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A trader’s playbook: can a USD in motion remain in motion?It was a huge week for USD traders and the USD remains the central focus of clients and wider market participants this week. US data is lighter on the ground and with the Fed in its blackout period, we are in cruise control into next week’s FOMC meeting, where a 25bp hike is an almost done deal. Will this hike prove to be the last in the cycle? The market is certainly feeling higher conviction that US inflation is trending in the right direction, and the moves in forward interest rates markets, to revisit price cuts in 2024, were the key reasoning why the USD has been so heavily sold. We can look at the SOFR interest rate market and see on Thursday that an aggressive -160bp of cuts were priced for 2024, although this has come back on Friday closing at -148bp. The USD and gold are moving closely to these expectations and the degree of easing from the Fed from March 2024. The FX market is front running possible normalisation of Fed policy in 2024, and this is lifting risky assets and high beta FX (NOK and SEK especially). The question then is whether the USD sell-off has gone too far and we are at risk of mean reversion early this week – the upside in the USD will likely see equity markets finding better sellers, which all saw big gains last week. US and Asia corporate earnings roll in this week, with SAP also getting a focus for GER40 traders, and in a quiet data week earnings may play an influence. There is also a focus on the special rebalance of the NASDAQ, which aims to reduce concentration risks (www.axios.com) We start the week on a quiet tone with Japan offline for Marine Day and the potential for HK markets to close as tropical storm Talim is upgraded to a no. 8 typhoon signal. As the week rolls on though one of the key topics of conversation is whether the BoJ alter its YCC policy at the BoJ meeting on 28 July – recent press suggests moving the 10yr JGB (Japan govt bond) cap (currently set at -/+0.50%) set by its YCC program is a real possibility. Should they move it to 0.75% or even 1% it could have big implications for the JGB market and by extension the JPY. We’re coming off a big week for the US rates market and the USD is moving very closely in alignment to this pricing – the market sees the Fed cutting before other DM central banks and by a greater degree. This is something the market is very keen to explore and could have far-reaching implications for the USD into Q3 and certainly Q423. Rearview alpha plays - what worked best last week: • G10 and EM FX play of last week: Short USDSEK (-5.4% WoW), short USDHUF (-4.9% WoW) • Equity index plays - long FRA40 (+3.6% WoW), long AUS200 (+3.4% WoW), long NAS100 (+3.4% WoW) • Commodity plays – Long Copper (+3.9% WoW), Long XAGUSD (+8% WoW) • Equity plays for the radar – Tesla (report earnings after market Wednesday) – the implied move (on the day of earnings) is 3.5%. The stock is looking for direction with the bias defined by a break of $284.25 or $265.10. Netflix report earnings at 6 am AEST on Thursday, with the market seeing an implied move of 4%. • Crypto plays: Long XRP (+53.4% WoW) Marquee event risk for the week ahead: • US 2Q earnings – in the week ahead we receive earnings from 11% of the S&P500 market cap. Trader favourites include Bank of America, IBM, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, Tesla, and AMEX. • For GER40 traders, do consider that SAP SE report Q2 23 earnings on 21 July (aftermarket) – SAP holds a 9.4% weighting on the GER40, making it the biggest index weight, and therefore any outsized moves in SAP could influence the index - Can we see SAP break above E130 and to the highest levels since Oct 2020? • UK CPI inflation (Wed 16:00 AEST) – The market expects UK core CPI to remain at 7.1%, while headline inflation is expected to fall to 8.2% (from 8.7%). The last 4 UK core CPI prints have come in well above expectations. With the market pricing 45bp of hikes from the BoE at the 3 Aug meeting, we’d need