US30
US30: Sell Opportunity After Red Line RejectionUS30 has shown a strong rejection at the red line, signaling a potential sell trade. Keep an eye on price action as it approaches the green levels—possible bounce zones where a reversal could occur. These key areas may provide both continuation and counter-trend opportunities for day traders.
Got questions about these lines? Drop a comment, and follow for more real-time insights!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly!
XAUUSD | Trade idea- **Gold Price:** Gold is holding above $2,500 ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll data, having reached a high of $2,523 yesterday and currently trading around $2,517.
- **US Economy Expectations:**
- August Non-Farm Payroll is expected to increase by 164,000, up from 114,000 in the previous month.
- Unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.5%, from 6.4%.
- **Rate Cut Probability:** The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has decreased to 57% from 70% a week ago (CME Fed Watch Tool).
- **US Dollar Index:**
- Bullish outlook with minor support around 101.20/100.50.
- Near-term resistance at 102/102.80.
- **Gold Price Drivers:**
- **Global Stock Market:** Bearish, which is positive for gold.
- **US Dollar Index:** Bullish, which is negative for gold.
- **US 10-Year Bond Yield:** Bearish, positive for gold.
- **Technical Analysis:**
- **Support:** Near-term support at $2,470; a break below targets $2,449/$2,430.
- **Resistance:** Minor resistance at $2,520; a break above could lead to $2,525/$2,530.
US30: A record Higher High is On The Way $43000! Swing TradeBLACKBULL:US30
Fundamentals supports our idea, while looking at the technical side we can confirm that price will drop around 39k to 39.5k this is the zone which remain a key level for the big buyers. Ideally we would wait for price to approach our key level and then take buy entry. However, we might see early price mitigation around $40000 region. Good luck.
DOW JONES correction to extend until the Fed.Dow Jones (DJI) did what we expected of it 3 weeks ago (August 13, see chart below) and after pricing a Higher Low at the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up, it rebounded and reached the All Time High (ATH), pricing a Higher High:
In continuation of that analysis, we now expect the new Bearish Leg to extend to possibly as low as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which was the case with the May 30 pull-back.
The 1D RSI suggests that a 35.00 value would be ideal to signal a buy (same as May 30, see how both RSI fractals priced the top on the 70.00 overbought limit), while a Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD would be the final confirmation of the buy.
Our long-term Target remains 42400 (+11.00% from the Higher Low, the same % rise as the July 18 High).
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S&P500 INDEX (US500): Strong Intraday Bearish Signal
Update for US500.
Earlier, we spotted a breakout of a support line of a horizontal
trading range on a daily.
Retesting a broken structure, the market formed a symmetrical triangle
pattern on a 4H time frame.
Bearish breakout of the support of the triangle gives us a strong intraday bearish signal.
We can anticipate a bearish continuation now.
First goal - 5450
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US30 , Today 09/05/2024 Strategy - Sell Or Buy ?!Strategy Overview:
In this chart of the US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index), the price action is forming a rising channel within the 15-minute timeframe. The trendlines highlighted suggest potential buy and sell zones based on the interactions with these lines.
Key Elements:
Trendline Structure:
Buy Side: The lower trendline is acting as dynamic support. Each time the price touches this line, there's a buying opportunity, which has resulted in several bullish movements in the past.
Sell Side: The upper trendline represents resistance. When the price approaches this area, it faces selling pressure.
Trading Strategy:
Buying Strategy: A buy trade can be initiated if the price retraces back to the Buy Side trendline (around 40,937), with a stop loss placed just below this support line. The target would be a movement toward the upper Sell Side trendline (near 41,043).
Selling Strategy: A sell trade can be considered when the price reaches or slightly breaks through the Sell Side trendline. A stop loss can be placed above this level, with a target back down towards the Buy Side.
Confirmation with RSI:
The RSI indicator shows both overbought and oversold conditions frequently, which complements the trendline strategy. Currently, RSI is around neutral, meaning there’s potential for either direction depending on where the price moves next within the channel.
