Get started

Us500

S&P500 Huge buy signal confirmedFollowing last week's buy signal (chart below) on the S&P500 index (SPX), we shift our attention on the 1W time-frame where the new long-term buy signal has just been confirmed: As you see, the price closed above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) yesterday, invalidating any bias for further decline and confirming the resuming of the long-term bullish trend within the Channel Up pattern since the October 2022 bottom. The 1W RSI rebounded exactly on its Higher Lows trend-line, giving a strong bottom signal where previous rebounds have been completed at least a +9.85% rise. As a result, we update our long-term target to 4750. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
4
NAS100 - is the skew of risk tilted for a re-test of 15,800?The current flow suggests this is the risk. On the daily chart, we see price closing above the 61.8 fibo of the July/Aug sell-off, as well as the 24 Aug highs. We see price holding above the 3-day EMA, with this ultra-ST moving average pulling above the 8-day EMA. Momentum accounts would be increasing net long positions on this move. On a micro level, Nvidia is eyeing a new high, and Apple is also showing good buying interest again and as long as those stocks, along with Microsoft, attract new buyers, then the skew of risk is that the NAS100 re-visits 15,800. Happy to cut longs upon a 3- & 8-day EMA bearish crossover, flipping to shorts on a daily close below 14,687.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
SP500 / US500Did we get a right shoulder invalidation of the possible SP500 head and shoulders patterns? It is quite early to suggest that. We need the right shoulder to prove itself and work as support to give me more conviction. As long as we stay on top of the right shoulder ~4470 I am carefully bull. If we fall back under it I'm waiting for a test of the neckline ~4340. In this situation price probably would break it and tests the big support 4195 area. As long as we stay on top of the ~4180 I am long term bull If you trade use stop losses! 1st mistake novice traders do is that they don't use them and gets their ass burned! -PalenTrade
CAPITALCOM:US500
by PalenTrade
5
SPX500 H4 | Potential Bearish reaction off 78.6% fibo?Price is approaching our sell entry at 4470.7, which is a swing high resistance level and at the 78.6% fibo projection. Our stop loss is at 4507.0, which is placed above the previous swing high resistance, and beyond the 61.8% fibo retracement and 100% fibo projection. Take profit is at 4421.4, which is an overlap support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): ** Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
S&P500:US Economic Indicators Reflect Growing Concerns Amidst...US Economic Indicators Reflect Growing Concerns Amidst Ongoing Challenges As economic indicators unfold, the US economy grapples with a myriad of challenges, leaving forex traders and market participants in a state of heightened uncertainty. The week ahead presents a series of key data releases that shed light on the current economic landscape. The latest predictions for the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 19th point to a figure of 240K, with Continuing Claims for the week ending August 12th anticipated at 1,708K. This comes after Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week were reported at 239K, and Continuing Claims for the week before at 1,716K. These figures provide insights into the ongoing dynamics of the job market, highlighting the impact of the economic challenges faced in recent weeks. A significant concern is reflected in the forecast for US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for July, which are expected to plummet by 4.0% on a monthly basis. Additionally, Durables Excluding Transportation are predicted to rise by a modest 0.2% monthly. This is in stark contrast to the strong performance observed in June, where Durable Goods Orders surged by 4.7% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation rose by 0.6%. Furthermore, Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for July are anticipated to inch up by only 0.1%, following a slightly stronger 0.2% increase in June. The energy sector also remains in focus, with US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending August 18th expected to stand at 33B cubic feet. This comes after a previous report indicated inventories of 35B cubic feet for the week ending August 11th. These indicators collectively paint a picture of an economy grappling with challenges on multiple fronts. The US economy has been plagued by disappointing data, coupled with consumer debt levels reaching record highs. Sticky core inflation and positive surprises from other countries only add to the complexity. The US Federal Reserve has acknowledged the possibility of higher rates, even if a pause wouldn't indicate a reversal. Amidst this backdrop, the threat of stagflation looms large, a possibility that the markets may be underestimating. As the forecast for the SP500 remains cautiously bearish, with consideration of the 38.2% Fibonacci levels, dynamic trendline, and support area, traders and investors find themselves at a critical juncture. Despite recent upward movement, the presence of these technical factors suggests the potential for a rebound in the nexts session, implying that the current phase might be a retracement rather than a complete reversal. The overall sentiment points toward ongoing challenges in the US equity markets, with potential implications for the foreseeable future. ✅ Please share your thoughts on S&P500 in the section below. Don't Forget to LIKE this Idea and FOLLOW me !