to see a huge downside surprise (in core CPI) to lower expectations that the BoE will hike by a further 50bp. • Australia (June) employment report- (Thurs 11:30 AEST) – the median expectation is that 15k net jobs were created in June, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.6%. While we look ahead at next week’s Aus Q2 CPI, the jobs report could influence expectations of RBA action on 1 August, which is priced at a 36% chance of a 25bp hike. • Japan CPI inflation – the market sees JP headline inflation rising to 3.3% (from 3.2%), while core is eyed at 4.2% (4.3%) – with the market debating whether the BoJ alters its Yield Curve Control (YCC) program at the 28 July BoJ meeting, this data could influence that debate and potentially result in further pronounced moves in the JPY. • China Q2 GDP (Mon 12:00 AEST) – expectations are for a rebound in GDP to 7.1% YoY (from 4.5% YoY). At the same time, we also get China’s industrial production (consensus at 2.5%), retail sales (3.3%) and fixed asset investment (3.4% YoY). Watch price action in CHINAH, copper, USDCNH and the AUD over this data. • US retail sales (Tue 22:30 AEST) – it’s a quiet week for US economic data with US retail sales and various housing data points among the highlights – the market eyes 0.5% MoM retail sales growth. • EU CPI (Wed 19:00 AEST) – the central case is for core inflation to remain at 5.4%, while headline CPI is expected to fall to 5.5% (from 6.1%). A 25bp hike at the next ECB meeting is a near certainty, but a lower inflation print may see longer-term expectations fall. • Canada CPI inflation (Tues 22:30 AEST) – the market sees headline CPI at 3% (from 3.4%), and the core median at 3.7% (3.9%). The next BoC meeting isn’t until 6 September, so this CPI print may fail to move the CAD too intently. • NZ CPI inflation (Wed 08:45 AEST) – The market sees NZ inflation running at 5.9% YoY (from 6.7%), and 0.9% QoQ – One for the NZD traders, but unless we get a blowout number the RBNZ should hold rates steady at the next meeting on 16 Aug. • South Africa central bank (SARB) meeting (Thurs - no set time) – One for those running USDZAR exposures, but the prospect of a 25bp hike to 8.5% seems likely. • Turkey central bank (CBT) meeting (Thurs 21:30 AEST) – the market expects the CBT to hike the one-week repo rate to 18.25% (from 15%) – eyes on your USDTRY exposures. Fed speakers – With the Fed entering its blackout period, we see no Fed speakers until the FOMC next week. ECB speakers – Lagarde, Lane, Vasle, Elderson, Vujcic, Villeroy BoE speakers – Ramsden RBA speakers – no individual speakers – RBA July meeting minutes (Tues 11:30 AEST)
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
SP500 Black Swan Event Incoming!Following on from our alternative account which has now become our primary count we have cleaned up the chart and think we are very close to the top of this B wave, as retail traders and the media are turning bullish on the stock markets we think it's a matter of time before the rug is swept out from under the bulls feet and we come crashing down to our target of 3200. A 1300 point move from current prices! What could spark such a sharp move? China invading Taiwan? Inflation staying stickier than analysts expect? Moving into a negative growth environment? There are plenty of things that could spark this move, what it will be is anyones guess. All we know is if our analysis is correct this move will be very sharp and catch a lot of people off guard.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RAA_Trading
1
US100 and US500 Possible Counter Trend Trade OpportunityIn this video, we examine the stock indices and observe that they are approaching key resistance levels on the higher time frames (1M, 1W, 1D etc). We can observe weakness in the GE40 and FTSE, raising the question of whether the US100 and US500 will follow suit. Considering it's the end of the week, a correction is a possibility. As always, please note that everything discussed in the video is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice.
