DOW JONES: Neutral 1D means buy opportunity.Dow Jones is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.536, MACD = 330.150, ADX = 20.923) as it is on the bearish wave of the 4H Channel Up, towards the 4H MA200, which on November 19th priced the last HL. The 4H RSI got oversold and rebounded today above its MA period, which twice before has been a buy signal. We are going long here, aiming at the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 45,400).
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US30
$USIRYY -U.S CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:USIRYY
(November/2024)
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
"US Inflation Rate Rises to 2.7%, Matching Expectations "
-The annual inflation rate in the US rose to 2.7% in November,
from 2.6% in October and matching markets expectations pushed up by food cost.
On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.3%, the most since April, slightly above October's 0.2%, driven mostly by higher prices of shelter.
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Gold overall is still holding bearish. I originally expected a ‘Flat Correction’ on the lower bound of the range, but price is now creating that same correction, on the upper bound of the range. Market analysis is still valid & I’m still holding my sell position’s open.
Market structure would be invalidated if price broke ABOVE previous Wave 5 high.
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Gold overall is still holding bearish. I originally expected a ‘Flat Correction’ on the lower bound of the range, but price is now creating that same correction, on the upper bound of the range. Market analysis is still valid & I’m still holding my sell position’s open.
Market structure would be invalidated if price broke ABOVE previous Wave 5 high.
DOW JONES 25-year Cycles show the clear picture you should know.Almost 8 months ago (April 12, see chart below), just when Dow Jones (DJI) was recovering from April's correction, we sent a clear message not to lose sight of the greater picture and to stay bullish:
The reason was the index' clear cyclical pattern since the February 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. The index has grown by +17% since that analysis (from 38459 to 45080) and we can't see a reason not to complete the pattern and hit our 48850 Target, which is our projection for this Cycle's Top.
On this updated chart is on the 1W time-frame, in contrast with April's which was on the 1M, we have added to key elements. The Channel Up that is dictating the pace of the Bull Cycle since the Feb 2009 bottom and the Fibonacci retracement levels, which show that after the Bull Cycle topped, the subsequent Bear Cycle corrected within the 0.236 - 0.382 Fibonacci Zone at least before the bottom was formed.
In fact, all Cycles hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) upon the Bear corrections and those didn't start before the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) was broken (1M candle close below). Our 48850 Target is technically the minimum estimate as that was the % rise of the previous one (Cycle 4), which was the least aggressive compared to others (Cycle 3 = +77.19%, Cycle 2 = +75.09%, Cycle 1 = +99.62%). If Cycle 5 peaks higher, we will draw the Fibonacci retracement levels from that top and re-adjust our expected 0.382 Fibonacci bottom for the Bear Cycle (or if the 1M MA50 gets hit first).
As far as timing of the Cycle 5 Top is concerned, we expect that to be on December 2025 the earliest, again based on the Cycle with the minimum time length (Cycle 3), excluding Cycle 1 which was the most aggressive as it was the first after the U.S. Housing Crisis bottom.
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US30 Is Bullish! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for US30.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 44,204.8.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 45,600.0.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Bullish bounce?DJ30 is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 44,106.94
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 50%^ Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 43,791.93
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 44,547.96
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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DOW JONES cyclical trend points bottom is near.DOW JONES / US30 is trading inside a Channel Up pattern for the past 4 months.
Right now it is on a technical pullback towards the 4hour MA200, having already crossed under the 4hour MA50.
The 4hour MA200 was the level that supported the previous pullback that bottomed on November 19th.
Inside this pattern, every pullback corrected to the 0.5 Fibonacci level and was a buy opportunity while the 4hour RSI turned oversold under its 30.00 level.
Time this buy entry and target 45600, which is the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, the level that priced all prior highs inside this Channel Up.
Previous chart:
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US30: Key Levels and Bearish Outlook Below 44410Technical Analysis
The price has dropped approximately 320 pip, as mentioned in the previous analysis, and has now stabilized below 44410. This supports a bearish outlook, with the next target being 44130. A break below 44130 with a 4-hour or 1-hour candle close will confirm further downside to 43900.
To signal a bullish correction, the price needs to break above 44410 by closing a 4-hour candle above this level, potentially targeting 44590.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 44410
Resistance Levels: 44590, 44750, 44920
Support Levels: 44270, 43900, 43760
Trend Outlook:
Bearish below 44410, with targets at 44130 and 43900.
Bullish correction above 44410, targeting 44590.
PREVIOUS IDEA:
US30 Short Setup: Riding the Retrace to Key Support Levels!Since the elections, traditional markets have been climbing to new highs, showcasing strong bullish momentum. However, I’m now eyeing a short opportunity on the Dow Jones (US30) as it retraces to key support zones around 44,400–44,500. This area appears to be a strong support zone, and my plan is to capitalize on the retracement for a potential long setup near the 44,000 price range.
Currently, US30 is trading below the FibCloud, suggesting room for a retrace to the 44,800 level before continuing lower. My strategy here is to profit from the retracement, then re-evaluate for a long trade based on market conditions near the support levels.
