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US10Y

US10Y Bearish Divergence tells us it may be time for correctionLast time we looked at the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), it gave us a technical bounce and profitable buy signal (see chart below) as the Higher Lows trend-line held: This time we get an opposite signal as the 1D RSI formed Lower Highs, while the price is on Higher Highs, which is a technical Bearish Divergence. The asset is still supported both by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Higher Lows 3 trend-line since the May 04 Low. Our strategy is to sell and target a price slightly above each Higher Lows trend-line, then re-sell if a 1D candle closes below that Higher Lows trend-line. Target 1 is 4.745, if a 1D candle closes below Higher Lows 1, we will re-sell and target 4.645 (expected contact with the 1D MA50). If Higher Lows 2 break, then re-sell and target 4.465 on Higher Lows 3 and a projected contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
1
Citizens Financial Group. Possible Upside on Q3'23 Earnings CallBond pressure... Pushing' down on me, Pressing' down on you, No man ask for... Technical graph says that possible upside with NYSE:CFG stocks could be possible, with projected/ targeted line at 52W SMA. With 6.20% dividends yield, double-digit operating yield and P/B just at 0.6, NYSE:CFG securities can be considered as quite undervalued. The protection level can be considered as multi months (6-, 12-months) low.
NYSE:CFG
by PandorraResearch
🐹 Caution To All TLT Hamsters - TBT Has More Room to DeliverTBT is a UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF. This Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the Daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. 1. Always look first. Never rush into a trade or investment blindly. 2. Wait, and wait again, for the pattern to develop. 3. Be patient and use alerts to get notified when the time is right. 4. Measure trading ranges and adjust your plan for sideways action. 5. Look for bases and consolidations. 6. Zoom out and look for historical levels of support and resistance within those bases or consolidations. 7. Markets can go sideways longer than traders can stay solvent. 8. Adjust your stop loss and take profit targets for the choppy price action. 9. Be prepared for false breakouts and false breakdowns. 10. Choppy markets do not trade like trending markets. Technical picture in AMEX:TBT indicates it has possibility to further upside price action, up to 57 - 60 U.S. dollars per share, as key multi year resistance (5-years simple MA) has been successfully broken at the end of 2022.
AMEX:TBT
by PandorraResearch
US 10Y TREASURY: weight interest rate outlookThe US Treasury yield eased a bit during the previous week, after a sharp move to the upside, during the past two weeks. This comes as a result of market expectations that the Fed might skip further rate increases during the course of this year. Latest published inflation figures are indicating that the inflation is clearly on its down-path, but still there are some uncertainties which might impact its short reversal, especially due to geopolitical tensions. The 10Y Treasury yields started the previous week around 4.8% level, but soon eased and reached level of 4.5%. Still, yields are finishing the week around 4.6% level. As markets are now increasing probability for Fed to pause its further rate hikes during both November`s and December`s meetings, it could be expected for US Treasury yields to further ease. They will start the week ahead around 4.6%, with a high probability for 4.5% to be tested one more time, but there is no indication on charts that 4.4% might be reached in the week ahead.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y Bullish as long as the 1day MA50 holds.The 10year Bond Yields / US10Y is trading inside a Channel Up since May 1st. The last two weeks the price is pulling back after a Higher High rejection and Double Top on Resistance A (4.888), aiming at the bottom of the Channel Up. That is a buy opportunity to target 4.888 again. If on the other hand the 1day MA50 breaks (is untouched since July 20th), sell and target 4.222 (Support A). Keep an eye on the Rising Support of the 1day RSI also for early bearish signals. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:US10Y
by TheCryptagon
5
$DXY & $TNX & Rates show signs of exhaustionThe US #Dollar has pulled back a bit: At MAJOR SUPPORT At Green Moving Avg = Support RSI is at 50 (neutral bullish unless crosses lower) Weekly TVC:DXY is 50-50 The RSI is curling over but the MACD is now above 0 = down trend over Hmmm, interesting scenario Not sure what to make of it Monthly #currency ------------------------------- The 2Yr #Yield broke the recent up trend. While it has performed better than shorter term #interestrates it's gotten weaker recently. The RSI & MACD have been trending lower for some time and it's much easier to see on a weekly! Look @ that Severe Negative Divergence! Could rates be DONE? ------------------------------- The 10 Yr #Yield on the other hand has built good deal of steam lately. Weekly it is overbought. Monthly it's overbought as well. But what is interesting is that the MACD has only been higher 1x than current scenario. MACD histogram lower (arrow) = future MACD neg crossover? However, it's nowhere near as weak as short term #interestrates TVC:TNX
