US100 Index (NASDAQ): Bullish Outlook Explained
On the today's live stream, we discussed US100 Index.
The market started a correctional movement after it set a new higher high, respecting 15280 level.
The price was trading with a bullish flag pattern.
The resistance of the flag was broken yesterday.
It will most likely trigger a bullish continuation.
Next goal - 15200
For entries, consider a broken resistance of the flag.
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Us100
NASDAQ: Hasn't yet completed its technical pullback.Nasdaq has been pulling back since the June 16th High, which was a HH on the Channel Up pattern, but this sequence isn't yet completed. The 1D time frame remains technically bullish (RSI = 62.049, MACD = 275.090, ADX = 32.676) but the price hasn't yet reached neither the bottom of the Channel Up nor the 4H MA50.
We remain short targeting that level (TP = 14,600) where we will turn bullish again (TP = 15,250) unless the 1D candle closes under the 4H MA50, in which scenario we will re-sell and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 14,300).
The 1D RSI however made a hit and rebound on the HL trendline that is in effect since December 28th 2022, so it is possible to see a rebound without going lower, so in that case only buy after the R1 breaks and target the R2 (16,000).
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NASDAQ Two sell opportunities and a common buyNasdaq hit the MA50 (4h) today and crossed over the short term Channel Down as well, but the candle closed back inside the Channel and under the MA50.
This is a sell indication and unless it closes above it, we expect a test of the MA200 (4h) given the fact that the MA100 is already broken.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price or at Resistance (1).
2. Buy on the MA200 (4h).
Targets:
1. 14550 and 14600 respectively (hit on the MA200 4h).
2. 15285 (Resistance 2 and Highs of March 29th 2022 and more recently June 16th 2023).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is on a Rising Support, indicating a Bullish Divergence in contrast to the price's Channel Down. Attention is needed as this may indicate a bullish reversal for the index, so careful with shorting above Resistance 1.
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Notes:
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NASDAQ: Breakout of Channeling, Sign of Bull Run Ahead?Here's a Technical outlook on NASDAQ!
Fundamental Drives
-Easing Inflation Data ( CPI data is 6.5% lower than the prior month's data of 7.1%)
-Possible Slower Rate Hike in the future or Stop hiking interest rates in the upcoming months by the Fed
Price Action Analysis
NASDAQ has already breakout of the upper trendline with an impulsive candlestick. After the breakout of the upper trendline, the index kept creating higher highs and higher lows on Daily Timeframe. The Price Movement above the Exponential Moving Average ( EMA ) of 200 also confirms the bullish trend. The MACD Indicator made a golden cross, signifying a possible upside movement in the long run.
All other explanations are presented on the chart.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/Support area.
Support the channel by smashing the rocket button and sharing your opinions in the comment below!
"Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the NASDAQ"
SUNDAY SESSION (NASDAQ)I have started the Sunday Sessions again and want to go back and use these videos for referencing and staying persistent.
NAS100 Summary
- Waiting for market open
- Break out the box will confirm our short term bias
- Retest at the different significant areas will give us long term demand
- Smaller and more trades are the aim with this week and how we move till the month ends
Nasdaq 4hour = as predict on high,Nasdaq go down ,now...above green arrow when you see buy pinbar on 1h,4h,daily chart ,dont fear pick buy SL=pinbar low ok?
If you have old sells,you must hedge them now ,Nasdaq upper target is 16000 even 21000(see weekly chart Fino 161%)
advice=70% looking for buy,,,be carefull on sell=dangerous
wish you win
NASDAQ Final pull back pending unless the 1day MA50 breaks.Nasdaq / US100 hit the top of the long term Channel Up and Resistance A (March 2022 top) and got rejected.
Based on the previous Higher Highs, the rejection should form a Channel Down / Bear Flag.
According to that, there is one final pull back pending to 14730. Buy it and target 15500.
If anyhow the price crosses under the 1day MA50 or closes the 1day candle under the 0.786 Fibonacci level, sell and aim at the 1day MA100 that is unchallenged since March 13th.
There return to buying, which is also the bottom of the long term Channel Up, and target 15500.
The RSI's Rising Support can be used as a great additional indication of a buy (hold) or sell (break) inside this long term Channel Up.
Previous chart:
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US100This is where my head is and this is what I'm seeing could happen. The past week I've been monitoring my progress for the past 6 months and it's been fair but I've been slacking on posting and keeping record.
So I want to try harder to eliminate the things I already do on a daily basis and just post more for records and sharpening my edge.
Dow Jonex Index (US30): Top-Down Analysis & Trading Plan
Dow Jones Index is testing a peculiar zone of confluence on a daily:
we see a perfect intersection between a horizontal support and 382 retracement
of the last bullish impulse.
Analyzing 4H time frame, I see a falling wedge pattern.
