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US10Y

US10Y - ST Pullback in Yield Ahead? Charted is a proposed price pathway for the 10yr T Bonds. I'm looking for an easing in yield soon... in the 4.125 area (.786 Fib level) specifically, sometime in early March. This will represent the top of the b wave of wave 4 off the Aug. 2020 low. This expectation flies in the face of recently released inflation related news. As such my parameters are well defined here. A move beyond the afore mentioned yield will make me reassess the trade. I'm seeing correlated markets showing signs of synergy with the expected outcome of this move. Specifically I am expecting a move up in oil, technical ST pullback in DXY and a technical bounce in gold...which will fail and complete a fantastic short set-up. See my Gold idea...
TVC:US10Y
by oliverrathbun
2
The (4) Four Charts I am watching closely todayPull these charts up on your radar. They are key. With today’s spike on the VIX, we may see key resistance and support lines break. If any one of these critical trendlines/levels are broken, much more caution is warranted on the long side. Let’s quickly run through the charts I am observing. DXY - A break to the upside of that macro uptrend (with confirmation on the daily) indicates a stronger dollar. A stronger dollar price must be calculated into current stock prices, weakening the current stock momentum. US500 - Testing that Macro Uptrend as support. A break below may indicate further downside (pending FED language following FOMC press conference). US Treasuries - Both the 10 year and the 2 year are pushing up against resistance. A break to the topside would indicate that the FED will continue its aggressive rate hikes strategy to tackle inflation. The dollar will follow with strength. The markets will depress even further. Crypto will follow. Treasuries seem to indicate that the FED will continue its aggression against inflation. We must pay attention closely to those purple lines/levels. Also to note, Bitcoin is up against its 200-week ma. I don’t see that be broken immediately without some setback prior. The Bitcoin price battle with the 200 weekly ma may be the earliest indicator we have to what might follow in the next few days/weeks. As always, be cautious. Don’t bite too hard on these last few weeks of bullish price action. Dollar-cost average yourself in. Place those stops. And best of luck to you all! Stew
TVC:DXY
by stewdamus
Keep a close eye on this breakout!Traders, Keep a close eye on this breakout on our fear index. So far, nothing significant has followed to the same level of price movement: the dollar is still under its macro-uptrend resistance, the US500 is still using its macro-uptrend for support logarithmically, and the US10yr/US2yr remains under resistance. But we want to track this closely to find out the legitimacy of this spike in fear. Confirmation can be had if one of the indicators mentioned above follows and breaks its support/resistance (see yesterday's video for more). Best, Stew
TVC:VIX
by stewdamus
Gold Long to 1854 (HEDGE ANALYSIS)📈From analysing market structure, there’s a possibility that Gold could be entering a Wave 2 corrective phase, allowing sellers to rest & re-accumulate more positions from 1854-1874📈 ⭕️Gold Oversold ⭕️Price Imbalance ⭕️Wave 1 Cycle Complete Will ONLY be opening buy positions, if we see a 3 sub-wave (A,B,C) move towards 1832. A straight drop down isn’t a buying confirmation. Drop a like & follow to keep up to date!
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
2
CRUDE OIL TO HIT $160?😳 (Long analysis)What you are seeing on the chart, is price action of Oil prices on the 2D timeframe. Crude Oil finally bottomed at the end of November, just a little after Gold & since then has been making its way back to the upside. I believe we are now at the bottom of the market & getting ready for a long term uptrend towards $160📈 All commodities like Gold & Oil are in a long term uptrend from a technical stance hence why were buying. As western nations put a cap on Oil prices, Oil prices will keep shooting higher, making it expensive for countries who follow these sanctions. Russia has also threatened to stop doing business with countries who follow U.S. sanctions. Will this PLANNED Oil shortage & price rise be the next pandemic? Is this what will force the everyday person to start switching to Hybrid & electric vehicles?
TVC:USOILLong
by BA_Investments
3
Uncontrollable Inflation?Will inflation get under control? This is a question that spins on my mind. This chart clears the picture. On the top of the equation we have "long-term inflation", calculated by GOLD*PPIACO On the bottom we have the true equity value, calculated by modified-yields*SPX modified-yields = US10Y+1+1/US10Y. It follows the standard US10Y chart. This chart tells us something alarming, that no matter the politics, we are inside a massive bull-flag. This chart below, measures the long-term inflation compared to total-money-earned-from-bonds. Another golden bull-flag appears, which found support on the 1980 peak. Commodities could over-perform any attempt we have at stopping the inflationary pressures. Any upwards move on yields, will have multiplicative increase in commodity cost. Take a look at SPY_Master's ideas regarding bull-flags. He is the inspiration of the GOLD*PPIACO chart. He basically used GOLD*DBC as a good measure of inflation. I replaced DBC with PPIACO for longer-term analysis. Now I will explain how and why these charts work. On the top we have GOLD*PPIACO. Gold is measured in dollars, while PPIACO not exactly... So on the numerator there is only one occurence of dollar value. M2SL moves exponentially compared to PPIACO. So PPIACO by itself doesn't get inflated by money printing. On the denominator, on the one chart we have (mod-yields)*SPX, which is again measured in dollars, but SPX is transformed for the "true" value of dollar. I thank SPY_Master once again for the inspiration. He invented the SPX/(1/US10Y) = SPX*US10Y chart. On the other chart we basically have the total money made from bonds. Total money printed is transformed for their cost. In reality this denominator measures the true value of all money printed. So it is once again normalized. Finally, look at this chart which compares equities with long-term inflation. Any upwards move on equities, will have multiplicative increase in commodity cost. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I am not a trader, these charts are not "tradeable". In fact, they could give someone second thoughts on investing. I don't have second thoughts on investing. These charts help us understand that sometimes, things are not as straightforward as we would hope. PS2. To anyone who hasn't played Half-Life 2, Father Grigori is the guardian of a city called Ravenholm. We don't go there anymore. PS3. My name implies that I am a priest of sorts, I unofficially could be one. Officially, I am not a priest. I am in love with how nature (and God) shows up in the most amazing of places. These golden flags are not random... Nothing is random. For example, look at this incredibly accurate chart. PS4. Please don't fill this comment section with arguments about faith and God, if you believe in one (or many) or if you don't believe in one (or many). These kinds of conversations tend to go up in flames. Please keep the peace.
TVC:GOLD
by akikostas
13
USDJPY LONG ANALYSIS TO $139📈The Dollar Yen has completed its fifth wave to the downside, marking the completion of its first major wave (Wave 1). This will now be followed by a 3 sub-wave correction back towards the upside, which counts as Wave 2. Targeting $139 - $140. Similar to all other markets correlating positively to the DXY, USDJPY is only facing a temporary upside, before the bears later take control📉 760 PIPS profit from current market price. Only suitable for big accounts, who can handle swing trading. Make sure to drop a follow and like. Let me know if you agree with this bias✅
Long
by BA_Investments
US10Y: Short the next spikeFamiliar pattern for the US10Y as with the support of the 4H MA200 it is repeating the mid December +13.50% rise. In perfect symmetry a new +13.50% rise tops on the Resistance provided by the first Lower High of the down leg, same as the November 13th Lower High. The 1D technicals have just come out of neutrality (RSI = 57.935, MACD = 0.009, ADX = 33.193) and an additional short trigger will be the next time the 4H RSI turns overbought above 75.00. Our short term target is right above the Support (TP = 3.340%). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
5