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US10Y

Waiting for the worst...In the chart we have the SPX versus the US10Y (US 10 Year Government Bonds Yeld Rate, in the blue line). We are at a peak moment. In principle, the rate in US10Y is inverse, that is, when it goes down, more people are buying — more people leave the stock market and buy government bonds. The correlation with SPX is high in periods of extreme volatility, as shown in the circles. Frighteningly, the US10Y is close to the same levels as March/2018 and October/2018. If it drops like it did before, will we see a strong correction in global markets? Analyzing the US10Y alone: The US10Y has broken up a long bearish channel. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicates an extremely stretched value, signaling a possible reversal to the downside. On the weekly chart it is in a resistance test region, similar to the periods mentioned.
SP:SPXShort
by andre_007
US10Y-US02Y Yields Are Steepening NOWAhead of incredibly important CPI data to be released tomorrow, we are seeing yields steepen in a very dramatic fashion. In comparison to each of the last 3 inversions, this one is not even close to the past. It is important to understand that when yields steepen , it systematically leads to downside in the SPX/NASDAQ. It has been the indicator of almost every recession since 1980 . Now we can't jump to conclusions just yet, we can only try to anticipate what comes next. Tomorrow key CPI data gets released which is why markets are selling off in the face of it. This data will be the reason for the next move up or down. Focusing back on the chart, we can see just how far yields have deviated from the 200MA. In comparison to the past, this is the farthest divergence on record. IF yields were to retest that 200MA, it would almost certainly lead the markets down a very dark path rather quickly. We are seeing a clear momentum gain on the RSI to match this. Now let's take a look at the previous two inversions not shown in the chart; (2000, 2008) First, take note of where the 200MA is here in comparison to now. Second, notice when yields are Steepening the SPX is falling. They have an inverse correlation. Take a look at how extended the NASDAQ is still; The same can be said about the SPX; There are very significant moves being made in the markets at this moment, and it will take absolute diligence to ensure survivability if the markets take us down a dark path ahead. For now, pay attention to the data tomorrow. If it is optimistic, we could see some short-term relief. If it is worse than anticipated, watch CLOSELY! The projected CPI tomorrow is 8.4% . That's your best case going into tomorrow (April 12th) . Use it as a measure.
TVC:US10Y
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
4
US 10Y Yield Nearing 3%I believe that watching the US10Y is a great way to gauge what's happening in the equity markets. As we've been witnessing, stock valuations are being compressed and investors are feeling the pain. I've been watching this chart for a while, and you can see that the 10-year Treasury yield is nearly at 3% and is at 4-year highs. This is something to definitely keep an eye on as we continue to see a hawkish fed. We could see a change in dynamic within the secular trend of the market if this scenario continues in this trajectory.
TVC:US10Y
by ZenitCrypto
Why volatility is the king among all financial markets?With the usage of ATR, applied on the close of the daily candle, I have calculated the volatility channels for the daily TOP and BOTTOM. Based on this logic, we can estimate, with a huge confidence factor, where the prices are going to be compressed for the trading day. Having said that, lets take a look at the data gathered among the most important financial markets: SPX TOP CROSSES : 2116 BOT CROSSES : 1954 Total Daily Candles : 18908 Occurance ratio = 0.215 NDX TOP CROSSES : 1212 BOT CROSSES : 1183 Total Daily Candles : 9386 Occurance ratio = 0.255 DIA TOP CROSSES : 759 BOT CROSSES : 769 Total Daily Candles : 6109 Occurance ratio = 0.25 DXY TOP CROSSES : 1597 BOT CROSSES : 1598 Total Daily Candles : 13156 Occurance ratio = 0.243 DAX TOP CROSSES : 1878 BOT CROSSES : 1848 Total Daily Candles : 13155 Occurance ratio = 0.283 BTC USD TOP CROSSES : 416 BOT CROSSES : 417 Total Daily Candles : 4290 Occurance ratio = 0.194 ETH USD TOP CROSSES : 247 BOT CROSSES : 268 Total Daily Candles : 2452 Occurance ratio = 0.21 EUR USD TOP CROSSES : 820 BOT CROSSES : 805 Total Daily Candles : 7489 Occurance ratio = 0.217 GOLD TOP CROSSES : 1722 BOT CROSSES : 1569 Total Daily Candles : 13747 Occurance ratio = 0.239 USOIL TOP CROSSES : 1077 BOT CROSSES : 1089 Total Daily Candles : 10231 Occurance ratio = 0.212 US 10Y TOP CROSSES : 1302 BOT CROSSES : 1365 Total Daily Candles : 9075 Occurance ratio = 0.294 Based on this, we can assume with a very high confidence ( 70-80%) that the market is going to stay, within the range created from the BOT and TOP ATR points.
