Get started

Us500

SPX500 H4 | Bullish bounce off 50% fibo?SPX500 is falling to our buy entry at 4443.2, which is an overlap support level and at the 50% fibo retracement. SPX500 could potentially bounce off the buy entry and head towards our take profit target. Entry: 4443.2 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level and it aligns with the 50% fibo retracement. Stop Loss: 4423.3 Why we like it: There is an overlap support, and it is placed below the 61.8% fibo retracement. Take Profit: 4472.8 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
FX:SPX500Long
by VantageMarkets
S&P500: Last chance to hold this level and rise.S&P500 has turned neutral on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 46.008, MACD = 1.700, ADX = 33.340) after today's 1D candle crossed under the 1D MA50. To make matters worse, the 1D MACD is reversing and if the price doesn't rise, it will form the first Bearish Cross on such low level since June 10th 2022. On the brightside, the 0.382 Fibonacci level is still holding, and if it continues to close candle over it, this correction will turn out to be just a minor pullback similar to January 19th. So until the bearish conditions emerge, we will be bullish, targeting the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 4,670). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
3
SPX500 H4 | Bullish bounce off 38.2% fibo?Price has formed a head and shoulders pattern, and we could look for an opportunity to trade the pullback of this bearish reversal. Our buy entry is at 4470.8, which is a pullback support level, aligning with the 38.2% fibo retracement. Stop loss is at 4422.7, which is placed beyond the 61.8% fibo retracement level. Take profit is at 4526.9, which is an overlap resistance level and exiting at the right shoulder of the current head and shoulders pattern. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
1
China's relief stagnates. Before the turnaround in SPX in July 2023, we pointed out to the roll over in the Chinese stock market and its implications for the U.S. market. Then more recently, we saw how these markets continue to be intertwined when Chinese regulator stepped in and calmed down the market, resulting in both American and Chinese stocks enjoying a relief (or perhaps even reversing). However, in the past three days, we started to notice that the momentum began to decrease in the Chinese indices. Therefore, we think it would be proper to wait a little bit more time before committing to the bullish outlook. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of MACD, which hovers just slightly below the midpoint. If it breaks above this level, it will bolster the bullish case in the short term. However, the failure will be strongly bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of the Hang Seng Index. The yellow arrows indicates the past three days, with each having a lower low than the prior one. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 displays the daily chart of CSI 300. The yellow arrow highlights the initial spike in CSI 300 after the regulator’s intervention. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
13
SPX500 H4 | Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?Price is approaching our sell entry at 4537.5, which is an overlap resistance level, and slightly below the 78.6% fibo retracement level. We can expect price to react bearishly, and to reverse to the downside as there could be a head and shoulder pattern forming, indicating a reversal. Our stop loss is at 4583.4, which is an overlap resistance level. Take profit is at 4502.1, which is an overlap support level, and placed slightly above the 23.6% fibo retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
NDQ | Hidden in plain sight...This is a period of recession, a period when hands change. Last becomes first and first becomes last. Curiously, if you mix and match the main indices, you will get bored of the same shape appearing over and over again. They all appear in the same period. This stuff is hidden in plain sight... NDQ vs DJI SPX vs NYA NDQ vs RUI RUI vs NYA RUA vs DJI This one is full of small HnS. A little rough but okay. And an extra speculation: DJI vs SPX Question: Where do all these HnS lead to? Who is the final recipient? Since all these charts are comparative to one another. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:NDQ
by akikostas
6
A Traders’ Playbook; Compelling opportunity in a low vol world We come into the new trading week with several major equity indices losing steam, and with the VIX index closing at new cycle lows. Short exposures seem hard graft with volatility so low, but we have some defined levels to set risk to for those positioning for drawdown – EUSTX50 – 4350, GER40 -16,000, US500 – 4540 and NAS100 – 15,628 – an upside break though in the US equity indices and headlines of new all-time highs will likely make the front pages. The USD etched out a small gain last week, but the fortunes of the DXY reside in how EURUSD reacts at the March uptrend support and the 25 Aug pivot low (1.0765). With rates markets sensing many G10 central banks are done hiking, relative expectations of growth are pivotal in driving exchange rates. EURCHF is a classic relative play, and this cross feels like we break the downside levels of 0.9520 soon enough. I like USDCHF higher too, while GBPUSD could well be breaking support at 1.2550 soon. The AUD should get increased focus this week, although traders have a firm eye on China while managing RBA meeting risks. Commodities should be on the radar, with SpotCrude on a tear and many are questioning how long it takes for crude to test $100. I’m not going to call it, but the skew in risk is for higher levels and we’re certainly seeing a more bullish tone in the options world, with growing open interest to buy $100 Brent calls. We also see a steeper Backwardation between front-month US crude futures and March 2024 futures (TradingView code - NYMEX:CL1!