The yield on 10-year raise to 1.95%, awaiting data Thursday expected to show stubbornly high U.S. inflation, which could inject further volatility into financial markets bracing for a Federal Reserve cycle of monetary tightening.
16 of the first 18 days of this year, SPY moved in the direction opposite of what US10Y did the previous trading day.
I have been using 1/US10Y to get a rough idea of where the market is heading in the next day. The correlation to SPY is immediately obvious upon just visually comparing the 1D candles.
If this paradigm holds up, next week will be......
As predicted in my last analysis, USDJPY came down to complete Wave E and has now jumped 120 PIPS in profit towards Wave 5🦾 Well done to everyone who got in to long positions and is currently profiting from it.
I am still short on Gold until 1774-1764 before looking at Gold buys. However, after todays manipulative move & with tomorrow being NFP, I have created this as my alternative analysis for Gold long's. Although long term I am still bearish on Gold towards 1570, there is a possibility Gold can take out all the market imbalance towards 1970 before dropping down that...
bonds have been playing along with the aggressive selling in equities so far, but that looks as if it may be about to change for the near term. if risk off/conservative sentiment were really back in force for broader markets we would see government bond yield continuing to increase as the market drops. what the ten year has been telling me for the past week is...
Idea for GME:
- The MOASS is here.
- There is a global shortage of both US dollars and high quality collateral for debt (10-year US Treasury bonds). Why would the dollar be rising despite the high CPI prints? It's simple. To borrow, one must have collateral.
- CS's Zoltan Pozsar explained in Nov. 19th Global Money Dispatch that currently, this demand is caused by...
Ba hemayat Qeymat Dar shakhes e bazdeh e owraq qarze shakhese bitcoin ham b nazar dar hale taqeere ravend va taqier e mowje mibashad. dar tahlile mowjie ma mowje 2 eslahi be nazar ba payan reside va ba oboore qeymat az mohdoodeye 43.100.00$ tavende nozooli dar tahlil tasbit khahad shod .
The bond market often has an inverse relationship with the stock market since it is considered a 'risk off' asset. Bonds generally yield more interest for longer maturities. For example, a bond investor in a healthy economy would expect a greater yield for a 10 year treasury compared to a shorter duration. However, the yield curve can 'invert' (shorter term bond...
The US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has been trading within a Channel Up since the early August low. The price is currently way above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and after a strong rally it is now within a structured Channel Up. The pattern resembles the October structured Channel Up, which led to a top and pull-back back below the 1D MA200 (orange...
We always here on the financial media of the inverse correlation between US 10 Year yields and the major stock indexes. Understanding this correlation may give you insight as to how to deal with a rising rate environment. In Tradeview, you can easily compare each index with the 10 Year Yield (US10Y) to view how they correlate. For simpicity I have done this...
In case you're wondering why futures are tanking, bond yields broke out
RTY retesting support line, ES and NQ retesting bottom of channel lines. This could get ugly if yields rise any furtehr.
As we have high record inflation on U.S. and the surging rate hike expectation. This will definitly bring the the US10Y up. As it is have negative correlation to expansionary monetary policy.
After yesterday squeeze on record inflation data release. It is back to it's reasonable territory. We recommend to take profit if you are in stocks long or USD short.
Hi folks!
I just tried to take a broader perspective on things again, and wanted to take a look at the
pricing of the S&P500 relative to the M2 Money Supply, as well as the effect of real interest rates on markets.
Note that the orange line here is the negative of the real interest rates - that is, .
My takes are these:
(1) The S&P500 relative to the M2 (broad...
Hi folks!
Enough said already - just stay out:
- S&P500 has just once been more expensive in terms of most metrics (Schiller PE, P/S, Relative to Money supply etc.)
- Real interests (inflation - treasury yields) have NEVER been as negative as they are now - contributing to huge inequality in society
=> Fed will have to act, and most likely a lot faster than the...
This here is my short analysis for the Dollar Index all the way back down to $82.50. This here is the overall bigger direction on the Daily timeframe. My Monthly TF analysis (Posted on my TradingView profile) has led me to believe the Dollar Index will take another dive down, in order to complete the corrective structure in accordance to the Elliot Wave...
