US10Y: Bullish- Ascending triangle US10Y: Bullish- Ascending triangle
Ascending triangle detected on US10Y
The exponential moving averages remain possible targets
Monitor Ichimoku levels
The ROC ( Rate of Change) is in a positif territory.
Bonds can rise to a double top
Stay careful
Good trades to all
US10Y
Bitcoin to $1,000,000, This is It. (Breakdown Explained)
Well here we are, no recession? no rate hikes? what's going on?. The currency collapse is imminent that's what is going on while majority wait for a recession.
No reserve currency has ever survived going past 121% Government Debt to GDP (what about USA in ww2?, this was the start of parabolic technology growth + decrease in spending + war debt repressions
(forced).
Government Debt + Interest will collapse the currency faster if the FED raises interest rates so this is not a possible outcome unless you want to roll the dice.
CPI + Inflation has barely been tamed, FED balance sheet failed to reduce + BTFP.
SPY (priced in USM2) has started a new bubble breakout
(yes meaning it has just started).
Japan raising interest rates means the carry trade is closing (people sell the US Bonds they bought with cheap JPY) adding artificial pressure on the US10Y market.
FED raising rates at 121% Government Debt to GDP will send it to 200% faster than you can imagine, a recession? forget it can't be allowed to happen.
Theory breakdown what happens next?
FED unable to raise rates will start to introduce confidence lost in the dollar that will trigger loss in confidence in US bonds that will require YCC like WW2. When the USA has done this before it equated to the FED needing to get rates back to zero.
The FED has an objective to save the US dollar above all means necessary, raising rates in a situation like this on paper makes sense but leads to to a accelerated debt cycle collapse.
Jerome Powell's only option was to raise rates fast as possible strengthening the DXY as much as they can flowing all capital globally back into the dollar for risk management.
Jerome Powell now must cut rates back to zero and initiate YCC on the US bond market, reinitiate Quantitative Easing to avoid any recession backstopping every market. Inflation must be allowed to run near 20%-100%. Large capital will see this event unfolding and run into assets like Bitcoin & Gold, we already see this and should understand why Spot ETF's and leverage ETF's were rushed to the market pre cuts.
If the US bond market fails, global capitalism as we know it today fails.
If my thesis was invalidated Jerome Powell would have started multiple more rate hike since I first mentioned this back in late 2023.
GOLD SHORT TO $1,967📉GOLD SHORT TO $1,967📉
Made slight wave adjustments (WAVE W-X-Y) & relabelled them as Gold pushed higher. Overall this selling analysis remains intact as our selling confirmation zone has not hit yet. I have moved the 'selling confirmation' price higher to $2,156. Being patient & not rushing into trades🤞🏼
US 10Y TREASURY: testing 4.2%The 10Y US Treasuries finished the first quarter testing 4.2% level. The favorite Fed's inflation gauge, PCE indicator was published on Friday, indicating that the inflation is moving within market expectations. This additionally supported market optimism that the Fed will cut interest rates in June this year, which is currently estimated with 60% chance. Speaking at the Economic Club of New York gathering, Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that there is no rush for cutting interest rates. He saw a rationale in keeping interest rates at current levels for longer to help inflation on its "sustainable trajectory toward 2%".
Based on current charts, it might be expected that the market will start the week ahead by testing the 4.2% level. At this moment there are no expectations that yields might move below this level. On the opposite side, there is a low probability that yields could move higher to the upside, aside from 4.25% level. Overall, some higher swings in yields should not be expected at this moment.
US 10Y TREASURY: digesting Fed`s narrative Since the beginning of March, US Treasuries were waiting for a Fed`s clear signal over the course of their interest rate actions, and they finally got the necessary details in a statement after the FOMC meeting. The Fed is planning to cut interest rates three times till the end of this year. A few more cuts are coming in 2026. This information brought some relaxation in 10Y Treasury yields, so they moved from 4.34% as a highest weekly level toward the supporting 4.2%.
Current question is whether yields are preparing for a move toward levels from the beginning of March, when they were standing at 4.0%? On a long run, they will certainly make this move, however, probably not during the week ahead. The reason is that markets take time to digest all the information received, and then make a decision on a clear move. In this sense, for the week ahead the most probable scenario is that 10Y Treasury yields will take some time to test the 4.2% before they decide for a move toward the lower grounds.
GOLD SHORT TO $1,960📉Gold keeps breaching new all time high's, after new all time high's. Luckily we're on the right side of history & buying. Also, as our 'selling confirmation' still hasn't hit, we haven't taken any losses from sells. I have moved our selling confirmation level up to $2,143 now🤞🏼
As Gold has breached the $2,200 zone, I have moved my 'Sell Target 1' up towards $1,960 now & 'Sell Target 2' towards $1,895.
GOLD SHORT TO $1,960📉Gold keeps breaching new all time high's, after new all time high's. Luckily we're on the right side of history & buying. Also, as our 'selling confirmation' still hasn't hit, we haven't taken any losses from sells. I have moved our selling confirmation level up to $2,143 now🤞🏼
As Gold has breached the $2,200 zone, I have moved my 'Sell Target 1' up towards $1,960 now & $1,895 as my second target.
Gold Buying Reaccumulation at $1960 - $1940📈After the heavy bull run all the way from 2016 - 2022, we saw Gold enter a reaccumulation phase from 2020 - 2023. A strong 3 years of consolidative price action. This was followed by a breakout recently.
Is it possible to see another dip down towards $1960's as a retest of this accumulation zone? I'll be keeping an eye out so I can buy the dips. BUT only if market structure offers the opportunity.
Gold Buying Reaccumulation at $1960 - $1940📈After the heavy bull run all the way from 2016 to 2022, we sae Gold enter a reaccumulating phase from 2020 - 2023. A strong 3 years of consolidative price action. This was followed by a breakout recently.
Is it possible we might see another dip down towards $1960's as a retest of this accumulation zone? I'll be keeping an eye out so I can buy the dips. BUT only if market structure offers the opportunity.
US 10Y TREASURY: rethinking timeSince the beginning of this year, until last week, the markets were certain that inflation is on the down-path and that the Fed might cut interest rates somewhere in May this year. However, the February inflation data made the markets rethink their initial assumptions. The inflation seems to be more persistent than initially estimated, in which sense, the rate cutting time by the Fed might come somewhere in the second half of this year. The market reacted on officially released data, so the 10Y benchmark yields returned a bit toward the higher grounds, reaching the level of 4.3% during Friday`s trading session.
It should be considered that the week ahead might bring back some volatility. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, as well as FOMC economic projections. The market will gain more insights into the course of the potential future monetary actions by the Fed and will position accordingly. In this sense, some increased volatility might be expected. However, the level of 4.3% seems as a peak on charts at this moment, from where some relaxation might be expected, at least toward the 4.2% level.
US10Y Expect to see a new High.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.193, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 38.653) as it crossed above the 1D MA200 again, with the 1D MA50 following right under it, with the two on an emerging 1D Golden Cross. We have anticipated that rebound from the HL of the Channel Up on our previous idea and our medium-term target (TP = 4.600%) is intact.
If the 0.786 Fibonacci level breaks, we will buy after the first 1D MA50 pullback. The 1D RSI is also posting a similar early rally sequence to April-May 2023 and December 2022-January 2023.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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US30 TO NEW ATH OF $43,050 (UPDATE)🚀Remember this US30 analysis I posted back in July calling for a new all time high?👀 This analysis worked out to perfection! Market is now up 5,990 PIPS (18% growth) from our POI😍
Whoever invested into US30 when this analysis was posted, you should all be up now & running in deep profits as we have breached new all time high's!
GOLD SHORT TO $1,895 (UPDATE)📉As the Dollar pushed up yesterday, we saw a nice sell off on Gold, with 300 PIPS downside. Still waiting for our 'selling confirmation' zone to be hit & to confirm a break of structure. Will possibly move our selling zone higher over the next few days depending on the structure that Gold creates. Till then I'm sitting on the sidelines📉
DOLLAR INDEX LONG TO $108 (UPDATE)📈With the help & manipulation from CPI data, the DXY is now pushing within our technical bias. We saw in the previous days the $103 low's get taken which would have trapped in new sellers, now CPI has come in & liquidated them.
Previous Inflation Rate: 3.9%
New Inflation Rate: 3.8%
GOLD SHORT TO $1,895📉Gold moving very choppy to the upside, despite a positive NFP figure. We're seeing a trap form which'll keep enticing new & new buyers into the market, before we see a reversal. Waiting for a break of structure once our 'selling confirmation' zone is hit, which is when we will short the market. Till then I'm sitting on the sidelines📉
US 10Y TREASURY: currently without doubtsDuring the previous week the market was pricing released job data in the US. Increasing unemployment rate boosted investors expectations that the Fed's rate cuts are round the corner. Also it has been confirmed through the Fed Chair Powell`s testimony to the Senate, with wording “at some point” during the course of this year. Although, initially, it was expected that the rate cut might occur in May, currently the odds are 80% that it might happen in June this year. Treasury yields were aligned accordingly. The 10Y US benchmark rate slipped from the level of 4.2% at the start of the week toward the 4.0% as of the weekend. Such a move was a clear sign that the market has no more doubts that the rate cuts are coming.
Inflation rate for February as well as retail sales in the US are set for a release in a week ahead. Any surprises on this side might impact some volatility on the markets, however, without a significant move toward either side. The 10Y Treasuries will continue to test the 4.0% with a low probability that this level might be breached. On the opposite side, some moves toward 4.1% are more probable.