Since the beginning of this year, until last week, the markets were certain that inflation is on the down-path and that the Fed might cut interest rates somewhere in May this year. However, the February inflation data made the markets rethink their initial assumptions. The inflation seems to be more persistent than initially estimated, in which sense, the rate...
The Dollar pushed up even further today, further supporting our USDJPY buy & Gold short analysis🔥 Keep an eye on the Dollar as there's a possible chance in the mid term we might see a much further push above our $108 target.
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.193, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 38.653) as it crossed above the 1D MA200 again, with the 1D MA50 following right under it, with the two on an emerging 1D Golden Cross. We have anticipated that rebound from the HL of the Channel Up on our previous idea and our medium-term target...
With the help of 'Retail Sales' & 'PPI' data, we've seen once again fundamentals come in & manipulate price towards our technical bias. Price getting closer to hitting our selling confirmation📉
Remember this US30 analysis I posted back in July calling for a new all time high?👀 This analysis worked out to perfection! Market is now up 5,990 PIPS (18% growth) from our POI😍 Whoever invested into US30 when this analysis was posted, you should all be up now & running in deep profits as we have breached new all time high's!
As the Dollar pushed up yesterday, we saw a nice sell off on Gold, with 300 PIPS downside. Still waiting for our 'selling confirmation' zone to be hit & to confirm a break of structure. Will possibly move our selling zone higher over the next few days depending on the structure that Gold creates. Till then I'm sitting on the sidelines📉
With the help & manipulation from CPI data, the DXY is now pushing within our technical bias. We saw in the previous days the $103 low's get taken which would have trapped in new sellers, now CPI has come in & liquidated them. Previous Inflation Rate: 3.9% New Inflation Rate: 3.8%
Gold moving very choppy to the upside, despite a positive NFP figure. We're seeing a trap form which'll keep enticing new & new buyers into the market, before we see a reversal. Waiting for a break of structure once our 'selling confirmation' zone is hit, which is when we will short the market. Till then I'm sitting on the sidelines📉
During the previous week the market was pricing released job data in the US. Increasing unemployment rate boosted investors expectations that the Fed's rate cuts are round the corner. Also it has been confirmed through the Fed Chair Powell`s testimony to the Senate, with wording “at some point” during the course of this year. Although, initially, it was expected...
US Non Farm Payrolls Data Actual: 223K🔺 Expected: 160k Previous: 177K
US Yields have topped back in October 2023 with sharp leg down, which is from Elliott wave perspective first leg A of a deeper A-B-C decline that can send the price back to the former wave 4 area to 3.25% - 2.5%. At the same time, we can see USdollar Index - DXY also turning down due to a positive correlation with Yields, we just saw some divergence in...
Re-analysed our entire wave count as Gold decided to go ahead & create a complex Wave 5 completion. Instead of finishing Wave X at the 2023 high of $2,141 we saw a steeper move, creating a new all time high at $2,165 taking out a lot of sellers. ⭕️Wait For A BOS (Selling Confirmation) At $2,123. ⭕️Overbought & Choppy Market Conditions. ⭕️DXY Strength Incoming Soon.
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, which we gave a buy signal on last time (January 24, see chart below): Yesterday it touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line for the first time since the February 05 break-out. During the previous leg of the 1.5 year Channel Up, the 1D MA50 held all the way until the formation of the...
Gold is VERY, VERY CLOSE to our POI & supply zone. If this short position goes accordingly, looking to bank a potential 2,000+ PIPS profit from this move🦾
Based on the moves from Treasury yields during the previous week, it seems that Fed's rate cuts are coming. This is what the market is saying, however, we still need this input from the Fed. At this moment, it is irrelevant whether it will be at March`s FOMC meeting or later within the course of this year, the important thing is that the market is now certain...
Seen a very nice bullish push up on Gold today, with market moving 200+ PIPS. Still expecting a slow & gradual move into our $2,100 POI before we consider shorting the market back down again & buying it back at a cheaper price!
We are still bearish on Gold mid term & waiting for buyers to take out liquidity & reach our POI. Only then will we look to enter sells. Currently not in any short term buy's, but will keep an eye out to see if market structure offers an opportunity. Our main bias is still sells🤙🏽
US01MY just crossed-up US10Y, which -if history is any guide- indicates an impeding long-term crypto market reversal and signals the start of a new bull-cycle . Given my previous prediction for BTC to bottom out at $9.5k - $10k, I expect a strong market shake-up in the upcoming 2-4 weeks . Good luck all.