Fed sets the rates. Rates guide treasury yields. Fed remains data dependent. Incoming data creates nuanced shifts in yield spreads. The September jobs report revealed 254,000 jobs added, significantly exceeding expectations of 147,000, with August figures also revised upward. This strong report, along with the JOLTS data from earlier in the week, indicates that...
After #InterestRates were cut people were expecting a furious wave of buying, this has not come into fruition. Recent events: 2Yr Yield rallied substantially. 10Yr #Yield bottomed when we called it, has not run as much as it's shorter term counterpart. We're close to inversion again! Colored areas = POTENTIAL Inverse Head & Shoulder = BOTTOM. Worth noting, ...
The major macro news during the previous week were posted nonfarm and unemployment figures in the US for September. The nonfarm payrolls significantly beated market expectation, by reaching the figure of 254K, while unemployment rate dropped to the level of 4,1% from 4,2% during August. The markets are now convinced that the Fed will slow down rate cuts till the...
I am now closing out my long term investment on US30! I have banked 8,800 PIPS profit (26.40% ROI pre leverage) on this investment. We have now reached Wave 5 target, meaning sooner or later the market should reverse. Congratulations to everyone who got into this investment from my free analysis & was patient enough to hold onto this for the past year! Close out...
What an amazing last day to the month! Gold dropped as predicted down to our $2,640 target which I have now closed out in profit. This here is what I am looking at tomorrow; Option 1: Gold now slowly and steadily climbs back up towards TP1 of $2,660. Option 2: Price drops even lower, doing a deep liquidity grab around our grey $2,590 zone.
The inflation measured through the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index showed signs of further decrease in August. The Index was standing at the level of 2,2% on a yearly basis, which was a bit lower from market expectations. The US Treasury yields eased after the release of data, bringing the 10Y US benchmark to the level of 3,75% as of the end of the week....
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against basket of other six major currencies, extends its losses for the 5th consecutive week in a row, hovering below 102 points during the U.S. regular hours on Monday, August 19. Over the past week, Gold spot (XAUUSD) has topped $2500 per ounce psychological high also, minting new all...
When price reaches Wave IV, around $2,610 region I'm looking at 2 possibilities; 1. Sellers slow down & buyers come in again, ready to push Gold towards 1 more new ATH. 2. Sellers smash through Wave IV target & carry on dropping down long term.
A month ago (August 21, see chart below) we argued why the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) would go lower with the Fed having no choice but the cut the Interest Rates: Well the Fed did it and cut the rates not just by -0.25% but -0.50%, initiating the new cut Cycle. Now let's look at the US10Y's price action on a smaller time-frame, namely the...
Although markets were divided on whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps or 50 bps at their September meeting, still, the Fed brought some sort of surprise by cutting interest rates more aggressively, by 50 bps. Considering Fed's dual mandate, to keep inflation at targeted levels and a stable jobs market, the analysts are now noting that, with the latest...
The US inflation data, posted during the previous week, clearly showed that the inflation in the US is slowing down. It is still above the Fed's target of 2%, but it opens the space for the Fed to cut interest rates. Markets are almost sure that the first rate cut will occur at September's FOMC meeting, which is scheduled for September 19th. The market positioned...
First Target 72 USD; then, the last leg down will start, maybe it will not go past the lows but that will be the real capitulation and where I'll be ready to buy.
Lets draw few parallel lines. Looks like cross of green supports shows start of the party and crossing red resistances means music isn't playing anymore. Could be coincidence. Looks like green support is coming. If we pierce it could be bullish. Unfortunately this time is different because of inversion. We will see.
Silver is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its descending channel If the drawn upward channel is maintained and its valid failure is not achieved, silver's upward path will be possible up to $29 If silver rises and falls within the specified supply zone, we can look for silver sell position
Friday was the major trading day on the US financial markets, after the release of jobs data for August. The US nonfarm payrolls came weaker than market was expecting, which implied market higher volatility. The nonfarm payrolls came at the level of 142K, while the market was expecting to see 160K for the month. On the positive side was a modest decrease in the...
IEF is a longer maturity, longer duration play on the US Intermediate Treasury segment. The fund focuses on Treasury notes expiring 7-10 years from now, which have significantly higher yield and interest rate sensitivity than the notes that make up our broader 1-10 year benchmark. IEF`s average YTM is significantly higher than US-T Aggregated benchmark's. Of...
There are several factors that can drive gold prices up in long term. Some of the key factors include: 1. Global Economic Uncertainty: Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty or market volatility. Investors tend to flock to gold as a store of value when traditional investments like stocks and bonds are perceived as risky. 2....
After Powell`s the “time has come” for the Fed to pivot, and the latest PCE data, markets were adjusting their expectations for the level of Fed's rate cuts in the coming period. The Julys PCE data came surprisingly lower from market expectations, of 2.5% on a yearly basis, compared to 2.6% expected by markets. At the same time, investors are considering both...