-NYMEX:CLH2024 ). A steeper backwardated futures curve offers increased positive carry for market participants, making long crude exposures even more compelling. Gold bulls have been frustrated with price rejecting the 61.8 fibo of the July–August sell-off. However, this is where we can look at gold ex-USD and see some solid trends and upside momentum. For those who like momentum, put XAUAUD, XAUCHF, XAUJPY, XAUGBP, and XAUEUR on the radar. Staying in the space and I see sugar is doing everything right – I fancy this higher and into $27.30. Good luck to all. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: US Labor Day (Monday) – Should ensure a quiet start to the trading week. China (Aug) new yuan loans (no set date) – the July credit data came in at RMB345b, which was the lowest level since 2009, and contributed to weakness in Chinese markets (and China proxies like the AUD). As we assess the increased news flow on policy support, we should also see higher credit data. RBA meeting (5 Sept 14:30) – Rates pricing portrays a high conviction call for the RBA to keep rates at 4.1%. The central bank is data-dependent and on recent current data flow, they should be on hold for an extended period, although there is debate whether they could still hike in November – the Q3 CPI print would be the trigger there. The AUD will react to the statement momentarily before reverting to watching China’s news flow. With one eye on foreign economic trends, the key dates for Aussie domestic data going forward: • 12 Sept – Westpac consumer confidence/NAB business confidence. • 14 Sept – Aussie jobs • 27 Sept - Aug monthly CPI • 3 Oct - RBA meeting • 19 Oct – Aussie jobs • 25 Oct – Q3 CPI Banco Central de Chile (6 Sept 07:00 AEST) – With subdued growth and headline inflation in freefall. the debate for this meeting is whether the bank cuts rates by 75bp or 100bp. After an 11% rally through June-August, USDCLP has since been consolidating around 850 and range trading strategies are currently working well – the CLP bulls will want copper into $3.90 (200-day MA) and a higher conviction tape in Chinese equity markets. Australia Q2 GDP (6 Sept 11:30 AEST) – The market eyes GDP at 0.3% QoQ / 1.8% YoY – GDP is not a data point that typically moves markets, but a big downside surprise (QoQ growth closer to 0%) may see the headline writers increase the debate around a 2024 recession. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey testifies to Parliament (6 Sept 23:15 AEST) – Gov Baileys speech shouldn’t be market moving, especially after BoE chief economist Huw Pills speech last week has set market expectations. The UK swaps market ascribes an 88% chance of a 25bp hike from the BoE on 21 September. GBPUSD eyes the 25 Aug low of 1.2547, where a break opens a move to 1.2400. US ISM services – 7 July (00:00 AEST) – The market expects the index to fall to 52.5 (from 52.7) – hard to know if this will promote volatility as the market cherry-picks when to react to this data point. Any number below 50 could promote USD sellers. We also get the US Beige Book four hours after the US service-sector data, although I see a low risk that the Beige Book proves to be a volatility event. Bank of Canada meeting – 7 July 00:00 AEST – The market ascribes a 5% chance of a hike at this meeting, and only 6bp are priced through to January. The tone of the statement will likely be the driver of the CAD. Upside risks remain in USDCAD, with 1.3650/1.3670 targets. China trade balance – 7 Sept (no set time) – While expectations can hardly be called inspiring, the market looks for improvement, with exports eyed to fall 9.8% YoY (from -14.5% YoY in July). Imports are expected to print -9% (from -12.4% YoY). The China trade data has been a key focal point for the China economic watchers, but with fiscal stimulus now being unleashed into the economy and yet to be seen in the statistics, one questions if the market is less sensitive to the outcome this time around. RBA gov Lowe speaks (7 Sept 13:10 AEST) – It’s unlikely outgoing RBA governor Lowe will say anything which won’t be expressed in the RBA statement, and new intel is needed to change the view that the RBA are on hold for a period. A sentimental speech, but debatable if proves to be a vol event. China CPI/PPI – 9 Sept (11:30 AEST) – Will we see a second month of a decline in CPI? Given the data comes out Saturday there could be small gapping risks for China proxies (AUD & NZD) ECB speakers – see schedule below – with swaps market now pricing a 25% chance of a hike from the ECB on 14 Sept and with EURUSD testing June trend support, the various ECB speakers could be a highlight this week, with ECB President Lagarde the keynote. Fed speakers – Fed speakers in the week ahead could perhaps be less impactful than their ECB comrades - still some names to put on the risk radar.