CAPITALCOM:UK100
by tradingwithanthony
Earnings season beginsMany of you know that we have been skeptical about the rally in the stock market over the past year. In fact, we called it a bear market rally and touted a decline toward $3,400 once it ran out of steam. Our thesis for this thinking was that unemployment would start picking up, corporate earnings would decline, and interest rates would lead to cracks in the economy. While we began to see cracks in the banking sector at the end of 1Q23, we did not see much follow-through with the rising unemployment and falling corporate profits. After the FED pumped liquidity into the market as a response to the regional bank crisis, we noted that these developments would likely get postponed further into the future. Now, with another earnings season looming over us, we can finally get more insight into what is going on in the underlying economy. If there is an improvement in earnings and future outlook, it will increase the odds of a shallow recession, likely proving our thesis about a heavy correction toward $3,400 wrong (especially if the market continues higher from the current level). As a result, we will pay close attention to the banking sector, which is reporting its earnings first. Among some of the important subjects of our interest will be credit issuance, delinquencies on debt, and deposits. Regarding most recent developments, SPX broke above the resistance near $4,456 yesterday, which is bullish. If SPX breaks above $4,500, it will further bolster the bullish case in the short-term. The same applies to the rising RSI if it breaks above 70 points. In such a scenario, we would expect SPX to rise somewhere between $4,550 and $4,600. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish (with RSI and MACD showing divergence with the price) Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
12
S&P500: Targeting 4,570 but may take a while.S&P500 made a new yearly High today after the U.S. CPI report and solidified the 1D bullish technicals (RSI = 66.131, MACD = 48.400, ADX = 25.681). The MACD indicator if it makes a bearish cross, it will form a similar pattern to the start of May where it turned the index into a 2 week consolidation before making a new High. We will wait for a pullback near the 1D MA100 before buying or will make a breakout buy if the price crosses over the R1. In either occassion, we will target near the top of the four month Channel Up (TP = 4,570). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
2
Double-top on SPX?The previous week was filled with numerous data disclosures that provided deeper insights into the U.S. economy. Most notably, we saw the first month-over-month decline of the S&P Global Services PMI in 2023 (negatively affecting the S&P Global Composite PMI), a continuation of contraction in the manufacturing sector, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate (from 3.7% in May 2023 to 3.6% in June 2023). Overall, the data has not proved recessionary yet. But with services slowing down, it would be appropriate to stay cautious and wait for more data to reveal underlying trends in the economy. In our opinion, the current valuations for stocks seem overstretched (especially in the tech sector), and the replacement of fear and calls for a recession by the narrative dismissive of any danger to the U.S. economy could lead to a volatile concoction in the stock market. As a result, we are monitoring multiple technical indicators on a daily time frame, including RSI, MACD, and Stochastic. All three of these indicators show divergence with the price and point to the downside, which is not particularly bullish. In addition to that, SPX appears to be forming a double top, giving rise to an interesting setup if the pattern becomes valid. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the mentioned setup. The bearish trigger becomes activated once the price breaks below Support 1. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows nearly the perfect harmony between the decline from January 2022 until October 2022 and the rise from October 2022 until July 2022. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish (with signs of weakness) Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
27
S&P500 Short and medium term sell potentialS&P500 (SPX) made a yearly High last week and a Higher High on the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom and guided the market out of the 2022 Bear Cycle. This Higher High opens up two sell possibilities one on the short and one on the medium term. The short term indicates that a Megaphone pattern similar to April 04 - May 04 is emerging that targets the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as part of its Lower Low. That would also test the Internal Higher Lows trend-line, so it makes sense to short and target 4320. This is where we will attempt a medium-term buy targeting 4640 (March 29 2022 High) but will only hold it as long as candles keep closing above the 1D MA50. If even one 1D candle closes below, it will activate the medium-term sell possibility and we will sell targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as well at 4150, similar to December 22 2022. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
5
S&P500 Will attempt to find Support near the 1day MA50S&P500 is so far on a flat 1day candle after a series of 3 red. That keeps the price inside a Channel Up since March 13th and of course inside the longer term Channel Up since the October 13th market bottom. The index should seek support on the 1day MA50 as it has done since March 30th, so that's a short term sell opportunity to 4330. Consequently that will be the new Higher Low (bottom) on the Rising Support of the narrow Channel Up, hence a buy opportunity targeting Resistance A at 4500. If the 1day candle gets closed under the 1day MA50 though, sell and target the bottom of the wide Channel Up and the 1day MA200 at 4150. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheCryptagon
Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JULY 10, 2023Key News: USA - FOMC Member Daly Speaks USA - FOMC Member Mester Speaks USA - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks UK - BoE Gov Bailey Speaks US stocks closed the week on a downward trend as investors carefully analyzed a range of data released earlier in the month. This data instilled confidence in the stability of the US economy, leading to expectations of prolonged elevated interest rates. Throughout the week, equity markets encountered challenges stemming from positive economic data, sparking speculations of a longer period of higher interest rates. After fluctuating and contemplating the potential for rate cuts later in the year, it seems that the markets have come to terms with the idea that the economic cycle will unfold over an extended timeframe. Consequently, the S&P 500 recorded a 1.2% decline. S&P 500 daily chart The Dow concluded the week with a loss and closed lower on Friday as traders assessed a monthly jobs report for June that fell short of expectations, ending a streak of 15 months of meeting estimates. Nonetheless, there remains anticipation that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a rate hike later this month. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index daily chart The US economy added 209,000 jobs in June, which fell short of the projected 225,000 and represented a substantial decline from the 306,000 jobs added in the previous month. This figure indicates the slowest pace of job creation since December 2020, raising concerns about the overall strength of the labor market. US Nonfarm Payrolls Despite the disappointing job growth figures, there was a positive aspect to the report with regards to wage growth. Average hourly earnings in June increased by 4.4%, surpassing the estimated 4.2%. This suggests that workers are experiencing higher wages, which could potentially contribute to increased consumer spending and economic growth. While the market still expects a rate hike in July, there is speculation among investors that the cooling labor market might deter the Federal Reserve from implementing further rate hikes beyond July. This sentiment is echoed in a note from Morgan Stanley, stating that the current data may not meet the criteria for the Fed to deliver a hike in September. In other news, the US-listed shares of Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) experienced an 8% rise following the announcement of a $984 million fine imposed by Chinese authorities on Ant Group. This marks the conclusion of Ant Group's extensive regulatory restructuring process, which has been closely monitored by investors and industry observers. These developments in the job market and the regulatory landscape have contributed to a dynamic and evolving market environment, where investors are carefully evaluating the implications for monetary policy and the performance of specific companies like Alibaba. Alibaba stock daily chart As the second quarter of the 2023 earnings season begins, analysts are anticipating a consensus that S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) will decline by 9% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to stagnant sales growth and margin compression, highlighting the challenges faced by companies. However, there is a particular focus on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on companies, given the significant developments in the tech sector this year. The extent to which S&P 500 companies can effectively leverage AI to generate additional profits remains uncertain. Therefore, investors will closely examine management guidance and commentary to identify the companies that have the ability to enable, scale, and benefit from AI in the long term. Certain companies have already presented revenue and earnings outlooks that surpassed expectations, instilling confidence in their ability to navigate the current landscape. For example, Micron Technology (MU) provided optimistic revenue and earnings outlooks, while NVIDIA (NVDA) delivered significantly higher-than-consensus sales guidance for the second quarter. However, the shine of AI has been somewhat dulled by potential restrictions on the export of AI chips to China, which poses a notable risk for companies operating in this sector. Policymakers in the G4 countries, including the Japanese yen (JPY), have shown remarkable consistency in their approach, leading to limited potential for the US dollar to appreciate against other major currencies. With interest rates and equities experiencing fluctuations, there is less room for significant adjustments in foreign exchange (FX) markets. The European Central Bank (ECB) has closely aligned its approach with that of the Federal Reserve, sometimes even surpassing it in terms of rhetoric. This has prompted a reevaluation of the short-term outlook for the Eurozone, despite slower economic growth. The ECB's singular focus on combating lower inflation has provided support for the euro. However, there are limits to this approach, as extreme measures to control inflation may only be effective for a certain period, particularly when the economy is already experiencing a technical recession. If the trend persists, the more hawkish members of the ECB may adjust their stance, potentially leading to a decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate back to 1.07. EUR/USD daily chart In the upcoming week, investors will be keeping a close eye on a range of important economic indicators and events. One key highlight is the release of the consumer and producer price indexes, which provide crucial insights into inflationary pressures in the economy. These reports will be closely scrutinized as inflation remains a key concern for market participants. Additionally, the import and export price indexes will offer further indications of global trade dynamics and the impact of tariffs and trade policies on prices. This data can provide valuable insights into the health of the international trade sector and its potential effects on the broader economy. Investors will also be closely monitoring the Michigan consumer sentiment and expectations report, as consumer sentiment is an important gauge of consumer confidence and spending patterns. This data can provide valuable insights into the strength of the consumer-driven sectors of the economy. Furthermore, speeches from various Federal Reserve officials, including Barr, Mester, Daly, Bostic, Bullard, Kashkari, and Waller, will be closely watched for any hints or signals regarding the central bank's monetary policy stance. These speeches can provide valuable insights into the thinking of key policymakers and the potential future direction of interest rates. Overall, the combination of economic data releases and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will shape market expectations and influence investor sentiment in the coming week. Market participants will be analyzing these indicators and events for potential impacts on monetary policy decisions and overall market trends.
