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Us500

Market to suck in die-hard bulls before abrupt reversal?Finally, the SPX rebounded to the level we initially expected it to reach (outlined last Friday). This move was accompanied by a bullish reversal in RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart. To support a continuation higher, we want to see these indicators continue to develop bullish structures. However, to support a thesis that this is merely a correction of a prolonged downtrend that began in late July 2023, we would want to see RSI peak below 70 points (which is very common for downtrend corrections). In addition to that, we would like to see MACD fail to break above the midpoint. As for our stance, we continue to wait on the sidelines (for short re-entry if the situation develops as expected). However, at the moment, we still do not feel comfortable to take action. The SPX might continue higher, potentially to the level where it sucks in bulls who start predicting new all-time highs and soft landing, just before an abrupt reversal. If we were to think of such a level, it would be somewhere near $4,450 (coinciding with the breakout above the sloping resistance). Though this is, of course, only a speculation at this point. It is not warranted the market will rebound as high (especially as yesterday’s candle looks somewhat exhausted). Therefore, for minor clues, we will pay close attention to the price’s ability to hold above the 20-day SMA and Resistance 1; a failure to stay above these levels will raise our suspicion and potentially signal a loss of upside momentum. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The 20-day SMA acts as a support. If the price fails to hold above this level, it will be slightly bearish and raise our suspicion. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXLong
by Tradersweekly
8
S&P500: Bearish as long as the Megaphone holds.Bullish if brokenS&P500 hit the 4,375 target of our last signal (chart at the end) and turned neutral on the 1D technical timeframe (RSI = 54.575, MACD = -15.020, ADX = 40.128). The rise is now approaching the 1D MA50, over which the new top was formed before on the LH of the Bearish Megaphone. We will wait for the top and short, aiming at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (TP = 4,325) as it happened with the September 7th pull back. If the price crosses over the LH, we will wait to buy on the first pull back near the 1D MA50 and target July's High (TP = 4,600). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
9
GOLD → Fundamental is stronger than the technical part OANDA:XAUUSD is making a new jump. Actually, we talked about it yesterday. Geopolitics affects the interest in gold and the price of the metal. The trend resistance is broken and the price changes the local trend. Let's take a look at the D1 chart . There is a rather interesting and at the same time controversial situation, in which fundamental factors can be stronger than technical ones. The price is approaching the retest of a strong resistance line, which has 5 serious confirmations over the last year and a half, so we should wait for a fall when this line is retested. BUT! At the same time we have strong fundamental factors, on the side of which are such technical nuances as: local consolidation, resistance breakout and candlestick pattern, which hint at further growth. Also, on the D1, the price breaks the level of 1856.4 and on Monday the session closes above this area. On the local chart, the price breaks up, updates the local high and forms a retest of the range support. By the way, relative to this support, I expect the entry point forging. The price closing above one of the mentioned lines will give us a bullish potential Support levels: 1857.7, 1856,4, 1846,3 Resistance levels: 1863.7, 1877.56 In the long term I expect the growth to continue, but after a local correction. Targets are indicated on the chart. OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:SI1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
14
S&P500 Potentially made the biggest rebound of the next 12monthsWe have shown numerous times that the S&P500 (SPX) was in a 2.5 month Channel Down/ corrective move but all within the larger Channel Up pattern, which keeps the long-term trend bullish ever since the bottom recovery last October (2022). Much like that bottom which was formed by the rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), 12 months after (October 2023), the index may have just made the most important rebound for another 12-month period. What was the 1W MA200 then, is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which are about to form a Bullish Cross, the first since September 2016. In fact last week's candle hit the 1W MA100 and rebounded immediately, almost closing the body candle flat, leaving a large wick underneath it, an even stronger reversal than even the October 10 2022 1W candle. If that wasn't enough, the index hit (and as mentioned rebounded) the Former Resistance Zone of May 2022 through May 2023. In times of such transitions from a Bear to a Bull Cycle, we see the market technically testing former Resistances to make Demand Zones and turn them into Support levels. On top of that, this week the index just entered into green Ichimoku Cloud territory for the first time since September 05 2022. All this while the 1W RSI bounced off a 18 month Higher Lows trend-line. It is obvious that if this 5-level Support Zone holds, it can extend the 12-month Channel Up pattern to its next Higher High. Assuming a similar to the previous two bullish legs, +20% rise leg will take place, we expect the S&P500 to target 5000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
