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Study/Analysis of Correlated Assets: US500, US100, and US30Greetings Traders! Study/Analysis of Correlated Assets: US500, US100, and US30 In this tutorial, we'll delve into the study and analysis of correlated assets, specifically focusing on US500, US100, and US30. Understanding the relationship between these assets helps determine whether Smart Money is accumulating orders or distributing them. Key Concepts: Symmetrical Correlation: Indicates a continuation in price. Non-Symmetrical Correlation: Indicates a reversal in price. Steps to Follow: Identify Correlation: Analyze the charts of US500, US100, and US30 to determine whether they exhibit symmetrical or non-symmetrical correlation. Symmetrical Condition: If the assets move in sync (symmetrical correlation), expect a continuation in price movement. This indicates that the trend is likely to persist. Non-Symmetrical Condition: If the assets move out of sync (non-symmetrical correlation), anticipate a potential reversal in price. This indicates that the trend might change direction. Chart Analysis: In the provided chart, we observe a non-symmetrical condition, suggesting a likely reversal. Using this concept as confluence enhances your market analysis. For instance, in the US30 chart, I am anticipating a draw towards the sell stops. By examining the correlated assets, I can confirm whether it’s safe to look for selling opportunities. If the market condition is non-symmetrical, it suggests that the assets are likely to reverse, making my sell idea high probability. Conclusion: Using the correlation between assets can provide additional confluence to your trading strategy. It helps in anticipating whether the market will reverse or continue in its current trend. Smart Money Divergence Lecture: For a deeper understanding of this concept, please follow this link to a detailed lecture on Smart Money Technique: Best Regards, The_Architect
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
1
US Indices Weekly Forecast: Top Trading Strategies Revealed!Greetings, Traders! Brief Description🖊️: Join me in this video as we analyze what to anticipate this week on the indices US500, US100, and US30. We'll delve deeper into US30 to understand today's trading opportunities. We will explore various ICT concepts, including draw on liquidity, fair valuation, order blocks, and most importantly, Smart Money Technique (SMT) and engineering liquidity, where smart money uses retail patterns such as trendlines, support, and resistance to trap traders into making investments. Things We Will Cover👀: ICT Concepts🧠: Smart Money Technique (SMT): Study and analysis of correlated assets. Draw on Liquidity💧 : Understanding how liquidity is targeted and manipulated. Fair Valuation📊 : Assessing the true value of price levels. Fair Value Gaps : How to choose high-probability FVGs. Order Blocks📦 : Identifying high-probability order blocks. Engineering Liquidity 🔄: Analyzing how smart money uses retail patterns to manipulate market movements. Trading Opportunities📉📈: Potential Price Movements: Providing a comprehensive outlook on possible market shifts. Strategies for the Week : Uncovering strategies that could make this week profitable. If you'd like to further understand how to use SMT, please follow the link below. Happy Trading, The_Architect
OANDA:US30USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
2
SPY still bullish, holding both the 1D MA50 and MA100.Last time we looked at SPY (May 01, see chart below) we gave a strong buy signal following the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) bottom and we are already well into new All Time High territory: As you can see, the price hit the top of the short-term (dotted) Channel Up and pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. This inability to break above the Channel Up, leads us to believe that it will continue to be the dominant pattern, instead of the long-term (blue) Channel Up, and will dictate the price action higher but only gradually. Another test of the 1D MA100 is possible under those conditions that will allow for a smooth hit on our 555.00 long-term Target. If however the dashed line holds, it is possible to see an even more aggressive Channel Up materializing, in which case we will move our Target even higher at 580.00, in order to represent a Bullish Leg similar to January - February 2024. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
AMEX:SPYLong
by TradingShot
1
S&P 500, US500 Market Robbery Plan To make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders, This is our master plan to Heist S & P 500 Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart. There is two plan to heist this market, Our target is Green Zone when market comes downside that is High risk Dangerous level MA act as a Dynamic Support & Order Block, So the Market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Once Bull trend is formed in the green level we can start our buy plan to heist the market in buy direction, our Target is red zone. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Loot and escape on the target 🎯 support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Thief_Trader
1
S&P500 Short-term accumulation before strong rise.The S&P500 index (SPX) has turned sideways since practically May 16 and, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), is consolidating. Even though this consolidation is taking place at the top of the 1.5 year Channel Up (Fibonacci 0.0 - 0.236 range), it is similar in some way to the accumulation of April - May 2023 (also a little like November - December 2023), which was again supported by the 1D MA50. As a result, as long as the price remains above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which provided the crucial Support on April 19 and started the recovery from the -6.65% decline, we expect a similar Channel Up to start when the accumulation ends. Our short-term Target is 5500 (top of 1.5 year Channel Up). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
