The US10Y is being rejected on the 1D MA200 after a HL rebound at the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up. The 1D technical outlook turned bearish again (RSI = 42.660, MACD = -0.055, ADX = 36.524), same with the 1W timeframe (RSI = 43.184), so this is still an early buy opportunity for the long term. The 1D RSI patterns among the three bottoms so far are similar and...
before you read any further, read my post from april: --- it has been awhile since i've given a public update on the us10y and my general theory about where i believe these rates are headed. back in april of 2023, i gave an upside target of 5.9% for the us10y. as of today, i'm raising the range for that upside target into the window between 6-9%, going...
The first half of the year 2023 was marked with continuation of Fed`s aggressive rate hike due to quantitative tightening in order to fight elevated inflation. During October last year the 10Y US Treasuries reached the highest yearly level of 5%. Considering that following months brought some relaxation in Fed`s rhetoric, the yields returned to the lower grounds....
lokking bearish trend in 4h timeframe breakout ascending trendline
HAPPY NEW YEAR! 🎉 US Treasury markets are more than the combined bond markets of Germany, Japan, China, UK, France, and Italy = HUGE. This is why US #Bond market is important to keep track of. Short term #interestrates has been the weakest in a LONG TIME 1Yr & 2Yr charts look similar. US Debt 2ys & less have been weakening & look like they still want to...
The 10 year & 30 Yr #yield are at support levels. Looking at Daily charts: The longer term, 30Yr, looks better than TVC:TNX (10Yr) Looking at Weekly charts: The 10Yr support level looks strongest @ 3.3%. All sorts of support levels and trendlines were broken recently. The 30 Yr trendline is certainly broken & Strong Support is found here.
Circle is the most perfect of shapes. It optimizes its area perfectly. An architectural marvel with no point of failure. And it is unique. All circles are similar to each other. Some small, other large. In the end identical. Cycle is the Hellenic word of Circle. I purposefully call it "Hellenic" instead of "Greek" Market cycles are just that, cycles/circles....
Bank of America says the recession and credit crunch could lead to large corporate defaults. Credit strategists at Bank of America note that the fallout from the recession and credit crunch could see $1 trillion in corporate debt eventually become insolvent. This is largely due to the fact that banks have already begun to refuse lending conditions after the...
Caught in the twin grip of elevated US yields and a stronger USD, Gold may be on the defensive over the near term unless geopolitical risks still escalate. Escalating geopolitical and trade risks are playing an increasingly supportive role in Gold prices, engineering rallies that are likely to stay high in 2024. Gold Price Clinging to Highs Under $2'000. The...
Cooling inflation data in the US were the ones which were supporting optimism with market participants, indicating a good time to start purchasing the US bonds. The PCE data were published on Friday, revealing that the index was increased by 0.1% in November. The PCE is one of the favorite Fed's inflation gauges, which indicated to markets that the Fed might start...
We all remember The Great Depression. That is a lie. Very few who live today lived when this monumental event occured. After the Roaring '20s, a decade of parabolic stock market growth and explosive demand for stocks , the cash-out came. In the Depression, people were giving out stocks for free, burning the titles. Truly a desperate action by many. Demand for...
This chart is frightening. It suggests that SPY can become a modern-day example of Galloping Gertie, the famous Tacoma Narrows Bridge which collapsed from nothing more than wind. I have said it before, 2022 was the year when an Equity Crash didn't actually happen, while we were all talking about it. It is but a scratch. But with a bleeding chopped-off arm, how...
It was final time for the Fed to align with the market. At the latest FOMC meeting, this was the case, considering that rhetoric about potential rate increases was not at all in the spotlight of Powell's speech, but clearly slowdown of inflation and that FOMC members are perceiving Fed`s rates at 4.6% as of the end of 2024. This was a clear signal for markets that...
NASDAQ:TLT Resistance at $100 Pivot, Friday December 15, 2023 NY Fed President Williams stated on CNBC, "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now." This seemed to conflict with Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference. It does not matter what they say it will show up in the charts and our algorithms.
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis. US10yr bond yields finding bullish reversal off lower range of descending parallel channel (white) - further momentum pending upcoming 10yr auction + US economic data. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish reaction to macro economic news = continued momentum to break above descending trend-line (white dashed) towards 38.2%...
TVC:US10Y versus SP:SPX inverse correlation analysis. Work in progress indicator for anticipating market trend switches. Notes: Emerging correlation identified within US10Y/SPX ratio. Spikes in ratio (orange vertical line, dotted) aka bond yield ROC/volatility = higher probability of risk-off sentiment (ie big tech & growth stock rotation). Correlation...
JUST SAYING....... NOT implying that the party is over BUT heed some signs by treasury. 1Yr #yield is fighting to close above the 10day Mov Avg (RED). 2 Yr has a possible 3rd day trading above the RED Mov Avg. 10Yr fighting to get above the recent trend it broke & Moving Avg's. US #Dollar has been fighting & looks to be gaining momentum. We'll see how this does...
The yields on the US Treasuries continued to slow down during the course of the previous week. However, a strong US jobs data posted on Friday, made an impact on 10Y yields to revert a bit toward the higher grounds. Although the US equities were supported by the same news, investors in the Treasury bonds still hold a dose of reserve when it comes to the future...