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Us500

S&P500: Over July's Channel Down. Big bullish breakout.S&P500 crossed over the Channel Down that started in late July, turned bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.269, MACD = 21.240, ADX = 31.244) and ahead of the U.S. CPI report is targeting the R2 level. If today's 1D candle closes over the top of the Channel Down, aim at the R2 without a pullback (TP = 4,530). If it closes under it, buy after a pullback near the 1D MA50, with the same target. Long term, we are targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 4,690), as this is the technical target of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which was validated by the 1D RSI Double Bottom on October 27th. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
Trouble lies aheadAs the Chinese stocks are starting to show signs of weakness after a few days of upside movement, we expect the same scenario to play out in the U.S. market. With that said, the setup we introduced in a previous article remains valid. To support a thesis about a bearish reversal, we want to see MACD fail at breaking into the bullish zone on the daily chart; in addition to that, we want to see RSI and Stochastic continue declining. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows two Chinese stock market indices we are paying close attention to. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the weekly chart of MACD. A breakout below the midpoint is something to watch in the following weeks. If MACD succeeds in breaking below zero points, it will be very bearish. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
8
US500 - Break or Make ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. DAILY: Left Chart 📊 From a long-term perspective, US500 has been trading bearishly within the confines of a descending broadening wedge marked in red. Currently , it is approaching the upper boundary, which acts as a non-horizontal resistance. 📈 For the bulls to maintain control and assume dominance from a macro perspective, a breakthrough above 4420.0 is essential. Meanwhile , there's still potential for the bears to exert influence and drive the price lower. H1: Right Chart From a short-term viewpoint, US500 remains bullish; however, the momentum appears to be weakening as the recent price action has been relatively flat, occurring within the boundaries of the orange channel. 📉 For the bears to seize control and trigger a bearish scenario, a drop below the last low in the orange channel, around 4360.0, is necessary. Meanwhile , the bulls will retain control unless this key level is breached. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheSignalyst
4
NAS100 – up 8 straight days & the chase is heating up We see the NAS100 up for 8 straight days, with price breaking the July downtrend and testing the 12 Oct swing high – a record closing high for Microsoft clearly helping. Naturally, we don’t see the NAS100 up for 8 days in a row too frequently, and since 2010 we’ve seen this run of form 32 times. It can be quite compelling to short a market having had such a stretch, but running the backtest I find if I bought the NAS100 on the 8th up day, 53% of the time I would rally for a 9th – in fact, five days later the index would be higher 65% of the time. Granted, in many of those years the US equity markets were in a bull market and pullbacks were buying opportunities, but it still suggests momentum favours the brave. Let’s not forget the NAS100 futures haven’t closed lower in the month of November since 2011 – although a 6.4% rally MTD is punchy.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
S&P500 and VIX. A tale of two opposites.It's no secret that the stock market and in this particular example, the S&P500 (chart on the left), is negatively correlated to the Volatility Index (chart on the right). What we do want to bring to your attention however is how tightly this correlation has been in the past 12 months with VIX's Falling Wedge having the price on its middle, almost on perfect symmetry with the S&P's Bullish Megaphone. See the recurring sequences within both patterns (tops/ red, bottoms/ greens, consolidations/ blue arcs) and how inversely correlated they are. Right now VIX is headed for its Support where it ends to rebound and consolidate for around 1 month, before sharply declining for a new Lower Low. Similarly we expect the S&P500 to rise some more before peaking for the short-term, then pull-back to consolidate and then stage an aggressive end-of-the-year rally. Can it repeat a +20% rally as the previous 2 rally legs of the past 12 months? Doubtful, but potentially taking profits when VIX bottoms is certainly a good indicator to have in mind. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
2
Sentiment ping-pongAs the bearish setup we introduced last week was not triggered, we continue to watch the SPX on the sidelines and wait for a better trade opportunity to emerge. In the meantime, we want to highlight a persistent positive correlation between the U.S. and Chinese markets. It is amazing how, once again, the reversal in the Chinese stocks preceded the same price action in the U.S. stock market (by just a few days). Therefore, we will keep paying attention to what is happening overseas in the foreseeable future as well. With that said, we will update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of the SPX and simple support/resistance levels. If SPX breaks above Resistance 1, it will further bolster a bullish case in the short term. However, a failure to break above this level (and hold above it) will raise our suspicion about the potential reversal. Illustration 1.02 The image above displays daily charts of the HSI (Hang Seng Index) and the SSE (Shanghai Composite Index). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
8
S&P500 Over the 1day MA50 but short term sell opportunityThe S&P500 index / US500 broke and closed over the 1day MA50 on Friday, for the first time in almost 2 months. Even though it is a major long term bullish development, we see a short term sell opportunity as the 1day RSI is reversing, signalling a loss of strength on the 5 day rally. The long term pattern remains a Bearish Megaphone, so such minor technical correction is justified. Sell and target 4270 (Fibonacci 0.382, a level always reached inside the Megaphone's corrections). Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TheCryptagon
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: risk fires up with shorts crushed We knew it was an event heavy week and that extreme fear was priced into risky assets, but the ensuing moves across markets were prolific. The question for this week is whether to chase, to buy weakness within the ST trend or to counter. The fact we saw US 10-year Treasuries drop 26bp on the week to 4.57%, with 10-year real rates -23bp to 2.17%, catching a market positioned heavily short. As buyers covered and even reversed in US Treasury exposures, the pressure valve was released on the equity market, where the result was the biggest weekly gain in the US500 (+5.9%) of the year, reclaiming the 50-day MA. High short interest stocks went on a blistering run. The NAS100 had its best weekly gain since January and price eyes trend resistance at 15,181. The VIX index was crushed 6.4 vols to 14.9%, while High Yield credit spreads tightened 39bp. The market has certainly questioned the US exceptionalism story, which had resulted in so much capital flowing into USDs. While the US Treasury Department’s preference to skew upcoming bond issuance to shorter tenors helped flatten the US 2s v 10s yield curve, we also saw a clear cooling in the US nonfarm payrolls report, marrying with a weaker ISM manufacturing and services, and consumer confidence report. A weaker USD has helped risk FX implied volatility trades to the lowest levels since 2022, and we saw the USD universally shunned, losing 1.4% w/w, with high beta FX (CLP, COP, MXN, NZD, AUD) all putting on a show and seeing some huge gains. GBPUSD stopped short of 1.2400, with EURUSD eyeing 1.0750. Positioning has played a big part in the moves, with both bond and equity shorts covering hard, and risk hedges being unwound, amid a dusting of aggressive organic longs being put on. With a decent amount of the re-positioning out of the way, while a cooling of data is acceptable, if the economics darkens there will be a tipping point where it negatively impact sentiment and we’ll likely see equity and bond rally concurrently. The fact that SOFR rates futures priced an additional 20bp of cuts for 2024 (to price 106bp of cuts) highlights the markets vision of slowing economic trends. Debating when the first rate cut comes from the Fed is all the rage again – where the market prices this action at the May FOMC meeting. Look for US mega-cap tech to work well if this theme gets traction. The week ahead As we look ahead at the new week, we see the event risk is on the light side, so we may see the market pause for breath. With 17 different Fed speakers, including Chair Powell, due to speak this week we may see some modest push-back on easier financial conditions and that may unsettle risk. My preference is to buy weakness in equity and risk FX, as it feels like the rally in long-end US Treasuries has been a tad too powerful. An open mind is always essential. Out of the US data and central bank chatter, the RBA meeting, China data and data flow from the LATAM region will garner interest. Trades I like - short NOKSEK, USDCLP, EURAUD, EURCHF (into 0.9670) and US crude. On the long side AUDCAD, coffee and GBPCAD. Key event risk for traders to navigate: RBA meeting (Tuesday 14:30 AEDT) – the meeting offers a clear risk for both AUD and AUS200 exposures. While economists are largely on the same page with a 25bp hike, the rates market prices a hike at 60%, with a total of 43bp of hikes priced to peak rate in June 2024. The base case is for a 25bp hike, but it certainly wouldn’t be a complete shock to see them on hold. AUDUSD looks constructive for 0.6600, however, I also like short EURAUD trades for a swing move to 1.6250. RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (Friday 11:30 AEDT) – the RBA will release its new economic projections, with core CPI likely to be revised up 40bp for Dec 23 to 4.4%, and headline CPI to 4.5%. We should still see the RBA getting back to the 2-3% inflation target range by Dec 2025. Unemployment should be revised lower, while GDP assumptions revised modestly higher in the years out. China trade balance (Tuesday – no set time) – The market consensus is for a further improvement in the pace of decline with imports to come in -4.5% and exports at -2.9%. China CPI/PPI (Wed 12:30 AEDT) – the market looks for CPI to print -0.2% and PPI -2.8% (-2.5%). Unlikely to be a major event risk, with USDCNH driven by the USD. UK Q3 GDP (Friday 18:00 AEDT) – the consensus is for -0.1% qoq / 0.5% yoy, which are hardly inspiring growth numbers. While GDP is old news, the data could still influence the GBP given how sensitive traders are to growth metrics. Positioning shows a market heavily short of GBP, notably real money accounts who hold an extensive net short exposure. Leverage funds (mostly hedge funds) hold a decent short exposure too and have built on it over the week. Mexico CPI (Wed 23:00 AEDT) – The consensus estimate is for headline CPI to come in at 4.28% yoy and core CPI at 5.5% yoy (from 5.76%). With the market pricing the first rate cut in the March to May period it would take a very weak CPI print to rush that pricing forward. Still, with Banxico wanting to see greater disinflation before easing, this is a risk for MXN traders’ exposures. Banxico (Mexico) meeting (Friday 06:00 AEDT) – we should almost certainly see interest rates on hold at 11.25%. The bank’s outlook and guidance are where we could see the volatility in MXN. Chile CPI (Wed 22:00 AEDT) – the consensus is that we see CPI inflation at 0.6% mom and 5.1% yoy (unchanged). After cutting by a smaller-than-expected 50bp in the October meeting, and halting its USD purchases we’ve seen a breathtaking rally in the CLP (Chilean peso). While the market expects another 50bp cut in the Dec BCCh meeting, the CLP will take its direction from broad risk sentiment in markets and the CPI print may have a short-lived impact. I like USDCLP further lower. Key corporate earnings – FY earnings from WBC (6 Nov) & NAB (9 Nov) Central bank speakers BoE - Huw Pill (7 Nov at 04:00 AEDT & 9 Nov 19:30 AEDT), Gov Bailey (8 Nov 20:30 AEDT) ECB – Lane (8 Nov 19:45 AEDT & 9 Nov 19:10 AEDT), President Lagarde (10 Nov 04:30 AEDT) Fed – Chair Powell (10 Nov 06:00 AEDT)
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
US500- Keylevels - DailySpectacular comeback for us500, but now let's see what will happen next week. It seems that it manages to close both the week and the day well and thus leaves room for another climb up to the area of 4398-4400. Here we have an ultimate test for buyers, let's see if they want to leave and collect the profits or if they will still stay in the game. Buyers must show strength at that level as well. As I see the price action, I would like to see a rejection from 4400, followed by a retest of the support from where to take new liquidity and where I will also be a buyer.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by sfc95
S&P500: This is the strongest rally of the year!S&P500 hit our TP = 4,315 (see chart at the bottom) even earlier than we expected and finally turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.977, MACD = -34.150, ADX = 40.157). In the process, it broke above the 1D MA50 for the first time since September 15th. The wider pattern is a Channel Down now. If the price gets rejected inside the pattern. e.g the R1 level (4,400), we will buy on the pullback to the 1D MA200 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 4,270. If it crosses over the top of the Channel Down, we will buy on the next 1D MA50 pullback. In both events, the target is the R3 level (TP = 4,600). See how well our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
"Higher for longer" to stay with usDuring yesterday’s FOMC press conference, Jerome Powell outlined the resiliency of the U.S. economy and labor market. In addition to that, the chairman reiterated the FED’s commitment to fighting inflation and bringing it to the goal of 2%. However, when asked whether the FED is confident about financial conditions being restrictive enough to finish the fight, the chairman answered that they are not confident about this fact and that more rate hikes might be on the table. Furthermore, Powell explained that all the effects of cumulative tightening had not been felt yet, allowing them to pause rate hikes and reassess the situation based on the upcoming data. With that said, we expect the policy of high-interest rates to continue to exert pressure on the economy, slowing it down. Plus, we disagree with FED’s outlook for no recession in 2024. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
15
SPX500 to continue in the rally?US500 - Intraday Price action has formed an expanding wedge formation. The formation has a measured move target of 4540. The trend of lower highs is located at 4323. Bespoke resistance is located at 4331. A break of 4340 is needed to confirm follow through bullish momentum. Economic figures could adversley affect the short term technical picture. We look to Buy a break of 4340 (stop at 4300) Our profit targets will be 4440 and 4460 Resistance: 4323 / 4331 / 4380 Support: 4269 / 4190 / 4187 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by OANDA
📊 Indices Showdown: NASDAQ & S&P 500 at Critical Levels 🎲Hey Indices Traders! 🙌 The stock market is on the edge, and it's time to strategize. 🤔 📉 NASDAQ: Sitting at a major resistance of 14,646. Today's opening is a game-changer. Will it rebound or plummet? 🎢 📊 S&P 500: We've been short and it's paying off. The U.S. market opening is the moment of truth. It's a coin flip right now. 🪙 🤷‍♂️ Why Not Bitcoin?: While indices have their place, let's not forget Bitcoin—the smartphone to indices' feature phone. It's the asset of the future. 📱📞 🌍 Global Factors: With the Middle East situation, expect some volatility. Keep your options open. 🌐 🔮 Outlook: Indices are at a crossroads. Keep your eyes peeled and be ready to pivot. 🔄 That's the quick rundown! Stay alert and keep those charts up. 📈 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
CME_MINI:ES1!
by FX_Professor
Time for a slight rebound?The S&P 500 Index bounced off the support near $4,103 on Friday. Then, today, the futures market opened up about 0.5%, bringing the index closer to $4,140 (by the way, on Friday, the futures market also opened up by approximately the same amount). Now, we will observe whether the index will overtake its Friday high; if yes, it will bolster the odds of a rebound in the short term (potentially up to somewhere between $4,200 and $4,300). For more clues about the rebound, we will also watch the Chinese stock market as we expect it to go through the relief ahead of the U.S. stocks (as a matter of fact, SSE has already been trending up in the last week, with HSI somewhat lagging). However, if SPX fails to take out its Friday high, accompanied by a spike in the VIX, it will alert us to more downside. The list of some of the corporations reporting their earnings this week: - Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD - Airbnb NASDAQ:ABNB - Apple NASDAQ:AAPL - Caterpillar NYSE:CAT - CVS Health Corp. NYSE:CVS - HSBC Holdings NYSE:HSBC - McDonalds NYSE:MCD - Pfizer NYSE:PFE - Pinterest NYSE:PINS - Shopify NYSE:SHOP - Stellantis N.V. NYSE:STLA Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
4
S&P500 This trend-line separates bull from more pain.The S&P500 index had a green session yesterday as the price made a Lower Low at the bottom of the Channel Down and seems to be rebounding. Technically that is the bullish leg towards the new Lower High, with the previous being priced on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This Channel Down however, on a 1D RSI basis as well, resembles the August - October 2022 pattern. Both corrections have almost 1 year between them. If the long-term structure that connects them is a Channel Up, then there is more selling ahead, with the potential Support/ long-term Accumulation level being on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). In October 2022, that level was continuously tested for 2 weeks in a row and held. The bottom of that Channel Down was confirmed after the 4H MA150 (green trend-line) broke to the upside. As a result, a fair guess would be to buy if a break-out above the 4H MA150 (now at 4275) takes place again. If it does, we will buy again and target the standard +20% medium-term rise within this 12 month span (happened 3 times) aiming at 4930 (would make a new All Time High). If the index stays below the 4H MA150, we will wait until the price bounces off the 1W MA200 and buy with 4740 as the target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Channel Down bottom buy opportunity.The S&P500 index reached on Friday the bottom of the 3 month Channel Down and today's big (1d) green candles shows us that the Lower Low is most likely priced. Technically this is the most ideal buy entry for a rise towards the top of the pattern. Every top/ Lower High reached at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 4285 (0.618 Fibonacci level). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) made a Double Bottom and rebounded, a strong bullish sign. Pay attention to the Falling Resistance, you may want to book the profit earlier on a potential rejection there. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingBrokersView