Us10yr
US Bonds 10 Year Yield broke the boxUS Government Bonds 10 year yield already broke clusters and getting closer to the trend line, too many opportunities in the market but don't forget... buckle up!
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Bearish move in the 10yr US yieldAfter forming a somewhat imperfect rising wedge, a bearish breakout confirmed.
USD interest rate growth could be limited by previous top.At the end of last September I called for the drop in the 10-year US T-notes with quite aggressive target (see related idea).
In this and the next update I came to the thought that the drop could be over earlier as rates are reaching important resistance level.
Despite the aggressive tone on the rate rise in US, I think the upside is limited based on this chart.
Wave 5 of (C) already has reached the target zone and approaches the former top at the 3.04% where the wave 5 = 0.786 of waves 1-3.
It is quite possible that when we would reach that area above 3 pct something in the economy could cry out - stop it!
Let's see!
US10 DXY GOLDPause for a second and check this out. the most significant correlation btw the yields and ccy is changing (or already changed). higher yields lower dxy tells me that the investors not only selling US papers but they are also taking their dollars back home.
chart attached: bars US10 yields, green line DXY, blue GOLD.
markets started to treat US assets like an EM country. twin deficit, higher yields lower currency...
I think there is a good risk in being gold short, long dxy and US bonds...
apreciate any comment to help me understand the madness
good luck all!
#US10YR #BONDS #EMERGING MARKETSUS 10 YR yields just surpassed the 2.6270% level. this is a typical bullish bottom pattern and looks like a weekly closing above 2.63% will trigger more activity to the market.
I d recommend extereme caution on EM long positions...
US 10 YEAR YIELDS ****EM TRADERS!!!!US Generic 10 yr yields took a leap towards the reverse h&s neckline, 2.60% is the key level the watch.
if yields breach above 2.60 music stops for the long EM trades for the short term!
hedge longs especially fragile 5s ccy and bonds
A simple view on US 10Y bond yieldsUS 10Y bond yields are at a critical support point. If broken, downward move might accelerate.
Upper consolidation zone is almost complete, there remains only a small contraction area before break-out (either downwards or upwards).
Comparing the current US 10Y bond yield and gold_ price levels with those of 8th November 2016, gold_ has recovered to day-one-value but bond yields are still much above the (1.700-1.800_) band.
Time to buy gold for a long ride to $1309Great buying opportunity has arrived, lets buy some gold in this area for 1309 area. USDJPY has become over extended and has entered into a great short opportunity and US 10YR Yields has also become over extended. Green pips to all
US10Y Weekly buy?We find different trendlines and an important support at this point. If the stock market keeps rising we might have a lower price, also because commodities and bonds trend inversely (1) we could have a small change in the trend, because both oil and gold have fallen.
1. Murphy, J. J. (2015). Trading with Intermarket Analysis: A Visual Approach to Beating the Financial Markets Using Exchange-traded Funds (Vol. 586). John Wiley & Sons.
US10Y Fake Breakout Pt. 2 (March 3, 2017)Yellen continues to beat around the bush regarding a rate hike this month. Yields have been rallying leading up to Yellen's speech but the Fed continues to disappoint by not providing a concrete decision on whether they are raising or not. If we treat this as a fake break of the trend line but more so as a box and range then we could see 2.300 again before the actual rate decision on March 15th.
US10Y Yield Fake Breakout (Feb 27, 2017)This is an update regarding my breakout idea from the weekend. Today the yields failed to push below Friday's low and we got a close back above the trendline. Price is being supported ahead of Trump's speech tomorrow. There's a possibility bulls can push back towards 2.500 this week. I am residing with slightly bullish on the Dollar until further confirmation. This is also starting to play out as a bullish flag.
US10Y Yields Weekly GapI have been bearish on the Dollar for the past few weeks. Even with good US economic data the yields have been selling off aggressively breaking the wedge. My target for US yields is the weekly gap and I expect the dollar to fall below 100.00 in the coming weeks. I'm expecting a retest of the lower trend line on the yields and continuation of the bearish sentiment.
Treasury Yields Surge but the Dollar Stays PutOver supply from the auctions should keep treasury yields rising to test the high @ 2.65 on the 10yr. Bills and 7yr being auctioned tomorrow should continue to fuel the Dow higher. $DXY might follow yields to 102 forming a right shoulder depending on the data tomorrow and Friday.
US10 @ 1h @ still upside trend before trump start this week ?Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
Best regards :)
Aaron
US 10 YEAR SHORT - Normal correction, bearish bias intactBond yields are moving in accordance with changes in term premia.
A normal mean-reversion of term premium on the 10 year Treasury should maintain bearish bias.
After the sharp sell-off in bonds with little-to-no retracement, a correction was to be expected.
Thus, bond prices are moving as expected.
US10 @ 30 min @ 95'21'7 seems to hold, how high can this goes ?This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Next week i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :)
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
Best regards
Aaron
long US10 @ 15 min @ trading capability for this 52nd week `16This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Next week i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :)
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
Best regards
Aaron