by FOREXN1
12
A traders’ playbook: looking to Japan for volatility With the US nonfarm payrolls behind us, we look to the US CPI report as the next big risk for markets. Ahead of this, we’ve seen USD sellers start to dominate with EURUSD eyeing a re-test of the 22 June high of 1.1012 and USDJPY 300 pips off its recent high. We also see GBPUSD looking poised to test the 1.2850 highs, so one for the breakout traders, especially with UK jobs/wages in play this week. Gyrations in the US (and DM) bond markets have started to impact equity sentiment, especially US 5-year real rates (DFII5 on TradingView) rising to the highest levels since 2008, at a time when the G4 central bank balance sheet is falling. We continue to watch this dynamic, while micro factors may start to play a role, with Q2 earnings rolling in. Commentaries from CEOs on expected demand, input prices and how the cost of capital is impacting are a few themes to focus on. The US500 rests on 4400 with the shorts eyeing a test of the 26 June low of 4329 – a break here, especially if it coincides with the VIX index rising above 18%, should get traders in front of the screens and taking down the timeframes. We also saw the return on the JPY, with shorts squaring as the carry trade was partly unwound - higher G3 bond and rates volatility a clear consideration here, with the MOVE index pushing to 130. We also saw Japan's data flow come in hot, notably in the TANKAN report which showed Japanese corporates expect inflation (in 5 years) to exceed 2% for the fourth quarter in a row. We see Japan's 10yr swaps rising to 60bp, and 10yr JGBs to 42.8bp and the fact funds are shorting Japanese bonds could be telling ahead of the BoJ meeting on 28 July. Japan takes centre focus – if the market genuinely believed the BoJ were to tweak its uber dovish monetary policy setting it could cause real gyrations through markets. We watch China data ahead of the July Politburo meeting, although, with elevated expectations of stimulus to be announced during this key event, one could easily feel that bad data could easily be forgiven. Central bank meetings in NZ and Canada may get some attention – although it’s the BoC meeting, which looks the far livelier affair. Rearview alpha plays - what worked best: • G10 and EM FX play of last week: short CADJPY (-1.5% last week), short USDHUF (-2.6% on the week) • Equity indices play of last week: Short FRA40 (-3.9%), short EU Stoxx 50 (-3.7%) • Commodity plays of last week – Long SpotCrude (+4.6%), short XAUGBP (-0.8% on the week) – lower for four consecutive weeks. • Equity plays for the radar – CSL (AU) – shares have fallen in 9 of 10 trading sessions. RIVN (Rivian Auto US) – shares have gained in 8 consecutive trading sessions. JP Morgan – commence the US Q2 corp. earnings on Friday. Marquee events for traders to navigate: US Core CPI inflation (Wed 22:30 AEST) – the marquee event risk of the week. The consensus is weighted towards core CPI at 0.3% MoM / 5% YoY (from 5.3%), with the economist’s range of estimates seen between 5.1% to 4.8%. Headline CPI is expected to come in at 0.3% MoM / 3.1% YoY (from 4%). The Cleveland Fed Nowcast model sees core CPI running at 5.1% YoY. With risky assets sensitive to moves in US bond yields, a core CPI print at/above 5.3% is the ‘pain trade’ and would likely see US bond yields rise further and risk taken down. While it may lower the prospect of a hike from the Fed in the July FOMC meeting, it would take a truly weak number to see market pricing for a 25bp hike fall below 50%. UK jobs and wages report (Tues 16:00 AEST) – traders will recall the red-hot April wage data which contributed to the BoE hiking rates by 50bp (in the June BoE meeting), so GBP and UK100 traders will be watching this data point closely. The market expects weekly earnings (ex-bonus) 3M/YoY to come in at 7.1% (from 7.2%). Rates markets have priced a 76% chance of a 50bp hike at the 3 Aug BoE meeting, with peak bank rate expectations at 6.41%. We also see that GBPUSD has rallied in the last 10 consecutive wage reports. US 2Q corporate earnings – JPM, J&J, Citi and Wells Fargo get us going with earnings on Friday (14 July), with JPM’s numbers getting the full attention of traders – the implied move on the day of earnings for JPM (derived from options) is 1.3%, with the bulls looking for a firm break of the range highs of $147. While we watch the price action in the US big US money centres, keep an eye on the small end of town and the regional banks – the KRE ETF is a good proxy here. Bank of Canada meeting (Thurs 00:00 AEST) – this is a ‘live’ meeting that could result in some sharp movement in the CAD – after the recent Canadian jobs report, retail sales and core