SP:SPX
by FOREXN1
9
A traders’ weekly playbook – moving past Summer markets We move past Jackson Hole with a slight hawkish lean from chair Jay Powell, and this adds increased empathises on US core PCE inflation and US nonfarm payrolls as the big macro event risks. It remains unlikely we get a hike from the Fed in September, but November is shaping up to be a ‘live’ event, where both data points have the potential to throw interest rate expectations around. When many other G10 central banks are already priced for an extended pause, the Fed potentially going again in November is supporting the USD. EU CPI garners interest, where a weaker print could see increased expectations the ECB go on an extended pause, with EURUSD possibly breaking trend support. China remains front and centre, as we look at PMI data, as well as headlines on fiscal support/yuan funding costs/property company solvency. It seems clear that the US exceptionalism story hasn’t gone away – the US remains the best house in the street and the USD is favoured higher. GBPUSD is breaking down, and I favour shorts here, with EURUSD to be sold on rallies or through trend support. The MXN is the powerhouse, with EURMXN biased further lower. Tactically, I like equity lower, but the set-ups and flow aren’t there at present, and I’d like the VIX index around 20% before having greater conviction on shorts. Gold remains focused on the USD and real rates, although XAUAUD and XAUJPY have been working for those wanting to take gold longs – buying any market in the perceived weakest currency can offer double bubble, although adding an FX leg to the trade can make life more problematic. The marquee event risks for traders to navigate: Month-end flows – Month-end rebalancing flows may influence price action this week, with sell-side banks suggesting these flows could support the USD. Looking forward and the seasonals, over the past 15 years, Sept is the worst month for US500, NAS100, AUS200, HK50 and gold returns. The DXY has rallied in the past 6 consecutive September’s. Let’s see if past performance is any guide this time around as we move past the US and EU/UK summer holiday period and the big hitters come back to their desks. US core PCE inflation (31 Aug 22:30 AEST) – the consensus is eyeing headline PCE inflation at 3.3% yoy (from 3%), with base effects kicking in. Core PCE is expected at 0.2% mom & 4.2% yoy (from 4.1%). We await the Aug US CPI print on 13 Sept, where expectations are we see headline CPI rise to 3.6% (from 3.2%). While expectations are low for a September Fed hike, a hike in the November meeting is priced at 62% and the PCE inflation data may affect that pricing, with the USD may be sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations. US nonfarm payrolls (1 Sept 22:30 AEST) – The consensus from economists sits at 168,000 jobs (the analyst's range sits between 230k to 120k), with the U/E rate eyed at 3.5% (unchanged). Average hourly earnings (AHE) are expected at 0.3% MoM/4.3% YoY. The 6-month payrolls average comes in at 223k and 12m average at 280k. The US 2-year Treasury is a big USD driver at present, and further moves in yield towards 5.11% would keep the USD bullish momentum going. US ISM manufacturing (2 Sept 00:00 AEST) – the consensus is we see the index at 47.0 (from 46.4). Some improvement is therefore expected, but the manufacturing index is still likely to show contraction (below 50.0 is contraction). It’s hard to know if the market will run with this manufacturing data point, as its influence on volatility is rarely consistent. US rates markets see very little chance of a hike in the Sept FOMC, but 15bp for November, and this data point will unlikely alter that with inflation and jobs taking the limelight. EU CPI (31 Aug 19:00 AEST) – The market sees EU headline inflation coming in at 5.1% (from 5.3%), core CPI eyed at 5.2% (from 5.5% in June). The market prices 9bp of hikes (a 36% probability) for the 14 Sept ECB meeting, and 18bp by December - this EU CPI print could impact this pricing. EURUSD finds buyers at trend support (drawn from the March lows), but rallies are to be sold in my opinion – with real risks EURUSD heads towards the May lows (1.0635). Aus (monthly) CPI inflation (30 Aug 11:30 AEST) – The consensus is we see the monthly inflation read come in at 5.2% (from 5.4%). While we await the Q3 CPI on the 25 Oct, a 5.2% headline CPI print will reinforce expectations that the RBA sit on their hands at the 5 Sept RBA meeting, where the market currently prices no chance of a hike from the RBA at this meeting. We also get the July retail sales report on Monday (11:30 AEST) with expectations of a 0.2% increase MoM, but I wouldn’t expect this to result in AUD volatility unless it’s a big miss/beat. AUDUSD favoured lower for a re-test of 0.6360. China Manufacturing