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US10Y

CURRENT GOLD CYCLE👇🏽2017 - 2021: Market made its first impulse wave. Created a new ATH (all time high) at $2,074. 2022 - 2023: Long term correction & accumulation for buy orders. Also, market trapped late buyers at the top, who got in during the end of Covid. Liquidated them during the correction. 2024 = New all time high’s for the market. Markets move in cycles. Never a straight line. Those who fail to understand cycles & want quick profits, will fail even quicker📝
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
🏘 Housing Bubble v 2.0: What Does It Mean for US Stock MarketMuch to the chagrin of would-be homebuyers, property prices just keep rising. It seems nothing - not even the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years — can stop the continued climb of home prices. Prices increased once again in July, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index , with 19 out of 20 markets measured showing month-over-month gains. In another reflection of ongoing increases, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says more than half of U.S. metro areas registered home price gains in the second quarter of 2023. So much for the idea that a "housing recession" would reverse some of the outsized price gains in homes. The U.S. housing market had finally started slowing in late 2022, and home prices seemed poised for a correction. But a strange thing happened on the way to the housing crash: Home values started rising again. NAR reports that median sale prices of existing homes are near record highs. Home prices in August 2023 rose 3.9 percent year-0ver-year to reach $407,100 — near the all-time-high of $413,800, and only the fifth time any monthly median has eclipsed the $400,000 mark since NAR began keeping records. The housing recession is essentially over, or has just began!? Home values have held steady even as mortgage rates have soared past 7 percent, reaching their highest level in more than 20 years in August. The culprit is a lack of housing supply. Inventories remain frustratingly tight, with NAR’s August data showing only a 3.3-month supply. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rates Turn Higher, as 200-Month SMA Key Resistance was broken earlier in 2022. Average Annual Mortgage Interest. 30 000 U.S. Dollars Rubicon is at the hands. After the Federal Reserve’s meeting in June, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters he was keeping a close eye on the housing market. "Housing is very interest-sensitive, and it’s one of the first places that’s either helped by low rates or held back by higher rates," - Powell said in the press conference. "We’re watching that situation carefully." Housing economists and analysts agree, regardless, that any market correction is likely to be a modest one. No one expects price drops on the scale of the declines experienced during the Great Recession. Is the housing and stock markets are going to crash? The last time the U.S. housing market looked so frothy was back in 2000s. Back then, home values crashed with disastrous consequences. When the real estate bubble burst, the global economy plunged into the deepest downturn since the Great Depression. Now that the housing boom is threatened by skyrocketing mortgage rates and a potential recession so buyers and homeowners are asking a familiar question: Is the housing market about to crash? 5 reasons ("cast in bronze") there will be no housing market crash 1. Inventories are still very low. 2. Builders didn’t build quickly enough to meet demand. 3. Demographic trends are creating new buyers. 4. Lending standards remain strict and impose tough standards on borrowers. 5. Foreclosure activity is muted: In the years after the housing crash, millions of foreclosures flooded the housing market, depressing prices, and it’s nothing like it was two decades ago. Funny, but all of that adds up to the one only consensus: Yes, home prices are still pushing the bounds of affordability. But "Ooh not", this boom shouldn’t end in bust. 😏 History does not repeat itself. But often rhymes. Technical graph for ECONOMICS:USSFHP - U.S. Single Family Home Prices illustrates there has been a while, without new all time highs in Top Four U.S. Stock market indices while Housing Bubble was exist in 2000s. So lets see, will be the same in 2020s or not, while 2023 is a second straight year without new all time peaks in S&P500 SP:SPX , in Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ:NDX , in Dow Jones Index AMEX:DJIA as well as in Russell 2000 Index TVC:RUT
ECONOMICS:USSFHP
by PandorraResearch