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
US 10Y TREASURY: is it over?The US Treasuries were in the market spotlight during the previous week. Their sell-off continued also during the week, when yields reached their highest level at 4.88% for 10Y benchmark, which was its highest level for the last 16 years. The yields started to relax a bit on Thursday, however, Friday’s strong jobs report supported market sentiment on potential for another Fed's rate hike during this year, and yield slipped back toward the 4.80% where they are finishing the week. As US inflation figures for September will be posted in the week ahead, the current question is whether the market has fully priced another rate hike by the Fed during the previous week or it will need some more time? Current yields are in a range of those from the 2008 financial crisis, and potential higher levels of 10Y Treasury bonds from those in 2008 would certainly send a negative sentiment to many holders of the US Treasury bonds all over the world, let aside consequences which many institutions could have due to negative valuations. At this moment some precaution could be advisable for the US Treasuries. Charts are pointing for some time on potential for reversal and so is for the week ahead. The level of 4.6% is pointed on the charts as a potential next stop of 10Y yields, however, markets might easily decide to act in a different way in the week ahead.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
$US10Y Reaches 16 Year High, Short-Term Forecast & DiscussionThe TVC:US10Y has been extremely bullish since May 2023, and has gained more strength after the Fed's hawkish announcement that led to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment. The TVC:US10Y has broke through numerous resistance levels to reach its 16-year high. From a technical analysis perspective, the TVC:US10Y has a tendency to have strong bullish rallies with breaks above the Bollinger Band (marked by yellow lines). We are observing that scenario in the current bonds market. There is a likelihood that the rally continues for a few more weeks (approximately 1-4 weeks). However, I think the TVC:US10Y and bonds market are due for a correction back down to the EMA ribbon. A strong bond market hurts equities because investors perceive TVC:US10Y as a less riskier investment alternative. This is hurting SP:SPX in the short term, but a peaking TVC:US10Y could also signal the bottom of the SP:SPX correction at current levels. For now investors are waiting for Friday's jobs data after the Tuesday JOLTS job openings data came in worse than expected.
TVC:US10YShort
by realchartchamp
1
What's a Tea! Fed Policy Expectations Plunge Gold to Key SupportGold declined marginally by 3% in September hitting its major support of 52 weeks SMA, in the face of higher long term Treasury yields TVC:TNX and a stronger Dollar index TVC:DXY . Sentiment remained weak for most of the month as ETFs continued to lose AUM while COMEX managed money net long futures positions fell to a five month low previously in August 2023. 👉 Since July, long-dated yields have risen faster than short-dated yields, meaning the yield curve is exhibiting a "bear steepening", something often seen during a reflationary or early business cycle period. 👉 Following this thesis, lets compare 13-Weeks Treasury Bills Yield CBOE:IRX.P that jumped in 3 months from 5.150 to 5.330 only, and 10-Years Treasury Notes Yield TVC:US10Y with gains from 3.820 to 4.630 at the same time. 👉 While gold tends to underperform risk assets during these periods, it is not common to see bear steepening this late in the business cycle and recent moves in yields may be masking other factors at play, such as higher risk premiums 👉 Soft US economic data suggests also that a slowdown is still likely, which, alongside a potential change in the shape of the yield curve, could signal an environment where gold has historically performed well. Yields take center stage 👉 August and September were challenging for gold. After dipping below US$1,900/oz, it staged a late recovery – around the Fed’s Jackson Hole annual symposium, than turned more down after Fed's September Meeting to finish September down approximately by 3 per cent. 