CPI report, the market is skewed to a 25bp hike to take rates to 5%, with the market pricing a hike at 68% chance. We also see 16 of 24 economists calling for the hike. CAD longs preferred, with USDCAD targeting 1.3200. RBA gov Lowe speaks (13:10 AEST) – there is little Aussie tier 1 data to trouble traders this week, so RBA gov Lowe and China data get the attention. Rates markets price a 62% chance of a 25bp hike at the 1 August RBA meeting, so Gov Lowe’s outlook may influence that pricing. The Aussie jobs report (20 July) and Q2 CPI (26 July) remain the big event risks for AUD traders that could decide a hike on 1 Aug. China June CPI/PPI (Mon 11:30 AEST) – the market sees CPI at +0.2% and PPI inflation at -5% (from -4.6%). USDCNH looks to consolidate between 7.2800 and 7.2185, where a break could influence G10 FX pairs, with a higher USDCNH likely acting as a headwind for AUD and NZD. China June trade data (Thurs no set time) – China’s trade data is hard to consider for one’s risk management as there is no set time and typically has a low initial impact on Chinese equity markets or the yuan. As we look for more stimulus to be announced at the July Politburo it feels as though the market will limit the reaction. The current consensus is for China’s June exports to fall -10%, while imports are called down -4.4%. We also get China new yuan loans/aggregate financing through the week (no set time or date), and while closely watched it is unlikely a market mover. US PPI inflation (Thurs 22:30 AEST) – the market looks for 0.4% YoY on headline PPI and 2.6% YoY on core PPI – it’s hard to see this being a big market mover unless we get an outlier print (vs consensus). The PPI print should shape our understanding of the important core PCE deflator (released 28 July). RBNZ meeting (Wed 12:00 AEST) – the market sees this as a low-risk event with all 15 economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) seeing NZ interest rates on hold, with the NZD swaps market pricing just 3bps. AUDNZD gets attention and looks to have put in a short-term bottom, with longs preferred for a move to the 200-day MA at 1.0850. University of Michigan sentiment – the market expects the sentiment survey to increase to 65.5 (from 64.4). We also look at the respondents’ views on US 1-year inflation expectations, with the consensus eyeing 3.1% (from 3.3%), while the 5-10yr inflation expectations are eyed to be unchanged at 3%. Fed speakers – Daly, Mester, Bostic, Barkin, Kashkari, Waller BoE speakers – Bailey (Tues 01:00 AEST and Wed 18:00 AEST) RBA speakers – Gov Lowe speaks (Wed 13:10 AEST) ECB speakers – Villeroy, de Cos, Vujcic, Lane
by Pepperstone
S&P500 has activated a short term, at least, sell sequence.S&P500 has a 3 day bearish streak. Both medium and long term patterns are Channel Ups. The medium term has the MA50 (1d) as the Rising Support and the long term the MA200 (1d). At the moment, it seems that a Megaphone consolidation such as April-May is in order. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. 2. Buy at 4310 (bottom of the medium term Channel Up). 3. Sell if a (1d) candle closes under the MA50 (1d). 4. Buy at 4130 (bottom of the long term Channel Up). Targets: 1. 4310 (bottom of the medium term Channel Up). 2. 4640 (Resistance 2). 3. 4130 (bottom of the long term Channel Up). 4. 4640 (Resistance 2). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is exactly at the bottom of its Channel Up. A break under it, is a sell confirmation. 2. There have been two -9% corrections since December 2022. A new one would push the price straight to the MA200 (1d) which is intact since March 24th. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
5
Lots of data coming, questions over unemployment and servicesThis week, a barrage of U.S. data releases will help to shape investor sentiment. ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI are on today's schedule. Factory orders, FOMC minutes, and API crude oil stock change will follow on Wednesday. Then, on Thursday, imports, exports, ADP employment change, initial jobless claims, S&P Global Composite PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Services Employment, ISM Services PMI, and JOLTs job openings will be in focus. Finally, on Friday, average hourly earnings, non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and participation rate will be revealed (remember, we named only the most important data releases and not all that are scheduled for this week). As the unemployment rate rose from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.7% in May 2023, we are interested to see whether there was further growth in the metric. If yes, that will be a negative sign for the U.S. economy. The same will apply if there is any weakness in the services sector, which has been (so far) holding fairly strong compared to manufacturing. However, if the data will come in as expected (or better), it will likely provide more lift for the market. We will update our thoughts after today’s release. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX, two simple moving averages, and horizontal support/resistance levels. If SPX manages to hold above Resistance 1, it will be bullish. But if it fails, it will raise our concern about the rally’s breakdown. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the unemployment rate in the United States since September 1998. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
9
S&P500: One last pull back is possible before a new High.The S&P500 is pulling back following yesterday's July 4th holiday and seems to have reached a temporary top similar to May 1st. That was nearly a 1 month consolidation phase, which after testing the 1D MA50, it initiated the new bullish phase. Technically that was also the Higher Low of the four month Channel Up pattern. The 1D technicals remain bullish (RSI = 67.005, MACD = 54.870, ADX = 30.096) and as long as they do, buying is favored. We expect this short term correction to test the S1 (4,330) and then rebound, which we will buy, to the R1 (TP = 4,500), which was the April 21st 2022 High. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
3
A trader’s week ahead playbook – just roll with it Risky assets continue to climb the wall of worry, but the reality is we’ve seen conditions ripe for equity appreciation. Granted, the global central bank balance sheet is falling but the rate of change is contained, and US bank reserves are not falling as fast as feared. Liquidity is currently not the bearish catalyst for equity drawdown that many thought it might be. Economic data continues to frustrate those positioned portfolios for a recession - US consumer confidence, new home sales, and durable goods all come in hotter-than-expected. At the same time, US core PCE inflation was a touch softer at 4.6%, with softer core inflation prints also seen in Japan (Tokyo), Europe and Canada. It seems good economic news is truly good news for stocks and high beta FX – case in point, on the week, we saw the market’s expectations for the peak fed funds rate (currently seen in November) increasing by 7bp to 5.4%. Amid tighter expected Fed policy, US 2yr Treasuries gained 15bp on the week (to 4.89%) and yet despite the rise in bond yields the NAS100 gained 2.2% - closing out the best first half ever, with a remarkable gain of 39%. We’re also seeing bullish breakouts in the US500, and EU equities, with the SPA35 breaking out, while the skew is risk is that the FRA40 retests the 17 April highs. As we see in the calendar below, there is a heavy focus in the week ahead on the labour market. Unlike recent months, as long as the growth and jobs data stay firm and highlights that a US recession is a 2024 story, and with inflation grinding to target, then the equity (and risk) bulls will continue to buy dips. The risk bulls will want a solid nonfarm payrolls report, but any goodwill will be conditional on average hourly earnings (AHE) holding below 4.3% In FX markets, the USD has been frustrating and just when the bulls we’re hoping for a break of 103.38 resistance (in the USD index), the sellers reversed the goodwill. We remain on intervention watch in Japan, notably with the trade-weighted JPY falling 0.5% on the week, and well below levels since in Sept 2022, when the MoF bought Y2.8t. We’ve seen clear signs the PBoC has reached its tolerance level on USDCNY and is pushing back. USDCNH remains central to all USD moves. Let’s see if the new month brings a new trend – but knowing that the NAS100 has rallied in the last 15 consecutive months of July, it feels like the pain trade is still to the upside and the odds are skewed for higher levels – an open mind will always serve us well in trading, but for now, I am happy to just roll with it. Tactical play of the week : Long NAS100 (stop orders) above 15,220. A new month, but nothing changes – Ride the momentum, and the strong get stronger. Rearview alpha plays: • G10 and EM FX play of last week: Long NOKSEK (+1.8% last week), long USDRUB (+5.4%) • Equity indices play of last week: Long SPA35 (+3.5%) – to the highest levels since Feb 2020 • Commodity plays of last week – short corn (-16%), long Cocoa +4.6% (strong uptrend) • Equity plays for the radar – Bega Cheese (BGA.AU) – shares have fallen for 8 days in a row. Apple (eyeing $200 with a market cap over $3t). The key event risks for the week ahead RBA meeting (Tuesday 14:30 AEST) – It's