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US10Y

BTCUSD vs US01YUS10Y has been crazy lately. It has broken an all time down-trend channel and was moving just like we would like BTC to move. But anyways... Why does this affect the market ? When confidence is high, 10-year bond prices fall and yields climb. This is because investors believe they can find higher-yielding investments elsewhere and do not believe they need to be conservative. In other terms - if risk assets bad, us10y good and vice-versa. As we can tell by the chart - investors have been running away to US Government backed Treasury bond to save themselves from the drops. But what now, when we're reaching high levels? At first US10Y was driving up together with the rest of the markets - since covid's '20 crash we experienced a massive bounce (or pump) on all assets. This positive correlation has lasted until breaking the descending resistance on US10Y - since then the correlation was only negative for crypto and it is there, where risk-assets investors started saving their funds into bonds. Right now US10Y is approaching a really big confluence of resistance: ascending triangle target, long time resistance level and top of curvy channel. Crossing this is almost impossible, specially if last weeks were growing evenly week by week creating a stair-like growth . And those like to drop heavily afterwards... + we're at resistance (reminder). If US10Y bounces down now, it would mean BTC $17k was a local bottom (not long term, just for now!) and could make up all the fall it had until now as investors would re-enter risk-on assets Where would BTC bounce to ? $38k-$40k if euphoria doesn't drive it further. It was since then when BTC started falling down without retesting broken levels. Hope this helped you understand markets a little bit more today. If there's nothing new to you here - you are an MVP. Cheers! PS: Too early to judge, but if the price bounces to those levels - it would create a cup/handle pattern. All is in FED's hands now.
TVC:US10YShort
by TheSecretsOfTrading
Market Rotation from risk to safety.1st Vertical Line in bottom two charts show risk assets peaking such as Nasdaq and Bitcoin while the top two charts suggest a bottom confirmation by both US dollar and US 10 year treasury bills. Horizontal line shows major penetration of support and/or resistance for all four charts. Penetration to the upside for top 2 charts, while penetration to the downside for risk assets. 2nd vertical line marks the point of penetration for support and/or resistance. Why the strong correlation? Market rotation from risk to safety and there's no other way to buy US treasury bills than to pay with US dollars.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MKS_ARA
Why Bonds Might Be Nearing LowsBonds have continued their decline as the markets price in a potentially historic FOMC rate hike this week. Inflation data suggests that the Fed's rate hike trajectory is not really working and inflation is still soaring. On the other hand, multiple indicators suggest that we are in a recession, and the Fed will have to pivot their hawkish stance after this last rate hike. If that is the case, then we expect the bond market to be nearing lows. We have one more technical level before we will have to start using inverse Fibonacci extension levels to predict lows in bonds again, as 113'12 is our last technical level. The Kovach OBV also appears to be leveling off. The next targets from above are 115'03 and 115'29.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
2
#US10Y #Bonds Can Fall From This FCP ZoneTraders & Investors, US 10 Year Bonds have been on the rise. After a minor correction they rose higher but now they could be approaching an FCP zone which can act as a resistance. We also have Relative Strength Index divergence setting up on weekly time frame. Out this on your watch list as this can impact stock market, indices and other asset classes due to money flow from this asset class. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:US10Y
by vikinsa
DESCENDING CHANNEL - Range Trading StrategyHello my Fellow TraderZ, Today this is not any Trade idea but a TUTORIAL on how to Trade the RANGE or the CHANNEL. This is simple, safe, profitable and straight forward Price Action strategy. Here we are taking the chart of US Govt. Bond 10Y-yield. This is the perfect setup of DECENDING CHANNEL on MONTHLY chart. No time bound you can trade at any TIMEFRAMES, but Higher Time Frames are more reliable. You see, to draw any Trendline we need minimum 2/3 touch points. Whenever the price touches the Trendline, never open any Trade in RUSH, wait, see the kind of candles forming at Touch Points (at LOWER TL = BULLISH PA, at UPPER TL = BEARISH PA). PA = Price Action. This should be coupled with the VOLUME. Notice the S/R areas, where price gives multiple hits before bounce or rejection. This will give you extra boost as these horizontal S/R are more reliable than Dynamic S/R. Also these areas could be your Pivots to make ENTRY(incase price doesn't hit the channel Trendlines) or TP Targets. Look at the Percentage(%) wise gains simply following the channel(BUY THE LOW, SELL THE HIGH). Well I've just mentioned the BUYS, you can add the short positions also. Until the price is in channel you can take Multiple Trades both LONGing and SHORTing the market, unless the channel Breaks. This is the beauty of Range Trading. Similarly you can trade ASCENDING CHANNEL/WEDGES as well. NOTE : PRICE ACTION is majorly important in the Game of Trading. If you like this content, kindly give a FOLLOW & BOOST to me. Also COMMENT to bring more such #educational contents. Sorry if its a bit Lengthy post. Happy Trading . CHEERS!!!
TVC:US10YEducation
by TRADER-GOKU
1
Combined Macro Charts For You!I'm a big fan of exotic charts. It is often tough to gauge the current markets by looking at individual charts so sometimes I like to combine them together. Here is a rough rationale of this chart: TOTAL Crypto Total seems to have a good representation small cap behavior and is often a leading indicator of the broader risk-on market. S&P Large caps, historically it's a trailing indicator, but doesn't have such a long tail as Treasury Yields. 1/DXY Relatively good indicator of impedance changes. If I'm going to convert my dollars to something else, and then back again, it represents relatively how efficient the economic circuit is. More volatility = conflicting expectations by the market. It is sometimes inversely correlated with risk assets but not always. US02Y/US10Y Inverted 10Y/02Y. How are investors feeling about the short-term economy vs long-term? When this symbol experiences large downward volatility, the relative health of debt in the economy is unveiled and investors flee risk-on assets. I weighted each of these symbols 25% by using the 3 Year MA: ...........................3Y.MA......................factor TOTAL................1049933961759.....1 ES1!..................3723.74..................281956839 1/DXY...............0.010448................100491382251052 US02Y/US10Y..0.4784....................2194678013710 (sorry about all the dots, I had to use it to make it line up) Here is the resulting symbol: CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839+US02Y/US10Y*2194678013710 Normalized to 100: (CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839+US02Y/US10Y*2194678013710)/67060000000 Here is the index without Treasury Yields, so each remaining symbol is now 33% of the chart: CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839 Normalized to 100: (CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839)/53870000000 Here is the chart, normalized to 100 along with some rough expectations: I hope that this is somehow useful. The overall conclusion here seems to indicate the macro environment is currently not friendly at all. Thanks for taking a look and I hope you enjoyed this idea. Hopefully it makes sense and I don't believe there are any major mistakes. If you spot a mistake, or have an exotic chart of your own you would like to share, please let me know! Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets. Take care and be safe. - your fringe chartist
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by fringe_chartist
2
US10Y SHORT IDEACurrently monitoring a range of instruments with regards to the economic disaster that is currently unfolding before our eyes. Have taken measures to cut off from the world, and focus purely on technicals. Somethings going to give soon... Will it be the US10Y? Looking at the lower timeframes, we can see a revisit back up to the 78.6% level for the second time, right at this specific point in time, was the release of Non Farm Payrolls, prev: 526k, Con: 300k, Act: 316k. Currently monitoring the move up through the timeframes, witnessed the move occur on 15m ripple chart, which was the break down past scalper and boundary cloud. Retesting the underside of the scalper and moving lower. On the WAVE chart we see its currently held up by the WAVE Dynamic resistance. if that breaks we see a shift in trend on the 15m & 1hr. Will place this here for now and possibly update this as time goes by.
TVC:US10YShort
by TraderE9
US10Y. P-Modeling Pt 1. Yields of Cajun Welcome Hyperspace Travelers. Proposition development is rendered. SPX is going to fresh multigenerational lows. The cybernetic era of advancement is upon us. The 4th industrial revolution is imminent. Things will get better. But first they must get very bad. Massive co-variate weight distribution imminent. Wealth distribution will be forced from top 1% into lower 90%. Technical Complexity is defined by linear and cyclic domains. Each domain combined created this gorgeous technical formation. Complex Technical Formation on 1 Week Macro Analysis of US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield. Harmonic Handle string sequencing. Defined Cajun Cup. Defined C-A harmonic equalization. Defined Linear Root. Defined Cyclic Root. ____________________________ Start: 1980. End: 2025. Tap: Mean Reversion at minimum. Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me, Glitch420
TVC:US10YLong
by Glitch420
6
Potential Long on GOLD after nice pullback. I've managed to catch a nice pullback on gold and expected the bearish will soon. Next, we are expecting gold to continue on bullish movement as it finishes doing some pullback. There are pretty interesting key levels to watch especially on a daily timeframe and we need to pay extra attention to this key level to whether gold will continue downward or start to climb back as on rejection on the weekly trendline (blue line). Overall I am biased on bullish on gold. Levels of entry SL and TP are as on the chart. Trade safe and take care everyone.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by fakhruddinradi
Forget All Other ChartsIgnore all the other charts right now. They are based on DOLLARS. The dollar is permanently unstable and your imperialist overlords are here to take away your spending power. We're due to see bearish action similar to April 5th (pink dot). The question is, will we see a lower high in relative yields, or will we set a higher low and possibly become uninverted, and return above 1.0 once again? Consider that we just set a higher high in the S&P medium term and it could have simply been a move to fool the crowd. On the other hand, debt is at all time highs, and rates even at this level mean systemic insolvency. Raising rates further means quicker insolvency. I say just get it over with or don't do it at all. Inflation year over year is, realistically, 20-40%, each year since 2020. Key interest rates aren't even 10% of that. There is no way they will be able to control this in any way, shape or form, or manufacture a so called "soft landing". Rates rise >1.0 = total collapse, then easing Rates bounce <1.0 = unrealistic rally blow off top, more tightening to trigger the crash I think I used too many arrows but hopefully it makes sense. Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets.
TVC:US10Y
by fringe_chartist
11
Yield curve inversion cyclesUS10Y treasury yield minus US02Y treasury yield is an accurate predictor of impending economic recession. Here we compare the 10 Aug 2022 yield curve inversion low point to the low points in 2007 and 2000 that pre-dated the Great Recession and Dot Com stock market crashes. While a small inversion (below 0) does not always pre-date a recession, inversions as low as the current 10 Aug 2022 always have. Even more interesting is when you zoom in to the daily chart. Here we see the 10Y - 2Y moving back towards 0 from 10 Aug 2022 through 22 Aug 2022, even as stocks have begun to decline since release of the Fed minutes and recent commentary from Fed officials about the importance of continuing with additional rate hikes based on current inflation data.
TVC:US10Y
by theagileagent
5
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline inflation at 8.5%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their July meeting, and continuing with QT. Despite the increased fears of a possible recession, the Fed minutes confirmed that the Fed is far away from stopping rate hikes and squashed hopes of a Jackson Hole dovish pivot. The Fed did announce a more data-dependent stance at their July policy meeting, explaining that the pace of hikes is likely to slow as rates get more restrictive and as more data becomes available. STIR markets have repriced lower to reflect this. With the Fed signalling data-dependence, the incoming growth, inflation and jobs data will be a key driver for USD price action where we expect a cyclical reaction to incoming data (good data being good and bad data being bad for the USD and US10Y). But the USD safe haven status is important to keep in mind. Even though price pulled back after the Fed’s July meeting, the still uncomfortably high inflation and Fed minutes saw a Jackson Hole Symposium Pivot pushed back and this has seen similar support for the USD like we saw from the start of the year where bonds pushed lower, and the USD gained on safe haven demand. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed’s data-dependent messaging pushing rates lower, any incoming data that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or comments from the FOMC that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions. As the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big flush in risk assets and triggers a rush to safety should be positive for the USD. Any further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields (commodity prices, actual inflation and inflation expectations, more aggressive tightening rhetoric from Fed) could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. The USD is trading close to cycle highs while aggregate CFTC positioning is close to levels that previously acted as local tops. Stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to shortterm corrections, especially with bad US data points. With a lot still priced for the Fed, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about growth than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD, but with inflation so high any major dovish pivots seem a while away. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. However, the data dependence stance from the Fed means we want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, it could impact the USD negatively, even though current inflation suggests any dovish pivot seems a while away. Also, as the safe haven of choice, any further recession focused downside in risk assets or continued downside in US bonds due to sticky inflation and an aggressive Fed could continue to prove supportive for the USD. In the short-term though, with positioning in mind, and a dual-growth narrative (one being good for the USD and the other being bad for the USD) we prefer short-term catalysts that offer short-term sentiment-based trades. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE In recent weeks, yield differentials have been the biggest negative driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, the BoJ’s reluctance to shift on policy even with inflation starting to push higher remains a negative driver for the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, inflows has been limited in the current bear market compared to other cycles. The reason is Japan’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports the bulk of their commodities , so very high energy prices has added to downside. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them. Having said that, US10Y and commodities have been reacting more and more negative to the current negative cyclical growth outlook, and as a result has seen big players trim their massive JPY shorts. But this past week’s push higher in yields was a friendly reminder that inflation and yield differentials remain a major downside risk for the JPY, despite the negative cyclical outlook. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation ) could trigger upside in JPY, which means inflation data will be important to keep on the radar. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US inflation , faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY ) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US inflation , better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY, and further reluctance from the BoJ to pivot away from very dovish policy is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. If the BoJ pushes back against calls for a policy shift despite upside surprise in CPI could trigger further JPY downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script at their July meeting. As long as US10Y remain elevated and the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower and bullish reactions can see outsized upside on big drops in US10Y & commodities . It also means watching incoming CPI data closely as any huge upside surprises could trigger speculation of a possible policy shift.
by thunderpips
2
DXY's delayed reaction to yieldsI had this confusing idea and I will show it to you with this confusing chart. 1. First we define the blue vertical lines. These are the drawn on the date of the peak of yield. ( Even though yields drop, dollar continues to grow. Like a delayed reaction. Unsurprisingly, yields lead DXY growth. ) 2. Then we draw fib retracements, with 1 being the DXY value at the time of yields peaking. And 0 being the bottom of the DXY jump. The peak of DXY is conveniently at 1.618. (or maybe I conveniently drew the chart such that 1.618 appears every time, to further validate myself) 3. When yields return to "normal levels" (red vertical lines), DXY dives. The location of the red vertical lines, as well as what is defined as "normal yield level" are defined by the arbitrary target of 1.618 I put. IF yields have already peaked, and if my theory is correct, DXY will reach 120, and when yields return to where they were. Even if the price target is inaccurate, the fact that DXY continues to grow after yields peak, cannot be ignored.
TVC:DXYLong
by akikostas