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Relief led by a new "meme" stockIn the previous article on SPX, we highlighted how MACD was approaching the midpoint (on the daily time frame) and said that a bearish breakout below zero would likely coincide with the price dropping to the area between $4,250 and $4,350. On Friday, SPX temporarily dropped to this area and constituted a new low at $4,335.31 (following the peak in July 2023). Interestingly, that same day, there were news about China’s property giant Evergrande filing for bankruptcy in the USA, and later during the trading, U.S. indices rebounded. On Monday, the relief continued, with the tech sector posting the most significant gains (led by Nvidia, Tesla, etc.). Today, markets are slightly up again, and the main question is whether the selling is done. To get more clues about the answer to this question, we are paying close attention to RSI, Stochastic, and MACD on the daily chart. In addition, we continue to monitor the situation in the Chinese stock market, where there is still a lack of clarity on what regulators will do to stop the unraveling property crisis. To support a thesis about the short-term trend reversing back to bullish, we would like to see SPX holding above $4,400 for at least two consecutive closes. Furthermore, we would like to see Stochastic successfully continue to the upside, and RSI break the bearish structure (on the daily chart). Contrarily, to support a bearish thesis, we want to see MACD stay below the midpoint and Stochastic with RSI fail to reverse. Additionally, we do not want to see a crash in VIX because that would be bullish. We will update more thoughts on the situation with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates a looming bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA; if the crossover is successful, it will bolster the bearish case for SPX in the short and medium term. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of RSI. If RSI breaks above the resistance, it will be slightly bullish. In such a case, we will monitor the distance traveled by RSI after the breakout; the shorter the length, the higher chance of a fakeout. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
10
S&P500 Target achieved. Now looking for a rebound.The S&P500 index (SPX) hit our 4350 Sell Target that we set on last week's idea (see chart below) and immediately started a two day rebound: This rebound is taking place just above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Resistance. We've mentioned countless times that the long-term pattern is a Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom and this rebound is taking place after the 1D RSI hit the 33.30, which was the level where the March 13 bottom was priced. As a result, the current level is a strong candidate for a new long-term buy, targeting 4640 (March 29 2022 High), despite the fact that the previous two correctional waves to a Lower Low declined at least by -9.00%. The bullish confirmation will come when the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross. It just touched the top of its 9 month Support Zone. If however the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100, we will add a sell for short-term profit, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at the bottom of the Channel Up at 4220 (just above a projected -9.00% decline) and then add a second (and final) buy that will naturally target 4640 as well. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
S&P 500 H4 | Bearish reaction off 23.6% Fibo?Price is approaching our sell entry at 4401.43, which is a pullback resistance level, and at the 23.6% fibo retracement. Our stop loss is at 4449.30, which is placed slightly above the 38.2% fibo retracement and it is also a pullback resistance level. Take profit is at 4341.27, which is a multi-swing low support level. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): ** Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
S&P ⇨long-term predictionhello guys... as you can see the head of the pattern touched the flip area, this strategy is fascinating for setup! and then formed a head and shoulders pattern and broke up the neckline very well, so the target of this pattern is $4630 after that it is more probable if the price retraces to the QML and the neckline, let's see what happens. ______________________________ always do your research. If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them. And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by melikatrader94
13
