DOW JONES Is a post Fed decline valid before an October rally?The day has come when the Fed will finally cut the Interest Rates for the first time since the early 2022 hike cycle and the question in the market is whether it will be by -0.25% or -0.5%.
High volatility is expected intra-day but technically Dow Jones (DJI) remains within an uptrend (Channel Up) both medium-term (5-months) and long-term (2 years). The last support and bounce was offered by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on September 11 and that broke the remarkable symmetry that the index had so far with the March - August 2023 fractal.
That fractal suggested that after a (dotted) Channel Up, the index should make a correction below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but on September 11 instead of breaking below the 1D MA50, the index rebounded (as mentioned above) and diverged from the fractal.
This means that the Bullish Led (green Channel Up) may this time start earlier and the rally may break above the 2-year Channel Up and finally deliver a new long-term pattern, possibly more aggressive.
Seasonality however is a big factor for investors and as we can see, the last two Septembers (2023, 2022) have been bearish, extending corrections that started in August but eventually managed to price a bottom in October.
As a result, any remark by Chair Powell during the press conference that isn't well received by the market, can initiate a short-term pull-back towards the 1D MA200, ranging from -5.07% to -6.90%.
In our opinion, if that takes place, it will be a tremendous buy opportunity until at least the end of the year. If however Powell delivers what the market is expecting (and more), we expect the pattern to continue its divergence from the 2023 fractal and enter the more aggressive bullish pattern earlier. If the more aggressive pattern prevails, a 46000 target is very probable by the end of the year.
Notice that this divergence is also evident when comparing the 1D RSI sequences of the two fractals.
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US30
DOW JONES: Is it forming a BLOW OFF TOP??Dow Jones isn't just having a strong bullish momentum on the 1D timeframe but also on its 1W technical outlook where it maintains a steady bullish overall indicator score (RSI = 64.010, MACD = 036.840, ADX = 29.553). However there are growing concerns coming from the 1W chart as the 1W RSI is posting a Bearish Divergence, trading on a Channel Down while the actual price is on a Channel Up.
This is alarming because last time this showed up was in late 2021 and as we all know led to the bear market of 2022. However the Bearish Divergence prior to that (mid 2017) was false and Dow continued to rise instead for another 4 months before a correction to its 1W MA50. And that is the level that plays the most important role here, the 1W MA50. As long as it continues to support, we will have a bullish trend.
Actually, Dow seems to be attempting a breakout over the Channel Up this month, unlike December 2021. Failure to break though can result into a blow off top.
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Usdjpy 1:3 risk reward ratio done i share this idea in previous.Usdjpy 1:3 risk reward ratio done i share this idea in previous. i take a trade in this pair and booked some profit
i didn't reccomend any to take my trade because if my analyze goes in my favour then people like and if my TRADE IDEA GO AGAINST then some people say - if you don't know hoe to trade then why you post it , that's why i'm not going to share any trade that anyone can enter on trade and blame me .....
US30, WAITING FOR PULL BACK THEN SHORTTeam, this morning, I predicted the US30 is likely to move according to the chart.
9 hours later, it finally arrived at the dot.
We will enter the short at 41646 once the price confirm.
Take 50% profit at 41590, bring stop loss to BE level.
then target further toward 41482
and 41361.
US30 longHere is why:
- August's monthly closure was very bullish as the candlestick has left a long wick. This shows that price had collected orders from the previous weekly liquidity regions before heading upwards.
- As of right now, price has broken into all time highs, which indicates that price is going higher. The weekly targets would be 42,450.
- Price is very bullish but I will have to wait for it to form a buy setup on lower timeframes before I enter into the trade.
US30 / Consolidation 41565 - 41340Futures kick off Fed meeting week on a cautious note
U.S. stock index futures were flat to slightly higher on Monday as caution prevailed ahead of a pivotal monetary policy decision by the Federal Reserve later in the week, with investors pricing in a steep reduction in borrowing costs.
