Here we are witnessing the minimum target from a ABC perspective since the January highs at 2.799%. This sequence from here on should be viewed as corrective and will be a shallow retrace in the broader trend. There is little support here so the key levels to watch in play remain 2.286%. We may see some choppy waters here, however, the potential to retrace as...
Watch price action on lower time frame for entry.
Possible bullish bat PRZ, $SPX imposed (inverted), $SPY, $TNX, $IRX
Regardless of the fundamentals that are dominating the global economic scene (trade wars), there is an interesting long term, and rather cyclical from the looks of it, pattern developing on the U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield. The pattern is a declining Head and Shoulders formation on 1W. The last two times that the same pattern emerged (in 2017 and in 2015 -...
Bonds is rising and the stock will falling
Update to previous linked idea.
Chart of SPX price accounting for USD strength and appreciation/inflation (not sure which term is technically correct). Reveals completed massive HS pattern in conjunction with infamous Bart pattern - ups and down akin to Bart Simpson’s haircut that precede a dump. This corroborates my previous SPX bearish idea, which is based on a formula I developed for...
The Yield Curve of the Free Markets ... 10Y-30Y Combination Case.. - US Bonds maturities of 10 Year and 30 Year (long maturities) are mostly influenced by free market participants and not by the FED Funds ... at present time they are not tightening as most combinations based on more short maturities. The indicator in the chart, the combination 10Year-30Years is...
The same pattern as in 2007,has the crisis started???
Although I am structurally bearish US treasuries, I am bullish for a cyclical pop up to $131 on TLT.
Market is currently around a number of support levels ranging from 2.796% and 2.514% => This area is going to be very difficult to break because it also includes the uptrend which started from July 2016. Here it is worth pointing out that the market has seen the leg lower via the ABC count. Consildation has kicked in for a lengthy period of time and we are set...
There are a few opportunities which we have discussed privately on AUD and why it is a good time to be getting long on AUD crosses (namely AUDCAD or AUDJPY). Here I am nervous over USD strength as we begin pricing in a Q3 hike there so with Gold moving down in an impulse move (see attached ideas for more colour on that topic) the short here seems reasonable....
Bond yields should continue higher over the coming weeks while stronger than expected data is released. All leading indicators continue to point higher for now.
a stab at a very tricky place for interest rates
We did break out of the descending channell we also did make a bullish overbalance on the last swing high so I am entering long here
35% of US treasuries are held externally, the Fed does not have full control over the interest rates until those treasuries are held internally and the US is internally funded.
US Treasury 10Y yield looks set to break and close below the weekly ichimoku cloud soon. A benign inflation outlook and easing bond yields will be good for stocks going forward. New highs in US stock markets remain very much on the cards as the catalyst for the selloff last year was a hawkish Fed that was causing yields to go increasingly higher.