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S&P500: First 4H Death Cross since August 14th 2023!S&P500 has formed today a Death Cross on the 4H timeframe after 8 months (August 14th 2023), turning bearish on the 1D technical outlook as well (RSI = 37.122, MACD = -81.00, ADX = 53.782) as yesterday it crossed under the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 3rd 2023. Both are technically very bearish developments and according to the last 4H Death Cross, we remain bearish until we complete at least a -5.87% decline (TP = 4,980). Observe how the symmetry among the two fractals is very strong, both the Death Cross and the 1D MA50 breakout were done around the same Fibonacci levels. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500(US500):🔴Is it Bearish...?!🔴(Details on caption)By examining the ES1! 4-hour chart (S&P), we can figure out that, the market structure is bearish, so we looking for a sell position. In that case, the price had a bearish reaction to all of the bearish Pd Array, so we can expect a bearish reaction on the balance price range (BPR). In my perspective, sell-side liquidity is a draw on liquidity. Until this sell-side is not purging I don't think about buy position. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️15/04/2024 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by VahidTradingCR
1
Trader Thoughts – defence the play of the day The markets have come alive with the sound of derisking, deleveraging, hedging and broad managing of risk exposures. Friday was about managing risk going into the weekend, but today was different and the move could have legs - where for many playing defence has been the order of the day, while we have also seen traders getting aggressive, with shorting activity in equity picking up, notably in Tesla. On a cross-asset basis, there has been migration to buy equity volatility (the VIX sits at 19.2%), while there has been a further move into the USD, CHF, and gold, although the flight to quality was not broad-based with US 10-year Treasuries +10bp. While US bond yields were already moving higher into the US retail sales report (+0.7% vs 0.4% eyed), the stronger outcome of the data set off a further sell-off in US Treasuries, with US 10-year yields pushing into 4.66%. The equity market was initially fine with the rise in yields, but as headlines rolled in that Israel had vowed a new response the sellers gained full control – it was when S&P500 futures traded through Friday’s low (5150) and then the 50-day MA (5142) that the floors lit up with more indiscriminate selling in equity. The moves were then compounded by a rush to hedge risk, with funds buying volatility, where noticeable we saw the VIX index trade through 18% and into 19.46%. On the day 1.31m VIX call options traded vs 573k puts, so traders have been positioning for higher volatility and hedging portfolios accordingly. It’s no surprise that we’ve seen a sizeable 149k VIX futures traded, again well above average – higher market volatility leads to a whole range of selling activity from systematic players, and pension funds who target levels of volatility to determine their equity allocation. In these uncertain times high volatility begets higher volatility. We’ve been left with the S&P500 tracking its highest high-low trading range since March 2023 (119 points), with price closing near the lows of the day. Plenty for the day traders to work with, and this sort of price action, with the various indices seeing a strong high-to-low trend day, will not have gone unnoticed, and to many, these are ideal trading conditions. Momentum monitor – markets on the move We see higher FX volatility playing through, with the USD ripping vs all currencies. There has been a solid unwind of carry positions, with the higher-yielding plays – BRL, COP, CLP, and ZAR – all seeing big percentage changes. The USD is king, and while overbought it is not at a stage where mean reversion players are just yet seeing a higher probability of a snapback. There are too many tailwinds for the greenback right now – haven appeal, momentum, relative interest rate settings and relative economic data trends. Pullbacks, it seems, will be shallow and well-supported. Gold has been the classic geopolitical hedge, although we could have seen an even more pronounced move and a possible upside break of $2400 if crude (+0.2%) had participated. The fact that XAUUSD rallied 1.7% despite the move in the USD, and the 5bp rise in US 10YR real rates cements gold as perhaps the primary portfolio hedge given unfolding news flow. Conversely, there is a risk that gold could find a solid sell-down should Israel refrain from escalating, but for many the headlines suggest an increase in conflict is more likely than not and gold can offer defense in the portfolio. Asia faces another tough day at the office, with the JPN225 called -1.4%, HK50 cash -1.2% and the ASX200 -0.7%. There is certainly not much in the news flow to inspire risk-taking and there is a growing list of factors to refrain from buying and to manage exposures, which of course, can see the buy side of the order book dry up, which means we get more exaggerated price moves. China gets focus, not just because it performed admirably yesterday and we watch to see if the index can outperform, but also, we get Q1 GDP (consensus +4.8%), industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Pepperstone
