Everyone is talking about yields inverting and the recession that follows it. Here I am going to do a quick rundown on how to actually use this information to your advantage.
It is not the yields INVERTING that is cause for concern. This is only the first step of a potentially long process. It is when yields start STEEPENING that there is real cause for concern....
Alarm in the markets: a part of the US interest rate curve is inverted that has not been in 16 years
US five-year bond yields rose as much as 10 basis points to touch 2.64%, outperforming those on 30-year bonds.
Receive a cordial greeting, In Spain on 03/30/2022
Sincerely, L.E.D.
In the current high inflation environment we are in and with the Rus-Ukr war pushing energy and other commodity prices higher and higher, we can all agree yields on bonds have every right to move way higher then we have been seeing the past few years.
The peak of the 'Tamper-Tantrums' back in November 2018 (Seen with black arrow) we can see the 10 year yield was...
Following weekly chart
Cup & handle formation, RSI is supporting the formation.
This is a clear confirmation indeed, let's see.
I mostly follow handle target. It's 2.423
- BUILDING CONSENTS, ANZ business confidence, DATA released for the New Zealand dollar this week. BUILDING CONSENTS A very good DATA came. But BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA came with a very bad DATA. According to the MARKET SENTIMENT, a DEMAND may come to NZDs this week. Also, the Japanese yen is following the market sentiment as there is no special data release...
technical say 2 scenario possible(if high break it can go upper) ,,,, soon or late it must touch 2% area , but after touch 2% area , it can flyup to 3%
good luck
- There are two special indicators that affect GOLD today. Among them are ADP NON FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, FINAL GDP special.
- Meanwhile, a FOMC MEMBER is scheduled to speak today at the New York SESSION.
- US10Y currently stands at 2.30% LEVEL. US10Y WEAK a bit after JOLTS DATA yesterday. But that data came in at a very good level. But USD10Y LONG TERM is...
The US government bonds are currently on everyone's lips. Wherever you listen, you hear the word recession and people sometimes talk about the "big crash". This is due to the currently enormously rising interest rate curve.
However, I think that we saw our peak in 10-year government bonds yesterday and I think that the 10-year yield curve will now start falling....
If you go back to my page and read the description, you'd see I also said there is a possibility that Gold could drop lower towards 1872-1850. We haven't exactly hit 1872 yet which we STILL COULD, but this is still a good zone to go long from. We've seen Gold drop roughly 700 PIPS since yesterday alone, liquidating all the buyers who got into the market late. This...
Long-term regression trend on 10yr treasuries just broke above +2 StDev at 2.2%.
Assumption: Fed raises rates to eventually bring them back down in a year or two.
If you go back to my page, you'd see my previous long analysis from 1915 is running in 200 PIPS profit currently. If you read the description, you'd see I also said there is a possibility that Gold could drop lower towards 1872-1850. As we approach the end of the quarter, a lot of institutions will be closing out their Gold longs which can lead to Gold prices...
united states yield curve.
Is the yield curve inverted 2021?
Today, the U.S. yield curve is not inverted, but it's getting a lot less steep in recent months. There's a 42bps spread between the 10 year and 2 year U.S. Treasury bond yields today. In March 2021, the spread was triple that.11 feb 2022
L.E.D. In Spain on 28/03/2022
- There are several special INDICATORS affecting GOLD this week. Especially the NFP this week. Data on a number of special indicators such as ISM MANUFACTURING is due to be released this week. So you should pay more attention to US10Y and DXY.
- US10Y currently stands at 2.52% LEVEL. The US10Y weakened slightly after POWEL's SPEAK last day. But again, it's...
HI GUYS Ten-year bond yields have reached high levels and further growth is currently detrimental to the global economy. It is also approaching significant resistance in the weekly time. We will wait for correction from these levels
Chart showing lead time between the curve inversion and the start of the stock market crashes along the time.
Longest lead time was around 760 days (+2 years)
Shortest lead time was 4-5 months.
Consider a 6 months as a rule for your readiness:
- Build up cash reserves.
- Partial sells of variable income equities (stocks, crypto, etc).
- From 4-6 months forward,...