S&P500: First green dayHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you! “Trade setups, not movements” 1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion) Monday DAY 1 Opening Range ✅ day 2 cycle Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week Thursday DAY 2 Friday DAY 3 Closing Range 2. SIGNAL DAY First Red Day First Green Day ✅ 3 Days Long Breakout 3 Days Short Breakout Inside Day 3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE Pump&Dump Dump&Pump ✅ Frontside ✅ Backside 4. THESIS: Long: primary, potential buy low after the news, going to stop short traders from previous week, completing the weekly dump and pump. Short: secondary, the breakout of Friday left space with no retest, means that traders long never got their positions "shake". I wouldn't exclude a third hour reversal for a scalp back into the previous HOD. Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement. Gianni
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by GianniPichichero
S&P stalls in indecision; still bullishLast week was marked with indecision. Market was moving in a narrow range while Buyers were waiting for FOMC ad NVDIA’s earnings. After receiving positive confirmation (FOMC neutral, earnings good) market tried to go higher but found no support from large players. Sellers took advantage of the weakness and dropped price, clearing many weak longs established in the previous 5 days. It was a strong move but for some reason sellers lacked conviction to go lower. Price pivoted after filling the gap from Wednesday 15th and went back into the balance zone ( 527.5-531.5 ). We should expect more pushes and pulls in the short term while market is fishing for new information. To confirm their control buyers must clear last week high ( 533 ) and build value above it. Bears’ objective is to break last week low ( 525 ). Until it happens the most likely scenario is bracketing within last week range. It is important to note that while short term direction is unclear, we are still in weekly uptrend. So bears must work twice hard to prove their strength Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
1
S&P500: Don't expect any sizeable correction any time soon.The S&P500 index is on very healthy bullish levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 63.385, MACD = 146.190, ADX = 48.596) showcasing in the best possible way the bullish bias of the long term trend and pattern, which is a Channel Up. This month's pullback is perhaps the best buy entry we can have as in relative terms based on the 1W CCI, the index is printing a consolidation phase similar to August-October 2020. As long as the 1W MA50 is in support, we expect the Channel Up to gradually rise in the same manner as then and by early 2025 possibly hit the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (TP = 6,800). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
S&P 500 (US500):🔴Bearish or bullish...?!🔴By examining the weekly and 4-hour charts, we can determine the price was heavily pushed down after creating the all-time high. I am not bearish for the long-term on the S&P500, but for now, I think the price can have a bearish reaction to the bearish breaker block and move down at least till the previous week's low, then we should study the price to find out the next move. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️27/05/2024 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by VahidTradingCR
1
Is Now the Right Time to Invest in the S&P 500?Last week, the S&P 500 index, which comprises the 500 largest U.S. companies by market capitalization, reached a new all-time high, hitting $5,341.88 during intraday trading on Thursday, May 23. Warren Buffett has long recommended an S&P 500 index fund as the ideal investment for those who don't have the time to analyze individual stocks in depth. The recent milestone seems to support his advice. However, with the stock market at a new peak, enthusiasm for AI potentially becoming excessive, and both interest rates and inflation remaining persistently high, is now truly the best time to invest in the S&P 500? For those wary of the markets, there are numerous reasons to hesitate before buying into stock market averages. The S&P 500, a market-cap weighted index, is heavily influenced by large technology companies that have seen substantial gains recently, buoyed by a bull market that began in October 2022. Several factors have propelled these tech giants to new heights: interest rates seem to have peaked, inflation has dropped from its high of 9.1% in June 2022 to just 3.4% last month, and the surge in artificial intelligence has provided significant momentum. It's not just Nvidia (NVDA 6.79%) reaching new peaks, with a staggering market cap of $2.6 trillion and a high P/E ratio of 62. Many cloud giants and related semiconductor stocks have also soared, driven by strong growth expectations. But will this growth persist indefinitely? AI investments must ultimately prove their worth to companies and consumers. Currently, companies are spending unprecedented amounts on AI chips and data centers to avoid falling behind. This situation is reminiscent of the dot-com boom in the late 1990s, which led to an epic crash in 2000. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 76.8% from peak to trough, while the S&P 500 fell by 49.1%. Could the AI bubble burst similarly? AI momentum seems unstoppable, but few predicted the 2000 crash, believing internet hypergrowth would continue indefinitely. A slowdown in growth from an AI company could trigger a significant correction. While this might not happen soon, it’s a possibility. Additionally, inflation impacts the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, which in turn affect stock valuations and the economy. If inflation remains "sticky" and exceeds expectations, the Fed might keep interest rates higher for longer to meet its 2% target. This scenario poses a risk, as the S&P 500 is currently trading at a historically high valuation of 27.6 times trailing earnings, compared to the historical average of 16.1. If interest rates and inflation surge again, it could be a precarious time to invest in this frothy market. On the flip side, renowned investor Peter Lynch famously noted, "there is always something to worry about" in the markets. Although the historical average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is significantly lower than today's, the market has generally traded at a higher P/E ratio in recent years, averaging around 22.5 over the past decade. While this is still below current levels, it is much closer. Additionally, avoiding the stock market over the past ten years due to fears of high valuations would have resulted in missing out on 236% gains, including dividends. Moreover, the average annual return of the S&P 500 from 1928 through 2023, since the Standard & Poor's index was first developed, is approximately 9.9% with dividends reinvested. Since the index expanded to 500 companies in 1957, the long-term annualized return has been an even better 10.3%. Certainly, there have been critical moments right before significant market crashes when investing would have seemed unwise. However, Ben Carlson, author of the blog A Wealth of Common Sense, highlights in his study that with a long enough time horizon, even investments made at market peaks before major crashes have yielded positive long-term results. Carlson examined hypothetical investments made just before eight of the market's worst crashes, from September 1929 to October 2007, prior to the Great Recession. Five years later, three of those investments still produced positive results. Ten years out, six of the eight investments were profitable, with three delivering triple-digit gains. Twenty years after investing at these worst possible times, all eight were profitable, with all but the September 1929 investment yielding multi-hundred-percent gains. Prudent investing, however, is not solely about one-time, large investments. By consistently saving a portion of income and dollar-cost averaging into an index fund monthly, it's inevitable to invest before some market peaks but also benefit from subsequent downturns. Market crashes are notoriously difficult, if not impossible, to predict. History shows that even investments made before the worst market peaks and crashes tend to recover over time, as the earnings of American businesses grow. Conversely, attempting to time the market can be costly, as demonstrated by those who have stayed out of the market for the past decade. Therefore, the S&P 500 still seems like a wise buy today, even at its elevated valuation, provided there is a consistent investment plan with regular monthly, quarterly, or annual allocations.
ICMARKETS:US500
by FOREXN1
1
S&P500 Buy opportunity on 4H.The S&P500 index is recovering from the last Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up, which even broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) last Thursday for the first time since May 02. The 4H MACD is forming the first Bullish Cross since that very same date, which was also a recovery sequence after a bottom on the Channel Up pattern. Having also breached into the Ichimoku Cloud and rebounded, we expect a similar short-term rally towards the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. That rally's first stop was on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our current Target is 5400 (marginally below the 1.618 Fib). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
S&P bulls are unstoppable; market reaches new highMarket closed strongly last week after reaching a new historical high. There was some sluggish consolidation on Thursday-Friday but near end of Friday trading hours, bulls put end to it by setting hourly higher low. Friday closed within Thursday’s range after a failed break-out, which is a very bullish signal. Currently, we have full alignment on all major timeframe: price is in uptrend on weekly, daily and hourly timeframes. There are absolutely no warning signs that would speak for bears. Both short- and long-term outlooks are bullish. If you're already in a long position, you're fortunate and can rest easy. If you're considering entering the market, you can either wait for another pullback or enter now with a reasonable stop-loss. FOMC minutes are coming out on Wednesday, which could cause some unexpected volatility. However, if there are no major surprises, the bullish thesis remains unchanged. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
4
Bad data is good data... but for how long?Following better-than-expected inflation print for April 2024, investors found once again an excuse for relatively bad data to be good for the market in anticipation of rate cuts, causing the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and other indices to soar to new all-time highs. However, just three or four months ago, the general expectations were for seven rate cuts in 2024, something we quickly ruled out when these assumptions emerged. After data in the first quarter revealed sticky inflation numbers, these expectations dropped dramatically to only one or two rate cuts by the year’s end. Thus, by now, it should probably be out of the question whether the Federal Reserve will continue to prioritize controlling inflation over unemployment, which has also been slowly rising. In fact, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% last month, reaching the highest level since early 2022, when excluding the same print for February 2024. Yet, while the 0.5% increase from the lows does not seem significant, historically, a 1% rise in unemployment has been typically accompanied by a recession. Therefore, even though the rate of increase is