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US10Y

QE, Buy-Backs, BTFD, and Fed Rhetoric Save MarketsHey guys, I hope everyone had a nice relaxing weekend. After a freakish drift higher on the US majors yesterday toward the ATH's, and off the back of a week straight of buy-backs, QE, and dip buying, the SPY is back at the lower band of the ascending green channel (resistance) around 420. Of course, we can't not mention the FED members parading around every day, spreading more transitory-inflation rhetoric to boost sentiment and cool yields. On SPY, we recently saw 2 tests of the 50DMA, first on May 12th, and then again on May 19th. But, we saw strong support, just as we have in the recent past. I expect a rejection at this level, similar to the rejection we saw on May 14th at outside channel resistance. We have initial downside to the 21EMA at 414.25, and then, of course, a retest of the 50DMA is likely this week around 408.50. On the Nasdaq (QQQ), we're sitting at 334 pre market as of 9AM, and likely to retest the high from Feb 16th around 338 before getting a rejection. The momentum is to the upside as the 21EMA, 50DMA, and 100DMA has been recaptured. The Russell (IWM) is sitting just at the 21EMA around 221, with the 50DMA just above us at 222.34, and the 100DMA just below around 219, and the Dow (DIA) is sitting at the top of it's recent range, and within a couple percentage points of the ATH. Gold has been levitating just above the 200DMA after the recent dollar puke, and spike in bonds, while Bitcoin (BTCUSD) recovered slightly to a 37k handle after the insane 54% crash that we all knew was coming. WTI (USOIL) is sitting around 66 and showing resilience as FED burns the dollar back to an 89 handle. The Vix is sitting at 18.2 after retesting the descending trendline we broke through on May 11th. We hit a low of 16.9 this morning around 7AM, but are poised to recapture the white ascending trendline around 18.6, with 18.8 resistance back in play. Finally, the US10Y yield is being sold off as the FED down plays inflation as transitory, and although the cup and handle formation is still potentially going to materialize, based on previous tests of long term resistance, it may be several weeks before we see a breakout. I just want to say thanks again for everyone's patience last week as I took some time off, it was a rough week. My cat Franco was in and out of the vet, and had his final surgery which went well, thankfully. Then my dog Pompey died. When it rains it pours I guess, but he was 18 years old, and had a great life, so I'm finally smiling now when I think of him instead of crying. Time to get back on track. :) Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
9
Jobless Claims Fall, PPI Crushes ExpectationsUS Futures traded mostly sideways in the overnight session, with the S&P briefly testing a low of 4,029.38, before recapturing the 50DMA. We're currently sitting just above the 50DMa around 4,072.38 as of 9AM. We saw jobless claims come in at 473k vs the 510k expected, while continuing claims came in at 3.655MM. Don't be fooled by these numbers though, we're still seeing over 16MM Americans on some form of income benefits, and a significant portion of labour costs are being subsidized by the government. How long this can last with inflation soaring, is anyone's guess. PPI came in hot at 0.6% in April vs the 0.3% expected, while Core PPI rose 0.7% vs the 0.4% expected. YoY, PPI rose a whopping 6.2%, much higher than the 5.8% expected, and the highest YoY rise ever. The US10Y yield cooled slightly after yesterday's high of 1.705%, and is sitting just below cup and handle resistance at 1.686%. We're up around 6% on the week, and poised for a massive breakout if we push beyond 1.77%, the previous high from March. The Vix blew up yesterday, rallying a whopping 30% before cooling to a 25 handle as of 9AM. We appear to be in the midst of a vicious reversal, as is usually the case when Vix spikes. However, the majors are still incredibly overvalued, historically so, and would need to see a 30% correction to match the levels seen in the dot com bubble. Needless to say, I'm holding my Vix longs, for big short 2.0. The Dollar (DXY) had a fantastic day yesterday as risk was fled for safe havens; even the flaming dollar. But saw some weakness after testing a high of 90.907 in the overnight session. We're likely going to see a test of the lower band of the wedge, around 91, before we see a solid rejection back to 90. Having said that, the dollar is likely going to see a bid at some point, when the Fed mentions the word no one on Main Street wants to hear, which is taper. Inflation will force the Fed's hand, and they won't have a choice but to reduce bond purchases, and raise rates, leading to a cascade of selling in debt support assets such as real estate, and growth. Finally, the Put/Call rose almost 20% yesterday, rising to the highest level since October, 2020 at 0.83. We're seeing a blatant shift in positioning in the equity options market, so hold on to your hats as the PPI data confirms that inflation is rampant, and potentially at the stage where it can do significant damage to Main Street. * I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