8
XTZUSDT → Breaking resistance, entering a new rangeBINANCE:XTZUSDT tried to break the support at 0.708 and let the price go lower, but at some point the market held the area, forming a local bottom. After a false break of support, the price breaks consolidation resistance At the moment the market is testing the possibility of transition from the consolidation phase to the phase of realization of the accumulated potential, which can be accompanied by distributive growth. The price fixing above 0.708 level will confirm the entry into the range (new corridor) and in this case Tezos/TetherUS will open for itself the way to the setup resistance. The 3-4 month accumulation in the coin can give us a pretty good medium-term potential, within which the market can hit targets such as: 0.921 and 1.259. The price is breaking MA-50 and aims to test MA-200. Support levels: 0.708, 0.633 Resistance levels: 0.742, 0.921 In the long term, I expect the bulls to consolidate the market above 0.708 and form a distribution towards 0.921 Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
10
S&P500 The 4hour MA50 supported, +4000 incoming.S&P500 / US500 opened lower today but managed to hold the 4hour MA50 as its Support and is having a big boost intra day. It is not impossible to see one final pull back under the 4hour MA50 again as on August 24th but it's confirmed that this new bullish leg of the Bearish Megaphone is in full motion. Buy and target 4440 (under the 0.786 Fibonacci and top of Megaphone). Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
5
Market uncertainty spreadsIn the previous article about SPX, we discussed how the market conditions were changing and that a prolonged period of selling could be upon us (just like in 2022). Then, on Friday, we articulated our worries that the market was reaching oversold territory in the short term, making a case for a brief rebound (up to Resistance 1 and potentially slightly below Resistance 2). Subsequently, we saw the market rise slightly and almost reach Resistance 1. But over the weekend, a war broke out in the Middle East after the terrorist organization Hamas attacked Israel, which caused the U.S. indices to drop after the futures market opened (though we still have not seen a very significant move to the upside after a month of selling, which might be one thing to consider). A further escalation of this conflict risks sending oil prices much higher, which will cause inflationary pressures around the globe (including the U.S.) As a result, this may threaten FED’s attempts to tame inflation and avoid a recession. Besides that, this conflict also risks spiraling into a broader war, with the United States getting involved (especially as media outlets report U.S. citizens among casualties or those taken hostage). That has negative implications for market forecasting visibility in the very short term. Therefore, it might be proper to get out of the market and wait on the sidelines until the picture becomes more clear again. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish (but the trend is weakening) Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
2
GOLD → Bounce off support. How long will it last?OANDA:XAUUSD forms a false breakout of support late Friday, after which the market buys out the entire decline and forms an almost bullish takeover, closing Friday above Monday's close and the entire weekly consolidation The euphoria from the NFP (negative news for the dollar), may not last that long, and after a small technical correction, the main movement may continue. There are several reasons for this. The main fundamental background for the dollar index is bullish, Powell (FED) is not going to lose momentum yet, as in every address there are always references to the rising inflation and the tight market, which they are trying to fight . By the way, there are several important news items being published this week. Worth paying attention to: PPI (Mom), FOMC Meeting Minutes GDP, Core CPI, CPI, Initial Jobless Claims The TVC:DXY is forming a correction. The previously broken resistance at 105.272 may be tested soon. Most likely from this level, based on the global fundamental background, the growth may continue, but first we need to wait for the fundamentals of the coming week and a retest of the level from a technical point of view. Regarding gold. From a technical point of view, the market has not reached the mentioned target. I am interested in the 1809 level, below which there is a huge pool of liquidity that beckons market managers. Gold, even with increased liquidity on the news, does not reach this area and reverses. Friday's candle forms the preconditions for the local growth to continue on Monday ( it is worth paying attention to the level of 1829-1830, which can be bought against ). The nearest target for local maneuver is the level of 1856. But in the medium term, I continue to wait for further decline, especially to the level of 1809 and 1800, as the US monetary policy is still tight to reduce the cost of production, so after a small pullback, the growth of the dollar and the fall of gold may continue OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:GC1! TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:US500 COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:SI1! Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RLinda
34