hard to recall a time when making a call on an RBA policy decision was so finely balanced. One could make just as good a case to hike, as they could to hold. The economist community are evenly split (14 of 27 economists are calling for a pause), and Aussie rate futures are pricing a 40% chance of a hike. Given this dynamic, the RBA may lean on the path of least regret and hike. On the week I see AUDUSD trading a 0.6750 to 0.6580 range. AUDNZD is the cleanest play on the RBA meeting and relative policy divergence, and on the week, I would look to sell rallies into 1.0950/60. US ISM manufacturing (Tuesday 00:00 AEST) – the market expects a slight improvement in the pace of decline with the consensus set at 47.2 (vs 46.9 last month). We may need a reading above 50 to get the USD fired up, although a read above 50 would certainly surprise. Good data seems to be a positive for risky assets despite the move higher in bond yields, so expect equity to rally on a stronger-than-expected print. US weekly jobless claims (Thursday 22:30 AEST) – The economist consensus is for 245k weekly claims. Last week, we saw a strong reaction to the lower-than-expected claims print, so we know the market is looking at this data point closely. That said, we’d need a big increase/decrease from last week’s print (of 239,000) to move the dial this time around. JOLTS job openings (Friday 00:00 AEST) – the consensus here is for job openings to fall to 9.98m (from 10.1m). A pullback below 10m openings would be further relief for risky assets. A big upside surprise may see US treasuries rally (yields lower) and USDJPY should find sellers. US ISM services (Friday 00:00 AEST) – the market consensus is for slightly stronger growth in the US service sector at 51.3 (50.3). Again, we look for extreme reads vs consensus, but above 52.0 would really push back on the idea of a near-term economic slowdown. US non-farm payrolls (Friday 22:30 AEST) – the marquee economic data point of the week, where the market consensus is for 225k net jobs (the economist’s range is seen between 263k and 124k). The unemployment rate is eyed to fall back to 3.6% (3.7%), with average hourly earnings seen at 4.2% YoY. The form guide suggests the risk is for a number above 200k, having beaten expectations for 14 straight NFP prints. A big upside surprise should see USDJPY rally hard and push the BoJ/MoF a step closer to JPY intervention. Canada employment report (Friday 22:30 AEST) – the consensus is for 20k jobs to have been created, and the unemployment rate to lift a touch to 5.3%. With 13bp of hikes priced for the 12 July Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting, the outcome of the jobs report could influence that pricing and by extension the CAD. There has clear indecision on the USDCAD daily of late, subsequently, I would look to buy/sell a break of 1.3285 or 1.3116. Mexico CPI (Fri 22:00 AEST) – those that sit in the camp that Banxico cut rates in Nov/Dec will be closely watching the CPI print. The market expects a further dip in headline inflation to 5.07% and core inflation to 6.87% (from 7.39%). Carry traders are still drawn to the MXN and happy to jump on any weakness, subsequently, USDMXN seems likely to test the recent lows of 17.0227. Central bank speakers ECB – Villeroy, Guindos, Lagarde (Sat 02:45 AEST) BoE – Catherine Mann (Sat 00:30 AEST), Bailey (Sunday 17:30 AEST) US – FOMC minutes (Thurs 04:00 AEST), Williams and Logan
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
1
US 500 Analysis. Good opportunity.Hello Everyone. I want share my idea about US 500. On that chart we have pretty bullish trend which is going up well. I think who trade with trend, at the moment this is the best moment to open their long positions, but also we need to be carefully. Trend is bullish but chart show us Head And Shoulders which is bearish movement. in my opinion we need some confirmations, this is aggressive rejection from Fibonacci and support LVL, and also brake this little resistance which have us at 4385. This week we will see actually if us500 can continue bullish movement, but I think its still bullish. BE PATIENT!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by elmakacho
S&P500 Holding the 4hour MA50 is criticalS&P500 / US500 crossed back over the 4hour MA50 and so far today is holding it. For this level to stay as Support is critical as a 4hour candle close under it can delay the uptrend and send it to the 4hour MA200, 1day MA50 near the Rising Support. In that case sell and target 4300. As long as the 4hour MA50 holds, be bullish and target Resistance A at 4500. The 4hour MACD is on a Bullish Cross, favoring a buy. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
6