Key Levels:
• Support Zone: 44,300–44,500
• Resistance Zone: 44,800
• Take Profit: 44,440
• Stop Loss: Above 45,100
Market Outlook:
With tomorrow being a U.S. bank holiday, volume may vary significantly. I’ll closely monitor price action and market reactions for further confirmation. This trade aligns with the broader market behavior while taking advantage of shorter-term retracements.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
DOW LONGDow at bottom of channel and downward trend line also coincides with 61.8 retracement from low and 88.6 from recent low....Im long from here stop just below the box as the lower box is always a possibility
Bearish drop?Dow Jones (US30) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the pullback support.
Pivot: 44,592.03
1st Support: 44,083.28
1st Resistance: 45,084.89
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US30 / Dropped and Still Continue Within Bearish Trend Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Already dropped and stabilized below 44755 which means still has a bearish volume to get 44410, it's possible to do a retest till 44750 and then start within a bearish trend.
To be bullish trend should break 44760 by closing the 4h candle above it, to get 44920
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 44680
Resistance Levels: 44750, 44920, 45090
Support Levels: 44410, 44270, 43900
previous idea:
Gold 1H Intra-Day Chart 09.12.2024Gold is in a neutral zone right now, but overall I am bearish. Here is what I am looking for next;
Option 1: Gold keeps dropping in its bear trend. Our target is $2,580. You can see the zig zag move Gold is creating. We saw a break below + retest so should continue now.
Option 2: If Gold moves above $2,690 next week then we can see a mid term bull trend towards $2,740 before it drops back down again.
Dollar Index Bullish to $109! (UPDATE)The DXY is up 600 PIPS (6%) in profit, after rejecting our grey buying zone. We still have much more upside left to go in the COMING MONTHS!
There are many people who are now panicking & trying to sell the Dollar because bullish momentum has slowed down. Bare in mind, this is only a correction for buyers, not a complete reversal. Hold firm & let the market do its thing🦾
DJIA H4 | Approaching overlap supportDJIA (US30) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 44,527.74 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 43,710.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 45,542.92 which is a level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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DOW JONES (1h) Death Cross turning into a buy signal soon.Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Up that is long term supported by the MA50 (1d).
On Monday we will see a Death Cross (1h), which inside the Channel Up has been usually formed halfway through a Channel Down/bearish leg that forms the new Low.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy by next Wendesday the latest.
Targets:
1. 46000 (under a +8.31% rise from the last Low, which is where the October 18th High was priced).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) tends to form a bottom when it hits 30.00 (oversold limit). Be ready to buy if it hits that level earlier than next Wednesday.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Gold 1H Intra-Day Chart 06.12.2024Here is what I am looking for next;
Option 1: Gold keeps dropping in its bear trend. Our target is $2,580. You can see the zig zag move Gold is creating. We saw a break below + retest so should continue now.
Option 2: If Gold moves above $2,690 next week then we can see a mid term bull trend towards $2,740 before it drops back down again.
US30 Closing first red day on the NFP dayHello traders and thanks for reading and supporting my idea!
US30 is actually building an interesting template and today it could complete a weekly pump and dump template. But to understand better the logic behind this template, let's analyse day by day what happened this week.
Monday, sets up the opening range of the week, the high low of the week is now in place and overall it was a dumping day as you can see during NY session time.
Tuesday expanded the range to the downside, closing back inside the range at the end of the day. That's our box of the week, money are lying above and below these extremes.
Wednesday nothing really interesting happened, considering that the price stayed inside the range almost all the day, slightly retesting the HOW just before the end of the day, closing the day in breakout, which is very important because now, breakout traders long are in the market and potentially driving this move.
Thursday consolidated almost all the day up high into the HOW, every attempt to break higher failed, eventually trapping the traders long in the wrong direction, stopping them out at the end of the day, closing the market as first red day and with breakout short traders involved.
Today, Friday, I can see the market placing a lower low into the low of day, which potentially reinforce the weakness of this market, and it's currently consolidating/coiling just below the closing price.
Overall, we are inside the previous weekly high low range, so I will be targeting the current LOW if the short scenario is identified.
As always, the template can give a thesis but a setup can drive the move, the following notes will explain better both the scenarios.
Gianni
DOW JONES: Short term consolidation to lead to 46,100.Dow Jones is on a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.961, MACD = 523.800, ADX = 24.313) as the bullish trend inside the 5 month Channel Up is still intact. In fact it is not just intact but the index is basically on All Time High levels, supported by the 4H MA50. The Channel Up is highly symmetric and technically we believe we are on the same level as September 30th. The index was inside a shorter term Channel Up, which after a 4H MA100 test, it rallied to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. The bearish divergence on the 4H RSI was as evident then as it is now. The two fractals are virtually identical, hence we project a similar result. Buy and target the 1.5 Fib (TP = 46,100).
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GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)While everyone is getting very impatient with Gold's consolidation, I'm sitting here in peace. I told you all on the FIRST ANALYSIS that we have a 'Flat Correction' from the EW Theory strategy currently playing out. This means a 3 Sub-Wave (A,B,C) schematic playing out within a tight range.
Now waiting for a break below the current consolidation, so price can create Wave B around $2,580 & consolidate within a larger range.