Analysis on Treasuries in 3 detailed bullet points ; Series on fixed income and the 2020 outlook - 21st of December 19' Before I get into the analysis, wishing you all Happy holidays! 1. What's the outlook for 2020? Compared to the summer of 2019, the recession fears have somewhat phased out. Nevertheless, weak global macros(PMI's, Growth) and the...
For those tracking the latest round of Fixed Income chart updates we have the final leg to the stool ahead right on time for NY. You will notice that on the back-end of the curve there is loud messages of a meaningful top being placed. The technical breakdown is indicating that we have another round of flattening towards key support at 32bps. For the Chartpack...
You have opened the grave of an economic cycle. Before we dig deeper into the nature and consequences of our discovery, we will discuss the background to the thesis and consider first what we know from history a few lessons; (1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. A (2) A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse...
A rather quick update here as markets find a floor rate differentials as widely anticipated. It is no surprises for those following the chart previously: For the technicals, those with a background in waves will know this is a textbook example of an ABC correction after a 5 wave sequence; Things are a lot clearer in the FX board as we begin the flows in...
Testing times for US 10yr Treasuries.
A timely update to the US10Y Yield chart as we breakout with November highs in scope. We will not be covering US fundamentals here today and instead will focus on key technicals in play. For the flows in our map for today and the rest of 2019 we have the key levels in play (highly recommend adding all to charts): Steel Support => 1.65 Strong Support =>...
After getting the breakout we were tracking for in USDJPY we are now back and revisiting our infamous "Loading Zone" area at 109.3x right in time for BOJ to maintain the status quo. Outside of a knee jerk via risk I expect USDJPY to hold 108 - 109 range until we clear BOJ next week. Odds of Japanese rates being taken further into the red is declining, meaning...
Updates coming from the previous "Banks Look Cheap vs Utilities" chart. For those who don't remember here are the flows we have been tracking: Now it is clear US 10-year Yields are starting to withdraw again, although this time Banks vs Utilities are less affected. I have been talking with clients recently around this space and there is broadly no concern....
Longerterm projection of the spread between US10Y and US03MY
Nice volatility and breakout showing in bottom of the range in US10Y. Take a fast look at Monthly chart: It obviously we have a support here, and we are going to reverse to 2.12 and probably to 2.55
As global financial markets continue to grind higher and reach new highs, it appears that yields on the US 10-Year Treasury are doing the same. Yields broke through their previous yearly high of 1.899% (Green Resistance Line), settling at 1.943% (as of Nov 10th), and are trying to make a move higher. On a technical basis, yields seem to be forming an "Ascending...
updating the previous chart to look at how this is behaving. Keeps retesting neckline, yet it keeps getting rejected. If broken, this will rally a bit, but I still expect this to head south significantly.
The squeeze in Treasuries is coming soon. Right now, it's just getting started and testing the break. The narrative of deflation has picked up steam strongly in the past 2 months with oil now clobbered, Powell going dovish (today), stocks down, and many many other reasons.
Overall, yields around the world will continue to plummet as the world slips into a bonafide global economic crisis sometime later in 2020. While 2008 was known as the banking/financial crisis, this time around, it will be a full-blown world-wide currency crisis compounded by a plethora of social and geopolitical issues which may exacerbate into a depression by...