12
ETH Double TopThis is the continuation of a previous idea that I posted on ETH with a textbook hanging man. However, that idea would have only netted a rough 4% as it was followed by a 3 Crows and 3 Knights pattern. So I think the hanging man has been played this time. But, there may be a double top at play. Obviously we need to wait and see if this double top develops before taking a trade, since it could fail on way down to form some kind of bullish triangle, but I am leaning towards double top. Plus, maybe it just soars through this ATH and goes to the moon! Lmk your thoughts! Not advice. Not a recommendation. Just my opinions. Thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:ETHUSDShort
by deadsquare214
8
Ten-Year US Treasury Yield in Focus as Inflation Data LoomsTreasury Yields in the Crosshairs Ahead of High-Impact Inflation Data Due Ten-year US Treasury yields have rallied 14-basis points since Friday's swing low Bonds are selling off again as investors grow weary of mounting price pressures US10Y could snap higher if monthly inflation data due for release tops estimates Taking a quick look at a daily chart of ten-year US Treasury yields ( TVC:US10Y ) highlights a change in tone of the bond market over the last three trading sessions. The ten-year Treasury yield has climbed 14-basis points since Friday's swing low printed in the aftermath of a shockingly poor reading for headline nonfarm payrolls. After having a chance to digest April's NFP report, however, markets pegged the miss to labor shortages. After all, the NFP report showed a healthy uptick in average hourly earnings, and JOLTS data released this morning showed that US job openings are at their highest on record. This has helped reignite inflation fears and the debate around Fed tapering, which in turn, is weighing negatively on the bond market. Bond prices fall as yields rise, and vice versa. That said, the sharp reversal in Treasury bond yields on Friday left behind what appears to be a bullish engulfing candlestick. Technicians may also consider how US10Y is now trading back above its 50-day simple moving average. This could open up the door to a test of technical resistance posed by the short-term descending trendline and upper Bollinger Band near 1.65%. Eclipsing this technical obstacle might bring fresh year-to-date highs into focus. Perhaps the upcoming release of monthly inflation data on Wednesday, 12 May at 12:30 GMT will provide a fundamental catalyst to spark the move. If inflation data crosses the wires below expectations, however, we could see a boost to demand for Treasuries that pushes yields back lower.
TVC:US10Y
by RichDvorakFX
GDX higher , can VOX Royalty benefitIn 2021 Vox set out ambitious corporate targets for the year with an aim to grow and acquire additional NAV-accretive royalties. By February Vox Royalty announced that it had agreed to acquire a Western Australian gold royalty portfolio from Gibb River Diamonds Ltd for A$325,000 in cash. With a total of 31 Australian royalties, Vox is now the second-largest publicly traded holder of royalty interests in Australia by royalty count, behind Franco Nevada Corporation.    Vox's gold royalty portfolio includes three advanced exploration gold royalties in Western Australia. The royalties include a 1% Net Smelter Return (NSR) royalty over the Bulgera Gold project operated by Norwest Mineral Ltd, a 1% NSR over the Comet Gold Project operated by Accelerate Resources Ltd, and a 1% NSR over the Mount Monger Gold Project operated by Accelerate and subject to a binding option agreement with Mt Monger Minerals Pty Ltd. The Bulgera Gold deposit has an estimated resource of 93,880 gold ounces at 1.0 g/t. With precious metals miners showing a positive reaction to the US10 year yields being capped under 1.7% currently, plus the weakening US dollar there is a real chance that producers ramp up production as prices of the yellow metal appreciate. $2k Gold seems to be the sweet spot for a lot of evaluations around the miners but there is sentiment building that the economy and monetary policy are going to be very supportive of traditional stores of wealth.
