MACRO - US10Y Forecast - 2 Lines, 2 ChoicesModel Forecasts for US10Y:
2 Lines of Least Resistance forecasted.
GLHF
- DPT
US10Y
BLOXTOPS*ALERT \\ US10Y // US10Y UPDATETVC:US10Y
Out of the long trade for now, looking for growth stock entry.
Another 6%+ jump of US10Y leading to NQ's retreat from key zone!Hi everyone. It's another 6%+ jump of US 10Y yield which resulted in the drop of NQ and gold from early EU session! I'm worried about Hang Seng index and CSI300 tomorrow.
As I mentioned in the related ideas below, the uptrend continuation of US 10Y rocked the markets. Last week, it was in the 1.6% territory and now 1.7%. The speed is a concern. In my view, back to the normal level of 1.9% to 2% is a high probability event. Hedge funds and speculative institutions wouldn't let the chance pass. There are even Inverse Bond ETFs for short sellers to make some money.
So, what's next? Technically, the failure of challenging the key level disappointed me. On the daily chart, the below zone marked in yellow around 12700 would serve as a solid demand zone.
I'm tired of watching how assets react to US 10Y yield. I'm counting the days of re-focus on fundamentals, e.g. corporate earnings.
By the way, did you notice that gold is more sensitive to the yield? Check out my related ideas below!
Give me a like and follow if you like my idea.
US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YELD GROWINGBond markets have experienced a strong movement this week with the U.S. Federal Reserve saying it expects higher economic growth and inflation in the United States this year, although it repeated its pledge to keep its target interest rate near zero. Yields on U.S. 10-year have been rising for the past seven weeks on growth expectations, spiked to their highest since January 2020 at 1.754% on Thursday. They eased to 1.6838% on Friday.
The SEB analysts said they expected the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to hit 2% this year
US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YIELD vs S&P 500The upper chart shows US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YIELD since 1980(monthly chart), and the lower chart shows its performance in comparison with S&P 500 in the last trading year.
As it is obvious US10Y experiencing a V-shape pattern and has climbed 2 channels (almost375%) in the past 12 months. If it continues the same pattern it would not be surprising to see +3% in the next 12 months!
From this point of view, we may experience a deeper correction in the months ahead.
US10Y .... some crayonnageThis is getting quite interesting... the poles are getting more and more vertical while the consolidation are getting shorter and shorter...
NZDUSD carry trade shrinksAs the US 10 year yields rise - they impact more than just the price of stocks. The Carry trade or difference between a funding currency and investment currency is also impacted.
While both New Zealand and the US ten year rates are rising, the difference between New Zealand 10 Year Yields and US 10 Year rates is diminishing. This makes the NZDUSD carry trade less appealing, for this reason the currency falls. The stronger the gap between the two yields, as we saw in earlier March, the higher the Kiwi climbs. At the moment the Kiwi is well below recent price action. Recent Q4 GDP showing that the economy showing was not as growing as expected has also added to the NZDUSD woes.
BONDS go parabolicUS10Y is going parabolic. Inflation is coming but immediate short term; strong dollar. Will yields outperform inflation? Nope, I have no evidence for that. I bet you know my inflation hedge. Thats it.
This is not investment advice, do your own research, trade or invest at your own risk.
US10Y: U.S. 10 Year Treasury (Does inflation eat money?)There are two channels in a row on the chart. One of them is the Fibonacci Channels, while the horizontal ones are the Fibonacci Retracement.
The overlapping point of these two channels is 1.93% and we predict that we will reach this point in a short time.
Of course, we don't say this just by looking at the lines on the graph. With the latest incentive package, the money that will flow to the markets is obvious, and everybody says that inflation is coming. Growth in the US will be very strong, and this will inevitably result in deferred demand turning into a buying act ...
It contains only personal views and opinions. Does not contain legal investment advice ...
GME Seeing Heavy Support, Will we see a Retest of 300+?After a near 50% crash over just 5 days, GameStop (GME) is seeing heavy support at the 21 day EMA, and we're back at a 222 handle. My play here would be to exclusively short GME when we see the upper band of the flag tested near 300+. But, to be honest, with risk so incredibly sporadic, and flows (and price) essentially blurred by MM and Fed manipulation, I'm staying away from GME until I see another massive rally. Then my plan would be to short back to sub 250's...
TSLA Catching Notable SupportAfter persistent rejections at the 21 day EMA, Tesla (TSLA) is back at the 100 day MA support around 657.31. Even if TSLA saw incredible flows, their cash burn on the aggressive (global) expansion is going to be hindered by tighter monetary conditions going forward. TSLA's bonds are incredibly important to it's viability/growth strategy, so we need to see a massive win for TSLA in the near future in terms of actual revenues/flows, or we could be heading back to the 500 level very soon...
AAPL is Looking Brittle, Time to Take Profits?AAPL is most certainly in a persistent downtrend, and after catching notable support near the 200 day MA recently, we're seeing resistance now at the 21 day EMA/100 day MA. With key supports broken, the only real support left for AAPL is the 200 day MA around 115.60. It would take a heavy risk off shift for a move of that magnitude to materialize, but imo it's coming, so strap in...
BTC VS DOLLAR - The correction is not over (yet)BTC & EUR CORRECTION:
The Dollar and Bitcoin are pegged in a negative way; when USD goes up, BTC goes down and vice versa.
Currently the dollar is having a small breakout to the upside; and thus the EUR and BTC are correcting.
At this very moment many people believe the BTC correction is over, I do not think so.
Another bad factor for crypto is a new pump for Yields (check my US10Y chart in the link below).
TA:
Check chart, corrections getting smaller and smaller and we almost finished our 5 major Elliot wave.
We could expect a bounce for BTC and crypto by the end of the week, check my chart for levels and validation of a possible breakout to the upside.
Target for breakout is between 64-67K, it might get very bloody after that, however if so; the bull market will not be over.
MORE INFO ON MY PROFILE:
Check my charts linked below for BTC, BTCD, US10Y and BTCD, EUR/USD.
COMMENT:
I have yet to look at SP500 and NASDAQ so if anyone knows more about the stock market, please let me know.
Also I'd be happy to hear your opinion on BTC, USD and the stock market!
IMPORTANT: this is not investment advice, trade or invest at your own risk and research.
MACROECONOMICS - SSE 100 - World Markets & Crypto Forecast Hello everyone,
This is not meant to be political, or financial advice... Just a scenario to entertain.
It is my hypothesis that China is leading the world economy, and other economies are acting as derivatives...
China is positioned for a downturn, and they are the least financially leveraged out of the major economies in their pandemic response. Others markets will follow, but with greater volatility!
Possible paths for SSE 100, DJI, US10Y, and (Crypto) Total MCap.
As always, GLHF!
- DPT
US10Y, USDJPY/EUR vs IXIC, DJI - Watch out whn liftcable stopsOver 30 years of records - US10Y treasury yield, USDJPY yen, USDEUR euro versus NASDAQ IXIC & Dow Jones DJI - Watch out when the roller coaster lift cable stops pulling that USD dollar up.