Inflated risk – assessing the biggest pain trade in markets Arguably one of the biggest themes through Q323 was the one-way trend in the USD. During the quarter we saw trade-weighted USD gain 3.1%, with the USD essentially outperforming against all G10 currencies, except the NOK, which caught strong tailwinds from a surging crude price. We consider the recent drivers, but we explore the scenarios that could see further gains in the USD as we roll into Q4. One such scenario is the potential for a rise in inflation, an outcome that could really shake things up in markets. Everything worked for the USD in Q3 One of the clear USD levers has been the US economic ‘exceptionalism’ story, where the US economy has arguably been the best house on the street. Case in point, the Federal Reserve recently upgraded its 2023 GDP forecasts by 1.1ppt to 2.1% and 0.4ppt to 1.5% in 2024. Contrast the Fed’s positive actions to the weakness seen in China’s economy and concerns about the property sector – growth downgrades from the ECB, amid contractions in EU & UK service PMIs, with falling inflation leading the BoE to hold rates in the September meeting. The Fed also reduced the level of anticipated rate cuts in 2024, portrayed in their ‘Dot Plot’ projections, by 50bp. This was a surprise to many, but this was designed to enforce the notion of a higher-for-longer policy stance, while signalling a view that they are not looking at rate cuts anytime soon. This action has also seen both nominal and real US Treasury yields pushing to multi-year highs across the ‘curve’, with the US 10-year Treasury really underperforming, with yields hitting 4.70% and the highest since 2007. Moves in Treasuries have supported the USD’s valuation, but it also increased the demand for USDs as a hedge against equity drawdown. The US labour market is tight but cooling As Q4 gets underway, the US labour market will continue to get a strong focus. While we await the September nonfarm payrolls report, we head into the report seeing a cooling in the labour market. Inflation is expected to head lower – but, what if? Where life becomes truly problematic would be if US inflation were to rise despite a further cooling in the labour market. With market-based consensus expectations (seen in CPI ‘fixings’) for headline US CPI to fall to 3% in 6 months’ time and 2.25% over the coming 12 months, any scenario which has us truly questioning this pricing could increase uncertainty and see volatility rise across markets. On 12 October we see the US September CPI print. Expectations currently sit at: · The consensus from economists is we see headline CPI at 0.3% MoM / 3.6% YoY (from 3.7%), while core CPI is eyed at 0.3% MoM / 4.1% YoY. · The Cleveland Fed Nowcast model sees headline CPI coming in at 3.7% and core CPI at 4.2%. · US CPI fixings (a way for interest rate traders to set a view on where inflation will be on release) sit at 3.58% for headline CPI. Taking an aggregation of these market/economist expectations the lack of dispersion suggests market participants will have some confidence in their positioning over the upcoming CPI release. This suggests that if we do see an outcome vastly different from consensus expectations it will cause a big move across broad markets. The big pain trade therefore comes from higher US core CPI print – let's say over 4.3%, married with a tick up in the well-watched ‘supercore’ print (core CPI ex-services & ex-shelter print). This potential outcome may force the Fed's hand at the November FOMC and compel them to hike by a final 25bp. The result would likely be further new cycle highs in US nominal and real Treasury yields, with the USD finding fresh buyers and taking a new leg up. A higher USD driven not by resilient growth dynamics (and increased supply), but by a turn in inflation would not be taken well by equity markets or risk assets more broadly. Gold would trade closer to $1800 and the VIX would trade towards 25%. It could also accelerate the prospect that the BoJ/MoF intervene to support the JPY. As traders we manage risk, and we attempt to price certainty – a renewed rise in US core inflation seems a low probability, but it is a scenario which could play out and the risk needs to be managed. Any situation which threatens the market's central vision and pricing will create sizeable market volatility. Could the USD be looking to take a new leg higher? Potentially, and we can also need to consider a world where inflation does fall as expected to target and labour markets cool. However, if we’re assessing what could really get volatility pumping it’s the idea of the Fed hiking in November and inflation threatening the market’s trajectory on inflation. It pays to recognise the risk, keep an open mind, and be prepared to react - it will serve you well in markets.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by Pepperstone