A Traders’ Playbook; The markets doing the work of central banksAfter a strong tightening of US financial conditions – primarily led by higher real rates and USD – we hear increasing acknowledgement that the markets are doing the heavy lifting of central banks and replacing the need for them to hike the Fed funds rate. That was the message we heard last week from Fed members Daly, Goolsbee and Bostic. This suggests that if we get a hot US CPI print this week then market players will increase exposure to yield curve steepeners trades, with reduced interest to short US 2yr Treasuries - In turn, this should limit the upside in the USD, given the near-zero correlation between the USD and the 2s v 10s Treasury curve. With a focus on the US bond market, consider the US Treasury department will be issuing $101b in 3-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries this week and that could move markets around. Technically, we are seeing that the USD appears to be consolidating, and while it comes with a hefty dose of risk, momentum accounts are again looking at the JPY shorts. NZDJPY longs look interesting for a potential breakout, especially with China coming back online, where we can see ‘green shoots’ appearing in economics. For those whose strategy thrives in higher vol regimes, then cast their eyes to LATAM FX, where outsized moves in the COP, CLP and MXN have come up on the day trader's radar. US CPI aside, it will be a central banker fest this week, where an extensive list of Fed, BoE and ECB officials will be speaking at NABE (National Association of Business Economics) and IMF conferences. It feels like the market has made up its mind that the ECB and BoE hiking cycle is over, so Fed officials could move markets more intently. We also get US Q3 earnings roll in, with the big money centres in play, and this puts the US30 index front and centre for index traders this week. For the political watchers, the process of finding a new House speaker will evolve and that could have big implications for the next shutdown negotiations from 17 November. Amid rising geopolitical concerns crude remains front of mind, and we watch the reaction for the futures open, with S&P 500 and NAS100 futures skewed modestly lower on the re-open. Marquee economic data to navigate: US CPI (12 Oct 23:30 AEDT) – arguably the marquee event risk of the week. The economist’s consensus is we see both headline and core CPI increase 0.3% MoM. This should take the year-on-year clip on headline CPI to 3.6% headline (from 3.7%), and core CPI at 4.1% (4.3%). The market’s pricing of headline CPI (in CPI fixings) is 0.25% MoM and 3.54% YoY. A 3-handle on core CPI would be welcomed news and see USD longs cover and see XAUUSD and NAS100 push higher. Above 4.3% could see pricing for the November FOMC increase to around 40% (currently 29%) and see bond yields rise, putting renewed upside into the USD. US swaps pricing per FOMC meeting US PPI inflation (11 Oct 23:30 AEDT) – final demand is expected at 0.3% MoM, with core PPI eyed at 2.3% yoy. The market is less sensitive to PPI than the CPI print, but a big beat/miss to consensus could hold implications for how economists estimate PCE inflation (due 27 Oct) China new loans (no set day this week) – While incredibly hard to forecast, the market sees a rebound in credit with new yuan loans eyed at CNY2.5t (1.35t). Above consensus numbers could see China/HK equity build on Friday’s impressive rally and see AUD & NZD outperform. China CPI/PPI inflation (13 Oct 12:30 AEDT) – The lowflation regime in China continues but should gently rise to 0.2% (from 0.1%) on consumer prices and -2.4% on producer prices. USDCNH has consolidated through China’s Golden Week holiday, but should we see a trend emerge, the direction of this cross could influence G10 pairs. China trade data (13 October no set time) – The modest improvement seen in the China economic data flow should continue with exports expected at-7.3% (from -8.8%) and imports at -6% (from -7.3%). Better-than-feared numbers could see China equity push higher. BoE credit conditions report (12 Oct 19:30 AEDT) – we get the UK monthly GDP and industrial production (both due at 17:00 AEDT) and both should remain weak. The BoE’s credit data should also be lowball, notably given what we’ve seen in recent mortgage approval numbers. Traders will be paying attention to BoE speeches this week with swaps pricing essentially pricing the BoE to have finished its hiking cycle. Mexico CPI (9 Oct 23:00 AEDT) – the market eyes headline CPI at 4.5% (from 4.64%) & core CPI at 5.75% (6.08%). The MXN finds few friends – largely due to weaker crude prices – but local data could play a greater role this week. USDMXN has found supply into 18.40, but swing traders may look at the 17.90 area to buy pullbacks for another leg higher. US Q2 earnings this week – Citi, JP Morgan (13 Oct), Bank of America, Wells Fargo, UnitedHealth This week we get the US big money centres out with earnings. The focus falls on asset quality, loan demand, net interest margins (NIM) and any commentary on the recent tightening of broad financial conditions. A focus on the US30 index When we look at the companies included in the US30, there are only two banks (of the 30 constituents) - Goldman's and JP Morgan. However, the US30 holds an incredibly high relationship with the XLF ETF (S&P financial sector ETF), with a 10-day correlation of 93%. With so many of the major financial institutions reporting, assuming this relationship holds up, the US30 should mirror the movement in the US banks. Another important risk for