S&P500: Near the bottom. Recovery should start early October.S&P500 is trading on a descending channel, on a very bearish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.220, MACD = -31.420, ADX = 38.889). The 1D RSI is on the same level as the August 17th bottom of this Channel Down. This decline is approaching a Triple Support Band: the 1D MA200 and the 1W MA50 which are headed directly for the bottom of the Channel Up that started exactly a year ago.
We expect the bottom to be formed inside these two weeks and early next month to see the first signs of recovery. A Cup recovery pattern has been the common mode of rise these past 12 months, so we set a R1 target (TP = 4,600) for mid to end of November.
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Us500
S&P500 Confirmed sell as it crossed the MA100 (1d).The S&P500 index crossed today under the MA100 (1d) for the first time since March 28th.
Since October 2022, the pattern is a Channel Up and the current decline since the July 27th top still has room to fall before it hits the pattern's bottom.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 4250 (bottom of the Channel Up and potential contact with the MA200 (1d)).
Tips:
1. The bottom's of the long term Channel Up have beem formed when the RSI (1d) completed Lower Lows near or under the 30.00 level. Be ready to book the profit if you see a rebound after the RSI makes a Lower Low.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
S&P500 Ascending Triangle giving a bottom buy signal.The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us last week an accurate quick buy signal (see chart below) but then got sold-off to a new 3-week Low:
The price hit yesterday during that sell-off the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Ascending Triangle pattern that is in place since the August 04 High (which created its 4540 top/ Resistance). This is a short-term buy signal and will be confirmed if the 4H MACD completes the emerging Bullish Cross.
The immediate Resistance is the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) - 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) Zone and the short-term is the Lower Highs trend-line since the September 01 High. That will be our target, aiming at a +1.77% rise (proportionally less than the previous) at 4490.
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S&P500: Channel Down bottom and HL Support cluster. Buy?S&P500 hit today the HL trendline from the August 18th Low, while approaching the bottom of the Channel Down pattern. Despite this short term weakness, the 1D timeframe remains on neutral technicals (RSI = 46.932, MACD = 8.582, ADX = 32.119). This indicates that it may be an opportunity for sideways trading until we see a clear long term trend.
Consequently, we are buyers on this level, expecting a rebound to the top of the Channel Down and the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 4,490).
Prior idea:
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S&P500 Normal consolidation within the large Channel Up.S&P500 / US500 is highly volatile these first two weeks of September, trading sideways on a relatively wide margin, using the 1day MA50 as the pivot.
As long as the 1day MA100 supports, this is a similar consolidation that we witnessed after the market's prior bottom inside the 11 month Channel Up.
Both the 1day RSI and MACD indicate that we might be halfway through the consolidation phase.
This volatile trade is far from alarming for the long term, with the 1day MA200 conveniently placed on the Channel's bottom.
We may see the rally taking off at the end of the month. It is a good opportunity to buy and target 4770 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension as the June 16th High).
Previous chart:
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S&P500 Short-term buy within the weekly Channel Up.The S&P500 (SPX) hit today the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 06, which was before the current 5-day Channel Up pattern. So far it delivers an initial rejection, whose pull-back can extend even below the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Based on the 1H RSI though, which is posting a sequence similar to September 07 - 08, we are close to the reversal point, making it already a buy opportunity. You can confirm that after the price closes a candle above the 1H MA200. Regardless, our target is at the end of a +1.27% increase and the top of the Channel Up at 4500.
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S&P500: Formed new bottom. Expecting a rise.The S&P500 index has hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level after a 4H Golden Cross that turned the 4H technical outlook bullish (RSI = 59.782, MACD = 9.210, ADX = 36.280). As mentioned before, this is the same fractal of December 2022 to January 2023. Holding the 0.382 was key to sustaining a rise to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. We remain bullish on S&P500, targeting the current 1.236 Fibonacci (TP = 4,670).
Prior idea:
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US500 ~ Daily Swing Chart V2 (Re-Upload)Update: chart got cut off when published. Re-uploading to expand TF further out for better context of identified technical patterns.
Chart mapping/technical analysis of CAPITALCOM:US500 for developing med-long term Swing Trade strategies.
CME_MINI:ES1! SP:SPX AMEX:SPY
US500 - Inflation data aheadHi Traders,
last week the US500 did a correction as expected.