V
by TH_Analysis
XAUUSD - Gold - GLD analysisXAUUSD is moving higher on the back of the weakening US dollar. However, into the end of trading Friday, the US10 year yields started to rise, as traders sold Bonds and bought equities. The rising yields will keep the price of Gold capped, so during next week it is crucial that Bonds get bought, the US dollar gets continually sold, and that we get XAUUSD above 1850. Otherwise, the 3rd test of the descending trend line will be the first roadblock and Gold will come back into the $1700-$1800 trading range. There is also a double bottom now at $1680-$1690 so a good target for anyone looking to take liquidity. Targets to the upside include a measured move to $2250 US yields are key for the direction of gold as is the continuation of a weaker US dollar.
FX:XAUUSD
by TH_Analysis
DXY: Snap, Crackle PopDXY has definitely snapped to the downside right to the brink of the pattern. Pattern could fail and we'll see it crackle lower or Pop to the upside. 90.1 is the level I'm watching. IF it falls below its over and I'd expect DXY rest of the year in the 80's with SPY jumping to 454. IF DXY pops I expect a broad market correction. What happens to CAPM when there is no risk in Market premium, assets are prices on Beta, or momentum only. Issue with that is that there is no discount and growth is capped by inflation alone. However, no one can beat inflation in the end as it will always out pace asset prices in a "riskless" market. Let me hear your thoughts. Going to be an interesting summer no?
TVC:DXY
by deadsquare214
Payrolls Disaster Proves the Ponzi Isn't Working, Fed StuckWe had a very interesting day of PA on Thursday after jobless claims rose by 498k vs the 530k expected. Continuing claims sit at 3.69MM, rising by approx. 400k vs last week's print. According to ZeroHedge, we still have over 16MM Americans on some form of income benefits, so of course, take any jobless claims print with a pinch of salt. Remember, the government is essentially subsidizing labour costs for businesses, while stimulating demand, and when this eventually ends, all of those zombie companies that are contributing to this fake rebound, will perish. Looking at the day ahead, we just saw the much anticipated April Payrolls report which was whispered to be in the range of a whopping 2MM. However, the report was a complete shock to Wall Street with a measly 266k jobs being added to Nonfarm Payrolls, and 218k added to Nonfarm Private Payrolls. The Unemployment rate rose to 6.1% from 5.8%, showing a deterioration in the labour market in April. The average work week rose from to 35 hours, from 34.9. Someone call the Fed, we're gonna need more free money! US Futures rose broadly overnight after a rollercoaster ride yesterday saw every sell program be met with a relentless short squeeze. According to Goldman Sachs, Hedge Funds have been shorting the Nasdaq for the past couple weeks, and so, what we saw yesterday, is potentially profit taking flows from these funds. However, after the ugly payrolls miss moments ago, global markets are experiencing some volatility, with the Dow down 0.06% to 34,422, the S&P up 0.37% to 4,209.62, the Nasdaq up 1.4% to 13,780.38, and the Russell down 0.11% to 2,236.35. In Europe, the Dax is up by 0.58% to 15,345.50, the FTSE 100 is up 0.20% to 7,085, and the SMI is down 0.15% to 11,115. In Asia, The Nikkei 225 is down 0.06% to 29,328, the Hang Seng is up 0.66% to 28,596, the CSI 300 is down by 1.24% to 4,992.60, and the Nifty 50 is up 1% to 14,930. The rotation into growth is now back, with the Nasdaq being heavily bid, while small caps puke. Clearly the talk of tapering has simmered notably after the obvious weakness in the labour market. It's another win for the speculators, as they assume the Fed now has no choice but to continue to support their risk appetite. The Vix is sitting at 18.1, showing resilience after yesterday's short squeeze into the close. We're still channeling up, and are sitting just below daily resistance at 18.80. We'll be looking for a breakout above 21, for confirmation of a larger move ahead, and are positioned for bearish PA into the close, and next week. The US10Y yield is puking, and is back to 1.51% after losing the 50DMA earlier on in the week. We have downside to 1.35% where the 100DMA is sitting. Needless to say, the knee jerk reaction to flock into bonds is warranted after the ugly payrolls report, and interestingly the dollar is puking after the report to 90.45, which could lead us to believe that the Fed's debasement scheme has spooked dollar bulls. Should be a doozy of an open, so stay tuned. * I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
37