The Dow DilemmaWe are at a crossroads. As if we have nothing to invest in. Gold is, in absolute terms, highly overpriced. Gold is more than 50% above the 24 year average. And highly diverging... It still is the massive elephant in the room. Yield rates are the small rat in the room. Due to fast rate hikes, the bond market has suffered incalculable losses. Gold (elephant), just like many people, are afraid of rats (and yield rates). Current consensus is that yield rates are to grow forever, pushing dollar in all-time highs. But consensus cannot take us far... Dollar is showing signs of weakness. The rate hike party may not last long... And equities are still problematic. With massive amounts of money printed in the last 3 years, surely the problems are yet to come. In the main title I talked about a dilemma. DJI divided by Money Supply is warning us. But who is listening? Everyone seems to have disappeared. I am walking around with a lantern in my hand, looking for people, just like Diogenes the Cynic did. This is the micro view. Let's see at the macro view. DJI is joking to us. Short-term it shows clear weakness signals. Long-term it shows the most bullish of signals. My opinion? I expect short-term problems in the equity market. But the problems that may come could be smaller than anyone expects. A relentless equity bubble may form, trapping investors who brace for a downwards impact. In the end, things are not as simple as we may think... And all we are left with is a dilemma. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
DJ:DJI
by akikostas
7
GOLD SHORT TO 1767 (4H UPDATE)📉Now that TP1's been hit, our focus turns towards TP2, something that we knew could happen as highlighted on the first analysis, but still saw as unlikely. However, now it's looking very possible! In order for this move to playout, we are looking for the following👇🏽 1. Consolidation. 2. Breakout (Expansion to Downside). 3. Retest of Expansion Zone. Price of grey expansion zone will become more clear once breakout happens. Will try to keep you all updated on the move as it happens. If market does a U-Turn we will also update accordingly.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
2
GOLD SHORT TO 1767 (4H UPDATE)📉Now that TP1's been hit, our focus turns towards TP2, something that we knew could happen as highlighted on the first analysis, but still saw as unlikely. However, now it's looking very possible! In order for this move to playout, we are looking for the following👇🏽 1. Consolidation. 2. Breakout (Expansion to Downside). 3. Retest of Expansion Zone. Price of grey expansion zone will become more clear once breakout happens. Will try to keep you all updated on the move as it happens. If market does a U-Turn we will also update accordingly.
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
US 10Y TREASURY: digesting week is over?Markets spend the previous week digesting the latest information from the FOMC meeting regarding interest rates levels in the coming period, as well as FOMC economic projections for the next two years. It all created one quite a challenging week on US financial markets, as well as for the US Treasuries. The 10Y yields reached 4.5% immediately after the Fed Chair speech after the FOMC meeting on September 20th, however, during the previous week yields continued to surge further, reaching the highest weekly level at 4.67%. This could be treated as a sort of market overreaction, as yields soon returned to the level of 4.57% where they are finishing the week. Yields continued to move within an overbought momentum for a second week in a row. This adds to the high probability that yields will further move toward the 4.5% levels which is more realistic to current economic prospectus and wording supported by the Fed. At this moment on charts, a 4.3% level could be the next target for 10Y yields, however, it might take some week or more until yields clearly reach this level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
XAUUSD This is the only way it can realistically reverse.Gold (XAUUSD) hit yesterday the bottom of the Channel Down pattern that started after the July 20 High. This is a short-term buy signal targeting its top (Lower Highs) but on the long-term Gold has been on a downtrend since the May 04 All Time High (ATH). Following the rise on the June 29 Low, Gold was still on a long-term uptrend, supported by a Higher Lows trend-line. That trend-line broke after both the US10Y (blue trend-line) and the DXY (green trend-line) invalidated their bearish patterns (US10Y broke above its 4.070 Resistance, DXY broke above its Lower Highs trend-line) and both entered Channel Up formations. Since Gold is for the most part negatively correlated to the two, it should be no surprise that it started the Channel Down we discussed out at the same time. Realistically we can only expect a long-term bullish reversal on Gold after the Channel Down patterns of the DXY and US10Y break downwards and mostly the latter, which as you see is more tightly correlated to Gold. Until then, a potential bottom rebound can only be a short-term buy signal for Gold. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
2
Why we expect EURUSD SPX to keep falling.Dear fellows. In this short video we present our case that EURUSD tracks US10Y since 2020 on an inverse relationship. We also expect the yield curve to keep steepening, and by assuming Fed funds rate "higher for longer", US10Y is expected to rise further. Higher US10Y, thus, implies in lower EURUSD and SPX, as well as other major market indexes. The particular dynamics of each does not ensure a day to day follow up, however, eventually they do catch up. Thank you very much for your time. Critics and suggestions are welcome. Best regards.