Aggressive rate cuts are off the tableThe SPX retreated nearly 3% from its all-time highs following last week’s print showing a higher-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024. This marks a second consecutive month of accelerating CPI in the United States, which presents an obstacle for the FED in its more than two-year-long battle against inflation. Plus, it makes it increasingly unlikely that the central bank will engage in aggressive rate cutting as is still widely expected. Not only is it improbable that the FED will ease its monetary policy during the FOMC meeting between 30th April and 1st May 2024, but the latest print puts future rate cuts in jeopardy as well. Since the start of the hiking cycle, we have believed that it will be challenging for the FED to lower rates quickly. Thus far, this opinion has been supported by elevated and sticky inflation. Furthermore, rising prices of commodities make an arguably good case for this to stay true also in the upcoming months, tying FED’s hands for a little longer. In turn, this raises the chances of the central bank constricting the economy too much, leading to an economic accident. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Yellow arrows indicate important technical developments in the past month. As the reality of no aggressive rate cuts is starting to sink in, there is a good chance that volatility will stay elevated in the near future. Illustration 1.02 The price of WTI crude oil rose nearly 20% this year. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have been playing an important role in influencing its price over the past few months. If there is a broader conflict between Israel and Iran (which is at the highest odds in the past ten years), then oil could rise in the upper range between $90 and $100, putting further pressure on inflation. Illustration 1.03 The image above shows the SPX in the ascending channel. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the upper bound of the channel. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish (stalling) *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
Resumption of the bullish momentum?The S&P 500 (US500) has made a bullish reaction off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance. Pivot: 5,117.40 1st Support: 4,956.50 1st Resistance: 5,263.47 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
US500 Will Go Up! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 5122.2. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 5315.3 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by SignalProvider
2
SPY LONG: scout for hourly higher lowBulls defended the weekly low and made a convincing breakout yesterday. This is a powerful statement, although buyers have not yet proven their control. To do that, they must first establish a weekly higher low, which is likely to happen next week (of course, we need to monitor how things develop). This presents a great opportunity for a long play, but buyers should wait for a pullback and scout for an hourly higher low. Ideally, this should occur near the previous Volume Area High (VAH). An example of the trade is shown on the chart. You can read full analysis of the market below Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
1
S&P bears attack, bulls still holdLast week was marked by the aggressiveness of sellers and the resilience of buyers. On Monday Buyers were ideally positioned for another break out but they didn’t have enough steam to accomplish it. Sellers, long awaiting their opportunity, pushed the price down, breaking the weekly support. However, they couldn’t develop this into something more significant, as the bulls returned with a firm "no". The rest of the week continued in the same tug-of-war fashion. The most confusing days were Thursday and Friday. Thursday started very bullish but ended with a dramatic bearish turn. Friday, expected to be bearish, unfolded under the bulls' control. This was a story. Now, let’s now review all the signals more formally: Bearish Signals • Confirmed downtrend on the daily chart, indicated by a lower high and lower low. • Weekly consolidation has begun. Bullish Signals • The week closed right at the previous week's low after price shaped hourly higher low • Friday’s value zone is within the value zone of the previous four days. The context remains very bullish – price is in a strong weekly uptrend, last month closed very strong. Overall, it is a very ambiguous case with neither side having a clear advantage. Buyers are exhausted, yet not willing to capitulate. Bears are attempting to play their game but lack sufficient strength. The short-term outlook is neutral. From this position market can go in any direction. We need additional signs of one side gaining an upper hand. Until then, it is not advisable to place big bets on either side. Wednesday is a very important day, with both the release of inflation data and the FOMC meeting Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
2
S&P500 Channel Down Top Sell Signal.The S&P500 index is trading inside a Channel Down. Every break over the MA50 (4h) forms its Lower High and is a sell signal. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price as it is over the MA50 (4h). Targets: 1. 5125 (expected contact with the MA50 1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is on a Rising Support, which is a Bullish Divergence in contrast with the Channel Down Lower Highs. This potentially indicates that after the MA50 test, the index may resume the long term bullish trend.. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
1
US500 Will Fall! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for US500. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 5203.9. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 5153.7 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by SignalProvider
1
SPY All eyes on the 1D MA50. Will it hold?SPY broke below the (blue) Channel Up and the only Support standing now is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This level has been holding since the November 03 2023 break-out. If it holds, a new pattern will emerge but the medium-term bullish trend will stay intact. If the 1D MA50 breaks though, we expect a bearish extension similar to August 15 2023, February 24 2023 and December 16 2022. As you can see those 1D MA50 bearish break-outs coincided with the 1D CCI breaking below the -100.00 oversold barrier. This is the level that the CCI is at today. As a result, once the 1D MA50 breaks, we expect further decline towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The shortest decline among the pull-backs mentioned above has been -5.93%. This gives us a rough estimate of 495.00. That would be the most optimal buy entry for the long-term. Our Target by the end of May will be 524.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