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook; destination Jackson Hole The big market themes last week were trading increased China risk and a resilient US economy with higher US ‘real’ yields (TradingView - TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE ) – the result was broad USD strength and global equity weakness. GBP longs also saw tailwinds from the UK data flow, with GBPNOK the best performing major currency pair on the week – Services PMI could test GBP longs this week, although pullbacks should be shallow. US equity and index options expiry may have played a part in the equity drawdown, with dealer’s net short gamma and delta hedging through shorting S&P500 futures and single stock names. Let’s see how options dealers/market makers deal with this inventory of short positioning/hedges this week, as it may be unwanted - suggesting risk that they buy-back short S&P500 futures hedges (to close), which could cause an early relief rally in equity. Positioning will play a huge part this week and it wouldn’t take much to see US real rates a touch lower, with the USD following in its wake. As the new trading week cranks up, news flow on China will drive and should the HK50 and CNH find further selling interest, then I’d be aligned, with a bias to look at short GER40 trades. The China property sector remains the elephant in the room, with the market finding little tangible fiscal support to reprice risk higher – the price action in the HK50 reflects that, with rallies quickly sold into. It’s time for Chinese authorities to step it up. We get PMI data out throughout the week, but as the week rolls on the attention should turn to Jackson Hole, where Jay Powell takes centre stage. While this forum has been the setting for some bold changes to monetary policy in years gone by, it doesn’t feel like this time around we’ll be treated to such action. The USD remains front and centre this week – biased long, I acknowledge positioning is rich and could easily be vulnerable to profit taking into Powell’s speech. The marquee data to navigate: • China loan prime rate decision (21 Aug 11:15 AEST) – after the PBoC surprised the market and eased the Medium-Lending Facility last week, we should see the PBoC ease the 1- and 5-year Prime lending rate by 15bp respectively. Unless we see the Prime Rate left unchanged, Chinese equity markets will likely overlook any policy easing here and funds should continue to shy away from HK50, CHINAH, and CN50 longs. USDCNH finds support below 7.3000, but few are buying yuan with conviction other than to cover yuan shorts. • Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 1800 AEST) – the market eyes the manufacturing index at 42.6 (from 42.7) and services at 50.5 (50.9). A weaker services PMI, especially if the data prints below 50 (the expansion/contraction line) and we could see better EUR sellers, with the GER40 eyeing a break of the July lows of 15,500. Tactically warming to EURCAD shorts. • UK manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 18:30 AEST) – the market looks for manufacturing to come in at 45 (45.3) and services at 50.8 (51.5). GBP – the best performing major currency last week - could be sensitive to the services print. • US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 2345 AEST) – with much focus on China’s markets, US real rates and Jackson Hole, there is less concern about US growth metrics. As a result, the outcome of this may have a limited impact on the USD – it is still a risk to have on the radar. Jackson Hole Symposium – Fed chair Jay Powell will be the highlight of the conference (speaks Sat 00:05 AEST) – again, it’s still premature for Powell to declare victory in the Fed’s inflation fight and will likely emphasise there is still more work to be done. He may also spend time exploring a higher for longer mantra (for interest rates), with a focus on where they are modelling the neutral fed funds rate; possibly one for the PhDs and academics. Powell should re-affirm his view that rate cuts are not in their immediate thinking. From a risk management perspective, I am sensing Jackson Hole/Powell’s speech to be tilted on the hawkish side, and therefore modestly USD positive. Although given the bull run in the USD one could argue a hawkish Powell is largely priced. Other Jackson Hole speakers: • Fed members Goolsbee and Bowman (23 Aug 05:30 AEST) • Fed member Harker (25 Aug 23:00 AEST) • ECB president Lagarde (26 Aug 05:00 AEST) BRICS Summit in South Africa (Tuesday and Wednesday) – It’s hard to see this as market moving and a risk event for broad markets. However, with BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) accounting for 32% of global GDP and some 23 countries wanting to join the union, there will be increased focus on their expansion plans. Some have linked the BRICS to an acceleration of global de-dollarization, and while a global reliance on the USD will likely fall over time, the movement is glacial. A common currency for this union – while possibly getting headlines at this summit - is not something that seems viable anytime soon. Key corporate earnings: US - Nvidia report earnings (aftermarket) – many will recall the 24% rally in the share price in Q1 earnings (in May) and hope for something similar. Given the incredible run and heavy positioning, it may need something truly inspiring to blow the lights out. The market prices an implied move on earnings is 10.2%, so one for those who like a bit of movement in their trading. Australia – 68 ASX200 co’s report, including – BHP, Woodside Petroleum, Qantas, Northern Star and Wesfarmers
TVC:US10Y
by Pepperstone
15
