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Us10yr

ridethepig | 10Y Treasury Note📌 Yields are clearly hesitant to subscribe to the V shapers in Global Equities. An important observation in an extraordinarily difficult trading environment. The 0.90% - 0.50% range is clearly defined and from time to time we have had to get involved with a gentle grin and attempt to play both sides. The 0.50% lows are 🔑 for this battlefield, as long as they are holding there is nothing to see to the downside. Losing the lows creates a freedom manoeuvre towards 0.17%. Otherwise all sellers are to be viewed as sacrifices and necessary in the basing formation. Expecting an eventual solution to the topside with 1.0% and 1.45% targets into 2020/2021. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback and charts coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | US Yields Breaking Higher!So much for the 5th wave... the formulation has truncated after the payrolls report. This is an example of an erroneous freeing. In similar patterns, the rebound will translate in a 5 wave impulsive sequence which is somewhat cramped after the knee-jerk reaction from covid. The appropriate positional response to the lows here is to ride the pig , what we are talking about is taking measures outguessing the road to normalisation of rates which we have not yet recognised as such. Now we turn to the analysis of play in unemployment claims, despite how the media are selling business as usual we have a long (and likely sluggish) road to recovery, because of the poor handling of lockdowns and closures. The one who is playing the macro data always has the upper hand, but this is especially the case once we clear the 'knee-jerk reaction' from the virus. The recurring bankruptcies, layoffs, social unrest and shutdowns have been forgotten about after politicians promising diversions! Smart money will not move so easily. Retail will pay their tribute in the form of horrible losses to an unconditional truth. Vix has completed the round trip, first prize to all those riding it from 85! Of course the swing from 85 was no less imaginative than the swing from +/- 11 lows: We are entering into a new development for volatility, my models are forecasting a dramatic expansion into year-end which will make it very difficult for manual or emotional players. 2022/2023 looks like the start of the next bull run in global equities, expectations are for advanced conditions to remain with us for 12-18 months.
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
US10Y-03MY Great Financial Recession, Fractal Comparison. May of last year, I predicted 10-12 months before the inversion would match the time-frame of inversion and un-inversion seen back in 08. Obviously, the catalyst I did not predict, but the underlying fundamentals were there and 12 months later, we are yet to technically be in a recession. Keep in mind, we need 8 months of data to print for GDP until the quants and macro funds can classify us in a recession. The original prediction that came to fruition 12-months later is on a personal blog site. Pm me if you would like more details, but I won't advertise the link here, nor do I care to. For those that are curiousu what I saw, and how i was able to come to this prediction, I'm happy to explain it--Cheers, 17:19:40 (UTC) Wed May 27, 2020
TVC:US10YLong
by TayFx
6
ridethepig | US10Y Market Commentary 2020.04.10An important chart update for all early and late cycle players, the lows in US10Y Yields are not yet locked and this is holding the window open for a final leg to the downside cooking in Global Equities and risk markets. A lot of buying interest in bonds towards 0.85 / 1.00 highs which will be enough to keep the downtrend in pay. I am looking for a full ABC completion from a strictly technical sense to complete the pattern. It will make things a lot easier for later in the year / into 2021 (and beyond). On the map a very simple area to track: Steel Resistance 0.89 <=> Strong Resistance 0.77 <=> Soft Resistance 0.69 <=> Mid-Point FLIP 0.6 0 <=> Soft Support 0.48 <=> Strong Support 0.39 <=> Steel Support 0.30 Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc... jump in with your questions and views!
TVC:US10YShort
by ridethepig
2