Get started

US10Y

Stocks - SPX 1M Outlook - Trouble AheadBrief for SPX: - Weakness in price due to Quad Witching ahead of FOMC. Controversy in taper announcement as ECB has done. - Technical weakness in price, as it has fallen out of a rising wedge and as of yet, failed to make a quick recovery to ATHs as usual. Price closed in a DCF, indicating weakness in the dominant cycle. - Fears of real estate market collapse in China, with global implications (there are US counterparties involved). However, it has yet proven to be anything more than an isolated event. Cyclicality: - SPX facing headwinds of seasonal decline. - Expecting DCL in early October, a bit of a rally to a DCH and choppy markets in mid-late October, then a greater selloff into the end of October in the seasonal trough, where an ICL may be made into an end of year rally. Macro Layer: - Inflation expectations continue to decline globally: fred.stlouisfed.org - Yield curve continues to flatten, despite real rates getting a slight reprieve. - Dollar and gold showing risk-off. Debt Ceiling: (Opinion) - Interestingly, October Treasury Note Futures trading at a slight discount to September, or December. This indicates that there is some risk-off on the notes regarding the debt ceiling, but nobody expects the debt ceiling to not be raised. The US government had shut down for 35 days at the end of 2018 due to debt ceiling disagreements, so I think this is a legitimate concern and could be (a largely perception-based) catalyst for a sizable pullback. - If we take a look at 2018's correction, it began with the Sept Quad witching as well. A very similar setup to now, which is of concern: - 3700 is an area of Demand which would correspond to such a pullback, while 4290-4400 is the mid-year Pivot Range which should be watched closely. Treasury Note Futures: Key Points: - Seasonality. - Debt ceiling decision approaching, media is still buzzing about Evergrande but the narrative to form around our trade should be Evergrande > FOMC > Debt ceiling > Then perhaps the US-China Trade Deal for the EOM October ICL. Strategies: - Unilateral: Bearish/short until proven otherwise. - Intraday: Volatility expected, look for bullish reversal signs. GLHF - DPT
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
US10Y hit the 0.618 Fib. Pull-back to 1W MA50?The US10Y has been trading within a Channel Up until it marginally broke its Higher Highs trend-line yesterday. This happens to be exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and today we we seeing a rejection. Technically the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been supporting for months, with the most recent bounce provided on the September 15th low. We are expecting a pull-back towards the 1W MA50 again. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> Vergnes --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
DXY up a bit ~94.5 and down! Vs inv $SILVER; kiss & dump togethrInverse SIlver already at top of the rectangle and ready to scream once DXY meets her there! First they kiss, then they go down together. 2.5y down channel in ?W-reversal, but is oblique, but maybe, vs a rectangle/box consolidation Now in bearish rising expanding wedge heading for a corner junction with the channel Then... ? up or down? Up or down?? DOWN! I'm betting this will line up with the planed end of the SPX / NDX slide, and the US GUV will PUSH rates and the DXY down to support it and enable the blow-off top move
TVC:DXY
by UnknownUnicorn13172879
1
US10Y is about to break up and so is Bitcoin.Bonds and crypto movements are known to be highly correlated. In fact, some like to refer to cryptos as digital bonds. Here I have compared US10Y (candles) with BTCUSD (rescaled and white line) on the daily chart. Do I need to say anything extra? The US10Y is about to have a MA50 and MA100 golden cross and the MACD line has recently turned positive. The consensus among Wall Street analysts is that such an upward breakout will happen soon. Another reason I am super bullish on Bitcoin and crypto as a whole is the China news of declaring cryptocurrency trading illegal! Such a huge event only caused a minor 5% drop that is in the process of recovering.
TVC:US10YLong
by rgolshan
3
EURUSD 1D : 25.Sep.2021 (Update)As we can see, the price has already reacted well to its static support and we have to see how far it can grow, if the price can break its dynamic resistance we can expect the formation of the W pattern and for the first target up to the range of 1.19 Experience growth. This analysis will fail if the price loses static support (1.165). FX:EURUSD ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @Ar_M_An_4 📅 25.Sep.2021 ⚠️(DYOR)
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
4
..an attempt to showcase the flatteningFlattening for the close. Getting a couple of questions re; flattening after the hints in previous idea, for those following 10s30s you will notice the test of 55/54bps is underway. ↳ The latest breakdown is implying we are at the minimum here in an ABC expectation leg towards support ↳ Inflation readings will be key to drive this one, this is signalling a dangerous environment for equities and risk in general going into September. ↳ To the other side, buyers will need to break through 11th May highs to call for reassessment in the flattening view.
TVC:US30YShort
by ridethepig
3