by Pepperstone
US500 - Break or Make Zone ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📊 After successfully rebounding from the previous major low at 4340.0, the US500 has displayed an overall bullish trend over the past few days. However, it currently faces a formidable resistance level, which suggests that bearish pressure could emerge in the near future. 📉 For the bears to gain control, a break below the most recent minor low at 4487.0 is essential. 📈 Conversely, if the bulls maintain their dominance and manage to breach the 4540.0 resistance, we can anticipate further bullish momentum towards the subsequent resistance at 4600.0. Which of these scenarios is more likely to occur first, and why? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheSignalyst
4
NVIDIA topping, services slowing down, volatility still highYesterday, there were multiple notable developments in the market. First, the S&P Global Composite PMI release showed a further slowdown, dropping to 50.4 in August 2023 (marking the third consecutive month of declines); the S&P Global Services PMI printed 51, and the latest S&P Global Manufacturing PMI figure came in at 47. Earlier this year, one of the main narratives supporting the market upside was that services and employment were robust despite manufacturing already contracting. Now, the latest data suggests the services sector is also shifting toward contraction, which is hardly bullish. In fact, we can argue that it is somewhat troublesome, considering the unraveling property crisis in China (without any clarity as to what the government will do to stop it) and the latest data from Europe showing contraction in manufacturing and services sectors alike. Second, we saw earnings from NVIDIA (yesterday), which surpassed all analysts’ estimates and resulted in shares gaining more than 8% after the market close. While the corporate results were great, there is one thing we can’t ignore. It is a fact that NVIDIA rose more than 230% this year and reached the extreme near the upper bound of the trendline that connects its peaks (suggesting there is very little to no upside left for the stock). With regard to the weight of NVIDIA in SPX, if shares of the company take a dive, it will negatively impact the overall health of the index. Consequently, we remain highly vigilant and continue to pay attention to the daily chart of SPX. Stochastic and RSI turned slightly bullish; however, MACD is still within the bearish territory. Besides that, we have not seen a crash in VIX, which leaves a possibility of further downside in the U.S. stock market. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of NVDA and a simple sloping support. A breakout below the sloping support will be bearish for the stock. In fact, this setup can be utilized by placing a short entry below the support and a stop-loss order above it. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of VIX. Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates a looming bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA. If it is successful, it will bolster the bearish odds in the short and medium term. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
16
S&P500 Huge buy signal confirmedFollowing last week's buy signal (chart below) on the S&P500 index (SPX), we shift our attention on the 1W time-frame where the new long-term buy signal has just been confirmed: As you see, the price closed above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) yesterday, invalidating any bias for further decline and confirming the resuming of the long-term bullish trend within the Channel Up pattern since the October 2022 bottom. The 1W RSI rebounded exactly on its Higher Lows trend-line, giving a strong bottom signal where previous rebounds have been completed at least a +9.85% rise. As a result, we update our long-term target to 4750. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
4
NAS100 - is the skew of risk tilted for a re-test of 15,800?The current flow suggests this is the risk. On the daily chart, we see price closing above the 61.8 fibo of the July/Aug sell-off, as well as the 24 Aug highs. We see price holding above the 3-day EMA, with this ultra-ST moving average pulling above the 8-day EMA. Momentum accounts would be increasing net long positions on this move. On a micro level, Nvidia is eyeing a new high, and Apple is also showing good buying interest again and as long as those stocks, along with Microsoft, attract new buyers, then the skew of risk is that the NAS100 re-visits 15,800. Happy to cut longs upon a 3- & 8-day EMA bearish crossover, flipping to shorts on a daily close below 14,687.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
SP500 / US500Did we get a right shoulder invalidation of the possible SP500 head and shoulders patterns? It is quite early to suggest that. We need the right shoulder to prove itself and work as support to give me more conviction. As long as we stay on top of the right shoulder ~4470 I am carefully bull. If we fall back under it I'm waiting for a test of the neckline ~4340. In this situation price probably would break it and tests the big support 4195 area. As long as we stay on top of the ~4180 I am long term bull If you trade use stop losses! 1st mistake novice traders do is that they don't use them and gets their ass burned! -PalenTrade
