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US30Y

..an attempt to showcase the flatteningFlattening for the close. Getting a couple of questions re; flattening after the hints in previous idea, for those following 10s30s you will notice the test of 55/54bps is underway. ↳ The latest breakdown is implying we are at the minimum here in an ABC expectation leg towards support ↳ Inflation readings will be key to drive this one, this is signalling a dangerous environment for equities and risk in general going into September. ↳ To the other side, buyers will need to break through 11th May highs to call for reassessment in the flattening view.
TVC:US30YShort
by ridethepig
3
Friday: US30 - Week 35Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by INotFancy
Thursday: US30 - Week 35Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USD
by INotFancy
Tuesday: US30 - Week 35Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by INotFancy
1
Monday: US30 - Week 35Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! For now, the analysis is neutral since there's no clear direction yet, the market is in a corrective phase and therefore still "deciding" about where to go. I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USD
by INotFancy
1
ridethepig | US10Y testing resistanceA timely update to the US10Y Yields chart as we approach key areas. The 1.35% pivot level in the very short term is our line in the sand and will define which battlefield we will play Q3 on. ↳ The waterfall lows from 2020 started the next five wave impulsive sequence to the topside, it will take years for the moves to unfold but critical to understand our long term direction (higher yields). ↳ Typically we will see ebb and flow, particularly in summer months. Now with 1.35% & 1.45% the key resistance areas defined and ready to monitor, all we need to track is for a sustained breach above as will imply buyers are in control and demand reassessment in the view that a base is already in . ↳ Here actively tracking for one more leg lower towards 1.00%, it should be enough to unlock the pressure valve in USD one more time before we see the next leg lower in global equity markets in October (more on this over the coming weeks). [/chart
TVC:US10YShort
by ridethepig
1
Friday: US30 - Week 34Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! For now, the analysis is neutral since there's no clear direction yet, the market is in a corrective phase and therefore still "deciding" about where to go. I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USD
by INotFancy
1
Wednesday: US30 - Week 34Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by INotFancy
Tuesday: US30 - Week 34Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by INotFancy
Monday: US30 - Week 34Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by INotFancy
Currencies - Dollar Rises with QEIdea for Currencies/Macro: - Contrary to popular belief, since 2008, the dollar RISES with Fed Balance Sheet expansion. - There is currently a large divergence which I speculate to close with the dollar rising. Either the Fed Balance Sheet can be reduced, or the dollar will rise... Obviously the balance sheet will not be reduced for a long time, if ever. Why is this so? Doesn't printing more money devalue currency? 1. - Central Bank creates reserves, not a form of liquidity that directly enters the economy. It's still inflationary of course. - G-SIBs and commercial banks can then either rebalance their holdings to purchase assets, or create credit based on this collateral which enters the economy. - These swaps also lower rates, which creates the perception of invincibility and causes price inflation of risk assets (purely speculative!). - However, when debt is serviced (credit impulse turns negative) this destroys liquidity. 2. - A few $trillion from the Fed is just a drop in the eurodollar market, it does not amount to much, relatively speaking. - Other Central Banks have expanding their balance sheets more than the Fed. Since currencies are relative, this is bullish for the dollar. - Eurodollar futures are declining, signaling a SHORTAGE of dollars and liquidity destruction elsewhere, at a greater rate than QE. QE has been ongoing since 2008. Eurodollar market is the market, simply put. Over 90% of international trade is financed through the eurodollar market. I don't think there is any question that a recession is coming when the monetary tightening inevitably comes. Central Banks Balance sheets vs GDP is higher than it was before/during/after the Great Depression or WW2. Total Assets to GDP: IMO yields respond to credit impulse immediately, and their trend supports liquidity destruction in the Eurodollar market. Eurodollar futures are not a currency market but a reflection of LIBOR interest rates. It is an expression of inflation expectations: What is actually happening? - Interest rate driven QE is not working to create economic growth, and we are experiencing global deflation. - QE is failing to create high quality collateral, but instead collateral is being sucked out of the international markets. - Capital flows and credit impulse are negative (deflationary). - Fed went all out, but international money markets did not respond. Real wealth is being destroyed and there is nothing the Central Banks can do about it. Speculation: - Since Credit Cycle leads currencies/collateral, and it is turning down, debtors are withdrawing collateral from risk assets to service their debt. - High quality collateral is being sucked out from underneath the equity bubble (distribution). - Leading institutions will service debt and sell risk before monetary deflation arrives. There will be a dollar shortage and a squeeze. How does this trickle down and affect US equities? It affects the EURUSD pair, which is synonymous with risk appetite (It is an indicator not the cause). EURUSD: Where EURUSD goes, oil and tech go... and where oil and tech go, the stock market goes. Anyway, a relatively safe way to play this would be simply to long USD for the mid-long term (UUP etc.). You can try to short the bubble like me, but be ready for some pain as the timing is tricky and bubbles rise the most at the end. Keep in mind that this isn't really a trade signal but a trend. However, the day of the rugpull is indeed coming. Looking at the trend for DXY, 114-120 seems like a reasonable target. GLHF - DPT
TVC:DXYLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
11
Tuesday: US30 - Week 32Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by INotFancy
1
Monday: US30 - Week 32Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by INotFancy
1
Macro - Reading The CurveForecast for Macro: - Falling Wedge Breakout must be re-tested. - Bear Flattener coming as short-term rates rise with Fed tightening expectations: - 2x ATR spike in US02Y: - The Fed members will probably all have their turn to make comments, leaning hawkish. This should cause a rally in the US02Y. - Bonds Volatility Technically Bullish: - However, this will be followed by a steepener, respecting the Falling Wedge Breakout, as the Fed implements monetary policies to control Deflation, creating a Stagflation environment. - US30Y, this is bearish and deflationary: - USOIL, deflationary. The US economy depends on Oil: - US Manufacturing Employment Index, looks to be at the top of the range, and on a decline: - Capital goods are the heart of every economy. Without manufacturing employment, no capital goods. No capital goods, no innovation. - CN30Y, also bearish and deflationary: - China's Credit Impulse, and consequently - global credit impulse turns negative. - No more credit flows means no more liquidity to flow into risk assets. - M2V declining, if the economy was booming and growing, money velocity should be increasing: - Business destruction cannot be inflationary. Thriving tech businesses lead the recovery, but Tech is inherently deflationary. - Reading the curve will be critical to see the macro turns coming! GLHF - DPT
TVC:US05Y
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
1
Wednesday: US30 - Week 31Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USD
by INotFancy
2
Monday: US30 - Week 31Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USD
by INotFancy
9
Wednesday: US30 - Week 30Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! Looks like a short-term buy-setup, and near-term sell-setup as of now! I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USD
by INotFancy