👉 The US Treasury yield curve is arguably the most important financial indicator around, and its trajectory and shape are constantly under scrutiny. Most of the time (90%) it slopes upward as investors need to be compensated for lending their money for longer. But at these times, it inverts. As it has since July 2022, suggesting bond market participants are waiting Fed's monetary policy tightening continuation. Lets Compare Gold Spot in U.S. Dollars (RHS) vs. 6-Months Fed's Policy Expectations based on Jun'24 30-Days Federal Funds Futures CBOT:ZQM2024 (LHS) Gold Spot in U.S. Dollars (RHS) vs. 12-Months Fed's Policy Expectations based on Dec'24 30-Days Federal Funds Futures CBOT:ZQZ2024 (LHS) What’s next 👉 In summary, the move in the 10-year yield can likely be attributed to three main factors. A shift up in the ‘higher interest rates for longer’ narrative, supply and demand forces and a rise in the risk premium. 👉 The latter factor might start to provide support to gold prices, if it continues to increase from its key support of 52W SMA. 👉 If we simply look at bear steepening, gold tends to underperform – with low single digit average returns. Historically, the most likely successor to a bear steepening is a bull flattening (approx. a third of the time). This is characterized by a fall in the long end of the curve relative to the short end, effectively an unwinding of the rising premia we’ve witnessed. 👉 This partly took place at the latter end of September with gold likely benefitting from such yield declines. Also, soft data continue to suggest that a slowdown is still firmly on the cards. This could result in either a bull steepening or a rare "bear-". Both phases have on average been gold friendly, yielding an annualized return of 15% – the highest of all the phases. Gold Market Breath 👉 What is Market Breath overall? 👉 Market Breath is a Percentage of Index Components Trading Above their N-Period Moving Average. 👉 Traders can use this index to see what percentage of index components are trading above their N-period moving average, for example, above the 200-day moving average. 👉 A rise above 50% in the indicator indicates increased market strength, while like the index of new highs and lows, traders and investors often look for extreme values to find extreme overbought and oversold conditions in the broader market. 👉 Gold Market Breath Indicator INDEX:YATH (number of S&P/TSX Global Gold Index TSX:TTGD above 200-Day SMA) is at 2.43, that is one of the lowest multi year readings . In conclusion, there are some reasonable considerations for further Gold spot purchases following the thesis that 52W SMA is a strong support for Gold in 2023, and further Fed's Policy expectations for upcoming 2024 are fully in the hands already.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PandorraResearch
5
DXY and Yields are set up to Rise as SPX Tests Range ResistanceThe DXY is sitting at the HOP level of this Bullish Deep Crab for the second time, generating PPO Confirmation Arrows during both tests, while the Yields are sitting at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat with PPO Confirmation, all while the SPX500USD is testing what used to be Former Range Support as New Resistance. If everything lines up here as it seems, we should see DXY and Yields Rise once more as the SPX rejects the old trading range in what I anticipate to be a fairly violent way.
TVC:DXYLong
by RizeSenpai
1
US10Y: Soaring Bond Yields as Federal Reserve Maintains Hawkish The Fed Hawkish Stance During Wednesday's address, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reinforced his stance on tackling inflation with a more cautious approach. He emphasized that the central bank is not yet finished with its efforts to curb inflation and hinted at the possibility of implementing multiple interest rate increases during future monetary policy meetings. Powell's statement comes as a response to the ongoing challenge of bringing down inflation, which has consistently remained above the central bank's target of 2%. Notably, some Fed officials have emphasized in recent speeches that inflationary pressures persist. They specifically highlight core inflation, which excludes the volatile prices of food and gas, as not decelerating as rapidly as overall inflation. The aforementioned statement supports the potential scenario of higher Government Bond Yields in the future, as an increase in interest rates typically correlates with elevated yields. Technical Analsyis The U.S. government's 10-Year Bond Yield has undergone a retracement, precisely at the 0.5 Fibonacci ratio, establishing a support area. Notably, the yield currently exhibits a bullish trend as it remains above the EMA 200 line, indicating positive market sentiment. Furthermore, the Falling wedge pattern suggests a continuation of the prevailing trend. Complementing this observation, the stochastic line crosses within the neutral area, further bolstering the case for a possible upward movement toward the target area. It is important to keep in mind that once the target/support area is reached, the roadmap provided may no longer be valid. If you find this analysis helpful, I encourage you to show your support by clicking the rocket button and sharing your opinions in the comments section below. "Disclaimer: This analysis is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as a recommendation to take a long or short position on the TVC:US10Y ."
TVC:US10YLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
9