Conclusion:
This strategy uses both support and resistance levels created by the rising channel to define entry and exit points for buy and sell positions. The interaction of the price with these trendlines, along with RSI confirmation, provides a clear framework for making trading decisions in this timeframe.
US30: First green dayHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2 ✅
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day ✅
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump
Dump&Pump ✅
Frontside ✅
Backside
4. THESIS:
Long: primary, first green day signal potentially is a sign of bullish move, I will be waiting for a 3 session setup dump and pump in the day itself, after all the news. All the trades will be taken after 10am NYT.
Short: secondary, although the signal day, I can't exclude a scalp setup back into the LOW, retesting the area for the main trade on tomorrow.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
US30/DOW30 - Preparing stageTeam, we are preparing to short US30 once the price set up confirm at 41035-50. However if the price continue to pass the above price 41150 then we need to review again. Please do not enter yet. We would prefer to trade during US marketing opening.
if it go according to our plan, Short will be place around 41035-50, with stop loss at 41232.40
TARGET 1 - 40898.40
TARGET 2 - 40603.10
TARGET 3 - 40297.70
We will update once we are in the market, please check our update comment below the chart. Thank you
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Important Bearish Signal
US500 was consolidating for quite a long period of time around
the level of a current all-time high and formed a range.
After the release of the yesterday's US fundamentals, the Index dropped
and formed a high momentum bearish candle.
A daily candle closed below a support of the range, confirming its violation.
We can expect a bearish continuation lower now.
Next support - 5432
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US30 Bearish 4HTF(4H Div, Dow BOS)US30 showing bearish momentum supported by 4H Divergence and DOW Break of Structure (BOS). Based on the seasonality chart of last 30 years, US30 performs bearish in the month of September.
Entry is taken as Sell Stop slightly below the previous HL.
SL is placed above previous HH
TP is taken based on 1:1 and 1:2 R:R.
Note: Break Even if TP1 hits.
What do you think, will it work?
US30 shortsHere is why:
- I believe that US30 is due for a very strong uptrend in the near future. However, orders are not enough to take the pair to all time highs.
- Hence, we saw the rush of downward momentum.
- There is a bearish setup on the 4 hour timeframe and the targets are 40,583
- I am currently looking to sell the pair, but I have to wait for more confluence.
- The best possible scenario, is if price tests 40,950 before I look to sell the pair to 40,580
- Another scenario I would sell the pair is if it forms a setup at 40,790 during the new york session.
- For now, I sit on my hands as I wait for the pair to give me more confluence to sell.
US30 longHere is why:
- Price broke all time highs, therefore there is evidence of price going higher
- The monthly, weekly and daily candlestick closures are showing evidence that price is definitely going higher.
- On the 4 hour timeframe I can see that price has reached a major level of resistance. However, there is no convincing rejection, indicating that price is going higher.
- I would have to wait for a convincing buy pattern, before I enter long. Therefore I am waiting for buy confluences to form on the 4 hour timeframe. Moreover, I would have to wait for the New York session before I make any move.
Breaking down Dow Jones Elliott WavesThe above chart is my main hypothesis for the Elliott Wave count of Dow Jones which represents the Elliott Wave Analysis of the Bull Market Post 2008 financial crisis.
Kindly read all the details to better understand the Elliott Wave analysis and how Elliott Waves can be used to give us an edge in trading.
Currently it looks like we are in an Ending Diagonal waves. The reason we are in Ending Diagonal Wave 3 instead of Wave B of ABC flat is because we are too far up now for our current market to be considered in wave B of an ABC flat.
The 2008 crisis bear market was an ABC flat, if you look, we crashed at that time when Wave B was at around 138% of Wave A.
I have attached sub wave structure of the rally we have seen so far after the COVID crash.
I have explained my reasoning for my wave counts in the chart which you can take a look.
Now moving further inside our sub waves, below chart shows the sub wave structure of the ABC wave we are in since 27 October, 2023
Further moving inside our sub waves, the chart below shows the breakdown waves of our this year move. Once all the waves shown in the below chart finish, we should see a correction towards our Post COVID peak price levels.