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US10Y

Fed Fund Rate Vs US 10Y Vs GoldHere is an interesting comparison of the 3 charts. If the history of these charts has taught us anything, there is going to be a rise in rates on a real rate basis more so than actual rates. What is more interesting is how this real rate rise will influence gold prices. Now gold isn't bitcoin, they are the exact opposite things. One is front-loaded with energy and the other requires perpetual energy in addition to one having mass vs one having no mass. The risk-off appetite will be a big player here. I can see rebalancing to add gold to your account of 5-10% and reducing bonds to offset this is smarter now. Adding the 1-2% bitcoin position will make sense as the risk-off bottoming occurs. Gold miners will be smart soon, but not yet. Pick your miners now, Barrick, Newmont, Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious, FrancoNevada, Sandstorm, etc, and hit the bid when they tank along with equities. (This is a time to add additional bitcoin as well)
FRED:FEDFUNDSLong
by rwoods187
doesnt look like risk off/conservative sentiment imho (us10y)bonds have been playing along with the aggressive selling in equities so far, but that looks as if it may be about to change for the near term. if risk off/conservative sentiment were really back in force for broader markets we would see government bond yield continuing to increase as the market drops. what the ten year has been telling me for the past week is that inflows are about to return to stocks for at least a short while. will we v shaped bounce back to all time highs? its almost certain we wont but, much to the chagrin of short sellers and cash hoarders, some sort of long play may be in the cards in the following week, and i imagine bonds could be up next in line at the barber.
TVC:US10YShort
by cerealtrades
Gamestop - MOASSIdea for GME: - The MOASS is here. - There is a global shortage of both US dollars and high quality collateral for debt (10-year US Treasury bonds). Why would the dollar be rising despite the high CPI prints? It's simple. To borrow, one must have collateral. - CS's Zoltan Pozsar explained in Nov. 19th Global Money Dispatch that currently, this demand is caused by Europe. "the ECB bough too much , reducing net supply via QE, and it topped it up with TLTROs... This week, the collateral shortage in Europe spilled over into the FX swap market: on Tuesday it became cheaper for a euro deposit holder to pay a premium and swap euros for dollars and buy Treasury bills with those dollars than to buy German bills." - While I won't go into it, it is speculated that Citadel has a great short exposure to 10-year US Treasury bonds, through their repo market arm, Palafox. May or may not be true, but it is evident that someone (probably every hedge fund) is short USTs and they are also short GME. GME by extension is a bond market volatility proxy. As long as the correlations hold, it can be traded. - What is also true is that Large and Small speculators are record short 10 Year T Note futures, while commercials are record long. Bond market volatility is reached a level where VIX was trading at 50+ previously and is higher now than what it spiked to during GME's first squeeze to 500. Somebody is about to get to get blown up. Bond Market Options Volatility (MOVE) leads GME by 15 days. Timing of MOASS, Dec.3: GME losing correlation with IWM and gaining correlation with VIX and USTs (new regime): You might get one more smash down (I expect a smash in bonds in a risk parity event before a squeeze), but I am confident this is about to happen. I'm not even going to give a price target, but it's over 4 digits for certain. When I did analysis for my AMC trade, I correctly read the psychology of the large market participants, after reading into it more and connecting the dots, turns out they were BlackRock and Citadel: If you are short GME, do you even know who is on the other side of your trade? Retail "apes"? No no no! BlackRock, who manages the US assets of foreign sovereigns, and ICBC China, with a 100% correlation to GME. China is about to enter an easing phase: GLHF - DPT Causation always produces a correlation. Liquidity takes time to flow through the economic machine.