TVC:US10YShort
by greenfield_br
3
US10Y: Short term pullback ahead.The US10Y hit the top of the five month Channel Up, which started after a 5 time hold on the Support Zone, while the RSI shifted to LH (RSI = 68.642, MACD = 0.088, ADX = 56.354). Having completed a common +12% increase, we get the same sell signal as all prior Higher Lows. Our target is Fibonacci 0.5 (TP = 4.315%), highly likely on course for contact with the 1D MA50. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
1
US 10Y TREASURY: at overbought sideFed Chair Powell's speech after the FOMC meeting, held on Wednesday significantly moved the markets during the second half of the previous week. A “higher for longer” wording used by FOMC members was not welcomed by the market. Fed Chair Powell mentioned another rate hike till the end of this year, with an expected rate cut somewhere during the end of the next year. FOMC projected reference rates to end 2024 at 5.1%. Such projections implied immediate market reaction and 10Y yields reached their highest levels since 2007 and level of 4.50%. Yields are ending the week at a level of 4.43%. RSI index reached a clear overbought side, which would in the case of 10Y yields, mean that the market had priced in new information received from Fed Chair Powell. There will be another rate hike till the end of this year, and a level of 4.5% has been priced. From now on, it could be expected some relaxation in the yields, which might return slowly to the level of 4.3% in the coming period. The level of uncertainty is currently increased on the market, but at this moment, further move beyond 4.5% level should not be expected.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
GOLD READY FOR NEW ATH?! (UPDATE)🚀My bullish stance on Gold still remains the same. Yesterday when Gold sell's got closed out, the bullish momentum violated a lot of structures to the upside, indicating a possible change in direction. As long as Gold remains above the last low of $1,901 I am still bullish. However, if Gold breaks back below the low of $1,885 we can go back to looking for our original sell targets of $1,887 - $1,850📉 Either way we closed out Gold sells at £8,000 profit so we can't lose either way!
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
2
GOLD READY FOR NEW ATH?!🚀Is Gold getting ready to surpass its current high & reach a new one? Very high possibility! Even though a little more downside is expected, this version could also play out very well. I am currently holding short positions, but will open a buy as a hedge. I will keep you updated on this move! We've seen a Wave 1 & Wave 2 completion on the 12HR TF, followed by a CHOC + BOS which indicates a change in trend direction. If market can BREAK ABOVE the last high of $1,952 this move here will be a very good play to get into.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
1
Who's ready for a FRED 50 Trillion Balance Sheet? I Am. Japan has no completely lost control of their bond yields. Japan has completely lost control the US Yield Curve Control. The FRED paused (as I expected they had no choice). The FRED realizing they need to initiate YCC / QE / Rate Cuts before end of 2023 or we're going to see an economic meltdown. Option 1, let yields raise > mortgages blow up > bank collateral blows up bail out 100 Trillion. Option 2, start YCC / QE / Rate Cuts down > things don't blow up but spend 50 Trillion. What's hilarious is there is ZERO news coverage on this ZERO, the USA setup a YCC facility with the BOJ to patch bond yields yet the JAPANESE currency CANNOT handle it and the BOJ is starting to actually panic / tap out. People waiting for a "country" to enact the third world war, I'll give you a hint they always start when some major financial system breaks. That's this this is where we are at. Japan has a GDP of only 4.941 Trillion, if they initiate more YCC / QE they will start to turn into the Turkish Lira and then mass people are going to panic about US bonds. THERE IS ZERO chance we get to 2025 without a FRED balance sheet of over at least 30 Trillion, buckle up.
TVC:US10Y
by FederalXBT
Is this US01Y wick going to crash the crypto market ?!Obviously as money flows into cash it flows out of assets If rates on US bonds rise then the incentive to hold cash increases which dries up liquidity almost everywhere else. We are seeing very bullish signs (current data/can fail and reverse) for both US Dollar and US Yields. Which of course correlates to bearish signs for assets prices (bitcoin/stocks/real estate). US administration may want to have the pain now before US election year Rampant inflation is not great for an administration to have during an election year.. so having that curbed as much as plausible before election year is important. Which allows an administration room to create stimulus during election cycle (to win votes). Essentially get inflation in order now so they can create more inflation('stimulus') later. This would be the outlook of pushing asset prices down now so theres room to push them up coming into elections. If that US01Y wick is filled then crypto should fall Filling that wick would likely not only increase the yield curve inversion but also force asset prices lower. If it can be timed then we may see BTC price fall pre election but allow US01Y to fall come election. Which in turn allows BTC price to rise come election. This all of course overlaps with BTC halving. The important thing is to be liquid both financially and mentally to changes. If USD and rates continue to rise then dont want to be too(!) asset exposed and missing out on the USD/rate rise benefits. That said.. if USD/rates fail this break out of course dont want to miss out on asset price boom. Need to be okay either way this goes.. whilst looking for low risk opportunities to rebalance exposure with changes in the flow of capital (and data)
TVC:DXYLong
by SoftQuant
8