US30 traders this week is how the market reacts to earnings from United Health (UNH - report on 13 October). UNH commands a massive 10% weight on the US30, arguably the biggest weight on the index. UNH is not a stock that CFD traders look at as closely as a say Tesla or Nvidia, given its more defensive price action. It’s one for the range traders, where buying into $460 and shorting into $520 has worked well over the past 12 months. However, given the weighting, US30 traders should be aware of the influence the stock can offer. The market prices an implied move of 2.6% move on the day of UNHs reporting, which is in fitting with the average price change over the past 8 quarterly reporting periods. UNH has seen some large percentage moves over earnings and recall in the last earnings report the stock rallied 7.2% - so a sizeable rally/decline would influence the US30 given the weight. While macro factors such as moves in bond yields, the USD and oil prices will influence the US30, one can see that earnings this week could also play a major role – time to buy the dip, or are we about to see a leg lower in the index? Central bank speakers Fed speakers – on first blush Fed governor Christopher Waller may be the marquee speech to listen to ECB speakers – A big week of ECB speakers to navigate – EUR traders, how do you like your noise? As said, the market is fairly sure that the ECB are on hold for a lengthy period. BoE speakers – with the markets feeling the BoE wont hike further, comments from BoE officials Mann, Pill and Bailey will be closely watched to increase confidence on that pricing RBA speakers – Assistant governor Christopher Kent (11 Oct 12:00 AEDT)
TVC:US10Y
by Pepperstone
BAKEUSDT → Breaking through resistance opens up the potential BINANCE:BAKEUSDT is trying to move into the phase of realization of accumulated potential. A consolidation above the 0.1421 level will be a good starting point. If we break through the resistance of the range, we can get a gorgeous bullish potential (targets are indicated on the chart) BINANCE:BTCUSD shows good dynamics for the medium term. The price after the false breakdown of resistance does not fall and there are prerequisites for a possible strengthening of the price to 30000, which will give a great kick in the butt to altcoins if the total capitalization increases. From a fundamental point of view, the cryptocurrency is still turbulent and there is not much bullish news (strong news). But bitcoin is showing strength relative to the SP500 ( CAPITALCOM:US500 ) - and that's good for us. In terms of technical analysis BAKE: the price breaks the resistance of the annual descending wedge and we get a signal for further strengthening of the price. In the nearest future the market may test the previously broken level of 0.1421 and if the bulls successfully consolidate the position, the price may give a start towards 0.2339 and 0.2840. Moving averages indicate consolidation and show a hint of something interesting. Support levels: previously broken wedge boundary, 0.1421, 0.1161. Resistance levels: 0.1580, 0.1882, 0.2339. Since we see the breakout of the resistance of the figure, in the long term I expect the formation of the realization of the accumulated potential in the form of a bullish impulse to 0.2339, 0.2840. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
21
Prolonged period of selling ahead?Last Thursday, we highlighted a rally in the Chinese stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising as much as 3%. In addition to that, we speculated about the potential relief in SPX, with emphasis on resistance near $4,335 (which failed to be taken out). Today, we want to draw attention to Chinese stocks again. The Hang Send Index fell approximately 3% overnight, erasing last week’s attempt to move higher. Besides that, we are starting to notice gold and the U.S. dollar behaving similarly to last year during an extended period of selling pressure (when gold was moving lower with stocks and the U.S. dollar was strengthening). In our opinion, the environment is changing, and we could be in for a resumption of a prolonged selling period (potentially transposing to a market crash). We maintain the view that we have seen one of the most deceitful bear market rallies in stocks and cryptocurrencies over the past year. Interestingly, during that time, many people began to relax their stances in expectation of a soft landing. However, we have been skeptical about the FED’s ability to deliver one for a while. In fact, we have been more inclined toward a scenario with the U.S. economy sliding into recession, which continues to be the case. In the coming weeks, we will pay close attention to unemployment, which will pretty much guarantee recession if it rises another 0.6% (considering the fact that each 1% rise in unemployment coincided with a recession since the 1940s). On top of that, we will observe the situation in the real estate segment and the performance of the manufacturing and services sectors. As for technicals on the daily chart, we will watch DM+ and DM-, which we want to see diverging, with ADX rising simultaneously (suggesting a bearish trend is growing in strength). Furthermore, we will also look at RSI, MACD, and Stochastic, which we want to see pointing to the downside (their reversal to the upside will be bullish). In regard to price levels, we will pay close attention to support near $4.261 and resistance near $4,335. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
11