Volatility stays elevated amid rising uncertaintyIt has been about twenty days since SPX marked a high near $4,607. Back then, we highlighted the importance of watching the Chinese stock market in order to get more clues about what could be waiting for the U.S. indices (specifically, we mentioned a rollover in the Chinese stocks and the spillover effect). Since then, SPX drifted slightly lower, approximately 3.7%. Meanwhile, Chinese indices dropped significantly more. In particular, Hang Seng Index erased more than 10%, and Shanghai Composite Index lost about 5%. While all these figures are not yet all doom and gloom, the weakness in the global markets should not be overlooked easily, especially as we are still seeing the situation in China unravel. Therefore, we are paying close attention to technical indicators like MACD, Stochastic, and RSI on a daily time frame. All three indicators are in a bearish constellation, with MACD approaching the midpoint. If it breaks below zero, it will greatly bolster the bearish case for SPX in the short term. In such a scenario, we would expect SPX to continue falling to the area between $4,250 and $4,350. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Interestingly, the volatility index is staying elevated. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
3
Breaking down into OPEX We head into monthly options expiry (OPEX) on Friday and that may influence flows and price action in the US500, but for now, the equity bears are starting to get some traction. We saw the bulls try and take price above Monday’s high (4493) but they failed and the index closed not just below the range lows, but through the 50-day MA. Outright shorts remain challenged as implied vol is still so low (the VIX sits at 16.46%) and China could easily bounce (such is the extreme negative sentiment), but traders are betting on downside and the index looks likely to test 4385 in the near term.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Pepperstone
Does weakness in Chinese stocks spell trouble for the U.S. ones?A while ago, we drew attention to the intriguing correlation between the Chinese and U.S. stock markets. In fact, we presumed that if the Chinese economy and stock market were doing well (following the reopening after Covid-19), it would be inherently positive for the U.S. stock market and could postpone a recession to later. From around October 2022, both indices were rising in tandem. However, in March 2023, the positive correlation between the two started to weaken, and the U.S. stock market kept rising while Chinese stocks began to move increasingly sideways, finding resistance above 20,000 HKD. We find this development interesting as specific U.S. stock titles are reaching highly overbought levels, and the general theme in the media continues to be that of “soft landing” and that we have nothing to worry about. Seemingly everyone seems to forget that regional banks started to implode in 1Q23, and without the FED stepping in and providing more liquidity to the market, the situation would have been much worse. Then, on top of that, the FED keeps hiking into a slowing economy with many subtle signs of a recession already presenting themselves. We believe that if the Chinese stock market continues to roll over, then it can potentially lead to the spillover effect. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the correlation between the SPX and HSI (Hang Seng Index). It can be easily observed that both indices trended down from October 2021 until October 2022. After that, both indices trended together to the upside until late March 2023, when SPX kept increasing, but HSI began finding resistance above 20,000 HKD. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of HSI and the resistance area. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
51
S&P500 On the 1D MA50 after 3 months. Will it hold?Last week we gave a sell continuation signal on the S&P500 index (SPX) after the price failed to break above the short-term Resistance of 4H MA50 (see chart below): As the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last Thursday for the first time in 3 months, the index found its first long-term Support level. Along with being near the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of Channel Up 2 (dotted pattern within the multi-month Channel Up 1), we can attempt the first buy position again and target 4640 (March 29 2022 High). This is a similar situation as May 24 and May 04 (blue circles). If a 1D candle closes below it though, we will be quick to take the loss and sell the break-out towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 4350. That is the second long-term Support level, which if broken opens the way for the final one, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The most optimal long-term buy entry will be if the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross within the 2023 Support Zone. Potentially that could be near the 1D MA200 and the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of Channel Up 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
3
