US10y to Stay Above 2.4% With a Year-end Target of >=2.5%I see strong of support for the 10y at just above the key 2.40% level:
-Current 10y levels have finally crossed over the trend-line going back to July – strong near-term indicator is broken which suggests 10y support at/above 2.40%.
-Interestingly, the ~2.40% yield level is the .618 Fibonacci level which we have also crossed over – this is a key Fib level which also indicates support at 2.40% with the next resistance level at ~2.47% or the .764 Fib level.
-The ECB cannot be discounted either as any meaningful uptick in European rates will likely help push US rates even higher.
Target: US 10y at or above 2.5% by the end of the year.