S&P500 Bottom of the Megaphone. Buy over the MA50 (4h).S&P500 is trading inside a Falling Megaphone pattern, having completed 20 days under the MA50 (4h). That is the buy break out signal, as it was on the previous bullish leg of the Megaphone. The price hit the MA200 (1d) and bounced. Bullish signal so far. Trading Plan: 1. Buy when the price closes over the MA50 (4h). Targets: 1. 4400 (between the 0.786 Fibonacci level and the MA200 (4h)). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is trading inside a Falling Wedge of its own. Take profit if its Falling Resistance gets hit before the 4400 target. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingBrokersView
4
S&P500: Megaphone bottom buy.The S&P500 is technically oversold on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 32.251, MACD = -54.210, ADX = 44.088) but is gathering some bullish momentum on 4H (RSI = 41.446) as the price hit the 1D MA200 and bottom of the Megaphone to form a LL. In addition, it hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level from March's low. This has high chances of evolving into a technical LH rebound, especially with the 4H RSI on a Bullish Divergence. If it holds, we are long, targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 4,375). If it fails, we will short, targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci level (TP = 4,115). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500 targeting 5800 based on this overlooked pattern?The S&P500 index / US500 is testing the Rising Support of Higher Lows this week, stemming directly from the bottom of the 2022 correction. A symmetric Support is just underneath and this pattern has various (dashed or bold) stemming from the Bear Cycle. What many may fail to see though is a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that is forming the Right Shoulder. If that's the case, then S&P can target the Fibonacci 2.0 level at 5800 as early as mid 2025! Too much to ask?? Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:SPXLong
by TheCryptagon
S&P500 It is very important that this Support Cluster holds.The S&P500 (SPX) is testing the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 12-month Channel Up pattern. It is vital for the uptrend that the following Support Cluster holds, as if broken, the next Demand/ Support Zone is seen considerably lower, in the low 3800s. Back to the Support Zone. Besides the bottom of the Channel Up, we have the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) moving parallel to that and has been unbroken since March 24. More importantly, the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) a former Resistance turned into Support after May's break-out, is marginally below the 1D MA200 and on a former Resistance Zone, which in the past 18 months, only broken twice. As long as the price closes 1D candles above this critical Support cluster, we expect a short-term (at least) rise to test the top of the Channel Down and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 4430. If the Support fails, expect a greater and perhaps quicker/ more aggressive decline towards 3830 and the former Support Zone. Notice how the 1D RSI pattern resembles the August - September 2022 correction. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
5
S&P500 Will the 1week MA50 and Fib 0.5 hold? 2008 and 2000 show The S&P500 / US500 opened yet another week on red. Last week it closed on a 3 week red streak and is approaching the 1week MA50 and MA100 as well as the Fibonacci 0.5 level. The Fib 0.5 and 1week MA50 in particular are of high importance as they are what seperated the 2022 stock market correction from the heavy Bear Cycles of 2008 and 2000. As you can see both the mortgage crisis and dotcom bubble after they crossed under the 1week MA200 and rebounded, they got rejected on the 1week MA50 / Fib 0.5 Resistance cluster and didn't give the extension that we have in 2023 so far. Often when a Resistance level breaks, the market tends to test it as a Support in order to discover demand momentum. Do you think they will hold? Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:SPX
by TheCryptagon
Things are turning ugly, but relief might be on a wayToday, we want to highlight the latest developments in the Chinese stock market, which continues to sell off relentlessly. The Hang Seng Index made a new low near HK$17,352, which translates to a loss of nearly 15% since late July 2023. The decline in the CSI 300 Index is approximately the same. As for the U.S. indices, SPX lost about 8% in the past two months, and Nasdaq 100 lost about 8.2% in the same period. Besides that, VIX has increased to the highest level since late May 2023. Overall, the situation is starting to deteriorate quickly. However, for the past nine days or so, U.S. stocks have been trending down with the Chinese stock market, which brings us to the question of a potential rebound that could be on the horizon before the market moves ultimately lower (or starts recovering); we will assess the situation as it develops. However, prolonged weakness in the Chinese stock market and economy poses a serious threat to the the U.S. market. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the potential formation of a downward-sloping channel. If the price rebounds from the lower bound, it will be bullish in the short term. However, a breakout below the bound will be bearish. The extreme price deviation from the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA suggests a retracement toward these moving averages (acting as a correction). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
18