To catch a pullback with a confirmation, I suggest looking for a bullish breakout of the resistance of the wedge. 4H candle close above will confirm a violation.
A bullish continuation will be expected to 33970 / 34040 levels then.
Alternatively, a bearish breakout of the underlined blue zone will push the price lower.
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NASDAQ WANTS TO RETURN---- Hello everyone, today I will share an US100 analysis. My last analysis at this index was a big success. You can find it on my profile if you care... So, at the moment this boy wants so return the last highest points like 16500-16400 but the 15400 levels can resist the new rise. Let's see which aim's gonna happen...
--- Do your own risk analysis and take responsibility!!! Stay healthy, goodbye .
US100 BUYAccording to the analysis of the Nasdaq index. There is a high probability of a decline. The price reached a strong resistance level at 15,200. This resistance can be seen on the daily chart. Also, when it reached this area, it formed a strong double bottom pattern. With the formation of very negative candles confirming the great pressure of the sellers until the index declines. good luck
Capitalizing on Market Resurgence: A Promising Long Position on As today's market landscape evolves, astute traders recognize the potential for profitable opportunities. With a comprehensive analysis of the US100 (NASDAQ) on the 4-hour timeframe, a compelling case emerges for considering a long position. This article will explore the pertinent factors and recent developments that bolster the bullish outlook for US100.
Tech Sector Resurgence:
The US100 index, comprising top technology companies, has been witnessing a resurgence in recent times. Amidst the global economic recovery and increased digital reliance, tech giants have been at the forefront of innovation and growth. Positive earnings reports, product launches, and expanding market presence contribute to the overall strength of the sector and signal a potential upward trajectory for US100.
Supportive Fiscal Policies:
The US government's commitment to economic stimulus measures, coupled with accommodative monetary policies, has acted as a catalyst for the tech sector's growth. Increased government spending, infrastructure initiatives, and tax incentives have the potential to drive further expansion and boost corporate earnings, thereby favoring US100's upward momentum.
Technical Analysis:
Examining the US100 on the 4-hour timeframe reveals encouraging technical indicators. The presence of bullish chart patterns, such as higher highs and higher lows, along with the potential breakout from key resistance levels, suggest the possibility of a sustained upward move. Traders leveraging technical analysis tools, such as moving averages and oscillators, may observe bullish signals that support the case for a long position.
Positive Market Sentiment:
The prevailing market sentiment plays a vital role in shaping the direction of indices like US100. With an overall optimistic outlook and growing investor confidence, fueled by positive economic indicators, the appetite for riskier assets like equities remains high. This sentiment creates a conducive environment for US100 to thrive and potentially experience upward price movement.
Conclusion:
In light of the ongoing resurgence in the tech sector, supportive fiscal policies, favorable technical indicators, and positive market sentiment, a long position on US100 on the 4-hour timeframe appears compelling. However, it is essential to exercise caution, implement appropriate risk management strategies, and stay informed about any unforeseen events or market developments that may impact the trade. By capitalizing on these factors and monitoring the market closely, traders have the potential to benefit from the upward trajectory of US100 and secure profitable gains.
Please note that trading involves inherent risks, and it is advisable to consult with a financial professional or conduct thorough personal research before making any investment decisions.
US100 Will Move Lower! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for US100.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 15046.9.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 14790.2 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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US100 Index (NASDAQ): Bearish Move From Key Level
NASDAQ Index is retracing from a key daily resistance.
After the test of structure, the price broke and closed below a support line of a rising wedge pattern on 4H.
It may trigger a further decline.
Goals: 14900 / 14780
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NASDAQ: Correction aiming at the 4H MA200.Nasdaq reached the R1 (15,300) last week, a highly important benchmark as it is the March 2022 Top. Being overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 71.117, MACD = 398.240, ADX = 42.100), the current correction comes as a natural consequence. The target is the bottom of the three month Channel Up. Ideally we aim at the 4H MA200 (TP = 14,600), which has been previously tested and held as Support on May 4th and April 25th.
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NASDAQ Rejection on March 2022 High gives a strong sell signalNasdaq got rejected exactly upon touching the 15285 Resistance for the first time since the High of March 29th 2022.
This is a strong sell signal and can be confirmed after the RSI (1d) crosses under the MA line.
The long term pattern is a Channel Up since the beginning of March and the MA50 (1d) has been intact since March 15th, which makes the index exceedingly overbought.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell after the RSI (1d) crosses under the MA (white line).
Targets:
1. 14300 (Channel Up bottom and near Support 1).
2. Extend to 13520 only if we close a (1d) candle under the MA50 (1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is printing a pattern similar to the tops of February 2nd and March 31st. Both reached the 1.618 Fibonacci level, which was our target on our last Nasdaq call (see chart below).
