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US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05242022US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05242022 An erratic day today. Price slightly pushed up after my last post. Stopped me out at approximately 31767. I then got back in to another sell order around 31725 around NY open. Shortly thereafter price dropped about 300 points, I was trailing my stops so I locked in 200 points at approximately 31500 before price came back up and stopped me out. Since then in late NY session price has now pushed up to around the 31950 level. I have entered a sell position around this level, 31950 - 31990 My stop is above this recent structure that has formed, 100 points out at 32050. If price pushes up to my SL level then that will indicate that price is pushing up past these structure highs to form new highs and higher lows. If the bears come back into play here I anticipate price will drop down to atleast the 31400 level tested earlier today if not further down to 31000. I will be trailing my stops as always and see where this goes. I'll see you all pre NY session tomorrow! Have a great night!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - PRE NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05242022US30 - PRE NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05242022 After a nice push up yesterday, price is hanging out around the 31600 - 31700 level. It looks like price may be forming a higher lower, turning previous resistance into support. However, the overall bias is still definitely bearish and I've entered a sell position around 31660 as the previous H1 candle appeared to be exhausted while attempting to form this new higher low. If I'm stopped out at 31760 then I will be looking to see if price pushes up to the previous level of structure around 31900 in confluence with the 61.8 fib level and supply zone in this same area. If this occurs then I will be looking to get in once I see signs of exhaustion/reversal with a 100 point stop around 32000. Hopefully it moves in my direction and I'll begin trailing my stop at around +125 points if it gets to that point. I'll do my best to post again post market today however I'm still dealing with my Abuela in the hospital so I may have to push until pre-market tomorrow. Have a great trading day! Let's get this bag :)
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
2
US30 - PRE NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05232022US30 - PRE NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05232022 Price has pushed back up to the zone/previous level of structure in the 31400 - 31600 area. It appears that it is retesting this previous structure before it continues with the overall bearish sentiment evident on the higher TFs. I am looking for price to fully pull back into this zone, my sweet spot I am targeting is 31500 - 31650 with a 100 point stop which will put my SL outside recent structure highs. However, I will only enter in this area if I see signs of exhaustion/reversal forming on the M5, M15, M30, and/or H1 TFs. Let's see what happens but this can potentially be an easy 1:3 minimum RRR trade. Have a great trading day and see you after NY session today!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 Weekly Outlook - Where are we headed?! - 05232022US30 Weekly Outlook - Where are we headed?! - 05232022 Last week was absolutely crazy for US30! There was a HUGE drop on Thursday 05192022 with a lot of volatility throughout the week. The sentiment on US30 is still definitely Bearish in my opinion. On the monthly we are seeing a huge bearish candle with 9 days left. We're also pushing down to the 38.2 fib level on the monthly timeframe beginning from the bottom of the Covid drop in March 2020 and the subsequent bull run. On the weekly we are seeing this reinforced by higher highs and higher lows forming while price is breaking thru previous levels of support. Most recently this past Friday 05202022 price broke past a Weekly level of support/resistance at 30958. It then pushed back up late Friday session however it is very likely that this level will get retested again in the near future. On the daily, H4, and H1 timeframes we are seeing further confirmation of this with actually very clean structure forming lower highs and lower lows on these TFs. I have adjusted my fib down to this new low of approximately 30650 which was hit on Friday. I anticipate price will push back up the previous structure highs formed in confluence with a 38.2 fib level and H4 supply/demand zone in this same area. If this occurs and price exhibits signs of exhaustion/reversal then I will be looking to get into another sell position, targeting recent lows. 100 point stop above structure, 1:2 RRR minimum, begin trailing stop at +150 points leaving a 100 point buffer. I'll see you tomorrow morning pre NY session. Enjoy the rest of your Sunday!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
2
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05172022US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05172022 Price has just been hanging around between 32200 and 32700 today There was a sell opportunity at approximately 6AM EST however I did not enter as I did not think price was close to a reversal zone which would make it a high probability trade. Could have bagged 300 points 1:3 RRR potentially but oh well I'm waiting for the next opportunity. No more major news for the week as far as the US goes. Daddy J. Powell made some comments which sent the market up a few hundred points but I think this may be short lived as price pushes back up to previous levels of resistance near this 32800 - 33000 levels. I will keep an eye out to see what happens during Asian and London sessions but overall on the larger TFs definitely bearish momentum is still intact. Short term buy opportunities may present themselves, if so I will enter at an exhaustion/reversal area with SL outside of structure. Have a good night!
OANDA:US30USD
by ryanweier
US30 - PRE NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05172022US30 - PRE NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05172022 Price has been pushing back up so far this week. Overall from the macro perspective I believe we still are in a bearish market. However, price is breaking above previous structure highs on the lower TFs. With this in mind, I have my eye out to see what price does over the next hours/days. If price continues to push up and forms a floor of support where structure was previously resistance then I may be targeting short term buy opportunities to ride this push up which appears to be a pullback on the higher TFs. I will have my eye closely on this push up to also see if it begins to run out of gas near levels of supply/resistance and exhibit signs of exhaustion/reversal. If so, then I will be looking to get back into a sell order to continue with the overall larger bearish trend. Some significant US sales data news today @ 8:30am and Daddy J. Powell is speaking @ 2pm, other than that smooth sailing the rest of this week with US news. Happy trading and see you after NY session today!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05132022US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05132022 Price bounced around today, didn't go in the direction of my target. I got stopped out around 32050. A couple hours later I re-entered when price started to show exhaustion around the 32050 level which I was previously stopped out at. This was showing some confluence with the MA 66 as a static resistance on the H1 timeframe, along with exhaustion showing on the lower timeframe; M15, M5. I set my stop clear out of structure at 32150. Initially price went in my direction about 100 points. Then it pushed straight back up to my SL at 32150. Did not re-enter and price has just bounced around from about 32200 to 31900. The weekly candle is closing exhausted bearish, this upcoming week might be a pullback, possibly looking for short term buys. I have entered 1 small re-entry order at 32159 which I'm going to leave thru the weekend with my usual 100 point stop at 32260. Let's see if I get stopped out right at market open or what happens. Time to enjoy my weekend; relax, a little backtesting/wsa video watching/reading, and prepare for a new week :) Have a great weekend!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05122022US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05122022 Nice trading day today locking in about 300 points. Got in at 11AM EST on a 15min exhausted bullish candle with a big wick. Entered approximately 31800 and rode down to 31500. Price has since pushed down further to approximately 31200. Over the next hours of Asian and London session I am looking for price to pullback to approximately this same 31800 - 32000 level. If it does, I will be looking for exhaustion/reversal patterns forming with confluences of being near previous structure highs, fib PRZ levels, and supply/demand areas. By the end of this week, price may potentially drop all the way to the weekly support/resistance level of approximately 30900. Have a good night and see you before NY session tomorrow!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05112022US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05112022 Now THAT was a trade! After my last post, price DROPPED after the negative US - PPI news. I was in around 32450 and right at 8:30AM she dropped to the floor, at one point going as low as 31800. I secured profits the whole way down starting at 1:3 RRR approximately at 32150. Hit my TP of 32000 Had a trailing stop running, moved it all the way down to 32050 as price was around 31900. Price came back and stopped me out shortly after NY market open @ 9:30AM I was away from my station but in retrospect, price went back up around my previous entry point and exhibited beautiful exhaustion along with a double top around this 32500 level roughly. Anyone in the market at that time could have gotten a sweet 1:5 - 1:6 RRR trade. Awesome trading day, completely satisfied with my gains! Let's see if we have a fresh high probability opportunity tomorrow morning :) Have a great night!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
1
US30 - PRE NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05102022US30 - PRE NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05102022 Price dropped a bit and pulled back during Asian and early NY session. It did not pull back to the zone that I was hoping for which would have lined up with a weekly SR level and 38.2 fib but it has pulled back to the 23.6 fib level which aligns with the structure highs formed over the last few hours. I have entered a short position around 32513 targeting previous structure low of 32080 My stop is approximately at 32620 approximately 100 points above my entry and also above the same structure highs formed over the last few hours at this 23.6 fib level. I will be trailing my stop by approximately 100 points once the trade passes 150-200 points profit. No major news today which is great. Let's see how this plays out :)
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
1