NYSE:GMELong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
10
One of the Most Important Charts You Will Ever SeeThe bond market often has an inverse relationship with the stock market since it is considered a 'risk off' asset. Bonds generally yield more interest for longer maturities. For example, a bond investor in a healthy economy would expect a greater yield for a 10 year treasury compared to a shorter duration. However, the yield curve can 'invert' (shorter term bond actually pays greater interest) when bond traders believe a recession is imminent. Since the Fed's reaction to a recession is to drop short-term rates to 0% and recessions cause 'risk on' assets like stocks to drop, the smart money will rotate from higher risk stocks (like tech, since it's future cash flows are highly sensitive to the cost of capital) and hide out in bonds to weather the storm and minimize downside risk. Yield inversion info: www.investopedia.com This chart shows the interest spread between 10 and 2 year treasuries in blue. Shaded vertical boxes show where the yield curve inverted in the past. The S&P is in red (at least I think it's red. I am color blind). Note how the shaded boxes start just prior to the dot.com peak, the GFC peak, and even the Covid recession. Currently the interest spread is heading back towards zero as the Fed is set to hike short-term rates to combat inflation, likely beginning in March. At it's current drop rate, the spread will invert in ~Q4 of this year, which means a recession is on the table for the first half of 2023. Keep checking back for updates as I will be watching this one VERY closely.
TVC:US10YShort
by HypnoticStrix
2
US10Y approaching a structured topThe US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has been trading within a Channel Up since the early August low. The price is currently way above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and after a strong rally it is now within a structured Channel Up. The pattern resembles the October structured Channel Up, which led to a top and pull-back back below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Assuming this stands again, we should be expecting a top by the end of next week. In any case, if the 1.695 Support breaks earlier, the target would be the 1D MA200. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
2
IMPACT OF US 10 Y YIELDS ON MAJOR US INDEXESWe always here on the financial media of the inverse correlation between US 10 Year yields and the major stock indexes. Understanding this correlation may give you insight as to how to deal with a rising rate environment. In Tradeview, you can easily compare each index with the 10 Year Yield (US10Y) to view how they correlate. For simpicity I have done this only with NDQ which is the index that has the strongest degree of inverse correlation. It would be a good excercise to do this with SPX, DJI, IWM and FDM (Microcap). The results may suprise you in that there is no where near as much correlation in those other indexes and FDM seems to have the least correlation. There are many inputs to price action. Interest rates are just one. So for maximum impact, I limited the period of time I looked back to mid-May 2021 when we were apparently saw light at the end of the COVID tunnel (for the first time). This is also a bit after many Americans received their third economic impact payments which is about the time interest rates started moving. This chart shows: 1. It takes a large changes in interest rates to significantly impact the NDQ index 2. There appears to be a delay of 3-4 weeks on these changes on the direction of the NDQ index. Perhaps you can use these pivots to predict future price action on the index? 3. The latest steep rise in rates has only recently impacted NDQ which is in the final stages of forming a head and shoulders top. If we continue to see bearish action this week, the neckline may be broken and even retested within the next 10 days. Last year IWM dramatically underperformed the other US indexes which is unusual in a good year. Normally small caps lead such advances. The big suprise is that the micro-cap indes, FDM outperformed all other US indexes and seems to be pretty unaffected by these interest rate changes. Even after a massive rally in 2021, most of FDM's top holdings have a very low but positive PE and are still trading at or below fair value. At the time of publication of this idea, all major US indexes were down 1.7% (SPX) - 2.5% (Russell 2000). FDM is down 1.62%.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by LLOYDMOSS
Real interests at historical low - S&P500/M2SL at big resistanceHi folks! I just tried to take a broader perspective on things again, and wanted to take a look at the pricing of the S&P500 relative to the M2 Money Supply, as well as the effect of real interest rates on markets. Note that the orange line here is the negative of the real interest rates - that is, . My takes are these: (1) The S&P500 relative to the M2 (broad -i.e. including credit) money supply is at a critical level given historical data - only once have this level of resistance broken (during the dotcom bubble). (2) The real interest rate have NEVER been this negative - with current rates even beating those of the 70´s and 80´s. (3) (Not shown in chart) The treasury have been falling constantly since the 80´s, and have nowhere to go to the downside ATM. (4) The critical support of the S&P500/M2SL lies approximately at the break-even for real interest rates if we compare their development from the 60. I strongly believe that the real interest will move towards zero eventually - either the Fed and the governments manage to curb inflation rather quickly through credit regulations, taxes and interest rate hikes, or the markets will just ignore it in the end and dump their bonds (no one will hold bonds at a certain loss of 5.6% or more in annual terms - that is madness!). When this occurs, the stock market will take a huge dump - even compared to the M2 money supply (which will most likely decrease in the time to come!). DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well!
