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$US10Y Reaches 16 Year High, Short-Term Forecast & DiscussionThe TVC:US10Y has been extremely bullish since May 2023, and has gained more strength after the Fed's hawkish announcement that led to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment. The TVC:US10Y has broke through numerous resistance levels to reach its 16-year high. From a technical analysis perspective, the TVC:US10Y has a tendency to have strong bullish rallies with breaks above the Bollinger Band (marked by yellow lines). We are observing that scenario in the current bonds market. There is a likelihood that the rally continues for a few more weeks (approximately 1-4 weeks). However, I think the TVC:US10Y and bonds market are due for a correction back down to the EMA ribbon. A strong bond market hurts equities because investors perceive TVC:US10Y as a less riskier investment alternative. This is hurting SP:SPX in the short term, but a peaking TVC:US10Y could also signal the bottom of the SP:SPX correction at current levels. For now investors are waiting for Friday's jobs data after the Tuesday JOLTS job openings data came in worse than expected.
TVC:US10YShort
by realchartchamp
1
US10Y - INMINENT SELL OFF US10Y - 10 YEAR BOND WEEKLY TENDENCY ANALYSIS THE 10 Year Bond Started Buying from Weekly Demand (green) Then reached Monthly Supply that generated a new/fresh weekly Supply to start reversing the price Destiny: Weekly demand (green) Stages/Weekly tendency - Stan Weistein - STAGE I: Price consolidate Between SMA 30 @ Weekly TF - STAGE II: Price break consolidation and make highs above SMA 30 @ Weekly TF - STAGE III: Price consolidate Between SMA 30 @ Weekly TF - STAGE IV: Price break consolidation and make lows below SMA 30 @ Weekly TF
TVC:US10YShort
by imktads
9
US 10 year yield, US 10Y The most important chart of all the markets is this little kid here. This chart shows us the cost of US government borrowing which also means the strength of the US dollar as cash in the investors portfolio, As we can see in this monthly graph that the government's 10-year borrowing yield is 3% (high going back to 2018 before COVID) What is the meaning of this? It means that the cash held by households, investors and institutions has reached its peak, as no one is buying and not investing and inflation has remained high and the Federal Reserve will target higher rates on the federal funds, All this leads to increased risk appetite as bond yields may regress south + inflation starts to fall = real yield will approach 0% after being in negative territory. The bear market will be over and risky assets like cryptocurrencies may welcome decent green days if not months. *Note, if the 10-year US yield continues to rise to 5% and 6%, then we will see the euro, stocks, Japanese yen, as well as cryptocurrencies in the best place to buy them all
TVC:US10Y
by ghattas360
ridethepig | US 10Y Yields (Weekly)Markets are focused on three topics this week: (i) The 4Q 2019 Earnings season, (ii) coronavirus spillover concerns and (iii) Sanders performance in Caucuses. In US Yields the picture is crystal clear on the Long-term chart, for those following the 1.50% support level we are tracking on the daily you will note where the strength in defence comes from in the medium term: On the technical side the same levels to track: Support : 1.50% / 1.45% / 1.32% Resistance : 1.68% / 1.75% / 1.95% In my books the impact of the virus is going to have a major impact on US GDP growth, tracking for 2% drag on Q1 growth. Chinese spending offshore is expected to drop by 0.6% (which is a conservative estimate). This is weighing on investor decision making as the impact will come through valuation changes rather than the earnings. If you are a believer in the virus having a short lived impact, then you can increase exposure on this dip in cyclicals and value companies. The industries hit hardest are airlines and travel with gaming to a lesser extent receiving a hit via Macao shutdowns. All the best guys, and as usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | US 10Y Yields At SupportA quick update that I will try to keep relatively short for those charting the US10Y we have important updates after markets struggled to shake off risks from China. The support in Yields is starting to form a bullish basing pattern, although the medium term structure is weaker the immediate horizon looks strong and stable above the 1.50 line in the sand. The bounce from 1.50% support was widely expected, here noting the key levels for our map: Support : 1.50% / 1.45% / 1.32% Resistance : 1.68% / 1.75% / 1.95% What is typical of the big leagues, and this of course is no exception in US10Y which is where the biggest sharks are found, it is and will remain advanced playing fields for advanced swing traders only. Retail making use of the weekly close looking soft and betting on the continuation will provide the fuel for a spike as they cover and become trapped in a squeeze. Remember.. even when smart money appears to have a gun pointed at the head, it always finds the time to mass his troops in defence (now you see why this weekend was vital!!!!)... If you are keen to learn, you should model yourself around these premises. All the best guys, and as usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | US 10Y Yields At 1.50 Support A deliberate soft closing down at the 1.50 lows (instead of breaking through allows for an underestimation in the bounce); here, the systematic approach of buying the dip deserves victory. We can cast some light together on playing through the flank: In the extraordinarily traditional sense an inversion which we are looking at always leads to a recession and volatile positioning. This change of cycle that I have mentioned usually crops up in Vol first: But what is typical of the big leagues, and this of course is no exception in US10Y, is and will remain advanced playing fields for advanced swing traders only. Retail making use of this soft close and betting on the continuation will provide the fuel for a spike as they cover and become trapped in a squeeze. Even when smart money appears to have a gun pointed at the head, it always finds the time to mass his troops in defence (now you see why this weekend was vital!!!!)... If you are keen to learn, you should model yourself around these premises. All the best and thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Rate Differentials Chartpack A rather quick update here as markets find a floor rate differentials as widely anticipated. It is no surprises for those following the chart previously: For the technicals, those with a background in waves will know this is a textbook example of an ABC correction after a 5 wave sequence; Things are a lot clearer in the FX board as we begin the flows in EURUSD: Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc. As usual jump into the comments with your ideas and views to open the discussion for all!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | US10Y Market Commentary 2019.13.12A timely update to the US10Y Yield chart as we breakout with November highs in scope. We will not be covering US fundamentals here today and instead will focus on key technicals in play. For the flows in our map for today and the rest of 2019 we have the key levels in play (highly recommend adding all to charts): Steel Support => 1.65 Strong Support => 1.70 Soft Support => 1.78 Soft Resistance => 1.90 Strong Resistance => 1.98 Steel Resistance => 2.05 For those wanting to dig deeper into what and why we are trading these lows, it is the same swing as widely discussed in October: Best of luck all those in Fixed Income and in particular US Yields for the final months in 2019...a difficult environment to say the least. Highly recommend all to dig deeper into the macro picture built on Telegram and in the previous chart archives. Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
3