Technically:
The price will touch 41565 and then by stabilizing under it, will consolidate between 4155 and 41340 till breaking
However, stability above 41565 will be uptrend toward 41800, Otherwise, stability under 41340 will support falling toward 41030
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 41565
Resistance Levels: 41700, 41800, 41950
Support Levels: 41340, 41030, 40800
Trend:
- Consolidation 41565 - 41340
- Uptrend above 41565
- Downtrend below 41340
Bearish reversal?US30 is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could fall to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 41,602.008
1st Support: 40,914.12
1st Resistance: 42,016.97
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Dow Jones in correction rangeConsidering the price gap that has been created, which has not been filled from any side, as well as touching the ceiling of the upward movement, we expect the price to be corrected until the price gap is filled. According to the chart, short trades can be entered in two ranges
US30 - Rate Cut Uncertainty Drives Market ConsolidationFutures Muted Amid Uncertainty Over Fed Rate Cut Size
Traders are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of a significant rate cut, with the probability of a 50-basis point cut now at 41%, up from 14% last Thursday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley has advocated for a strong case in favor of a 50-bps cut.
Technically:
Currently, the market is likely to test 41,030 before advancing towards 41,340, as it consolidates within the 41,030 to 41,340 range. As long as the price remains above 41,030, it is expected to attempt to reach 41,340. However, closing a 4-hour candle below 41,030 could signal a bearish trend towards 40,810.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 41,180
Resistance Levels: 41340, 41550, 41900
Support Levels: 41030, 40800, 40670
Expected Trading Range: 41,030 - 41,340
Trend: Consolidation between 41,030 and 41,340.
Above 41,030 indicates an uptrend, while below 41,030 downtrend.
Previous idea:
US30 swing trade idea US30 has reached our level of interest between 41150- 41250 where we look for swing sell setups. Currently waiting for the last impulse upward to get confirmations from the weekly fib and VWAP levels. This is similar to NAS trade, which we sent our earlier. For TP levels, we are currently targeting 40550(750 points) but keeping in mind that this trade has a lot of potential going lower in the last quarter of 2024. Should we break our level of interest, it is likely that we are making a new All Time High. As always, trade safely as you possibly can and always wait for confirmations, before entering a trade. Good luck!
Expect the unexpected.
Fractals Trading Community,
Mei
US30 I H4 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 41,231.06, which is a pullback resistance aligning with a 78.6% FIbo retracement and 127.2% Fibo extension
Our take profit will be at 40,576.81, a pullback support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 41.668.62, above the swing-high resistance level.
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DOW JONES: Aiming at 42,300 if the 1D MA50 keeps supporting.Dow Jones is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.462, MACD = 83.230, ADX = 39.913) as it has recovered exactly 50% of last week's pullback. The rebound started exactly on the 1D MA50, empowering the bullish sentiment inside the Channel Up, despite the fact that the price is trading over its median.
If the 1D MA50 keeps supporting, the 1D MACD is near a Bull Cross, which inside the Channel Up, is the trigger signal for more upside. This is a strong bullish case for us and within October we are expecting a new HH (TP = 42,300).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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US30 / DJ30 / DJI Market Money Heist Plan on Bearish SideHola ola My Dear,
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US30 - It looks a retest while below 41030Futures Edge Higher Ahead of Jobless Claims Data
The price rebounded after touching its support zone around 40,000, then gaining approximately 900 points.
Currently, it is likely to test 41,030 before potentially reversing toward 40,670, as the market is consolidating between these levels. However, sustained trading above 41,030 would favor a bullish continuation, targeting 41,180 and 41,340.
also today we have PPI and Jobless data that will impact the market
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 40,960
Resistance Levels: 41,180, 41,340, 41,550
Support Levels: 40,680, 40,470, 40,320
Expected Trading Range: 40,660 - 41,030
A breakout above 41,030 would confirm bullish momentum, while failure to hold above this level could trigger further declines.
Dow Jones Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around 40750 zone, US30 was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 40750 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.