slow, unemployment is moving in a concerning direction. Besides that, U-6 unemployment is growing much faster, and there are many other discrepancies in the labor market data, which could potentially hint at a much worse state of the economy that is being reported. Illustration 1.01 The monthly graph of the unemployment rate in the United States is shown above. Another interesting detail is that retail sales remained unchanged in April 2024 from the previous month, and the yearly change amounted to 3%, while inflation rose by 3.4% during the same period. In addition to that, the United States ISM PMI contracted last month, and expansion in the United States S&P Global Composite PMI eased. Again, while these are not outright horrible developments, the economic slowdown will likely become even more apparent in the coming months as the FED keeps a tight monetary policy for longer, putting additional pressure on economic activity and exacerbating the challenges faced by various sectors and consumers. With that, the question lingers over how much longer investors will continue to interpret bad data as good in anticipation of something that is not coming and will only serve to confirm the economy is really not faring that well when it comes. Illustration 1.02 One of the challenges in the current environment is debt servicing. This fact is strongly reflected in soaring delinquencies on credit card loans, which have nearly doubled since the Federal Reserve started the hiking cycle. Technical conditions Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Monthly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXLong
by Tradersweekly
S&P500 Short-term buy opportunityThe S&P500 (SPX) index gave us an excellent bottom buy signal on May 02 (see chart below) that comfortably hit our 5200 Target: The pattern that prevailed is a Channel Up, holding since the start of the month. As long as it is supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H RSI Rectangle holds, we expect the current consolidation to give a similar 2.0 Fibonacci extension Target at 5370, such as the May 10 High. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
S&P500: Wait for the ideal level to rebuy.The S&P500 index is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.135, MACD = 2.270, ADX = 26.567) despite the fact that it made a new All Time High, in fact turning the former R level into S. The uptrend is being supported by the 4H MA50 since the May 2nd breakout and the Channel Up presents a new low risk buy opportunity close to the 4H MA100, ideally when the 4H RSI approaches the 30.000 limit. We will wait for the opportunity to go long and target the top of the Channel Up (TP = 5,400). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
US500 S&P Technical Analysis and Trade Idea Taking a comprehensive view of the US500, we observe a prevailing bullish trend, particularly evident when analyzing the monthly and weekly charts. Although there was a recent minor downturn, the daily chart exhibited bearish movements. However, the overall sentiment is optimistic once again. Notably, we’ve identified bullish price action—a decisive break in market structure on the 4-hour timeframe—which could potentially shift the 4-hour trend to bullish. In our video, we delve into trend analysis, explore price action dynamics, dissect market structure, and introduce key technical analysis concepts. Toward the video’s conclusion, we present a trade idea. It’s essential to emphasize that this information serves educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. 📈
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by fxtraderanthony
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook • Key event risks for the week ahead. • Nvidia’s Q125 earnings, a key driver of equity markets this week. • Fed speakers could move markets – Powell, Waller, and Jefferson in the spotlight. • US equity markets at all-time highs – fatigued, but well-supported. • Copper, gold, platinum, and silver are all on fire. The key event risks for traders this week We look ahead and eye the key event risk, where I would be paying particular attention to earnings from Nvidia, and speeches from Fed members Waller (he speaks 3 times this week), Jefferson and Chair Powell. We get UK, and Canadian CPI, and will keep a beady eye on the narrative out from the RBNZ meeting, which will keep rates hold but guide on the future direction of rates. We also get manufacturing and services PMIs in the US, UK, Australia, and Europe. UK CPI (due Wed at 16:00 AEST) could get the GBP moving – in either direction – with UK swaps market pricing a near 60% probability of a 25bp cut in the 20 June BoE meeting, and 55bp of cuts by December, and with core CPI expected to fall to 3.6% y/y (from 4.2%) and headline CPI eyed at 2.1% y/y, a lower-than-forecast CPI print could cement a June cut in the market eyes. For those wanting to trade GBP downside, short GBPNZD was the play last week, although, with the RBNZ meeting due on Wednesday, an extension of this trade has risk. Nvidia should beat but by how much? Q125 earnings from Nvidia could get the AI-related semis and the NAS100 firing up (or lower), and even set off moves across other markets too. When the options market prices an 8.6% move on the day of earnings, if this implied move proves to be correct, that’s a staggering $195b in market cap gained or lost in a likely 60-minute window. It would also equate to a -/+0.5% move in S&P500 futures in the after-hours session. We know Nvidia will likely beat the sell-side (investment banks) consensus estimates for revenue, EPS, and gross margins - they always do - but it’s the extent of the beat that matters. Q125 sales are eyed at $24.61b, with Q225 sales guidance expected to come in around $26.72b – one suspects they’ll need to hit us with sales of GETTEX:26B + for Q125 sales and GETTEX:29B for Q225 sales respectively, with CEO Jensen Huang with inspiring