NAS100 Analysis: Key Levels & Bearish Trade Setup📊 NAS100 Analysis and Trade Idea | Key Levels & Bearish Bias Explained 📉
Dive into a detailed analysis of the NAS100 (NZ 100) with a focus on key support zones, retracement levels, and a bearish trading bias. Learn how to identify overextended price movements, imbalances, and potential short setups using the daily and 4-hour timeframes. Perfect for traders looking to refine their strategies in indices trading! 💡 💬 Share your thoughts and trading ideas in the comments below!
Us100
NASDAQ 4 more months before next correction.Nasdaq (NDX) has been rising non-stop with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as its Support since it first broke above it in March 13 2023, following the 2022 Inflation Crisis Bear Cycle.
This continuous period of growth has been built on a prolonger Bearish Divergence based on the 1W RSI, which has been on Lower Highs since June 05 2023. It is not the first time in recent history that the index has seen this pattern, as in the last 10 years we have had 2 periods of similar growth.
The 2014 - 2015 phase came to a sudden end in the first week of January 2016 after having marginally topped above the 4.0 Fibonacci extension. The 1W RSI Bearish Divergence eventually kicked in and the price dipped below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), while an RSI below 40.00 formed the bottom.
Similarly, the 2018 - 2019 phase got hammered in early February 2020 after topping very close to the 4.0 Fib ext, again sharply declining below the 1W MA100, finding support exactly on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). We need to point out that this was a (technically) exaggerated price collapse though due to the COVID lockdowns.
As mentioned above, we are facing again an RSI Bearish Divergence and if the price action follows the previous two periods that both, amazingly enough, lasted for 742 days (106 weeks) from the first RSI High, we should be expecting a technical peak around June 23 2025 (exactly 4 months from now) near a 4.0 Fibonacci extension at 23500.
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US100 Is Bullish! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for US100.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 21,588.3.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 22,205.6 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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NASDAQ Approaching the ultimate 4hour MA200 buy entryNasdaq / US100 is trading inside a Channel Up, which is currently on a pullback.
This correction is approaching the pattern's bottom which happens to be on the 4hour MA200. The last two such contacts have been buy opportunities.
Also the 4hour RSI is oversold at 30.00 and the last two times it was on this level, they were again buy opportunities.
Buy and target the upper Resistance at 22230.
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NASDAQ: Opening selloff is a buy opportunity.Nasdaq remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.351, MACD = 161.240, ADX = 29.408) despite today's selling early into the session. This indicates that relative to the bullish long term trend, this correction is a buy opportunity, especially as the index hit its 4H MA50. This happens to be at the bottom of the 20day Channel Up, a pattern potentially identical to the December 10th low of the Channel Up. We are long, expecting a new +3.80% rise (TP = 22,700).
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NASDAQ The 3 Phase of its Bull Cycle.Nasdaq (NDX) had a strong closing last week, rallying aggressively after cementing the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. As the market will stay closed today on Washington's Holiday, it is a good opportunity to take the time and look at the bigger picture.
Nasdaq's whole Bull Cycle so far since the late 2022 market bottom, can be categorized into 3 separate Phases of Growth. Right now we are naturally on the 3rd and as you see, compared to the previous Phases, we are on the 2nd accumulation of the Phase. This has led on a strong rally of at least +22% that completed each Phase.
Each Phase has two such accumulations and the 2nd is what makes the Channel Up peak and then correct back to the 1D MA200 (red trend-line). Since the final accumulation rally of Phase 1 has been +25.78% and the one of Phase 2 +22.13%, we may have a -3.50% decrease rate between each Phase rally. Assuming this to be the case this time around too, we may be looking for a +18.60% rally at 24000 to complete Phase 3.
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Is the NAS100 Setting Up for a Reversal? Here’s My Game Plan!👀 👉 In this video, we break down the US100, which appears overextended after pushing into a key weekly high. A significant retracement could be on the horizon this week. I’ll walk you through my trading strategy, covering breakout trades and trend continuation setups. 🚨 *Not financial advice.
NAS100 - Nasdaq is setting a new ATH!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the marked trend line, which is also intersecting the demand zone, we can look for further buying opportunities in Nasdaq.
At the start of the week, the U.S. dollar strengthened significantly after President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. He also stated that any country imposing tariffs on American products would face reciprocal tariffs from the U.S. Later, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his congressional testimony, emphasized that the central bank is in no hurry to implement further rate cuts. Additionally, data from the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January came in higher than expected, further supporting the dollar.
Although the dollar experienced a slight correction on Thursday and Friday, these factors, combined with a strong non-farm payroll report for January, led investors to anticipate a rate cut of only 30 basis points for the year. This outlook is more hawkish than the Federal Reserve’s own forecast of a 50-basis-point reduction. In other words, traders in financial markets have fully priced in just a single 0.25% rate cut by December.
Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, revealed in an interview with CBS’s Face The Nation that he meets regularly with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He stressed that these meetings are not intended to influence interest rate policy and that Powell’s independence is respected, although the President’s views are still conveyed.
Hassett also pointed out that long-term yields have declined, with a 40-basis-point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, indicating market expectations of lower inflation.
Retail sales data showed a 0.9% decline following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in December. Out of 13 reported categories, nine recorded declines, with the largest drops observed in automobiles, sporting goods, and furniture stores.
Following a tense week filled with impactful economic news, the upcoming week is expected to be quieter and shorter, as U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Presidents’ Day.
Key economic events for the week include the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index on Tuesday, the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting, and U.S. housing starts and building permits data on Wednesday. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be released. Finally, Friday will see the publication of preliminary S&P Flash PMI reports and existing home sales data.
US100 - Strong uptrend will probably continueThe Nasdaq 100 has demonstrated remarkable strength in its recent uptrend, pushing to new highs above 22,100. However, the current price action suggests the market may be slightly overextended in the short term, making a pullback to the marked support zone around 21,800-21,900 a potential opportunity for more favorable entry points.
Given the overall bullish market structure and momentum, any retracements should be viewed as buying opportunities rather than trend reversals. The upward trajectory remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows, suggesting that after a healthy pullback, the index could continue its ascent toward new highs above 22,300. Traders should watch for price action confirmation and potential bullish setups around the marked support level.
NASDAQ Massive Resistance breakout targeting 23000.Nasdaq / US100 is trading inside a Channel Up, which is testing today its Resistance, the previous higher high of the pattern.
When this took place duringt the previous bullish wave, the price stayed supported by the 1day MA50 and reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
Buy and target 23000.
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NAS100USD: Retracement to Target Sell Stops Below Support ZoneGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, while the market is currently showing bullish momentum, there are clear signs that we may experience a retracement toward the downside. This move would likely target the discount sell stops below the illustrated support zone, providing an opportunity to align with institutional order flow.
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
Institutional Resistance Zone: A strong order block has formed, creating a significant resistance level that price may struggle to break through. This order block, coupled with the Fair Value Gap (FVG) beneath it, strengthens the bearish case. These two institutional resistance zones suggest a higher likelihood of a retracement.
Premium Price Zone: Price is currently trading in a premium range, a favorable area to monitor for potential selling opportunities upon confirmation.
Liquidity Target : Our primary target is the discount sell stops resting below an engineered support zone. This zone is a key draw on liquidity, where we anticipate significant institutional interest.
TRADING PLAN:
Entry Strategy : Wait for confirmation before entering short positions at the current premium price level.
Targets : Focus on the liquidity pools below the support zone, particularly the discount sell stops, as these represent the main draw on liquidity.
Patience and precision are crucial. By following institutional clues, we can effectively position ourselves for high-probability trades.
Happy Trading!
The Architect 🏛📊
NASDAQ: Ready to break out of consolidation and aim for 24,600Nasdaq is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.119, MACD = 45.480, ADX = 25.617) as it is trading sideways for the last 2 months. The 2 year Channel Up is intact and such consolidation patterns have broken out aggressively in the past to the new HH. As long as the 1W MA50 is supporting, the long term bullish trend will stay intact and we can aim for a total of +43% price increase (TP = 24,600) from the last HL, a -4% drop rate from the last one.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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NSDQ100 Consolidation capped at 21820 levelThe NSDQ100 (USTec) index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. However, since reaching an all-time high on 24th December 2024 the NSDQ100 index price action is consolidating in a sideways trading range.
The key trading level is at 21400, which is the current swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 21400 level could target the upside resistance at 21820 followed by the 21950 and 22130 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 21400 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 21240 support level followed by 21940.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US100 Trade Log - CPI Pre-ShotUS100 long ahead of "CPI release" , pre-shot long for Asia session.
- Entry at "1H Kijun" and deep into "15m FVG" , aligning with pre-triangle accumulation.
- Structure is "hyper discretionary" but leans into my bullish bias.
- "Max pain: 2%" , treating this as a CPI momentum trade.
- If price respects the level, expecting an upside expansion. If not, I eat the loss.
NAS100USD: False Breakout & Institutional Sell ModelGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we observe a recent bullish shift in price action; however, this appears to be a false break of structure rather than a genuine bullish continuation. The market behavior suggests a classic liquidity raid, clearing buy stops before setting the stage for a potential bearish continuation. Let’s break this down in detail.
KEY OBSERVATIONS
1. Liquidity Raid & Displacement:
Price aggressively pushed above the engineered trendline to clear liquidity resting above it. Following this raid, we observed a strong displacement toward the downside, signaling that smart money likely distributed sell orders against the buy stop liquidity.
2. Premium Price Zone:
Price is currently positioned within a deep premium range, a high-probability zone for institutional traders to initiate sell positions. This premium alignment strengthens the case for further bearish movement.
3. Rejection Block as Resistance:
The market is reacting to a rejection block, which serves as a critical institutional resistance zone—the last line of defense for bearish momentum. This reinforces our bearish bias and offers a potential entry area.
TRADING PLAN
1. Entry Strategy:
Wait for confirmation at the rejection block to ensure a high-probability entry.
Focus on short opportunities in line with institutional order flow.
2. Target Zones:
Aim for discount liquidity pools resting at lower levels. These areas are prime targets for institutional traders to offload positions and take profits.
Conclusion:
By recognizing the false break of structure and understanding the liquidity dynamics at play, we align our strategy with the institutions’ intentions. Patience and precision will be key in capturing this opportunity.
Stay focused and trade smart.
The Architect 🏛️📊