$SPX500USD US500 Continue to Build Upward PressureOANDA:SPX500USD We will have choppy times ahead. Target 4600 Above 4600 Vey Low Volume The sentiment is positive 4060 is support Technically Higher Highs Lower Lows We are slowly leaving the current ange The ranges are increasing The S&P 500 has rallied rather significantly during the course of the week to break above the 4200 level, showing signs of extreme strength. At this point, the market looks as if it is going to threaten the 4300 level above, an area that has previously been resistance. We have seen a lot of noise over the last several months, but the resiliency of the market is something that you have to pay attention to. As long as the market stays this resilient, it will be difficult to short anytime soon. The candlestick seems as if it is trying to tell us that the market has made up its mind finally, and that it decided that it’s going higher. If we can break above the 4300 level, then this becomes more of a “buy-and-hold” situation, but you can see that the gains have been hard won. With that, I think you get a situation where you are probably better off looking for short-term dips that you can take advantage of, as they offer value in what is becoming a very aggressive uptrend. That being said, if we were to turn around a break down below the 50-Week EMA could send the market lower, perhaps back down to the 4000 level, and even down to the 200-Week EMA which is currently near the 3770 level. However, it’s probably worth noting that momentum is definitely not on your side if you are going to take this position, and therefore you are probably better off looking for a move to the upside but expecting a lot of volatility. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 is not equally weighted, so it’s just a handful of stocks that make the difference.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by DaveBrascoFX
4
A Traders’ Playbook – backing a horse called Dollar The USD reigned supreme in G10 FX last week, and unless we see a far better feel towards China this week then I see the probability skewed for further USD gains. USDCNH remains central to the positive USD bias, and despite the best efforts of the PBoC to push back on the yuan weakness the daily chart is a thing of beauty – perhaps the better way to think about price is to question how high USDCNH would be if the PBoC hadn’t been ‘fixing’ the yuan at stronger levels each day, and Chinese state banks weren’t selling USDs. With the China proxies in the doghouse, we see NZD and AUD finding few friends, although we may see a few lightening up on shorts into the RBNZ meeting. I stay biased long EURAUD, although understand sentiment towards China is shot to pieces -this week's high-frequency China data may only need a small beat to cause a strong upside reaction in China proxies. USDJPY eyes a retest of the 145.07 highs and the manner by which US Treasuries are trading, both on a nominal and real basis, it's hard to fade the upside in USDJPY, although we may run into JPY intervention headlines this coming week. With a focus on bond markets, it's hard to go past moves in the UK bond market, where the 10yr gilt is above 4.5% and eyeing recent highs of 4.71%. We see 2- and 5-year UK gilt yields moving higher vs US Treasuries, and this is offering some support to the GBP. We continue to watch this dynamic with UK wages and CPI due this week. The preference remains to cast the net towards the crosses, where GBPAUD, GBPNZD or GBPJPY have been solid plays and will need to big downside UK core CPI print to halt the bullish trends. With China joining the UK as a central focus this week, we see big underperformance in the HK50, CHINAH and CN50. With China new yuan loans printing a 14-year low last week and renewed concerns on property developers, the Chinese authorities need to get in front of economics and sentiment. The market wants bold action, and anything less will attract sellers. I like the CHINAH index into 6200, but realise sentiment is shot and we also have Tencent reporting this week. Elsewhere, given views on US real rates, the USD as well as the general flow, I stay negative on gold and silver, but see modest upside risks in energy. We watch price action in broad large-cap tech and the A.I plays where we’re seeing dicey moves and real vulnerability emerge, and this could be a big theme that has to be on all trader's radars. The mega-cap tech/AI trade is one crowded position that if even modestly unwound could have big ramifications for risk. The 50-day MA on the US500 (4448) needs to hold this week, and a close below this average may hold big implications for market structure. While monthly options expiry could be price action, we watch to see if we see a move higher in volatility and our trading environment. The Risk Manager; navigating the marquee data/central bank meetings • China high-frequency economic data (all due 15 Aug 12:00 AEST) – After the recent weak trade and credit data, and a big push higher in USDCNH, we watch the monthly high-frequency economic data. Here, the market looks for industrial production to grow at 4.3% YoY, retail sales at 4.2% YoY and fixed asset investment at 3.8% YoY. The market is craving stimulus on both a fiscal level, backed by new monetary policy easing. Will bad economic data result in upside for Chinese equities, as it accelerates the need for stimulus? I am not so sure, but the cleaner trade remains USDCNH upside, where weakness in the yuan should in turn weigh on the AUD. • Australia Q2 Wage Price Index (15 Aug 11:30 AEST) – the market looks for wages to grow at 0.9% QoQ, and 3.7% YoY (unchanged from Q1) – unless we get a YoY WPI print above 4% YoY, the data shouldn’t alter Aussie rates pricing to intently where the market prices 15bp (or a 59% chance) of hikes by December. • UK employment