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US10Y

Bitcoin and Simple EconomicsThere are plenty of Bitcoin charts which were scaled, dashed with lines in order to justify desired result, a dream of $100K price level. Well, bad news. It won't. Before starting our review, if you are able to read simple graphics, please meet VIX: Volatility Index. Here you can see the opposite dance circles of VIX and BTC. As volatility decreases at stock exchanges, seas getting calmer, chances of a high wave (earning) is less, Bitcoin is a great instrument to jump in. 2022 is the "inflation" year. FED is on his toes. The 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 1.75% on Thursday, as the rate spike in the new year resumed with investors assessing the FED’s faster-than-expected policy tightening. Increasing yields means less demand. Economically translated, investors are not searching for a safe zone or under panic of anything, including Omicron. So what is the good bet now? Stocks! Until Dec 2021, a positive relation is visible between US10 yields and bitcoin. At the very end of year we saw a switch (Highlighted area with rectangle) I expect BTC prices to cross down $30.000 level and VIX tor each 22.00 within 45 days. At that point, if FED makes first move before March, now it was time to jump in to the BTC since both EU and ASIA stocks will sell off as FED calls back green bucks to the motherland and offer safer solutions. DXY must be followed closely as it shows slower but steady pace towards 100 ground zero limit.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by MrCihan
BITCOIN Will it follow the US10Y rise?Following the big reception and positive comments on my most recent Bitcoin correlation analysis (with the U.S. Dollar Index and the S&P500), as shown below, I've decided to make another one, this time with the United States 10 Year Government Bonds Yield (U.S.10Y). Keep up showing me your interest on such ideas with your likes and comments, and I will make sure that more will follow. So on this 1D chart, Bitcoin is displayed in orange and the US10Y in blue. As shown, the have a positive correlation ever since the March 2020 COVID led global asset melt-down. What is very interested to me in particular is the fact that on some occasions, BTC lagged behind as when the US10Y started rising, it didn't follow immediately with a rise of its own, but did so a few days later. This indicates that the US10Y may be at times a leading indicator to BTCUSD. At the moment, the US10Y has been on a strong rebound every since the December 30 low. Could this mean that Bitcoin is lagging behind and will soon follow with a rebound of its own? This is quite similar to say the least with the previous BTC market low on September 21 2021. As you see the US10Y took off while BTC was forming a Support base and started rallying after September 29. Do you think we are in a similar situation? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
8
US 10 YEARS - W1 - DARK CLOUD COVER !We are going to look at the weekly and daily time frames. WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a "Dark Cloud Cover" pattern (bearish !) with its weekly closing level below the Tenkan-Sen and the cluster (Kijun-Sen & MBB) and also already within the weekly clouds support area. RSI below 50, @ 47'98 This Dark Cloud Cover pattern neutralized the previous white candle (harami), I mentioned as a first warning signal in my previous analysis (see related ideas below) and therefore the door is reopen to the downside towards former low of 1.34% first and then probably lower. DAILY (D1) Currently in an ongoing downtrend channel since the failure to upside breakout the clouds on a daily closing basis (Nov 29th). Below the clouds, the Kijun-Sen, the MBB and the Tenkan-Sen. RSI below 50 @ 42.44 The daily picture does not look very encouraging for the upcoming trading sessions and it is likely to see further downside towards 1.34% first and then towards the bottom line of the ongoing downtrend channel. 38.2% Fib ret @ 1.22%, 50% @ 1.05% and 61.8% @ 0.88% In order to neutralise this ongoing (yield) downside pressure the US 10 Years should recover at least above 1.50 % - 1.55 % Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US10YShort
by Ironman8848
USDCAD Tactical SHORTEntering into a tactical short position on USDCAD. This is a pure position play, medium to long term I am bullish the USD, however I believe CAD is in oversold territory. USD is on a rip right now due to Powell pivot which the USD should be supported by US yield vs bond differentials. CAD positioning is in oversold territory ever since the last Bank of Canada rate meeting. There is an event risk in the upcoming BoC meeting but I would rather enter now and re-enter if I do get stopped out. Technical perspective - two cup and handle patterns finished, one on the left between April - July and another between Aug - Dec (orange fractal) and in between both was a head and shoulder pattern (in purple). Speculating that a another potential head and shoulder pattern will form again where I am entering on the left shoulder drop + a bearish Engulfing candle + a close below the 5 EMA. US10/CA10Y bond differentials are supporting a lower USDCAD paired with an oversold Oil primed to return to the 80s level. OIL vs USDCAD US10Y vs CA10Y Backwardation Oil contracts support CAD strength
Short
by StephenCAPM
XAUUSD (Gold) Daily Analysis : Bull or Bear ?Examining the gold's chart ( XAUUSD ) in daily timeframes, we see that the price is in a trading range after the break of the uptrend and is fluctuating in the same range. We see that the price has rebounded (pullback) to the broken level. We have to see if the price will succeed in breaking its next dynamic support with the start of the new trading week or not . Exiting the price below or above this range could determine the possible future trend of the Gold ( XAUUSD ) . The bearish targets will be $1760 and $1726 and $ 1707 respectively . Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 12.DEC.2021 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
US 10 YEARS - W1 - WATCH THE CLOUDS !Last week price action triggered a long black candle which broke on a weekly closis basis, both the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen or Base line. Such kind of price action should be seen as a negative (yield ) signal, calling for lower levels. In addition, the former uptrend support line which stated at the beginning of August @ 1.1270 has also been broken which also should be seen as an additionnal warning signal calling for further downside move with the focus on the bottom of the weekly clouds, currently around 1.15% which also roughly coincides with the cluster of former bottom and the primary uptrend support line. Therefore, this 1.15%-1.10% next significant support area, on a weekly closing basis, should be seen as THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL !!! MONTHLY PICTURE : Looking briefly at this long term time frame, we can see that the cluster (Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen is also currently @ 1.1500 which corroborate my weekly view above mentioned. A failure to hold above this point, would open the door for lower level towards 1.0570 (50% Fib ret) ahead of 0.8870 (61.8% Fib ret) CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor closely price action on a daily and intraday basis to detect early reversal signal (s) which for the time being should be seen as a corrective move in a broad ongoing (yield) bearish trend. Ironman8848
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
XAUUSD 12H : 03.DEC.2021 : Bull or Bear ? (NFP)NFP Trading ?? Bull or Bear ? What do you Think ? The price is currently held by the support level of $ 1770, but has lost its dynamic support and has completed its pullback to that level. If the level of 1770 breaks, our Sell position trigger will be activated. The targets will be $ 1760, $ 1747 and $ 1727, respectively. Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 03.DEC.2021 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
3
US 10's mins 2's for Dec 2nd, 2021The yield differential between two-year and ten-year US Treasury notes, known as the 2s10s spread, has reached its highest level since November 2015. The 2s10s spread, which describes the slope of the yield curve, receives a lot of attention from market analysts and has arguably been a strong indication of economic mood and expectations. Historically, a steep yield curve indicates that investors are pricing in robust economic growth. When the 10-year yield is higher, investors do not purchase Treasuries, signaling that inflation expectations are high. It would also imply that investors anticipate the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States setting a higher benchmark interest rate than the existing one. In contrast, a flat yield curve indicates that long-term inflation expectations are modest. As a result, slowing economic activity and outperformance of fixed income assets are predictable outcomes. A yield curve inverted by 2 x 10 s implies the risk of a recession. In fact, the inversion of the yield curve, which happens 6–24 months before the economy falls to the point of technical recession, has forecasted every recession since 1955. The 10-year rate has risen sharply, breaking through a barrier level that had been in place since March 2020, fueling the steepening in 2:10. The rising 10-year rate, which is frequently used as a proxy for the risk-free rate in net present value calculations, has weighed on risk assets while driving the dollar higher as investors flock to risk-free 1.6 percent US Treasury notes. The US dollar index, DXY, has already broken through many resistance levels and is approaching its 200-day moving average of $92.9. DXY may be destined for a fall since the price has surged two standard deviations over its 21-day mean. The SPX has given up all of its gains from February and is now looking for support. According to the daily chart, the current spread on the 2s10s yield curve is close to 1.37 percent (2-year yield is 0.16 percent and the 10-year is 1.53 percent ). Since October 2020 , the pair has been heading upward. Prices have found support largely between the 8-day and 21-day EMAs, with a few dips to the 34-day support level, suggesting a strong rising trend. Furthermore, prices have been testing and smashing the upper Bollinger Band resistance level on a regular basis. Technical indications suggest a continuation of the 2s10s yield curve's upward trend, with the chance of consolidation before a rise higher. We predict the USD will climb if the positive trend continues, placing pressure on risk assets like gold.
TVC:US10Y
by TayFx
Black Swan - Risk Parity EventIdea for Bonds: - US05Y and US02Y printed immense spikes in the pre-market. Glitch? Probably not. Bond market in general is having extreme events globally, US markets not immune. - Not shown on TV, but HYG also printed -7% in the AH on Friday... and traded there for several minutes. - Dollar is unstoppable with global shortage. Pension funds have elected to use leverage to meet a 5.5 trillion dollar liability gap. I'm betting they will not succeed. In the context of everything, more likely it is a dark pool trade and people are running for the exits. GLHF - DPT
TVC:US05Y
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
5
Reversal weekend incoming!Good news for all of you crypto heads! The reversal is coming sooner than later. Why? Because we see a massive spike in shorts which means a massive spike in market maker longs (opposite side of the contract), coming from an ALL TIME LOW and hitting the breakout target from the falling channel / wedge. Furthermore, we have US10Y dropping massively along with the DXY, gold isn't doing well either. So there's nowhere to hide for hedge funds / stock traders than staying in their inflation hedge position; which is the S&P500 or the Nasdaq. If that wasn't good news already, the BTC / ETH options have expired resulting in billions of profit for the market maker; for your reminder; my max pain price was 54K and guess where we ended up? Of course we could have one last wick to the downside with 52,5K and 50K acting as good support. This could be favorable for the very short term to push the bears for more shorts and thus the market maker for more longs. However, I do think the end of the dump is in sight, market is massively oversold and I expect mr. weekend market maker to have some bullish fun this weekend. The weekend market maker is usually cowboy style with big pump and dump behavior, lets go for a pump! I am DCA'ing buys on bullish alts at the moment. Deploying 50-70% of my cahs and leaving some on the side for an extra dump. The market will come back in balance, liken it always does. IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTSLong
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
1
US10Y Close to a major bearish move towards July's lowsI haven't updated my 10Y Bond Yield outlook in almost a month, ever since calling the top and the potential of a bearish reversal: The top successfully took place and the rejection gave way to the reversal on which the price has been trading until now. The similarities with the March - May formation remain and have even become stronger. As you see there is a Triangle pattern on both which in June it broke aggressively to the down side turning the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into its Resistance until late August. Right now the 1D MA50 is supporting. If the price breaks below it and gets rejected there (turning it into a Resistance) on the first test, then I expect the US10Y to targe the 1.125 Support. Until then, we are trading sideways within the Triangle. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
2