CAPITALCOM:US500
by PalenTrade
5
SPX500 H4 | Potential Bearish reaction off 78.6% fibo?Price is approaching our sell entry at 4470.7, which is a swing high resistance level and at the 78.6% fibo projection. Our stop loss is at 4507.0, which is placed above the previous swing high resistance, and beyond the 61.8% fibo retracement and 100% fibo projection. Take profit is at 4421.4, which is an overlap support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): ** Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
S&P500:US Economic Indicators Reflect Growing Concerns Amidst...US Economic Indicators Reflect Growing Concerns Amidst Ongoing Challenges As economic indicators unfold, the US economy grapples with a myriad of challenges, leaving forex traders and market participants in a state of heightened uncertainty. The week ahead presents a series of key data releases that shed light on the current economic landscape. The latest predictions for the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 19th point to a figure of 240K, with Continuing Claims for the week ending August 12th anticipated at 1,708K. This comes after Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week were reported at 239K, and Continuing Claims for the week before at 1,716K. These figures provide insights into the ongoing dynamics of the job market, highlighting the impact of the economic challenges faced in recent weeks. A significant concern is reflected in the forecast for US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for July, which are expected to plummet by 4.0% on a monthly basis. Additionally, Durables Excluding Transportation are predicted to rise by a modest 0.2% monthly. This is in stark contrast to the strong performance observed in June, where Durable Goods Orders surged by 4.7% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation rose by 0.6%. Furthermore, Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for July are anticipated to inch up by only 0.1%, following a slightly stronger 0.2% increase in June. The energy sector also remains in focus, with US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending August 18th expected to stand at 33B cubic feet. This comes after a previous report indicated inventories of 35B cubic feet for the week ending August 11th. These indicators collectively paint a picture of an economy grappling with challenges on multiple fronts. The US economy has been plagued by disappointing data, coupled with consumer debt levels reaching record highs. Sticky core inflation and positive surprises from other countries only add to the complexity. The US Federal Reserve has acknowledged the possibility of higher rates, even if a pause wouldn't indicate a reversal. Amidst this backdrop, the threat of stagflation looms large, a possibility that the markets may be underestimating. As the forecast for the SP500 remains cautiously bearish, with consideration of the 38.2% Fibonacci levels, dynamic trendline, and support area, traders and investors find themselves at a critical juncture. Despite recent upward movement, the presence of these technical factors suggests the potential for a rebound in the nexts session, implying that the current phase might be a retracement rather than a complete reversal. The overall sentiment points toward ongoing challenges in the US equity markets, with potential implications for the foreseeable future. ✅ Please share your thoughts on S&P500 in the section below. Don't Forget to LIKE this Idea and FOLLOW me !
SP:SPX
by FOREXN1
9
A traders’ weekly playbook – moving past Summer markets We move past Jackson Hole with a slight hawkish lean from chair Jay Powell, and this adds increased empathises on US core PCE inflation and US nonfarm payrolls as the big macro event risks. It remains unlikely we get a hike from the Fed in September, but November is shaping up to be a ‘live’ event, where both data points have the potential to throw interest rate expectations around. When many other G10 central banks are already priced for an extended pause, the Fed potentially going again in November is supporting the USD. EU CPI garners interest, where a weaker print could see increased expectations the ECB go on an extended pause, with EURUSD possibly breaking trend support. China remains front and centre, as we look at PMI data, as well as headlines on fiscal support/yuan funding costs/property company solvency. It seems clear that the US exceptionalism story hasn’t gone away – the US remains the best house in the street and the USD is favoured higher. GBPUSD is breaking down, and I favour shorts here, with EURUSD to be sold on rallies or through trend support. The MXN is the powerhouse, with EURMXN biased further lower. Tactically, I like equity lower, but the set-ups and flow aren’t there at present, and I’d like the VIX index around 20% before having greater conviction on shorts. Gold remains focused on the USD and real rates, although XAUAUD and XAUJPY have been working for those wanting to take gold longs – buying any market in the perceived weakest currency can offer double bubble, although adding an FX leg to the trade can make life more problematic. The marquee event risks for traders to navigate: Month-end flows – Month-end rebalancing flows may influence price action this week, with sell-side banks suggesting