2. If we do break below the MA50 (1d), the MA100 (1d) could be a valid target as it has been untouched since January 20th.
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Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JUNE 19, 2023Fed's Comments Weigh on Market Sentiment, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Finish with Declines | Daily Market Analysis
Major Events:
-USA - Juneteenth Celebrations Commence
-Eurozone - ECB's Lane and Schnabel Deliver Speeches
-Eurozone - ECB's Schnabel Speaks
On Friday, the S&P 500 experienced a decline in its closing value, primarily influenced by market heavyweights such as Microsoft. This downward movement was triggered by remarks made by two Federal Reserve officials, which significantly tempered the optimism surrounding the central bank's anticipated conclusion of its aggressive interest rate hike measures. The market reacted to these comments, resulting in a negative impact on the overall performance of the S&P 500.
S&P 500 daily chart
In a similar vein, the Nasdaq also concluded the week with a decline, although both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 maintained levels close to their 14-month highs. This downturn can be attributed to economic data released during the week, revealing a deceleration in inflation. The market's focus on this inflation slowdown overshadowed any concerns pertaining to potential further interest rate hikes, thereby influencing the downward trajectory of both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.
Nasdaq daily chart
Following the US central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, there were indications of a potential half-percentage-point increase in borrowing costs by the year's end. Nevertheless, traders are anticipating a different outcome, as suggested by CMEGroup's FedWatch tool. It suggests that there is an expectation for the Federal Reserve to either pause rate hikes or potentially even lower rates in December, subsequent to an anticipated 25-basis-point rate hike in July.
Effective Federal Funds Rate
Attempting to dampen the prevailing optimism, Federal Reserve policymakers expressed caution on Friday. Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that core inflation was not declining as anticipated, while Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated his comfort with further rate increases, as inflation had not yet reached the desired trajectory of 2%.
The recent market rebound can be partly attributed to the anticipation of heightened Chinese demand. This is a result of stimulus measures implemented by Chinese authorities to bolster their struggling economy.
Despite the Federal Reserve signaling a pause in its rate hiking cycle and the European Central Bank (ECB) implementing a 25 basis points rate hike last week, there is a growing belief that we may be approaching the peak of rate increases. However, it is widely acknowledged that a decrease in interest rates is unlikely in the near future.
Notably, the Bank of Japan deviated from the trend by maintaining its current policy settings last week, seemingly disregarding the fact that core inflation has reached its highest level in four decades.
Looking ahead, market attention will shift to the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England in the coming week. Both central banks are expected to follow the lead of the ECB and raise rates by 25 basis points.
GBP/USD daily chart
The British pound had an impressive performance last week, with a substantial surge of 1.9% against the US dollar, reaching year-to-date highs at $1.2848. This upward momentum resulted in GBP/USD breaking through both trendline resistance originating from the high at $1.4250 and resistance at $1.2767 on the weekly timeframe. Currently, the pound is positioned at 14-month highs against the US dollar, setting the stage for a potentially significant week ahead. Market expectations revolve around the possibility of additional 100 basis points (bps) of rate hikes, further contributing to the positive outlook for the British pound.
US Dollar Currency Index
On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is anticipated to encounter difficulties in surpassing the 103.00 level and reaching the 104.00 range. Barriers in the form of averages around the 102.00 and 103.00 levels are impeding a substantial ascent for the DXY. Conversely, the mid-101.00 range is becoming oversold, posing a dilemma for those considering short positions.
Meanwhile, gold prices remained relatively stable on Monday as investors eagerly awaited insights from a series of Federal Reserve speakers and testimonies scheduled throughout the week. These upcoming events are expected to provide valuable guidance on monetary policy, potentially influencing the trajectory of gold prices in the market.
XAU/USD daily chart
As the United States observes a public holiday, thin trading volumes are expected in the metal markets on Monday. Furthermore, the upcoming testimonies from Federal Reserve officials, particularly Chair Jerome Powell, later in the week, may discourage significant market movements and promote a more cautious approach to trading.
Throughout the upcoming week, investors will closely monitor various economic indicators and key speeches. These indicators include preliminary building permits and housing starts, Q1 current account data, existing home sales, and Markit's preliminary manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMIs).
Moreover, market participants will pay close attention to speeches from members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including Bullard, Williams, Bowman, Barkin, Bostic, and Mester. The insights provided by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, as well as speeches from Cook and Jefferson, will also play a significant role in shaping market sentiment and direction. These speeches have the potential to offer valuable perspectives on economic conditions, monetary policy, and potential future actions from the central bank.
Short PositionsThe Market Last Week Did A Rejection From The Monthly Fair Value Gap Also Has Taken Equal Highs in Liquidity, We Saw On Friday That The Price Broken To The Down Side So We Expect On Monday And Tuesday A Retracement Then Continue dropping In Next Days.