and Services PMI (31 Aug 11:30 AEST) – The market looks for the manufacturing index at 49.1 (from 49.3), and services at 51.0 (51.5) – while transparency in the data flow is becoming more problematic for traders to price risk, this could be a key piece of data this coming week. Unless CNH forward points move higher again and traders lose positive carry in USDCNH longs, I like USDCNH higher on the week, although AUD could be a more effective play on China this week. Banxico (Mexican Central Bank) inflation report (31 Aug 04:30 AEST) – In the August policy meeting Banxico guided inflation at 4.6% in Q423 and 3.1% in 2024. Core inflation is eyed at 5% in Q4. The market prices 6 rate cuts in Mexico over the coming 12 months. Despite expectations of easing, EURMXN has been a solid momentum short of late trading to the lowest levels since 2015. The MXN remains the standout major currency in 2024. MXNJPY has gained an incredible 23.1% in 2024. Fed speakers – Barr, Bostic, Collins, Mester BoE speakers – Ben Broadbent (27 Aug 02:25 AEST) & Huw Pill speaks (31 Aug 17:15 AEST) RBA speakers – RBA gov Bullock (29 Aug 17:40 AEST) BoJ speakers – Tamura (30 Aug 11:30 AEST) and Nakamura (31 Aug 11:30 AEST)
Short
by Pepperstone
US500 Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Fibonacci StrategyFollow-up of my " US500 Short-Med Term Outlook " chart. Updates: - Removed Horizontal Lines - Upward Parallel Channel (green) captures recent Bullish movement - Demand Zone (white box) of keen interest if price action collapses - Heavy emphasis on Fib Extension (line) & Retracement (dotted) aka Fibonacci Strategy - has been doing a decent job identifying key Support/Resistance levels - Narrowed time-frame down from 4hr to 1hr for better tracking when loading new bars Chart looks 'squished' on initial view - this is by deliberate design to capture entire Fib Extension & Retracement (so far) when you're zooming in on chart. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers :) CAPITALCOM:US500 CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:ES2! SP:SPX AMEX:SPY
CAPITALCOM:US500
by BlueHatInvestor
US500 Will Move Higher! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 4463.6. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 4597.3. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by SignalProvider
10
Relief led by a new "meme" stockIn the previous article on SPX, we highlighted how MACD was approaching the midpoint (on the daily time frame) and said that a bearish breakout below zero would likely coincide with the price dropping to the area between $4,250 and $4,350. On Friday, SPX temporarily dropped to this area and constituted a new low at $4,335.31 (following the peak in July 2023). Interestingly, that same day, there were news about China’s property giant Evergrande filing for bankruptcy in the USA, and later during the trading, U.S. indices rebounded. On Monday, the relief continued, with the tech sector posting the most significant gains (led by Nvidia, Tesla, etc.). Today, markets are slightly up again, and the main question is whether the selling is done. To get more clues about the answer to this question, we are paying close attention to RSI, Stochastic, and MACD on the daily chart. In addition, we continue to monitor the situation in the Chinese stock market, where there is still a lack of clarity on what regulators will do to stop the unraveling property crisis. To support a thesis about the short-term trend reversing back to bullish, we would like to see SPX holding above $4,400 for at least two consecutive closes. Furthermore, we would like to see Stochastic successfully continue to the upside, and RSI break the bearish structure (on the daily chart). Contrarily, to support a bearish thesis, we want to see MACD stay below the midpoint and Stochastic with RSI fail to reverse. Additionally, we do not want to see a crash in VIX because that would be bullish. We will update more thoughts on the situation with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates a looming bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA; if the crossover is successful, it will bolster the bearish case for SPX in the short and medium term. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of RSI. If RSI breaks above the resistance, it will be slightly bullish. In such a case, we will monitor the distance traveled by RSI after the breakout; the shorter the length, the higher chance of a fakeout. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
10
S&P500 Target achieved. Now looking for a rebound.The S&P500 index (SPX) hit our 4350 Sell Target that we set on last week's idea (see chart below) and immediately started a two day rebound: This rebound is taking place just above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Resistance. We've mentioned countless times that the long-term pattern is a Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom and this rebound is taking place after the 1D RSI hit the 33.30, which was the level where the March 13 bottom was priced. As a result, the current level is a strong candidate for a new long-term buy, targeting 4640 (March 29 2022 High), despite the fact that the previous two correctional waves to a Lower Low declined at least by -9.00%. The bullish confirmation will come when the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross. It just touched the top of its 9 month Support Zone. If however the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100, we will add a sell for short-term profit, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at the bottom of the Channel Up at 4220 (just above a projected -9.00% decline) and then add a second (and final) buy that will naturally target 4640 as well. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
S&P 500 H4 | Bearish reaction off 23.6% Fibo?Price is approaching our sell entry at 4401.43, which is a pullback resistance level, and at the 23.6% fibo retracement. Our stop loss is at 4449.30, which is placed slightly above the 38.2% fibo retracement and it is also a pullback resistance level. Take profit is at 4341.27, which is a multi-swing low support level. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): ** Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
S&P ⇨long-term predictionhello guys... as you can see the head of the pattern touched the flip area, this strategy is fascinating for setup! and then formed a head and shoulders pattern and broke up the neckline very well, so the target of this pattern is $4630 after that it is more probable if the price retraces to the QML and the neckline, let's see what happens. ______________________________ always do your research. If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them. And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by melikatrader94
13
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook; destination Jackson Hole The big market themes last week were trading increased China risk and a resilient US economy with higher US ‘real’ yields (TradingView - TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE ) – the result was broad USD strength and global equity weakness. GBP longs also saw tailwinds from the UK data flow, with GBPNOK the best performing major currency pair on the week – Services PMI could test GBP longs this week, although pullbacks should be shallow. US equity and index options expiry may have played a part in the equity drawdown, with dealer’s net short gamma and delta hedging through shorting S&P500 futures and single stock names. Let’s see how options dealers/market makers deal with this inventory of short positioning/hedges this week, as it may be unwanted - suggesting risk that they buy-back short S&P500 futures hedges (to close), which could cause an early relief rally in equity. Positioning will play a huge part this week and it wouldn’t take much to see US real rates a touch lower, with the USD following in its wake. As the new trading week cranks up, news flow on China will drive and should the HK50 and CNH find further selling interest, then I’d be aligned, with a bias to look at short GER40 trades. The China property sector remains the elephant in the room, with the market finding little tangible fiscal support to reprice risk higher – the price action in the HK50 reflects that, with rallies quickly sold into. It’s time for Chinese authorities to step it up. We get PMI data out throughout the week, but as the week rolls on the attention should turn to Jackson Hole, where Jay Powell takes centre stage. While this forum has been the setting for some bold changes to monetary policy in years gone by, it doesn’t feel like this time around we’ll be treated to such action. The USD remains front and centre this week – biased long, I acknowledge positioning is rich and could easily be vulnerable to profit taking into Powell’s speech. The marquee data to navigate: • China loan prime rate decision (21 Aug 11:15 AEST) – after the PBoC surprised the market and eased the Medium-Lending Facility last week, we should see the PBoC ease the 1- and 5-year Prime lending rate by 15bp respectively. Unless we see the Prime Rate left unchanged, Chinese equity markets will likely overlook any policy easing here and funds should continue to shy away from HK50, CHINAH, and CN50 longs. USDCNH finds support below 7.3000, but few are buying yuan with conviction other than to cover yuan shorts. • Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 1800 AEST) – the market eyes the manufacturing index at 42.6 (from 42.7) and services at 50.5 (50.9). A weaker services PMI, especially if the data prints below 50 (the expansion/contraction line) and we could see better EUR sellers, with the GER40 eyeing a break of the July lows of 15,500. Tactically warming to EURCAD shorts. • UK manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 18:30 AEST) – the market looks for manufacturing to come in at 45 (45.3) and services at 50.8 (51.5). GBP – the best performing major currency last week - could be sensitive to the services print. • US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 2345 AEST) – with much focus on China’s markets, US real rates and Jackson Hole, there is less concern about US growth metrics. As a result, the outcome of this may have a limited impact on the USD – it is still a risk to have on the radar. Jackson Hole Symposium – Fed chair Jay Powell will be the highlight of the conference (speaks Sat 00:05 AEST) – again, it’s still premature for Powell to declare victory in the Fed’s inflation fight and will likely emphasise there is still more work to be done. He may also spend time exploring a higher for longer mantra (for interest rates), with a focus on where they are modelling the neutral fed funds rate; possibly one for the PhDs and academics. Powell should re-affirm his view that rate cuts are not in their immediate thinking. From a risk management perspective, I am sensing Jackson Hole/Powell’s speech to be tilted on the hawkish side, and therefore modestly USD positive. Although given the bull run in the USD one could argue a hawkish Powell is largely priced. Other Jackson Hole speakers: • Fed members Goolsbee and Bowman (23 Aug 05:30 AEST) • Fed member Harker (25 Aug 23:00 AEST) • ECB president Lagarde (26 Aug 05:00 AEST) BRICS Summit in South Africa (Tuesday and Wednesday) – It’s hard to see this as market moving and a risk event for broad markets. However, with BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) accounting for 32% of global GDP and some 23 countries wanting to join the union, there will be increased focus on their expansion plans. Some have linked the BRICS to an acceleration of global de-dollarization, and while a global reliance on the USD will likely fall over time, the movement is glacial. A common currency for this union – while possibly getting headlines at this summit - is not something that seems viable anytime soon. Key corporate earnings: US - Nvidia report earnings (aftermarket) – many will recall the 24% rally in the share price in Q1 earnings (in May) and hope for something similar. Given the incredible run and heavy positioning, it may need something truly inspiring to blow the lights out. The market prices an implied move on earnings is 10.2%, so one for those who like a bit of movement in their trading. Australia – 68 ASX200 co’s report, including – BHP, Woodside Petroleum, Qantas, Northern Star and Wesfarmers
TVC:US10Y
by Pepperstone
15
Volatility stays elevated amid rising uncertaintyIt has been about twenty days since SPX marked a high near $4,607. Back then, we highlighted the importance of watching the Chinese stock market in order to get more clues about what could be waiting for the U.S. indices (specifically, we mentioned a rollover in the Chinese stocks and the spillover effect). Since then, SPX drifted slightly lower, approximately 3.7%. Meanwhile, Chinese indices dropped significantly more. In particular, Hang Seng Index erased more than 10%, and Shanghai Composite Index lost about 5%. While all these figures are not yet all doom and gloom, the weakness in the global markets should not be overlooked easily, especially as we are still seeing the situation in China unravel. Therefore, we are paying close attention to technical indicators like MACD, Stochastic, and RSI on a daily time frame. All three indicators are in a bearish constellation, with MACD approaching the midpoint. If it breaks below zero, it will greatly bolster the bearish case for SPX in the short term. In such a scenario, we would expect SPX to continue falling to the area between $4,250 and $4,350. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Interestingly, the volatility index is staying elevated. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
3
Breaking down into OPEX We head into monthly options expiry (OPEX) on Friday and that may influence flows and price action in the US500, but for now, the equity bears are starting to get some traction. We saw the bulls try and take price above Monday’s high (4493) but they failed and the index closed not just below the range lows, but through the 50-day MA. Outright shorts remain challenged as implied vol is still so low (the VIX sits at 16.46%) and China could easily bounce (such is the extreme negative sentiment), but traders are betting on downside and the index looks likely to test 4385 in the near term.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Pepperstone