these flows could support the USD. Looking forward and the seasonals, over the past 15 years, Sept is the worst month for US500, NAS100, AUS200, HK50 and gold returns. The DXY has rallied in the past 6 consecutive September’s. Let’s see if past performance is any guide this time around as we move past the US and EU/UK summer holiday period and the big hitters come back to their desks. US core PCE inflation (31 Aug 22:30 AEST) – the consensus is eyeing headline PCE inflation at 3.3% yoy (from 3%), with base effects kicking in. Core PCE is expected at 0.2% mom & 4.2% yoy (from 4.1%). We await the Aug US CPI print on 13 Sept, where expectations are we see headline CPI rise to 3.6% (from 3.2%). While expectations are low for a September Fed hike, a hike in the November meeting is priced at 62% and the PCE inflation data may affect that pricing, with the USD may be sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations. US nonfarm payrolls (1 Sept 22:30 AEST) – The consensus from economists sits at 168,000 jobs (the analyst's range sits between 230k to 120k), with the U/E rate eyed at 3.5% (unchanged). Average hourly earnings (AHE) are expected at 0.3% MoM/4.3% YoY. The 6-month payrolls average comes in at 223k and 12m average at 280k. The US 2-year Treasury is a big USD driver at present, and further moves in yield towards 5.11% would keep the USD bullish momentum going. US ISM manufacturing (2 Sept 00:00 AEST) – the consensus is we see the index at 47.0 (from 46.4). Some improvement is therefore expected, but the manufacturing index is still likely to show contraction (below 50.0 is contraction). It’s hard to know if the market will run with this manufacturing data point, as its influence on volatility is rarely consistent. US rates markets see very little chance of a hike in the Sept FOMC, but 15bp for November, and this data point will unlikely alter that with inflation and jobs taking the limelight. EU CPI (31 Aug 19:00 AEST) – The market sees EU headline inflation coming in at 5.1% (from 5.3%), core CPI eyed at 5.2% (from 5.5% in June). The market prices 9bp of hikes (a 36% probability) for the 14 Sept ECB meeting, and 18bp by December - this EU CPI print could impact this pricing. EURUSD finds buyers at trend support (drawn from the March lows), but rallies are to be sold in my opinion – with real risks EURUSD heads towards the May lows (1.0635). Aus (monthly) CPI inflation (30 Aug 11:30 AEST) – The consensus is we see the monthly inflation read come in at 5.2% (from 5.4%). While we await the Q3 CPI on the 25 Oct, a 5.2% headline CPI print will reinforce expectations that the RBA sit on their hands at the 5 Sept RBA meeting, where the market currently prices no chance of a hike from the RBA at this meeting. We also get the July retail sales report on Monday (11:30 AEST) with expectations of a 0.2% increase MoM, but I wouldn’t expect this to result in AUD volatility unless it’s a big miss/beat. AUDUSD favoured lower for a re-test of 0.6360. China Manufacturing and Services PMI (31 Aug 11:30 AEST) – The market looks for the manufacturing index at 49.1 (from 49.3), and services at 51.0 (51.5) – while transparency in the data flow is becoming more problematic for traders to price risk, this could be a key piece of data this coming week. Unless CNH forward points move higher again and traders lose positive carry in USDCNH longs, I like USDCNH higher on the week, although AUD could be a more effective play on China this week. Banxico (Mexican Central Bank) inflation report (31 Aug 04:30 AEST) – In the August policy meeting Banxico guided inflation at 4.6% in Q423 and 3.1% in 2024. Core inflation is eyed at 5% in Q4. The market prices 6 rate cuts in Mexico over the coming 12 months. Despite expectations of easing, EURMXN has been a solid momentum short of late trading to the lowest levels since 2015. The MXN remains the standout major currency in 2024. MXNJPY has gained an incredible 23.1% in 2024. Fed speakers – Barr, Bostic, Collins, Mester BoE speakers – Ben Broadbent (27 Aug 02:25 AEST) & Huw Pill speaks (31 Aug 17:15 AEST) RBA speakers – RBA gov Bullock (29 Aug 17:40 AEST) BoJ speakers – Tamura (30 Aug 11:30 AEST) and Nakamura (31 Aug 11:30 AEST)
Short
by Pepperstone
US500 Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Fibonacci StrategyFollow-up of my " US500 Short-Med Term Outlook " chart. Updates: - Removed Horizontal Lines - Upward Parallel Channel (green) captures recent Bullish movement - Demand Zone (white box) of keen interest if price action collapses - Heavy emphasis on Fib Extension (line) & Retracement (dotted) aka Fibonacci Strategy - has been doing a decent job identifying key Support/Resistance levels - Narrowed time-frame down from 4hr to 1hr for better tracking when loading new bars Chart looks 'squished' on initial view - this is by deliberate design to capture entire Fib Extension & Retracement (so far) when you're zooming in on chart. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers :) CAPITALCOM:US500 CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:ES2! SP:SPX AMEX:SPY
CAPITALCOM:US500
by BlueHatInvestor
US500 Will Move Higher! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 4463.6. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 4597.3. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by SignalProvider
10