and weekly earnings (ex-bonus) report (15 Aug 16:00 AEST) – the market expects wages to push to 7.4% (from 7.3%), with the UK unemployment rate eyed at 4%. The GBP was a relative outperformer last week in G10 FX, notably vs JPY and NZD – so GBP longs will look for big wage print this week, which would confirm expectations of a 25bp hike from the BoE on 21 September and lift peak rate expectations towards 6%. • US retail sales (15 Aug 22:30 AEST) - the market looks for sales to grow 0.4% with the ‘control group’, the basket of sales that feeds more directly into the Q3 GDP calculation, eyed at 0.5%. • Canada CPI inflation (15 Aug 22:30 AEST) – the market prices 5bp of hikes for the next BoC meeting (6 Sep), so the CPI report could alter that pricing resulting in increased CAD volatility. Here, the market sees headline CPI coming in at 3% YoY (from 2.8%) or 0.3% MoM. Core CPI is eyed at 3.7% (3.9 yoy). It may take a 4-handle on core CPI to see the September meeting as a ‘live’ event. • China new home prices (16 Aug 11:30) – with the Chinese property market in focus, as well as property developers and if we are to see a credit event, new home sales could get the headlines and move Chinese assets. • RBNZ meeting (16 Aug 12:00 AEST) – the market is firmly of the view that RBNZ keep rates unchanged at 5.5%, and we see only 6bp of hikes priced for the remainder of 2023. It seems unlikely the NZD will move too intently on the RBNZ statement and may revert quickly to following moves in the yuan and China equity markets. • UK July CPI (16 Aug 16:00 AEST) – coming after last week’s hotter UK Q2 GDP print, and Tuesday’s UK labour report, the market expects headlines inflation to drop to 6.8% YoY (from 7.9%). However, core CPI is likely to remain frustrating sticky also at 6.8% (from 6.9%). Unless core inflation falls markedly, then a 25bp hike in Sept is all but assured. • July FOMC meeting minutes (17 Aug 04:00 AEST) – the Fed have moved to a firm data-dependent approach, so the minutes may not offer any surprising insights. The market is waiting for new data, where they can potentially revisit low expectations of a hike in the November FOMC meeting, which is currently priced at a 33% chance. • Australia July employment report (17 Aug 11:30 AEST) – the usual monthly labour market lottery – the consensus is we see 15k net jobs being added, with the unemployment rate eyed at 3.6% - again, it’s hard to see the data altering rate expectations too intently and unless we get a big beat/miss shouldn’t see any lasting move in the AUD. On the day, I would be fading extreme moves intraday through buy/sell limit orders in AUD. • Norges central bank meeting (17 Aug 18:00 AEST) – The Norwegian central bank should almost certainly hike by 25bp to 4%. The NOK takes its cues from energy markets, although the 20-day rolling correlation between Brent crude and the NOK is not overly impressive at 56%. The NOK was the weakest G10 currency last week, so unless we get a great surprise from the Norges Bank, we should see the NOK revert to watching crude, Nat Gas and being a high beta risk proxy. • Japan July CPI (18 Aug 09:30 AEST) – with the market establishing JPY shorts as the preferred funding currency for carry exposures, we question if the JP national CPI print really matters given the JPY’s lack of cyclical qualities. We shall see, but the market looks for headline CPI at 3.3% and core at 4.3% (4.2%). With USDJPY eyeing a retest of the 30 June highs of 145.07, and the trade-weighted JPY breaking to new lows, the market may be looking out more intently for JPY intervention headlines. Stocks to watch; earnings front of mind: • HK – Tencent (report on 16 Aug) – with a market cap of HK$3.21t, Tencent has easily the biggest weight and influence on the HK50. The implied move for earnings is 2.7%, so it could get lively. • US – we get the retail names due this week with Home Depot (15 Aug), Target (16 Aug), and Walmart (17 Aug) offering insights into consumer trends. • Australia – 52 ASX200 companies report numbers this week – including, JBH (14 Aug), CSL (15 Aug), COH (15 Aug)
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
VIX is not dropping yet, more panic is possibleSince our last update, the SPX has largely remained below the resistance near $4,527. Concurrently, the VIX has not shown a notable decrease, hinting at the possibility of more market panic and weakness in the SPX. That, combined with the fact that Chinese stocks continue to roll over, leaves us on high alert, and we are growing increasingly bearish in the short term. To bolster the bearish odds, we want to see the SPX break below the support near $4,458. Furthermore, we would like to see another spike in VIX. Contrarily, to support a bullish thesis, we would like to see SPX move above the resistance at $4,527 and hold there (ideally, being accompanied by a drop in VIX below $14.30). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
13
US500 Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear subscribers , This is my opinion on the US500 next move: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 4467.9 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Goal - 4441.2 My Stop Loss - 4483.2 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by AnabelSignals
3