Right now price is at a interesting level for Bulls (arround July High)
Next week we have to put our eyes on the US inflation data.
On wednesday we have the Core CPI. The forcase is +0,2%
What is the core CPI?
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
On Thursday we also need to watch for PPI - which is likely a good indicator for future CPI values.
What is the PPI?
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
Wish you all good trades!
Team tegasFX
S&P500 Rising Wedge is forming a bottom. Bullish.S&P500 / US500 is trading sideways as it attempts to form a bottom on the Rising Support of the Rising Wedge pattern.
The 4hour RSI rebounded from the oversold territory as on the August 18th bottom.
Every Higher High on the Wedge's top was a Fibonacci 1.618 extension from the previous one.
Buy now and target 4598 (Resistance B), which is slightly under the next Fibonacci 1.618 extension.
Previous chart:
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S&P500 Buy signal within the Bullish Megaphone.The S&P500 index (SPX) is attempting to stage a rise after hitting the bottom of the Bullish Megaphone. This is after the formation of the Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame, the first such pattern since March 31. In addition, the 4H MACD just formed a Bullish Cross below the 0.0 level. This is a strong combination of bullish signals for the medium-term.
As long as the Higher Lows (bottom) of the Megaphone hold, we are bullish, targeting 4640 (Resistance 2). If it closes a 4H candle below the Higher Lows, we will close the buy and open a sell instead targeting the 1D MA100 (yellow trend-line) at 4375. If after an initial rebound, it gets rejected on either the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) or 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we will re-sell and target the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) at 4220.
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The relief fizzles outThis week, we saw SPX move slightly lower. In addition to that, VIX gapped up on Tuesday and continued to move higher without filling the gap. Meanwhile, the relief fizzled out in China, leading to a rollover in the stock market indices like CSI 300 and Hang Seng. Considering American and Chinese markets are highly intertwined, we raise a word of caution over more weakness in the U.S. market.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. The yellow arrow indicates an opening gap on Tuesday.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of CSI 300. The yellow arrow indicates the initial spike after the regulator’s intervention in the market about two weeks ago.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Us100 short on 2Sept using only 1 indicator BandofMidas CAPITALCOM:US100
1. CLEAR all drawings and indicators.
2. Back to basic ( draw some lines, fibo, chart pattern, simple support and resistance level etc )
3. Go to indicators > invite only script > BandofMidas
4. Observe the if the price fall in Midas zone and reverse.
5. Enter the trade if the price level is at critical support resistance level. Double confirmation is great enough.
6. Plan your trading plan, strategy, risk reward ratios.
7. Consider to breakeven if price doesn't move accordingly, to take profit at opposite Midas zone or follow the trend reversal line to change color.
8. ALWAYS plan your trades before you enter, BandofMidas is a great helping tool but it won't be absolutely accurate.
Good luck to all the traders here.
SPX500 H4 | Bullish bounce off 50% fibo?SPX500 is falling to our buy entry at 4443.2, which is an overlap support level and at the 50% fibo retracement. SPX500 could potentially bounce off the buy entry and head towards our take profit target.
Entry: 4443.2
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level and it aligns with the 50% fibo retracement.
Stop Loss: 4423.3
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support, and it is placed below the 61.8% fibo retracement.
Take Profit: 4472.8
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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S&P500: Last chance to hold this level and rise.S&P500 has turned neutral on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 46.008, MACD = 1.700, ADX = 33.340) after today's 1D candle crossed under the 1D MA50. To make matters worse, the 1D MACD is reversing and if the price doesn't rise, it will form the first Bearish Cross on such low level since June 10th 2022.
On the brightside, the 0.382 Fibonacci level is still holding, and if it continues to close candle over it, this correction will turn out to be just a minor pullback similar to January 19th. So until the bearish conditions emerge, we will be bullish, targeting the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 4,670).
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SPX500 H4 | Bullish bounce off 38.2% fibo?Price has formed a head and shoulders pattern, and we could look for an opportunity to trade the pullback of this bearish reversal. Our buy entry is at 4470.8, which is a pullback support level, aligning with the 38.2% fibo retracement. Stop loss is at 4422.7, which is placed beyond the 61.8% fibo retracement level. Take profit is at 4526.9, which is an overlap resistance level and exiting at the right shoulder of the current head and shoulders pattern.
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