel and retested
* continued downwards
* rejected 16865 (Showing the direct, downwards)
* wait for opening to get last confluence before looking for sell entries
TP1 = 16760
TP2 = 16680
TP3 = 16600
NASDAQ: Breached the 4H MA50. Sell signal.Nasdaq just crossed on the current 4H candle under the 4H MA50, which has been the short term Support since December 8th. Even though it turned neutral on its 4H outlook (RSI = 45.004, MACD = 31.260, ADX = 51.152), 1D remains bullish (RSI = 65.645) so a potential decline will serve as a technical pullback inside the seven week Channel Down.
The 4H RSI is already on a Bearish Divergence much like it was on the last Bearish Leg of November and a candle close under the 4H MA50 will validate the sell signal. Our target is the bottom of the Channel Up on an expected -2.88% decline (as the previous one) and potential contact with the 4H MA200 (TP = 16,480).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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⚡️US100 CMC TRADING ⚡️ RISING WEDGEUS100 has formed a rising wedge pattern, and it is prudent to exercise patience for confirmation of the breakout before considering a short entry. There is a notable potential for the formation of a correctional leg, retracing back towards or below the recently highlighted key level within the context of an extended bearish trend.
US100 Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for US100.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 16759.6.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 18070.7.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Nas100Just an update into the "trade" if we had taken it. It is an okay trade a 5/10 according to my trading plan. This is still good for those scalpers looking for quick trades with quick bucks.
We just broke the high but not by much, which means there are sellers trying to regain from the close of last week. If you had taken this trade move SL to either BE or just enough in line with your trading plan.
NAS100High 16862.3 (Dec 2023) last reached in Nov 2021
Bullish since 2023 started
- lots of retests (bearish channels and fake-outs), prepare for it.
16698 - 16843 = straight channel
- both lower end and higher end have been tested more than once therefore looking like a waiting moment
Go down to 15Min you'll see the candle tell a story
- the last 2 to touch the lower part of the channel (the bear has been engulfed by the two that follow)
- then there's a hammer which shows end of bearish momentum, but price gets stuck in a box and closes in that box.
- Higher lows and heading to higher highs
- Zoom out you will see a mini bullish momentum that started out of the straight channel.
* I placed a possible trade but WILL NOT BE TAKING IT, it does not follow my RR which is a set rule in my trading plan to be 1:3 or more anything less and we are punishing ourselves.
Nasdaq (US100) The latest analysis of Nasdaq in 2023
Hi guys
The latest analysis of Nasdaq in 2023 (keep in mind)
We do not have an analysis next week, the analysis will start again from the second week of 2024
I hope the analysis helped you and you can get great profit from the market
And kick up a storm in 2024
NASDAQ Long-term Rising Wedge top approaching.Nasdaq / US100 is getting close to the top of the Rising Wedge pattern that started in August 2022.
The Triangle pattern formed inside displays similar features with the one tha peaked on February 2nd 2023.
That formation eventually pulled back to the 1day MA50 and 0.5 Fibonacci level.
Sell and target 15850 (expected contact with the 1day MA50).
Previous chart:
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Can the MAGNIFICENT 7 outperform once more?We have seen the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvdia, Meta, Tesla) underperform on this rally since the October Low relative to the rest of the Nasdaq index (NDX). The former can be seen on the left chart while the latter on the right. This goes so far against the aggressive nature of the Magnificent 7 (M7), which have outperformed Nasdaq on all previous rallied by at least +50%.
In fact the M7's first major rally (2016 - 2018) rose by +150% while NDX's by +95%. The second major rally (2019 - 2021) registered +363% for MA7 and 'just' +185% for NDX. If there is any progression between them, we can argue that on M7 the rallies increase by a constant of (0.41) while on NDX by (0.51). Of course the sample isn't big enough for solid conclusions. But there is a Higher Lows trend-line on both that is driving this logarithmic growth. Especially for M7, it has been touched on all corrections.
As a result, a modest target estimate for both could be the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which for M7 is 600.00, while for NDX 27500. Indeed those seem remarkable from the levels we stand currently but the projections can get even more inflated if we follow the 0.41 and 0.51 progressions respectively, which indicate that M7 could rise up to +511% (767) from the recent market bottom, while Nasdaq up to +279% (39700).
In any event, do you think the Magnificent 7 will start to outperform Nasdaq again after November - December's pause?
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US100 H4 / POSSIBLE RETRACEMENT UNTIL THE PRICE 15735 ✅Hello Traders!
This is my perspective for US100 H4. NASDAQ just set a new ATH (All Time High), and now I expect a retracement until the price of 15735. A very strong move this week. In case of confirmation, it would be a good opportunity to execute a short trade.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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NASDAQ Hit the ATH but has one more push to give.Nasdaq (US100) hit yesterday the 16772 All Time High (ATH) level, reaching in the process our 16680 short-term target as shown on our December 11 call (see chart below):
The dominant pattern on the 4H time-frame is a Channel Up and the price is trading on its middle. As long as the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) supports, any pull-back is a buy opportunity for at least one more push marginally above the 5.0 Fibonacci extension, as it happened on the November 14 pump. Our target is 17300.
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NASDAQ One opportunity to target 17300Nasdaq is trading inside a Channel Up.
The current Rising Wedge which is dring the price on the current bullish leg resembles that of October 27th - November 7th.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Sell below the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 17300 (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension which was the target top of the mid November rise).
2. 15700 (Support 1).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) sequences among the two bullish legs are identical, confirming the bullish sentiment towards the 1.618 Fibonacci.
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NAS100 US100 Technical Analysis London Open / NY OpenThis video provides a detailed analysis of the NASDAQ. Presently, it has reached a robust resistance level on the weekly timeframe. The market appears quite stretched, presenting a potential counter-trend trading opportunity around the London Open. If missed, there might be another chance around the New York Open later today. Throughout the video, we delve into essential technical aspects such as price action, market structure, and the prevailing trend. It's crucial to note that this content is purely educational and should not be interpreted as financial advice.