Contrary to what most people believe, 10 year yields have very little to do with the DXY, but rather acts as an outlook/sentiment with respect to the global economy. Of course there are many other things in play, however, in this impending recession that will be the major driving force for the 10 year. Moreover, plummeting yields from most other nations will...
US10y : Series on Bonds - Sept 20th 2019(7-8 minute read) For the past couple of month yield curves, particularly the 10 year vs the short term maturities have been a popular topic in the mainstream media, mostly because of the yield curve inversion . This analysis aims to provide a well detailed approach to some of the crucial factors regarding the US...
Trade idea from real vision by Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, updates his home-run trade on Treasuries and reviews his current outlook for recession. www.realvision.com
Descending wedge and RSI divergence. US10Y ready for a bounce. Maybe 1.8....Invalidate if new low is made. Hence gold/silver will suffer during said bounce
Huge move down starting late '18 to early Sep '19 (from 3.25% to 1.43%). Whist overall the US 10 yr yield will likely fall over time, a short term retracement bounce to 1.86%, then possibly 2.125%.
US10Y) US Government 10yr yield bonds attempt to reverse the long term downtrend around July 2016 lows at 1.445. The US10Y bonds have been on this downtrend trail since it collapsed around mid-November 2018 at 3.00. The 10yr bonds have breached the short term band at 1.605 and were at 1.648 at the time of writing up 5.43%. The 10yr bonds need to remain above 1.605...
This is the active chart based on our last long term analysis
The 10Y yield has been falling since it peaked on the 5th of October and 8th of November 2018. On each leg down of the US10Y, ie; from the 8th of November till the 3rd of December 2018, from the 17th of April till the 3rd of June 2019 and from the 29th of July to the 8th of August 2019, the SPX has also correspondingly fallen. However, the DXY, which has been...
M timeframe BULL W timeframe BULL D timeframe NEUTRAL GOLD/SPY turning negative BULL SPY/TLT stocks vs. bonds turning positive BULL US10Y overextended BUY TRADE WAR hopes BULL MARKET overreacted BULL DATA above consensus BULL % SP500 stocks above 200SMA > 50 support BULL RSI > 50 momentum BULL RSI support 40 hold BULL VOLUME buy momentum BUY MACD bears loosing...
Yields on the US-10 Year Treasury continue to head lower, as they approach a multi-year support of 1.426% (blue), a level not seen since July 2016. "Risk Off" continues to be in play.
Expecting a strong reversal on the 10yr yields. Good Luck.
The last drop in stocks markets and a recession fear makes us suspect if we are facing a bear market... Read more.
We are currently witnessing levels is the Bond Market that have never been seen before. Again today, the US02Y-US10Y have inverted multiple times. The US01M-US03Y have now also inverted. We currently live in a time where debt is out of control and unfortunately there is no end in sight. History shows, within 6-18 months after a US02Y-US10Y inversion, the...
Gold is such a haven asset and this chart is showing exactly how the current market is doing so, and the risk appetite isn't so nice compared to Gold! Again, Don't blame the FED! This is because of Donald Trump and his trade war, so don't blame China either. However, the equity market is struggling to keep the prices as high as possible and not pricing in the...
An inverted yield curve (2/10) is an indicator but the 'cause'. Yields were 6%/5%/4% last times they were inverted and not 1.5% :) If corps can't afford to pay 1.5%, there is nothing Fed can do to resolve that issue. Policy issues are the cause and the cure is fiscal and not monetary. GL Not a trading call, just sharing my view. Peace