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05092022Price just kind of bounced around today around the new structure lows formed over the last day or so. I am looking for price to pull back up a bit to previous structure lower highs in confluence with a supply/demand zone in that same area as well as a weekly support/resistance level and 38.2 fib. Expect price to move sideways during Asian session tonight and hopefully pullback during early London session, exhibit some exhaustion/reversal signs, and then I will get in with approximately 1:6 RRR which is fantastic. I will see you before NY session tomorrow! Goodnight!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - PRE NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05092022US30 - PRE NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05092022 The bears have continue their push down starting off this new week, getting down into the 32500 range. I anticipate that price will continue to drop as there are no major support levels to hold price up for a good ways. I am looking and waiting for a pullback to previous levels of supply/demand and then exhibit signs of exhaustion and reversal on the lower timeframes up to H1 to consider an sell entry to continue the downward wave. At the time of this writing I don't see that entry opportunity yet but I will have my eye on it. Happy Monday!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - PRE NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05062022NFP DAY!!! Since my last post, price has literally just moved sideways. Currently there is very little volume in anticipation of NFP @ 8:30AM EST I don't currently see an entry but I am looking for price to pull back into the 33200-33400 range and exhibit signs of exhaustion/reversal. At that point I will consider and entry but it looks like that is atleast a couple hours away. Also have to take into account that it is Friday and I don't particularly like holding trades over the weekend so I may just sit out today and come back fresh next week unless I see a really good opportunity: 1:3 RRR and SL outside of structure. Let's see what happens today. Watch out for news and Happy Friday!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05052022THE BEARS ARE BACK IN TOWN. After the push up yesterday following Daddy J. Powell's comments, the market (shocker) has corrected itself and continued with the overall bearish directional bias. IMO the comments made yesterday about the "strength" of our current economic and labor situation were simply a distraction from the fact that they announced the largest interest rate increase since the year 2000. Had they not made these comments, the markets would have not only gone up, they would have PLUNGED. So instead we had this dog and pony show of "everything is fine" while the house is burning in the background. That's why initially the market jumped up 1000 points after this "news" but today the real market factors came back into play and here we have the result. All of the 1000 point gain that was realized yesterday has been completely erased and by all of my measures, the bears are still in control here. I anticipate price to hover sideways during Asian and early London session. I will then be looking to get back in somewhere around good ole 33200-33300 level to continue the ride downwards, targeting previous structure lows. Have a good night and see you tomorrow morning!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05042022Well that was a doozy! As anticipated, news threw all technicals out the window and pushed price up over 1000 points in 2 hours at the time of this writing. With this new push up we will see where price goes during Asian and London session but it price forms a support at this new 34000 area then potentially we may be looking at a further push up to retest previous levels of support/resistance heading towards 35000. If not, price may run out of gas in this 34000 area and then look to continue the push down to approximately the 33000 or 32500 levels. Have a good night and see you before NY session tomorrow morning!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05032022Price today pushed down to around 33000 and kind of just hovered between there and 33300 Ranging market full of indecision pending tomorrow's FOMC Meeting. Keep an eye on the news for interest rate decision and other news that can send this moving. I anticipate price will continue in this range of 33000 - 33300 throughout Asian session and early London session tonight. From there I think the bearish move will continue with news fueling this but we will see. Have a good night!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 04292022What an end to the month :/ After my last post, price floated sideways for a couple hours then right after market open at 9:30AM EST price shot up and stopped me out @ 33875 then shot back down to my TP of 33400 and continued pushing down all the way to my previous TPs earlier in the week of 33200 and 32950 I have to say I'm a bit salty about this but I'm just going to add some pepper and keep it cooking. In retrospect the 2 things I could have done differently here are: 1. Entered the trade during London session - this would have been the absolute optimal time to enter with a ridiculous risk to reward of 1:5 minimum but the only problem with that is I was asleep and usually am at 2AM. So this is probably not feasible to try and adjust much. 2. Once I was stopped out I could have looked for exhaustion and a sign of the bears coming back into the market on the M1 timeframe. I went down to the M5 and M15 after being stopped out but didn't see any big wicks or clear reversal patterns that indicated to me price was going to start dropping. This combined with a strong bullish close on the H1 off a possible 38.2 fib level on a bullish countertrend and I thought I should just let this one go, and I did :/ 3. Once price dropped a bit I could have gotten back in albeit at a lower level but at an indication of exhaustion on the M15 which did occur. I was already checked out of the market by this point tbh and not in front of my trade station just tracking on mobile so I called it in for the week. I learned some valuable lessons this week including the importance of documenting my trades in detail. I feel that this platform gives me a good place to do this while also sharing my findings and journey with others who are also trying to find their way to consistent profits in this trading game. With that, I hope to continue doing these pre and post NY market analysis videos for my own journaling and growth as a trader but I also hope that maybe you get some value along the way :) Have a great weekend, take a break from the charts and refresh. See you pre NY session on Monday!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier