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SPX Market Crash: The 150y Elliott WaveThis is an SPX chart from 1872. A 150 year old chart. As you know, I am the Elliott Wave Jedi. So, I took the liberty of labeling this SPX500 chart. There's only one thing I can say: "SNP500 is preparing for a BIG Drop, a Market Crash". My Wave Count suggests that a major Bearish Swing is starting, or will start soon. The 2009 lows are inevitable. Price Action will be drawn there like a magnet. Calling all Autobots! ( SPX , SPX500 , SPX500USD , SPXUSD , US500 , SP500 ) A Recession is due and bigger events will crash the markets globally. * Some more details in the related ideas. Fundamental Analysis & Facts: * Fear vs Greed: VIX (Volatility Index) It will spike! * US Consumer Confidence Index: USCCI People are worried about the future. * US Inflation Rate: USIRYY War is coming. * US 10y Yields: TNX The 40y Downtrend Break-Out * US 10y Bonds: USB10YUSD Bonds Rush, Investors & Fear Technical Analysis: Elliott Wave Cycles The Wave Count tells me that a Major Degree is ending, in this case it's the SubMillenium Wave 3. If you are good at counting waves, then you can see that as well. The Elliott Wave Time Degrees are on the chart. Levels I am watching: $4500 & $6500. IMO, SPX has already started the Recession Bearish Swing, so I am already treating the ATH as the actual top. In case of another ATH, then this will mean that the current position was a SuperCycle (IV). After the last 5th, SPX will surely drop, from around $6500 back to $1100. However, as I said: "I believe the Markets have topped, and that the Recession has started". Check out a close-up: 2009-2022 Elliott Wave Count. I am shorting the Markets. Good luck guys and many pips ahead! Richard, the Wave jedi. P.S. Props to @TradingView for providing this 150y old chart.
TVC:SPXShort
by EW4X
9
A Traders’ Playbook – Defence remains the best form of attack Equity continues to trade heavily, and while we are getting to a point of extreme fear, the price action, and the bearish momentum in EU, AUS200 and US equity indices, suggest this is still a sellers’ market. While we have some big catalysts due this week, I still think we must navigate a passage of darkness before we see light in this tunnel. The geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East remains a dominant market consideration and the market still sees an increasing risk the conflict will not be contained with other players stepping into the conflict. A near 3% rally in Brent crude on Friday testament to those worries, with the move above $90 seeing traders bid up gold to $2006, with gold's role as the preeminent portfolio hedge once again confirmed. A move into the April/May supply area of $2050 seems perfectly feasible, and the bullish momentum in the price, and the ease by which we’ve seen gold push through well-watched resistance levels, suggests the path of least resistance remains higher and pullbacks should be well supported. The BoJ meeting could be a real curveball and while the odds are we see it proving to be a low-volatility event, if the BoJ does tweak the YCC cap to 1.5% it could trigger a wave of selling through global long-end bonds (yields higher). This would likely see sizeable gyrations play through all markets, with the JPY – which has stolen the crown from the CHF as the no.1 geopolitical FX hedge – likely to rally hard. Gov Ueda has aimed to be more predictable than former gov Kuroda, so with recent press suggesting a tweak to YCC could be on the cards, the prospect of change to policy is 50:50. We also get the US Treasury Quarterly Refunding activity throughout the week. To those who aren’t fixed-income traders, this can be an event that isn’t too well-known. As we saw in August, when the Treasury Department detailed increased auction size in its financing plans, it proved to be a key driver behind US Treasury yields rising sharply from 4%. Once again, this event does have the potential to create some big vol in bonds, which could spill over into FX and equity markets. This time around, could we see lower increases in supply, which in turn supports USTs? Staying in the US, while the FOMC meeting can never be ignored, traders get a thorough read on the US labour market and wages/earnings. On the docket, we get ADP payrolls, the Employment Cost Index, JOLTS job openings, Unit Labour Costs, jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls. US swap pricing has a 25bp hike in December priced at a 20% chance, so big numbers in this report could see that probability rise, which would likely see the USD break out of the current sideways consolidation. Corporate earnings get another run past traders, with 24% of the S&P500 market cap reporting. Apple is the marquee name to report, with the options market pricing a move on the day at 3.7% - the market focused on iPhone demand and consumer trends in China. Rallies have been sold of late, with price now below the 200-day MA for the first time since 2 March 2022. It promises to be another lively week – good luck to all. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: Month-end flows – talk is pension funds and other asset managers rebalancing in favour of selling of USDs. China manufacturing and services PMI (31 Oct 12:30 AEDT) – the market sees the manufacturing index at 50.2 (unchanged) and services index at 51.8. EU CPI (31 Oct 21:00 AEDT) – while EU growth data seems the more important factor, we could see some volatility in the EUR on this data point. The market consensus is for headline CPI to come in at 3.1% and core CPI at 4.2%. EURCAD is trending higher, and I like it into 1.4750. BoJ meeting (31 Oct – no set time) – the BoJ should increase their inflation estimates, but the focus will fall on whether there is an adjustment or even full removal of Yield Curve Control (YCC). This is where the BoJ currently cap 10-yr JGB yields (Japan Govt bonds) at 1%. The consensus sees no change to YCC at this meeting, but there is a 50:50 chance we see the cap lifted to 1.5% - an action which could see JGBs sell off (higher yields) and see global bond yields higher in symphony. It could also see the JPY rally strongly. US consumer confidence (1 Nov 01:00 AEDT) – The market expects the index to pull back to 100.0 (from 103.0) – unlikely to cause to much of a reaction across markets unless it’s a big miss. US Treasury November Refunding (30 Nov at 06:00 & 1 Nov 12:30 AEDT) – the US Treasury Department (UST) will offer its gross financing estimates for Q42023 (currently $850b) and end-of-quarter targets for its cash balances. It is likely that the gross borrowing estimate will be lowered to $800b, perhaps even lower. The lower the outcome the more USTs should rally and vice versa. On 1 Nov we will see the UST announce the size of upcoming bond auctions across the 2-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10- and 30-year bond maturities. The market expects auction sizes to increase across ‘the curve’ by around $1-2b for each maturity. As we saw in August, the higher we see these taken the greater the likely reaction in US Treasuries and subsequently the USD. FOMC meeting (2 Nov 05:00 AEDT) – The market ascribes no chance of a hike, so guidance from the statement and Powell’s press conference is key. One can never overlook a Fed meeting, but in theory, we shouldn’t learn too much new information and this should be a low-drama event. BoE meeting (2 Nov 23:00 AEDT) – UK swaps price a 4% chance of a 25bp hike at this meeting, and around a 1 in 3 chance of a 25bp hike by Feb 24. The split in the voting could also be important, with most economists leaning on a 6:3 split. The market feels like the BoE are done hiking, with cuts starting to be priced by June. US ISM manufacturing (2 Nov 01:00) – The consensus is for the index to come in at 49.0 (unchanged). Consider that the diffusion index has been below 50 since October 2022, so a reading above 50.0 could be modestly USD positive. US JOLTS job openings (2 Nov 01:00) – Last month we saw a big increase in job openings and further evidence the US labour market is tight. The consensus this time around is for 9.265m job openings (from 9.61m) – risky assets will want to see this turn lower again with reduced job openings. US nonfarm payrolls (3 Nov 23:30 AEDT) – With so many labour market and wage/earnings data point due out this week, the US NFP report is the highlight. After last month’s blowout 336k jobs print, the current consensus is for 190k jobs, the U/E rate at 3.8% and average hourly earnings at 4%. Brazil Central Bank meeting (2 Nov 08:30 AEDT) – The BCB should cut by 50bp. Earnings – This week we see earnings from UK, EU and US listed names coming in thick and fast - 24% of the S&P500 market cap report this week. Numbers from HSBC (Monday), Caterpillar (Tuesday) AMD (Tuesday), Qualcomm (Wednesday), Apple (Thursday) should get the attention.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Pepperstone
22
US500 to turnaround today?US500 - Intraday Price action has formed an expanding wedge formation. The medium term bias remains bullish. Trend line support is located at 4145. Trend line resistance is located at 4345. A break of 4172 is needed to confirm follow through bullish momentum. We look to Buy a break of 4172 (stop at 4132) Our profit targets will be 4272 and 4292 Resistance: 4172 / 4257 / 4345 Support: 4145 / 4127 / 4100 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by OANDA
US500 ~ 4H Intraday (Bearish Capitulation)CAPITALCOM:US500 intraday chart analysis: 4H chart = bearish H&S pattern development + neckline test validation. Fib retracements: Straight line/left labels = March 2020 (Covid) low - Jan 2022 high Dotted line/right labels = Jan 2022 high - Oct 2022 low 1st target (yellow dashed): ~4100 lower parallel channel & May/June lower-range chop confluence Temporary oversold/bounce target? TBC.. 2nd target (white dotted): ~4000 psych level, H&S extrapolation, 38.2% Fib retrace & declining trend-line (Aug 2022 + Feb 2023 peaks/pivot points) Bullish reversal target: ~4200 (23.6% Fib retrace)
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by BlueHatInvestor
S&P500: Megaphone buy opportunity.S&P500 is almost technically oversold on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 30.205, MACD = -54.210, ADX = 37.499) with the price reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level from the March 13th Low. The last time the RSI was at 30.000 was on October 3rd, the previous LL of the Bearish Megaphone pattern. The two bullish sequences of this pattern have been around +4.60%. Since this is a double bottom signal, we expect a rise of equal proportion, targeting the 1D MA50 (TP = 4,315). See how well our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500 on its 1week MA50. Expect +4600 Xmas rally if it holds.The S&P500 / US500 hit this week the 1week MA50 after 7 months. This is a major Support level, considering that it also made contact with the Rising Support of the 2022 market bottom. Also the 1week RSI hit the 12 month Support. As long as the 1week candles close over this, buy and target 4610 (annual High). This may be achieved before the end of the year since every rally in the past 2 years, even during the 2022 correction, was very aggressive. If the index closes a 1week candle under the MA50, we should technically see a test of the MA200. Fair estimate at 4000. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:SPXLong
by TheCryptagon
Panic is slowly setting in, VIX highest since late March 2023Yesterday, the Volatility S&P 500 Index hit its highest value since late March 2023 (when regional banks were imploding), reflecting a quickly deteriorating sentiment among market participants. Both SPX and ES1! constituted a new daily low, which continues to support a bearish case. This case is also supported by RSI and Stochastic reversing on the daily time frame and MACD flattening slightly below the midpoint (failing to break into the bullish area). As for the weekly time frame, all of the mentioned indicators develop bearish structures. In our view, more downside is very likely, with SPX testing its recent lows. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
12
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook; Buying risk when its darkestA Traders’ Playbook; Buying risk when its darkest Equities continue to find few friends and reviewing so many of the daily and weekly set-ups in our core equity indices, standing in front of the move and countering seems a low probability outcome at this juncture. The China CN50 and AUS200 look particularly weak, while EU equity markets are in steep decline, with price breaking level after level. In the US, the NAS100 sits on a huge support zone seen between 14,560 and 14,430, with the US500 eyeing the 4 Oct swing low at 4200 – if these levels are broken this week and SPX 20-day realised volatility rises further, then market chatter will centre on the S&P500 pushing towards 4000. The contrarians have started to look at sentiment and throw out a range of charts, including deteriorating market breadth and the number of stocks (in an index) below the 20-, 50- or 200-day moving average, that have an RSI below 30, or resides at 4-week lows. On current standings we’re not yet near a point of maximum bearishness. The CNN Fear and Greed can do a good job capturing the mood across markets and this says a similar message. The time for contrarianism is approaching – and who doesn’t love a tradeable V-bottom – but it isn’t now. Maybe corporate earnings can have a more positive effect and stabilise sentiment. With 47% of the S&P 500 market cap reporting this week, this is the week it could happen, and guidance and outlooks from CEOs can play a more important role. The macro matters though, and we continue to focus on geopolitical headlines, moves in the US 10- and 30-year Treasury, volatility, and energy markets. With bonds offering no defence in the portfolio, traders continue to manage drawdown risk through volatility, gold, and the CHF as the preeminent hedges. The USD hasn’t performed as well as some had hoped through this period of equity drawdown and rise in long-end bond yields. One factor is that we’re seeing a rise in EU and Chinese growth momentum, so the rest of the world is looking less bad. We also regress and understand that the CHF acts more like gold in times of geopolitical tensions, and after a 7.8% rally between July and October (in the DXY), consolidation in the USD index was always a possibility. Keep an eye on USDCNH and USDJPY as a guide, and the fact we see both pairs in a sideways consolidation is keeping broad G10 FX volatility subdued and a factor keeping the USD from moving freely on a broad FX basis. As many try and pick a turn in equity markets, a bounce in risk this week can't be ruled out, and we need to be open-minded to all possibilities – its fighting an evolving momentum though and many will prefer to initiative (or add) shorts into any rallies, rather than fight it. Buying risk when it's darkest and sentiment is rock bottom is a well-adopted market philosophy but I’m not sure we’re there just yet. Marquee data points for next week: • EU manufacturing/services PMI (24 Oct 19:00) – the market consensus is we see the diffusion index print 43.6 (from 43.4 in September) and the services index at 48.6 (from 48.7) • UK manufacturing/services PMI (24 Oct 19:30) -– the market consensus is we see the diffusion index print 44.6 (from 44.3 in September) and services at 49.3 (unchanged 49.3). A better services print could see a big reaction in GBP given how short the market has got. • Australia Q3 CPI (25 Oct 11:30 AEDT) – the consensus sees headline CPI at 5.3% yoy (from 6%) / core CPI at 5.0% yoy (5.9%). The Aussie interest rates markets price a hike on 7 Nov at 34% - so, if we get a CPI print above 5.4%, we could see the market pricing a hike at the November RBA meeting at or above 50%. AUDNZD has been the best expression for AUD bulls but is coming into a supply zone around 1.0850. • US S&P manufacturing/services PMI (25 Oct 00:45 AEDT) – a data point the market could completely ignore or could be the trigger for a sizeable reaction – the consensus is we see manufacturing at 49.9 (from 49.8) and services at 49.9 (50.1). • BoC meeting Canada (26 Oct 01:00 AEDT) – the swaps market ascribes very little chance of a hike at this meeting, and only 6bp of hikes through to March 2024 – if the tone of the statement suggests a greater risk of hikes in the future, then the CAD should rally. • ECB meeting (26 Oct 23:15 AEDT) – the ECB won’t hike at this meeting, so the focus falls on their guidance on the economic outlook and hurdle for hikes in the future. There will also be a focus on the bank’s plans to increase QT, and even look at the timeline on sales from APP and PEPP bond purchase program – if this is brought forward from Jan 2025 the market would see this EUR positive. • US Core PCE inflation (27 Oct 23:30 AEDT) – US headline PCE inflation is eyed at 3.4% (from 3.5%) and core 3.7% (3.9%) – it would have to be a big number to put a hike at the Dec FOMC meeting on the table – a November hike is not up for debate and the market sees a hold as a full-gone conclusion. • Chile central bank meeting (27 Oct 08:00 AEDT) – The market looks for a 50bp rate cut, but there are risks for 75bp – can USDCLP print new cycle highs? Central bank speakers: Fed speakers – Powell (26 Oct 07:35 AEDT – unlikely to offer any new market intel). Waller (27 Oct 00:00 AEDT) and Barr BoE speakers – Cuncliffe (27 Oct 03:45) RBA speakers – Gov Bullock (24 Oct 19:00 AEDT) & Bullock and Kent both appearing at the Senate testimony (26 Oct 09:00 AEDT) Marquee US earnings and the implied move on the day of earnings (derived from options pricing) – on the week we see 43% of the S&P500 market cap reporting. Marquee names include - Alphabet (4.8%), Microsoft (4.1%), IBM (2.7%), Meta (8.6%), Amazon (6.4%), Intel (6.6%), Exxon (2.4%)
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by Pepperstone
S&P500: A rare buy opportunity within this MA zone.S&P500 is making contact today with the 1D MA200 for the second time in 2 weeks. The 1D technical outlook is naturally bearish (RSI = 38.503, MACD = -22.450, ADX = 29.479) since the 3 month pattern is a Bearish Megaphone and we are on the third selling sequence. It is not necessary to make a new direct hit on the LL trendline as the utmost technical support level in long term uptrends is the 1W MA50 and is where the second and last buy entry can be attempted. Our target is the 1D MA50 (TP = 4,360). See how well our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
S&P500 The most important test for a long-term uptrend is now.The S&P500 had a strong rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and made a 3 day bearish streak that brought it today on the verge of testing the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) yet again. The last time it made a triple test between 4 days October 03 - 06) and managed to close all candles above it. As a result, if the S&P500 is to recover, it is critical to hold candle closings above or at least near the 1D MA200. To get a better perspective of the important of the 1D MA200 during uptrends, it is useful to look at previous such corrections that didn't end up in deeper corrections (Bear phases) but instead extended the bullish trend with rebounds on the 1D MA200. Such recent examples (besides the COVID recovery in 2020) are 2019 and 2018. In 2019 after two 1D candle closings under it (May 31, June 03 2019), the 1D MA200 held multiple times in July and September. Similarly in 2018, only two days (March 23 and April 02 2018) closed marginally below the 1D MA200 in multiple tests. Bottom-line: the index MUST hold the 1D MA200 in order to overcome the 3 month correction since July and resume the long-term bullish trend it has since the start of the year. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
2
Trader Thoughts – when realised vol rises that’s when we worrySentiment in markets continues to sour, with the market heading towards the safety of gold, the CHF and equity index volatility. We see the VIX index above 20%, showing a pickup in market players hedging equity drawdown, and paying up for downside puts in the S&P500. The VIX index at 21.4% equates to implied daily moves in the US500 of 1.34%, and 3% over the week. The market's key concern, and a critical mover of risk, remain concerns surrounding an escalation in the countries involved in the geopolitical tensions, with the US unable to contain the conflict. It is becoming one largely correlated trade – new headlines emerge, Brent crude, and to a lesser extent (currently) EU Nat gas rallies, and we subsequently see buyers in the CHF and gold. Equity vol also rises, and funds rotate into defensive areas of the market and offset risk through energy names. It would be when we see S&P500 realised volatility moving higher that should see things move even more aggressively. This is where we see a lot of the hedge funds that target a specific level of volatility start to reduce equity holdings, while CTA’s (systematic trend following funds) would also reduce exposures. With reduced buyers in the market and higher vols, this is the time when short sellers will see their ideal conditions to deploy strategies. As we see S&P500 10-day realised vol remains subdued, but any lift could have big implications. The other aspect of the market cross-current is the ever-higher yields in 10- and 30-year US Treasuries. This has in part been driven by a rise in US real rates (bonds adjusted for expected inflation over that period). But also, ‘term premium’, or the additional compensation bond investors require to hold longer-dated debt rather than simply holding and rolling over 2-year Treasuries upon maturity. A resilient US economy is partly behind that, and so is the Fed’s current commitment to higher for longer. The deteriorating US fiscal position is likely playing a role in higher long-end yields too and the notion of increasing supply from the US Treasury department, a factor even Jay Powell mentioned last night was “unsustainable”. As we head to the next US Treasury Quarterly Refunding date in November, the fact President Biden is requesting a $100b aid package for Israel and Ukraine to a leaderless House will only exacerbate concerns around Increasing bond supply and the potential demand from private investors. While fixed-income investors see the conviction in trading Treasury curve steepeners, many others ask, “Will something in the system break”? Well, we look for the signal in the price action in credit, volatility, and bank equity. For now, what may be more prevalent, in the shorter term, would be a sharp rise in energy that moves concurrently with even higher long-end yields – that would be a toxic mix for risk. As we close out the week, traders will be paying attention to the tape today as we roll into European and US trade – Will traders de-risk going into the weekend and put further safe-haven bets on, seeing the potential for another gapping risk in Monday's cash and futures open?
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Pepperstone
Country Garden is unable to meet the offshore debt payments The past few days were quite choppy for SPX. However, S&P 500 E-mini Futures have not broken above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. That allows us to maintain a bearish stance and keep the recently introduced setup valid. As a result, there is not much to write about today, except for one noteworthy thing that caught our attention overnight: one of the largest Chinese real estate developers, Country Garden, failed to meet offshore debt payments (already in the grace period), suggesting default proceedings might be next. We will update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of ES1! and Fibonacci retracement levels. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
6
S&P500 Bullish Flag calls for a buy.The S&P500 got rejected twice near the MA50 (1d), causing a 7 day decline. Since the October rise has been stronger so far than this decline, we can consider it as a Bullish Flag. The price is approaching the MA200 (1d), where the October rally basically started. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 4380 (MA50 1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is on the exact symmetrical level as the September 7th Low. An additional bullish signal, at least for the short term. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingBrokersView
3