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Us2y

Bond markets pricing in a possible recessionary scenarioSpread between US 2 year yield and Fed Funds Rate is one of the key indidcators to watch out for the state of the economy. Fed Funds Rate is an overnight rate. Historically, before any recessionary scenarios the spread was seen moving to negative territory, during Middle East Crisis in 1989/1990, dotcom crisis in 2000/2001 and Credit crisis in 2008. Currently, the spread is at -1.67%, second lowest in history only to 2008 Credit crisis which was at -1.76%. This leads to a strong conclusion that the interest rate markets are possibly pricing in a recessionary scenario. Interesting times ahead...
TVC:US02Y
by scorpiomanoj
2
$DXY & $TNX & Rates show signs of exhaustionThe US #Dollar has pulled back a bit: At MAJOR SUPPORT At Green Moving Avg = Support RSI is at 50 (neutral bullish unless crosses lower) Weekly TVC:DXY is 50-50 The RSI is curling over but the MACD is now above 0 = down trend over Hmmm, interesting scenario Not sure what to make of it Monthly #currency ------------------------------- The 2Yr #Yield broke the recent up trend. While it has performed better than shorter term #interestrates it's gotten weaker recently. The RSI & MACD have been trending lower for some time and it's much easier to see on a weekly! Look @ that Severe Negative Divergence! Could rates be DONE? ------------------------------- The 10 Yr #Yield on the other hand has built good deal of steam lately. Weekly it is overbought. Monthly it's overbought as well. But what is interesting is that the MACD has only been higher 1x than current scenario. MACD histogram lower (arrow) = future MACD neg crossover? However, it's nowhere near as weak as short term #interestrates TVC:TNX
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
NAS100 - a momo juggernaut targeting 13,800The NAS100 has rallied 12.5% since the 13 March low, and while starting to look overbought, momentum is clearly strong. The closing break of the bull flag and 12,893 horizontal resistance offers a technical target of 13,800. Price is bull trending and hugging the upper Bollinger Band, with pullbacks contained to the 5-day EMA. Fundamentally, if capital continues to flow into US treasuries and yields – both nominal and real – are grinding lower, then growth stocks and mega-cap tech should outperform. A weaker US non-farm payrolls this Friday and further concerns around the US banks that keep rate cuts priced for 2023 would be a bullish catalyst.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
OECD Leading Indicator vs. Market Cycles - Updated 122022 Today's post is inspired by the work of @CMT_Association here on @TradingView, and is designed to give some insight into financial market vs. business cycle timing: We will be comparing various assets to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) for the 🇺🇸. Keep in mind that readings above 100 (green dotted line) suggest economic expansion to come while readings below 100 suggests broader economic weakness, and likely economic recession based on history. Given the the index is currently trading below 100 , and possibly continuing to fall — what does this mean for the economic outlook going forward, specifically as it compares to S&P 500 (SPY ES1! SPX), DXY (U.S. Dollar), Federal Reserve Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS), 2/10 Yield Curve Inversion (US02Y US10Y), U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY), U.S. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Crude Oil (CL1! USOIL), Lumber Futures (LBS1!), Gold (GOLD), Silver (SILVER), U.S. Mortgage Rates (USALOLITONOSTSAM), and possible timing of the financial market(s) recovery? Let's have a look at some of the charts as they highlight that real economic weakness is likely into H1/23', paired with the potential beginning of a financial asset recovery as the business cycle works through its bottoming process. Chart Key for Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): 📊🗝 Green Dotted Line (Horizontal): >100 = Economic Expansion Orange Dotted Line (Horizontal): Current Reading Red Dotted Line (Horizontal): Historic Danger Zone Black Dashed Lines (Vertical): Pre-Recession OECD Leading Indicator Peak If you want a copy of this chart, here is the link to make a copy: 📊👇🏼 www.tradingview.com S&P 500 SPX 1991-Present (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): S&P 500 SPX 2006-2017 (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): S&P 500 SPX 2016-Present (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): U.S. Dollar DXY (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): US02Y Treasury (Black Link) vs. Federal Reserve Fed Funds Rate FEDFUNDS (Blue Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): US02Y/US10Y Yield Curve Inversion (Baseline >0%, <0% Curve Inverted = Trouble in Markets) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Crude Oil USOIL CL1! (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Lumber LBS1! (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): GOLD (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): SILVER (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): U.S. Mortgage Rates (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Here is the updated release schedule for the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) for 2023: 🗓 data.oecd.org Learn more about the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) using the link below: 💡 data.oecd.org What is your takeaway(s) from these charts? 👇🏼
TVC:US10Y
by kylemusserco
📊US10Y: probable fall📊 The yield on 10-year US bonds has increased by 105% since February of this year. During this time, market participants have paid special attention to the level of 2.74%, that currently acts as the main support. The current trend towards the strengthening of the US dollar would continue to put pressure on the yield on US 10-year bonds and on the economy as a whole. The spread between 2-year and 10-year bonds adds more fuel to the fire. The yield on 2-year bonds is higher than on 10-year bonds: This graph shows clear signs of a recession, which is no longer in doubt. All signs of the deepest crisis on the face. ☝️ It is necessary to remember: 🔴 In a favorable economic situation, the yield curve has a convex shape, namely, short rates are lower than long ones, that reflects the positive economic expectations of the market❗️ 🔴 Inversion - when short is higher than long - this is a signal of an impending recession, but this type usually does not last long❗️ 🔴 A flat curve indicates that the market sees hopeless stagnation, which is what we are actually seeing now❗️ Technical analysis speaks more in favor of sales than longs: the right shoulder of the "head and shoulders" reversal pattern is being formed, the base of this model is just the same at the level of 2.74% mentioned earlier. The final moment in this "sell history" is the breaking of the Moving Average down, which indicates the beginning of at least a downward correction. Prospects for downward movement are at the level of 2.39%. In any case, an alternative scenario assumes a pause in growth, but a downward correction is more likely, that may be less than the declared movement according to the main scenario. -------------------------- Thanks for support, subscribe and share your ideas here 👇 --------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by Market-Mentor
Tut Tut - US10Y-US2Y rises to highest in 3 yearsCurve Steepening is alive and well as the basis point difference between the US 10-year bonds and the US 2-year bonds reaches its highest level since 2017. This largely due to the Fed purchasing of shorter term bonds every month as part of its QE program to support the economy. Expect this trend to continue as the Fed maintains its support and refrains from purchasing longer dated bonds. However, should the Fed announce they are now going to purchase longer dated bonds, then a quick reversal is on the cards.
TVC:US10Y
by majicktrader
S&P may sink again sparkingA few things. 1. Over the last 2 years every time S&P has made a higher high and reached RSI down trend it has fallen hard. 2. Bonds are currently signaling stress and deflation despite trillions of QE. For reference see; US2's/10's , TLT. 3. Many eyes are on the DXY breakdown however that is mostly skewed toward EUR, Yen, GBP. The broad trade weighed USD is still very bullish. 4. Net USD positioning is net short. If there is a wobble in stocks safe haven demand for dollar will cause a massive short squeeze in USD. 5. Golds correlation with negative yielding debt confirming much higher bond prices (lower yields).
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by b_goleman
US2y to stay below 1.500The chart patterns indicated that the US2Y yield is going to break and stay below 1.500. The implications are that the spread (or difference) between US10Y minus US2Y is getting smaller. This, in turn, is suggesting reversion or a correction in US Indices towards the mean You can see the initial chart pattern A, which led to the corresponding drop to point 1, and chart pattern B, which led to drop point 2 I think the US2Y will hold at 1.418 and then fall to 1.365 as the maximum potential drop
TVC:US02YShort
by supratimbarman
1