AMEX:SPY
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Bull Cycle intact. 100 year long Blueprint revealed!A lot of talk is being done lately on whether the S&P500 index (SPX) has maxed now that it made new All Time Highs (ATH) or it is in need of a strong correction etc. Those who have been following us for long here, know that in times like this, we like to keep a long-term perspective and give you the picture unfiltered with the facts only. Along those lines, we present you the S&P's Cycle Analysis on a century wide scale. As you can see, since the Great Depression, the stock market started to creat a pattern with clear systemic behaviors. Each time there are fundamentals involved that merely serve as 'reasons' to fill out and complete this pattern. Following the 1932 Great Depression bottom, the 1st Secular Bull Cycle begun, that lasted for 28.5 years (343 months) rising by +1888%. Then the Secular Bear Cycle started in the form of a Megaphone pattern. Its 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the 2nd Low (the Cycle's bottom) was formed below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line). The 2nd Secular Bull Cycle lasted for almost 26 years (311 months) and saw +2361% growth. As per our blueprint, the Secular Bear Cycle was initiated once the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) broke. Again the 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 and the 2nd Low below the 1M MA200. With regards to the current Cycle, which is what most are interested at naturally, notice how the 1M MA50 has been supporting since late 2011. It emphatically held both on the September 2022 Low (Inflation crisis bottom) and the March 2020 Low (COVID crash bottom). This indicates again that as long as it supports, the Secular Bull Cycle will be extended. Based on the previous Cycle-to-Cycle parameters the model suggests that the current Cycle should be a little than 23 years long (279 months, i.e. 32 month shorter than the previous) and rise by +2834% (+473% higher than the previous). This may all be speculation theoretically but trends that keep repeating themselves over the decades are not. Technically those filter out all news, fundamentals, geopolitical, macroeconomical noise and give rise to a pure behavioral perspective, the essence of traditional Economics. Are you willing to bet against this blueprint? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
8
S&P500 hit the 4H MA200 after 5 months!The S&P500 index (SPX) came extremely close to hitting the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) yesterday for the first time in 5 months (since November 02 2023)! As you realize, this is a key Support for the uptrend and the Channel Up in particular, which has been the dominant pattern these months to drive the index to High after High. The fact that the price is rebounding upon this 4H MA200 test, keeps the trend bullish. If it breaks above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again, we will continue buying and target 5350, which will be a little less than a +4.35% rise from yesterday's bottom. As you can see on the chart, rallies to Higher Highs between +4.35% and +5.00% have been the standard within this pattern. If on the other hand, the index closes a 4H candle below the 4H MA200, we will turn bearish on the break-out, first targeting the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and if also broken, extend to 5050 (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
S&P still very strong; rally goes onLast week began with bearish consolidation, which was short-lived. The bulls quickly regained control, established a daily higher low, and broke through the previous week's resistance at 524.1 . Although the breakout was not very strong, it was still meaningful. The March close was very strong, posting a +3% gain, and both weekly and daily charts are indicating an uptrend. All major sectors appear strong. The bulls have full control, and the rally is likely to continue. This week is heavily loaded with economic data releases, which might cause some volatility. However, unless there are major surprises, it should not affect our main thesis. Important level to watch is 518.4 . As long as it holds, buyers are in control Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P500: Bearish reversal to the 1D MA100.The S&P500 remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.356, MACD = 47.470, ADX = 36.597) but today is having so far the strongest bearish 1D candle since December 15th 2022. Having hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up at the start of the week, this can be a technical correction to at least the 1D MA100 if the 1D MA50 breaks. Consequently we have a short term TP = 4,980. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
1
US500 Will Go Higher From Support! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for US500. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 5200.3. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 5282.0 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by SignalProvider
2
S&P500 hit the top of 24 month Channel giving a sell signal.The S&P500 index / US500 hit the top of the Channel Up that started in August 2022. If the 1week RSU crosses under its MA trend line, we will have a sell confirmation, much like July 31st 2023 and February 20th 2023. The minimum decline has been -6.06%. Another one of this magnitude, conveniently tests the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up and more importantly the 1day MA100 (happened on all corrections). Sell and target 4970. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TheCryptagon
Potential bullish bounceS&P 500 (US500) could bounce off an overlap support at 5,189.10 which has been identified as a pivot point. Could price potentially rise toward the all-time high? Pivot: 5,189.10 Support: 5,115.50 Resistance: 5,282.06 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets