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US10Y

BTC and US10Y / A negative correlation or a leading indicator ?We' re examining a correlation between BTC and US10Y 1. taking into account negative correlation between BTC and US10Y past 2 months, IF US10Y rejects at weekly resistance with doji candle, we'll see pump in BTC. 2. Considering that US10Y has broken multi months trendline and after retest will continue it's pump and it is a leading indictor ahead 1-2 months, we'll see BTC pump as well. 3. But if US10Y continues pump and negative correlation stays between them, after retest/short term BTC pump>retest 28K and maybe 35-36K / we'll see further drop in BTC
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ergal91
US10Y making H&S topping pattern with long weekly hammer?US10Y TNX may be topping out. It is both a measure of economic activity & inflation expectation. So is the economy starting to slow down or is inflation slowing down shortterm? It will take years for inflation to come down. If the FED can pull inflation down to at least 4% in a soft landing, it will already be a big success. Stagflation (rising inflation in a slowing economy) is still a big risk, which may take years to recover. A hard landing & aggressive rate hikes may be devastating for stocks but the economy may recover faster. More pain more gain. A topping TNX will be good for TLT bonds & growth stocks. Next supports are 3% & the H&S neck at 2.7%. A measured move for H&S may take TNX to the yellow 2% upper pivot zone, retesting the blue wedge or maybe to retest the big red downchannel from 1981. Not trading advice
TVC:US10YShort
by xtremerider8
US10Y bounced off the 2018 high and fell back to the 50MAThis is temporary until we see some serious inflation abatement. This pull back is flight from equities driven bonds catch a bid. iF THE REAL economy doesn't improve soon then the bonds only support is flight from worse outcomes. Also the fed balance sheet run off will support yields in the medium term as it constitutes a supply increase. So if inflation persists and liquidity dries up from fed tightening yields may move sideways.....and break the older channel. Go gold. I was long TBT for quite a while but that play is uncertain here.
TVC:US10Y
by Ruthenium
US 10Y Treasuries Short Term BearishCurrently watching the 10Y Treasury Yield to hit resistance and pull back. 3% should be a big resistance level for now. Short term Fibonacci target of ~2.6%. This will be bullish for equities. The recent pivot low broke structure to the left, where the low in late April was broken. This is now a bearish retracement towards the highs, and will be watching for fib levels or a double top as resistance. The bigger picture monthly chart (below) shows a big supply zone resistance at 3%. This area of supply has been hit, and a further reaction to the downside expected. Also, the yield is stretched away from the monthly 21ema, with the 21ema currently below the 200sma. The stochastic momentum index (SMI) is also on overbought zone with bearish divergence.
TVC:US10YShort
by FourC
#TNX #US10Y 10 year yield at a top?So the 10 year yield has run hard on interest rate hike expectations. However, as can be seen from the chart, the yield is currently about 93% above its 50 month moving average, the highest it has ever been...by far. Using the TD indicator one can also see that the yields are potentially topping this month. As can be seen from the Stochastic and RSI below, both are at major tops. The yields and DXY priced in a more hawkish FED the last couple of days since we got the higher than expected CPI reading on 10 June. Chances are that the FED will not be able to continue with higher interest rate hikes as this will crash the market. So, the yields and DXY might have been running based on expectations but might revert quite a bit on actual release of FED interest rate decisions tomorrow.
TVC:TNX
by chsmit
US10Y Slowly upwards to the end of year, huge rejection after.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone with Higher Highs and Lower Lows since late 2013. The current 1W RSI pattern resembles that of the price Channel Up that in 1 year led to the most recent Higher High in 2018. As a result, we expect a slow Channel Up towards the end of 2022/ early 2023, which will add to the current stock market uncertainty/ volatility, but then strong bearish reversal, if the Higher Highs trend-line/ top of the Megaphone holds. That can fuel a strong bullish reversal on the stock market (S&P500 index displayed in blue on this chart), as it happened in 2019. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
7
US10Y Aggressive correction possibleThe U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a short-term Channel Down on the 1D time-frame with the 4H MA100 (red trend-line) as the Resistance and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Support. This is turning into a tight squeeze and whatever level breaks first, should give us the direction on the longer term. A break below the 1D MA50 can see the price correct aggressively by filling the gaps on the lower MA levels, the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and eventually the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). In that case the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level would be a fair target. This resembles so far the correction of April - July 2021, which bottomed below the 1D MA200. On the other hand, I expect a bullish extension if the 3.205 High breaks towards the -0.236 Fib. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
4
US10Y broke a historic trend-line from 1981. What's next?The US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield, broke last month above a historic Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding since September 1981. This chart is on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. By doing so, it also broke above the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in history as well. Even though it hasn't broken above the previous Lower High of November 2018, which is currently the Resistance, we have to consider the implications of this historic break-out. The 1M RSI has also hit a multi-year long Higher Highs trend-line and got rejected, making it a Resistance. Unless the November 2018 High breaks, we may see the 1M MA200, even the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) being tested as Supports. A break above the November 2018 High though, will basically confirm a historic change on yields, especially as the Fed has already announced plans to continue raising the interest rates aggressively in an attempt to battle the raging inflation. The green trend-line on the chart represents the Federal Funds Rate and as you see its Highs have historically matched roughly the Highs of the US10Y. Since the Rate is now still relatively low and as per the Fed's remarks, we are still early in the rate hike cycle, we can see the US10Y break much higher in an aggressive manner in the following months. So what do you think? Does this break mark a historic change on bond yields? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
5
Joe Gun2Head Trade - US 10 Year Yield topping out?Trade Idea: US 10 Year Yield topping out? Reasoning: Head and shoulders top on the hourly chart Entry Level: 2.842 Take Profit Level: 2.617 Stop Loss: 2.922 Risk/Reward: 2.81:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
TVC:US10YShort
by Signal_Centre