SP:SPX
by TheDots
Big weekly bearish div => Big drop (historically)Hi folks! Enough said already - just stay out: - S&P500 has just once been more expensive in terms of most metrics (Schiller PE, P/S, Relative to Money supply etc.) - Real interests (inflation - treasury yields) have NEVER been as negative as they are now - contributing to huge inequality in society => Fed will have to act, and most likely a lot faster than the market suspects - Remember that real interest rates are actually lower now than before Volcker bumped interests to 10%! The only potential upside to this market lies in even more speculation, and that is not a place you want to be imo. As I am a trader and do not have the patience to stay away, I just trade the VIX these days, but I do not recommend this (unless you know how it is calculated and you have a reasonable risk management strategy). DYOR. NFA. I Wish you all well :)
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheDots
8
DXY SHORT ANALYSIS TO $82.50 (DAILY TF)This here is my short analysis for the Dollar Index all the way back down to $82.50. This here is the overall bigger direction on the Daily timeframe. My Monthly TF analysis (Posted on my TradingView profile) has led me to believe the Dollar Index will take another dive down, in order to complete the corrective structure in accordance to the Elliot Wave Theory. So far we've seen a completion of the impulse move (Wave 1, 2 & 3) followed by a bearish wave down in 2017 which broke the bullish structure. This move down would be considered Wave A of the correction, WAVE B is also now complete the upside, so now we are expecting one final wave (Wave C) to complete the overall Elliot Wave Theory move. This predicted move is likely to play out over the next few years. All my socials are listed on my TradingView profile. I will be catching this move on behalf of myself & my Account Management investors.
TVC:DXYShort
by BA_Investments
DXY SHORT ANALYSIS TO $82.50 (MONTHLY TF)This here is my short analysis for the Dollar Index all the way back down to $82.50. This here is the overall bigger direction on the Monthly timeframe. My analysis has led me to believe the Dollar Index will take another dive down, in order to complete the corrective structure in accordance to the Elliot Wave Theory. So far we've seen a completion of the impulse move (Wave 1, 2 & 3) followed by a bearish wave down in 2017 which broke the bullish structure. This move down would be considered Wave A of the correction, WAVE B is also now complete the upside, so now we are expecting one final wave (Wave C) to complete the overall Elliot Wave Theory move. This predicted move is likely to play out over the next few years. I will also post the smaller Timeframe analysis on my page so let me know what you think of them! All my socials are listed on my TradingView profile. I will be catching this move on behalf of myself & my Account Management investors.
TVC:DXYShort
by BA_Investments
TNX - Deep CrabThese harmonic patterns have been a real hit or miss for me. However I couldn't help, but notice that the fibs alligned so nicely. The "potential reversal zone" is the 1.618 XA project @ 2.519. The BC projections of 2.24 and 2.618 (both in grey) were used to define the range of that zone. The AB=CD projection was also include of the 1.272 and 1.618. 1.272 is an alternate target 1.618 because I like the symmetry with the 2.618 BC projection at 2.254. Despite labeled with a "potential reversal zone", keep in mind the momentum on this sucker. The 30,40, and 50 week MA look like they are ready to flip bullish in the coming weeks if this thing gains some ground. Not financial advice by any means. I just thought it'd be fun to share. Best of luck! harmonictrader.com
TVC:TNX
by BigDGoesHard