SP:SPX
by exlux
US 10 year yield, US 10Y The most important chart of all the markets is this little kid here. This chart shows us the cost of US government borrowing which also means the strength of the US dollar as cash in the investors portfolio, As we can see in this monthly graph that the government's 10-year borrowing yield is 3% (high going back to 2018 before COVID) What is the meaning of this? It means that the cash held by households, investors and institutions has reached its peak, as no one is buying and not investing and inflation has remained high and the Federal Reserve will target higher rates on the federal funds, All this leads to increased risk appetite as bond yields may regress south + inflation starts to fall = real yield will approach 0% after being in negative territory. The bear market will be over and risky assets like cryptocurrencies may welcome decent green days if not months. *Note, if the 10-year US yield continues to rise to 5% and 6%, then we will see the euro, stocks, Japanese yen, as well as cryptocurrencies in the best place to buy them all
TVC:US10Y
by ghattas360
US10Y-US02Y Time To Pay AttentionEveryone is talking about yields inverting and the recession that follows it. Here I am going to do a quick rundown on how to actually use this information to your advantage. It is not the yields INVERTING that is cause for concern. This is only the first step of a potentially long process. It is when yields start STEEPENING that there is real cause for concern. There is no question that yields inverting is a recession signal, it has historically proven itself to be since the 1970s. But if you think the market is ready for a recession right at this moment of inversion, you are misinformed. Pay close attention to when the yield first inverts, to where/when the market actually enters a recession. It is not until after yields STEEPEN is when there is real downside. Now, this brings us to the chart, where we are potentially seeing the first signs of steepening. Not only from the yields themselves but from the Bullish Divergence on the RSI. As yields have inverted (gone down), the RSI has trended up, showing a clear divergence. Also, notice how far yields have deviated from the 200MA. If you compare it to 2000, it is potentially showing a very similar picture Even in august of 2019 we see the same divergence which signaled yields to begin rising. Which told us it was really time to pay attention in the coming months. These are just a few insights to hopefully help you understand what this all means in the bigger picture. Right now more than ever is the time to pay attention and to stay vigilant. Hope this helps! Here is my initial analysis on yields tightening, as well as the Yield Inversion in relation to the SPX:
TVC:US10Y
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
10 YEAR YIELD GOING HIGHER MOST LIKELYIn the current high inflation environment we are in and with the Rus-Ukr war pushing energy and other commodity prices higher and higher, we can all agree yields on bonds have every right to move way higher then we have been seeing the past few years. The peak of the 'Tamper-Tantrums' back in November 2018 (Seen with black arrow) we can see the 10 year yield was higher than current levels. This was also when the fed wasn't that eager to release a 9 trillion dollar balance sheet back to market and when inflation levels were no where near what we are seeing (and feeling...) today. I do think we could be seeing the 10Y yield trying those levels (hit a little over 3% during those times) in the upcoming weeks. I do think the market will be ahead of the Fed, and push it to move higher faster. We may even break the 3% level.. especially if there is a hyper-inflation panic. Faster Bond movements could drag the market down (especially high flyers, tech stocks, etc) as e have seen in the recent past. We had a 2y/10y inversion last week which could be a leading recession indicator. In any case, be sure it's the Bond markets that will be setting the tone. Trade with caution :)
TVC:US10YLong
by LEO_IAMNOTUNCERTAIN_55555
NZDJPY - Is the WAR SENTIMENT OVER? Will BE MARKET RISK OFF? - BUILDING CONSENTS, ANZ business confidence, DATA released for the New Zealand dollar this week. BUILDING CONSENTS A very good DATA came. But BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA came with a very bad DATA. According to the MARKET SENTIMENT, a DEMAND may come to NZDs this week. Also, the Japanese yen is following the market sentiment as there is no special data release for JPY. - NZD FEATURE is currently down a bit. The main reason for this is that the MARKET RISK is starting to OFF and the STOCKS are starting to DOWN. The NZD FEATURE stands at 0.6945 LEVEL. The JPY FEATURE was heavily DOWN before. But it has now been avoided. Some UP TREND has started moving. According to MARKET SENTIMENT and JPY ECONOMIC PROJECTION. Anyway, if there is a CORRECTION that can be JPY UP in the future. Stay tuned for the VIX INDEX. Right now the VIX is getting a bit UP. NZDJPY Price is currently based on DYNAMIC LEVELS. So we must be careful. - Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK OFF. Also STOKES are getting a bit RED. VIX UP is becoming. Also COMMODITIES are now slowly DOWN. - NZDJPY Price may be slightly UP according to MARKET STRUCTURE. A RETRACEMENT has arrived that can TUCH the NZDJPY price TREND LINE again. Then the NZDJPY price can be DROP. Because VIX INDEX is currently UP. Also EQUITY MARKETS are currently DOWN. FOLLOW STRUCTURES AND MARKET SENTIMENT.
by benny_marshall
XAUUSD - HOW DOES GOLD REACT USD HIGH IMPACT NEWS?- There are two special indicators that affect GOLD today. Among them are ADP NON FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, FINAL GDP special. - Meanwhile, a FOMC MEMBER is scheduled to speak today at the New York SESSION. - US10Y currently stands at 2.30% LEVEL. US10Y WEAK a bit after JOLTS DATA yesterday. But that data came in at a very good level. But USD10Y LONG TERM is going to be UP if this MARKET CONDITION is SUPPORT to USD. Also DXY has been up to 98.17 LEVEL. The GOLD PRICE is slightly lower than the DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS at this time. Most likely the GOLD PRICE will be UP in the future. - SHORT TERM is for UP SIDE. But as the war recedes and the US Federal Reserve begins to raise rates, demand for the USD is likely to increase in the future. Therefore, GOLD may be DOWN LONG TERM in the near future. - Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK OFF. Also STOKES are turning slightly red. VIX is getting a bit DOWN. Also COMMODITIES show a slightly UP SIDE BIAS. Currently there is a NEUTRAL BIAS on the market side. - GOLD PRICE can RETRACE from DYNAMIC LEVELS. It's very important to us. Maybe after reaching the dynamic level the price can be hugely VOLATILE with the economic data coming up today. - The chance of creating a TRIPLE BOTTOM opportunity again before the GOLD PRICE is UP is very high. So GOLD can go back to 1895 LEVEL. After that you can UP to at least 1966 LEVEL. However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by benny_marshall