guidance to get this pumping like we saw in February. Fed speakers to watch out for The message last week from the Fed was one of patience and this message is likely what we’ll hear from Fed speakers this week as well. Chair Powell, Fed board member Waller and Vice-chair Jefferson will be the central focus here, and their views on inflation and policy could move markets, although broadly, markets feel comfortable with the current pricing of 43bp of cuts priced by December, and we see US 2yr Treasuries holding a range of 4.89% to 4.70%. Last week’s US CPI was encouraging and while this week’s US PMI data could move the dial, notably, if the services print were to surprise and pull below 50 (consensus is at 51.4) it could lift volatility and promote USD sellers. That said, it feels like the market is looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls print on 7 June as the next big piece of the macro jigsaw. US data has been missing the mark on a consistent basis since mid-April and that has led some to say the US economy is moving towards a ‘soft landing’ environment and away from a ‘no landing’ dynamic. Add in solid earnings beats and growth, a renewed belief in the ‘Fed put’ and a world with a huge appetite to sell volatility (the VIX now sits at a lowly 11.99%) - and we have the S&P500, Dow and NAS100 at all-time highs. This is a tough market for those in short positions for more than an intraday day trade, and those positioned for downside would be hoping that Nvidia disappoints in a big way. Nvidia are not a company I would typically bet against, so even though the various US indices look tired, the platform is set for further highs and pullbacks should be shallow. This is true of the HK50/CHINAH indices too, which have had another incredible week of gains. Data in China is lacking this week, so we are fully at the mercy of liquidity and flows. 20k is the near-term target for the HK50 index, but I would consider switching some of HK50 exposure towards the mainland equity markets and the CN50 index, which has broken out and outperformed HK equity on Friday. We’ll see if some of the goodwill towards China can spill over into the ASX200, which saw supply above 7850 last week – should the ASX200 kick through 7860 early I would be looking for a re-test of Thursday’s highs (7900) and even new all-time highs above 7910. Copper on fire The action continues to be in the metals complex – the space is red hot. Copper closed 4.1% higher on Friday, taking the gains for the week to 8.3%, and for the trend-followers and momentum traders, the daily chart is a thing of beauty. Many know the story on reduced copper supply, and those highly focused on the copper scene would be aware of the massive short covering seen in CME futures positioning since mid-February (-42k contracts to stand at +72k) and the widening premium of CME copper to LME copper to $1041 - but the move in copper is momentum 101 and discretionary and systematic players have had to chase. For FX traders, this move in copper remains a huge tailwind for the CLP (Chilean peso), where USDCLP has fallen 9.4% since mid-April. Market players chasing silver, platinum and gold The chase higher from various market players is also true in silver, which had its best week since August 2020, helped by a monster move of 6.5% on Friday, which took price through to the best levels since Feb 2013. Platinum has participated with an 8.8% weekly gain, while gold closed at a new closing high, and eyes the all-time intraday high of $2431.52 – a weekly close above here this week and the FOMO chase could be real. The question of exactly what is driving the gold move above $2400 is one we hear frequently. The fact we saw US real rates (i.e. US bonds adjusted for expected inflation) rise 3bp higher on Friday – typically a headwind for gold - yet gold rallied 1.6% details that there are other factors than rates driving gold flows – these include a broad base rally in metals, central bank buying, increasing Chinese gold holdings (relative to its international reserves), a hedge against ballooning government deficits; it’s all there and it seems we always have to pick a reasoning behind a move after the fact. I have little idea how anyone trades gold short-term from a purely fundamental standpoint. My view is to be a slave to price action, react, align with the short-term trend, and cut quickly when the move goes against you. Anyhow, another big week of market themes and risk to have on the radar. Good luck to all.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Pepperstone
1
S&P rally continues; will we see new high?After confirmation of control in the first days of May, bulls enjoyed their dominance. The market opened with a gap up on Monday, rallied throughout the entire week, and closed very strongly within the top value area. There was some profit-taking on Monday, but sellers were not able to push the price even below the previous day's high. At this stage, there are no major warning signs for the buyers. On the other hand, there are many signs that confirm their strength: 1. Price is in a daily uptrend, aligned with higher level context (weekly/monthly uptrend). 2. Two unfilled gaps (Friday the 3rd and Monday the 6th). 3. Strong close of the week within the top value area (price has retraced >80% of April’s bearish wave). The only technical weakness on the chart is the monthly consolidation. Bears might try to defend April’s high ( 524 ), but unless they receive support from economic reports coming this week, their position looks very vulnerable. An important level for the bulls is 515 , where the price pivoted on Wednesday after a pre-market sell-off. Important economic data will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could cause volatility in both directions. But as long as there are no major negative surprises, pullbacks are buying opportunities Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme