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S&P500 Short and medium term sell potentialS&P500 (SPX) made a yearly High last week and a Higher High on the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom and guided the market out of the 2022 Bear Cycle. This Higher High opens up two sell possibilities one on the short and one on the medium term. The short term indicates that a Megaphone pattern similar to April 04 - May 04 is emerging that targets the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as part of its Lower Low. That would also test the Internal Higher Lows trend-line, so it makes sense to short and target 4320. This is where we will attempt a medium-term buy targeting 4640 (March 29 2022 High) but will only hold it as long as candles keep closing above the 1D MA50. If even one 1D candle closes below, it will activate the medium-term sell possibility and we will sell targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as well at 4150, similar to December 22 2022. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
5
S&P500 Will attempt to find Support near the 1day MA50S&P500 is so far on a flat 1day candle after a series of 3 red. That keeps the price inside a Channel Up since March 13th and of course inside the longer term Channel Up since the October 13th market bottom. The index should seek support on the 1day MA50 as it has done since March 30th, so that's a short term sell opportunity to 4330. Consequently that will be the new Higher Low (bottom) on the Rising Support of the narrow Channel Up, hence a buy opportunity targeting Resistance A at 4500. If the 1day candle gets closed under the 1day MA50 though, sell and target the bottom of the wide Channel Up and the 1day MA200 at 4150. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheCryptagon
Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JULY 10, 2023Key News: USA - FOMC Member Daly Speaks USA - FOMC Member Mester Speaks USA - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks UK - BoE Gov Bailey Speaks US stocks closed the week on a downward trend as investors carefully analyzed a range of data released earlier in the month. This data instilled confidence in the stability of the US economy, leading to expectations of prolonged elevated interest rates. Throughout the week, equity markets encountered challenges stemming from positive economic data, sparking speculations of a longer period of higher interest rates. After fluctuating and contemplating the potential for rate cuts later in the year, it seems that the markets have come to terms with the idea that the economic cycle will unfold over an extended timeframe. Consequently, the S&P 500 recorded a 1.2% decline. S&P 500 daily chart The Dow concluded the week with a loss and closed lower on Friday as traders assessed a monthly jobs report for June that fell short of expectations, ending a streak of 15 months of meeting estimates. Nonetheless, there remains anticipation that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a rate hike later this month. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index daily chart The US economy added 209,000 jobs in June, which fell short of the projected 225,000 and represented a substantial decline from the 306,000 jobs added in the previous month. This figure indicates the slowest pace of job creation since December 2020, raising concerns about the overall strength of the labor market. US Nonfarm Payrolls Despite the disappointing job growth figures, there was a positive aspect to the report with regards to wage growth. Average hourly earnings in June increased by 4.4%, surpassing the estimated 4.2%. This suggests that workers are experiencing higher wages, which could potentially contribute to increased consumer spending and economic growth. While the market still expects a rate hike in July, there is speculation among investors that the cooling labor market might deter the Federal Reserve from implementing further rate hikes beyond July. This sentiment is echoed in a note from Morgan Stanley, stating that the current data may not meet the criteria for the Fed to deliver a hike in September. In other news, the US-listed shares of Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) experienced an 8% rise following the announcement of a $984 million fine imposed by Chinese authorities on Ant Group. This marks the conclusion of Ant Group's extensive regulatory restructuring process, which has been closely monitored by investors and industry observers. These developments in the job market and the regulatory landscape have contributed to a dynamic and evolving market environment, where investors are carefully evaluating the implications for monetary policy and the performance of specific companies like Alibaba. Alibaba stock daily chart As the second quarter of the 2023 earnings season begins, analysts are anticipating a consensus that S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) will decline by 9% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to stagnant sales growth and margin compression, highlighting the challenges faced by companies. However, there is a particular focus on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on companies, given the significant developments in the tech sector this year. The extent to which S&P 500 companies can effectively leverage AI to generate additional profits remains uncertain. Therefore, investors will closely examine management guidance and commentary to identify the companies that have the ability to enable, scale, and benefit from AI in the long term. Certain companies have already presented revenue and earnings outlooks that surpassed expectations, instilling confidence in their ability to navigate the current landscape. For example, Micron Technology (MU) provided optimistic revenue and earnings outlooks, while NVIDIA (NVDA) delivered significantly higher-than-consensus sales guidance for the second quarter. However, the shine of AI has been somewhat dulled by potential restrictions on the export of AI chips to China, which poses a notable risk for companies operating in this sector. Policymakers in the G4 countries, including the Japanese yen (JPY), have shown remarkable consistency in their approach, leading to limited potential for the US dollar to appreciate against other major currencies. With interest rates and equities experiencing fluctuations, there is less room for significant adjustments in foreign exchange (FX) markets. The European Central Bank (ECB) has closely aligned its approach with that of the Federal Reserve, sometimes even surpassing it in terms of rhetoric. This has prompted a reevaluation of the short-term outlook for the Eurozone, despite slower economic growth. The ECB's singular focus on combating lower inflation has provided support for the euro. However, there are limits to this approach, as extreme measures to control inflation may only be effective for a certain period, particularly when the economy is already experiencing a technical recession. If the trend persists, the more hawkish members of the ECB may adjust their stance, potentially leading to a decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate back to 1.07. EUR/USD daily chart In the upcoming week, investors will be keeping a close eye on a range of important economic indicators and events. One key highlight is the release of the consumer and producer price indexes, which provide crucial insights into inflationary pressures in the economy. These reports will be closely scrutinized as inflation remains a key concern for market participants. Additionally, the import and export price indexes will offer further indications of global trade dynamics and the impact of tariffs and trade policies on prices. This data can provide valuable insights into the health of the international trade sector and its potential effects on the broader economy. Investors will also be closely monitoring the Michigan consumer sentiment and expectations report, as consumer sentiment is an important gauge of consumer confidence and spending patterns. This data can provide valuable insights into the strength of the consumer-driven sectors of the economy. Furthermore, speeches from various Federal Reserve officials, including Barr, Mester, Daly, Bostic, Bullard, Kashkari, and Waller, will be closely watched for any hints or signals regarding the central bank's monetary policy stance. These speeches can provide valuable insights into the thinking of key policymakers and the potential future direction of interest rates. Overall, the combination of economic data releases and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will shape market expectations and influence investor sentiment in the coming week. Market participants will be analyzing these indicators and events for potential impacts on monetary policy decisions and overall market trends.
by FOREXN1
12
A traders’ playbook: looking to Japan for volatility With the US nonfarm payrolls behind us, we look to the US CPI report as the next big risk for markets. Ahead of this, we’ve seen USD sellers start to dominate with EURUSD eyeing a re-test of the 22 June high of 1.1012 and USDJPY 300 pips off its recent high. We also see GBPUSD looking poised to test the 1.2850 highs, so one for the breakout traders, especially with UK jobs/wages in play this week. Gyrations in the US (and DM) bond markets have started to impact equity sentiment, especially US 5-year real rates (DFII5 on TradingView) rising to the highest levels since 2008, at a time when the G4 central bank balance sheet is falling. We continue to watch this dynamic, while micro factors may start to play a role, with Q2 earnings rolling in. Commentaries from CEOs on expected demand, input prices and how the cost of capital is impacting are a few themes to focus on. The US500 rests on 4400 with the shorts eyeing a test of the 26 June low of 4329 – a break here, especially if it coincides with the VIX index rising above 18%, should get traders in front of the screens and taking down the timeframes. We also saw the return on the JPY, with shorts squaring as the carry trade was partly unwound - higher G3 bond and rates volatility a clear consideration here, with the MOVE index pushing to 130. We also saw Japan's data flow come in hot, notably in the TANKAN report which showed Japanese corporates expect inflation (in 5 years) to exceed 2% for the fourth quarter in a row. We see Japan's 10yr swaps rising to 60bp, and 10yr JGBs to 42.8bp and the fact funds are shorting Japanese bonds could be telling ahead of the BoJ meeting on 28 July. Japan takes centre focus – if the market genuinely believed the BoJ were to tweak its uber dovish monetary policy setting it could cause real gyrations through markets. We watch China data ahead of the July Politburo meeting, although, with elevated expectations of stimulus to be announced during this key event, one could easily feel that bad data could easily be forgiven. Central bank meetings in NZ and Canada may get some attention – although it’s the BoC meeting, which looks the far livelier affair. Rearview alpha plays - what worked best: • G10 and EM FX play of last week: short CADJPY (-1.5% last week), short USDHUF (-2.6% on the week) • Equity indices play of last week: Short FRA40 (-3.9%), short EU Stoxx 50 (-3.7%) • Commodity plays of last week – Long SpotCrude (+4.6%), short XAUGBP (-0.8% on the week) – lower for four consecutive weeks. • Equity plays for the radar – CSL (AU) – shares have fallen in 9 of 10 trading sessions. RIVN (Rivian Auto US) – shares have gained in 8 consecutive trading sessions. JP Morgan – commence the US Q2 corp. earnings on Friday. Marquee events for traders to navigate: US Core CPI inflation (Wed 22:30 AEST) – the marquee event risk of the week. The consensus is weighted towards core CPI at 0.3% MoM / 5% YoY (from 5.3%), with the economist’s range of estimates seen between 5.1% to 4.8%. Headline CPI is expected to come in at 0.3% MoM / 3.1% YoY (from 4%). The Cleveland Fed Nowcast model sees core CPI running at 5.1% YoY. With risky assets sensitive to moves in US bond yields, a core CPI print at/above 5.3% is the ‘pain trade’ and would likely see US bond yields rise further and risk taken down. While it may lower the prospect of a hike from the Fed in the July FOMC meeting, it would take a truly weak number to see market pricing for a 25bp hike fall below 50%. UK jobs and wages report (Tues 16:00 AEST) – traders will recall the red-hot April wage data which contributed to the BoE hiking rates by 50bp (in the June BoE meeting), so GBP and UK100 traders will be watching this data point closely. The market expects weekly earnings (ex-bonus) 3M/YoY to come in at 7.1% (from 7.2%). Rates markets have priced a 76% chance of a 50bp hike at the 3 Aug BoE meeting, with peak bank rate expectations at 6.41%. We also see that GBPUSD has rallied in the last 10 consecutive wage reports. US 2Q corporate earnings – JPM, J&J, Citi and Wells Fargo get us going with earnings on Friday (14 July), with JPM’s numbers getting the full attention of traders – the implied move on the day of earnings for JPM (derived from options) is 1.3%, with the bulls looking for a firm break of the range highs of $147. While we watch the price action in the US big US money centres, keep an eye on the small end of town and the regional banks – the KRE ETF is a good proxy here. Bank of Canada meeting (Thurs 00:00 AEST) – this is a ‘live’ meeting that could result in some sharp movement in the CAD – after the recent Canadian jobs report, retail sales and core CPI report, the market is skewed to a 25bp hike to take rates to 5%, with the market pricing a hike at 68% chance. We also see 16 of 24 economists calling for the hike. CAD longs preferred, with USDCAD targeting 1.3200. RBA gov Lowe speaks (13:10 AEST) – there is little Aussie tier 1 data to trouble traders this week, so RBA gov Lowe and China data get the attention. Rates markets price a 62% chance of a 25bp hike at the 1 August RBA meeting, so Gov Lowe’s outlook may influence that pricing. The Aussie jobs report (20 July) and Q2 CPI (26 July) remain the big event risks for AUD traders that could decide a hike on 1 Aug. China June CPI/PPI (Mon 11:30 AEST) – the market sees CPI at +0.2% and PPI inflation at -5% (from -4.6%). USDCNH looks to consolidate between 7.2800 and 7.2185, where a break could influence G10 FX pairs, with a higher USDCNH likely acting as a headwind for AUD and NZD. China June trade data (Thurs no set time) – China’s trade data is hard to consider for one’s risk management as there is no set time and typically has a low initial impact on Chinese equity markets or the yuan. As we look for more stimulus to be announced at the July Politburo it feels as though the market will limit the reaction. The current consensus is for China’s June exports to fall -10%, while imports are called down -4.4%. We also get China new yuan loans/aggregate financing through the week (no set time or date), and while closely watched it is unlikely a market mover. US PPI inflation (Thurs 22:30 AEST) – the market looks for 0.4% YoY on headline PPI and 2.6% YoY on core PPI – it’s hard to see this being a big market mover unless we get an outlier print (vs consensus). The PPI print should shape our understanding of the important core PCE deflator (released 28 July). RBNZ meeting (Wed 12:00 AEST) – the market sees this as a low-risk event with all 15 economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) seeing NZ interest rates on hold, with the NZD swaps market pricing just 3bps. AUDNZD gets attention and looks to have put in a short-term bottom, with longs preferred for a move to the 200-day MA at 1.0850. University of Michigan sentiment – the market expects the sentiment survey to increase to 65.5 (from 64.4). We also look at the respondents’ views on US 1-year inflation expectations, with the consensus eyeing 3.1% (from 3.3%), while the 5-10yr inflation expectations are eyed to be unchanged at 3%. Fed speakers – Daly, Mester, Bostic, Barkin, Kashkari, Waller BoE speakers – Bailey (Tues 01:00 AEST and Wed 18:00 AEST) RBA speakers – Gov Lowe speaks (Wed 13:10 AEST) ECB speakers – Villeroy, de Cos, Vujcic, Lane
by Pepperstone
S&P500 has activated a short term, at least, sell sequence.S&P500 has a 3 day bearish streak. Both medium and long term patterns are Channel Ups. The medium term has the MA50 (1d) as the Rising Support and the long term the MA200 (1d). At the moment, it seems that a Megaphone consolidation such as April-May is in order. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. 2. Buy at 4310 (bottom of the medium term Channel Up). 3. Sell if a (1d) candle closes under the MA50 (1d). 4. Buy at 4130 (bottom of the long term Channel Up). Targets: 1. 4310 (bottom of the medium term Channel Up). 2. 4640 (Resistance 2). 3. 4130 (bottom of the long term Channel Up). 4. 4640 (Resistance 2). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is exactly at the bottom of its Channel Up. A break under it, is a sell confirmation. 2. There have been two -9% corrections since December 2022. A new one would push the price straight to the MA200 (1d) which is intact since March 24th. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
5
Lots of data coming, questions over unemployment and servicesThis week, a barrage of U.S. data releases will help to shape investor sentiment. ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI are on today's schedule. Factory orders, FOMC minutes, and API crude oil stock change will follow on Wednesday. Then, on Thursday, imports, exports, ADP employment change, initial jobless claims, S&P Global Composite PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Services Employment, ISM Services PMI, and JOLTs job openings will be in focus. Finally, on Friday, average hourly earnings, non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and participation rate will be revealed (remember, we named only the most important data releases and not all that are scheduled for this week). As the unemployment rate rose from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.7% in May 2023, we are interested to see whether there was further growth in the metric. If yes, that will be a negative sign for the U.S. economy. The same will apply if there is any weakness in the services sector, which has been (so far) holding fairly strong compared to manufacturing. However, if the data will come in as expected (or better), it will likely provide more lift for the market. We will update our thoughts after today’s release. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX, two simple moving averages, and horizontal support/resistance levels. If SPX manages to hold above Resistance 1, it will be bullish. But if it fails, it will raise our concern about the rally’s breakdown. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the unemployment rate in the United States since September 1998. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
9
S&P500: One last pull back is possible before a new High.The S&P500 is pulling back following yesterday's July 4th holiday and seems to have reached a temporary top similar to May 1st. That was nearly a 1 month consolidation phase, which after testing the 1D MA50, it initiated the new bullish phase. Technically that was also the Higher Low of the four month Channel Up pattern. The 1D technicals remain bullish (RSI = 67.005, MACD = 54.870, ADX = 30.096) and as long as they do, buying is favored. We expect this short term correction to test the S1 (4,330) and then rebound, which we will buy, to the R1 (TP = 4,500), which was the April 21st 2022 High. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
3
A trader’s week ahead playbook – just roll with it Risky assets continue to climb the wall of worry, but the reality is we’ve seen conditions ripe for equity appreciation. Granted, the global central bank balance sheet is falling but the rate of change is contained, and US bank reserves are not falling as fast as feared. Liquidity is currently not the bearish catalyst for equity drawdown that many thought it might be. Economic data continues to frustrate those positioned portfolios for a recession - US consumer confidence, new home sales, and durable goods all come in hotter-than-expected. At the same time, US core PCE inflation was a touch softer at 4.6%, with softer core inflation prints also seen in Japan (Tokyo), Europe and Canada. It seems good economic news is truly good news for stocks and high beta FX – case in point, on the week, we saw the market’s expectations for the peak fed funds rate (currently seen in November) increasing by 7bp to 5.4%. Amid tighter expected Fed policy, US 2yr Treasuries gained 15bp on the week (to 4.89%) and yet despite the rise in bond yields the NAS100 gained 2.2% - closing out the best first half ever, with a remarkable gain of 39%. We’re also seeing bullish breakouts in the US500, and EU equities, with the SPA35 breaking out, while the skew is risk is that the FRA40 retests the 17 April highs. As we see in the calendar below, there is a heavy focus in the week ahead on the labour market. Unlike recent months, as long as the growth and jobs data stay firm and highlights that a US recession is a 2024 story, and with inflation grinding to target, then the equity (and risk) bulls will continue to buy dips. The risk bulls will want a solid nonfarm payrolls report, but any goodwill will be conditional on average hourly earnings (AHE) holding below 4.3% In FX markets, the USD has been frustrating and just when the bulls we’re hoping for a break of 103.38 resistance (in the USD index), the sellers reversed the goodwill. We remain on intervention watch in Japan, notably with the trade-weighted JPY falling 0.5% on the week, and well below levels since in Sept 2022, when the MoF bought Y2.8t. We’ve seen clear signs the PBoC has reached its tolerance level on USDCNY and is pushing back. USDCNH remains central to all USD moves. Let’s see if the new month brings a new trend – but knowing that the NAS100 has rallied in the last 15 consecutive months of July, it feels like the pain trade is still to the upside and the odds are skewed for higher levels – an open mind will always serve us well in trading, but for now, I am happy to just roll with it. Tactical play of the week : Long NAS100 (stop orders) above 15,220. A new month, but nothing changes – Ride the momentum, and the strong get stronger. Rearview alpha plays: • G10 and EM FX play of last week: Long NOKSEK (+1.8% last week), long USDRUB (+5.4%) • Equity indices play of last week: Long SPA35 (+3.5%) – to the highest levels since Feb 2020 • Commodity plays of last week – short corn (-16%), long Cocoa +4.6% (strong uptrend) • Equity plays for the radar – Bega Cheese (BGA.AU) – shares have fallen for 8 days in a row. Apple (eyeing $200 with a market cap over $3t). The key event risks for the week ahead RBA meeting (Tuesday 14:30 AEST) – It's hard to recall a time when making a call on an RBA policy decision was so finely balanced. One could make just as good a case to hike, as they could to hold. The economist community are evenly split (14 of 27 economists are calling for a pause), and Aussie rate futures are pricing a 40% chance of a hike. Given this dynamic, the RBA may lean on the path of least regret and hike. On the week I see AUDUSD trading a 0.6750 to 0.6580 range. AUDNZD is the cleanest play on the RBA meeting and relative policy divergence, and on the week, I would look to sell rallies into 1.0950/60. US ISM manufacturing (Tuesday 00:00 AEST) – the market expects a slight improvement in the pace of decline with the consensus set at 47.2 (vs 46.9 last month). We may need a reading above 50 to get the USD fired up, although a read above 50 would certainly surprise. Good data seems to be a positive for risky assets despite the move higher in bond yields, so expect equity to rally on a stronger-than-expected print. US weekly jobless claims (Thursday 22:30 AEST) – The economist consensus is for 245k weekly claims. Last week, we saw a strong reaction to the lower-than-expected claims print, so we know the market is looking at this data point closely. That said, we’d need a big increase/decrease from last week’s print (of 239,000) to move the dial this time around. JOLTS job openings (Friday 00:00 AEST) – the consensus here is for job openings to fall to 9.98m (from 10.1m). A pullback below 10m openings would be further relief for risky assets. A big upside surprise may see US treasuries rally (yields lower) and USDJPY should find sellers. US ISM services (Friday 00:00 AEST) – the market consensus is for slightly stronger growth in the US service sector at 51.3 (50.3). Again, we look for extreme reads vs consensus, but above 52.0 would really push back on the idea of a near-term economic slowdown. US non-farm payrolls (Friday 22:30 AEST) – the marquee economic data point of the week, where the market consensus is for 225k net jobs (the economist’s range is seen between 263k and 124k). The unemployment rate is eyed to fall back to 3.6% (3.7%), with average hourly earnings seen at 4.2% YoY. The form guide suggests the risk is for a number above 200k, having beaten expectations for 14 straight NFP prints. A big upside surprise should see USDJPY rally hard and push the BoJ/MoF a step closer to JPY intervention. Canada employment report (Friday 22:30 AEST) – the consensus is for 20k jobs to have been created, and the unemployment rate to lift a touch to 5.3%. With 13bp of hikes priced for the 12 July Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting, the outcome of the jobs report could influence that pricing and by extension the CAD. There has clear indecision on the USDCAD daily of late, subsequently, I would look to buy/sell a break of 1.3285 or 1.3116. Mexico CPI (Fri 22:00 AEST) – those that sit in the camp that Banxico cut rates in Nov/Dec will be closely watching the CPI print. The market expects a further dip in headline inflation to 5.07% and core inflation to 6.87% (from 7.39%). Carry traders are still drawn to the MXN and happy to jump on any weakness, subsequently, USDMXN seems likely to test the recent lows of 17.0227. Central bank speakers ECB – Villeroy, Guindos, Lagarde (Sat 02:45 AEST) BoE – Catherine Mann (Sat 00:30 AEST), Bailey (Sunday 17:30 AEST) US – FOMC minutes (Thurs 04:00 AEST), Williams and Logan
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
1
US 500 Analysis. Good opportunity.Hello Everyone. I want share my idea about US 500. On that chart we have pretty bullish trend which is going up well. I think who trade with trend, at the moment this is the best moment to open their long positions, but also we need to be carefully. Trend is bullish but chart show us Head And Shoulders which is bearish movement. in my opinion we need some confirmations, this is aggressive rejection from Fibonacci and support LVL, and also brake this little resistance which have us at 4385. This week we will see actually if us500 can continue bullish movement, but I think its still bullish. BE PATIENT!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by elmakacho
S&P500 Holding the 4hour MA50 is criticalS&P500 / US500 crossed back over the 4hour MA50 and so far today is holding it. For this level to stay as Support is critical as a 4hour candle close under it can delay the uptrend and send it to the 4hour MA200, 1day MA50 near the Rising Support. In that case sell and target 4300. As long as the 4hour MA50 holds, be bullish and target Resistance A at 4500. The 4hour MACD is on a Bullish Cross, favoring a buy. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
6
S&P500 Short term sell signalS&P500 is pulling back after the March Channel Up topped on an overbought RSI (1d). The MA50 (1d) has been intact since March 29th and is the support of this strong uptrend. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price and/ or the June 16th High. 2. Buy on the bottom of the Channel Up at 4310. 3. Sell if the price closes a (1d) candle under the MA50 (1d). Targets: 1. 4310 (bottom of the Chanenl Up). 2. 4640 (Resistance 2). 3. 4110 (bottom of the long term Channel Up). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is on a Channel Up indicating that the momentum on a 3 month basis remains bullish. If it breaks below, it will confirm the sell signal. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
15
S&P500: First buy conditions following the top are emerging.The S&P500 is close to a -2.89% pull back, same as the April 26th, with the 1D technicals turning neutral (RSI = 56.566, MACD = 43.450, ADX = 27.595) for the first time since June 1st. This is a standard technical pull back inside the March Channel Up that is aiming at the bottom of the Channel and the 1D MA50, which is untouched since May 4th. We will use both 4,330 and 4,270 for a double buy entry, targeting the R1 (TP = 4,500). Pay attention also at how the 1D RSI is on the HL trendline since March, an additional buy signal. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
9
A trader’s week ahead playbook: playing defence into quarter-endAfter a dramatic weekend in geopolitical news flow, we revert to areas more closely aligned with our expertise; the ebbs and flow of economic growth dynamic, inflation, central bank liquidity and month-/quarter-end flows. To set a platform for the week ahead – The USD rallied on 4 of the past 5 days (gaining 0.6%), while it was a rolling sea of red in our core equity indices last week - the HK50 (-4.7%) and GER40 (-3.2%) faring worst on a weekly percentage basis. US equity indices are grinding lower into quarter-end, but it’s the US small-cap plays that need to be on the radar with the US2000 the weakest index – US regional banks once again in the spotlight and finding sellers easy to come by, and the KRE ETF now targets $36.00. Banks take a central focus US Treasury Sectary Yellen’s comments that she expects further consolidation within the banks, while the higher cost of deposits is impacting bank profitability have put these institutions back on traders’ radar - we subsequently mark the Q2 US earning calendar on the map once again when JPM kick off proceedings on 14 July. We can cast our net outside of the US and see banks on a global basis remain key shorting candidates. Notably in the UK and Australia, where Lloyds and NatWest are in freefall, and many are questioning the asset quality and lofty ROE guidance of these institutions amid the unfolding UK mortgage and rental crisis. For AUS200 traders, BoQ and ANZ look particularly vulnerable to further downside, although, tactically, I would consider long CBA/short ANZ as a pairs trade. Will the GBP be impacted by reduced growth expectations? With UK banks in focus, on the data side, there will be focus on the Nationwide house price data (-4% YoY decline expected) and mortgage approvals (+49k in May) this coming week – the market has priced another 50bp hike from the BoE on 3 August, with a peak bank rate of 6.2% by February 2024. However, despite calls that the GBP should now face headwinds as the currency morphs from carry to a relative growth play, we’re not seeing that play out in the price action. Granted, the UK gilt curve has collapsed but GBPAUD, GBPNOK and GBPNZD all look like they’ve got further upside here. I’d be looking for GBPUSD to test 1.2680, where this could run into buyers here. In the US we’re seeing signs of reduced system liquidity with bank reserves falling $102b last week and starting to do more of the heavy lifting in supporting the massive US Treasury TGA rebuild. We get further significant US T-bill and bond issuance this week, and we should see an increased decline in the Fed’s US Treasury holdings, but with rebalancing flows a key factor let's see if this issuance has any impact on risk assets. US data to navigate The US economic data is mostly tier 2 releases – durable goods, regional manufacturing, new home sales and consumer confidence. Core PCE is the highlight (due Friday at 22:30 AEST) and the market sees an unchanged read at 4.7% - again, this could affect pricing for the 26 July FOMC meeting, where the market prices 18bp of hikes here. The USD has found signs of form with the DXY pushing 103. The USD bid a function of falling growth momentum in China and Europe, so the US data points, EU consumer confidence and inflation, and China’s manufacturing/services PMI data (Friday 11:30 AEST) need close attention. It seems the market just can't get enthused by China’s current range of stimulus measures and we see USDCNH another FX cross-rate that has become a trend-followers dream and trades north of 7.2100 – let's see if the PBoC start to push back on the move this week (through its daily CNY fix), as higher levels should accelerate USD buying vs the AUD and the EUR. Staying long USDJPY, for now USDJPY remains well traded by clients, and eyes a move into 144.00 and as we posted last week is coming ever closer to potential jawboning from the BoJ/MoF (pepperstone.com) – traders have pointed to the elevated RSI’s, however, this is not a major concern for me, as it’s the rate of change that the MoF look at more closely. We also see the price at a 4.3% premium to the 50-day MA which is not wholly extended, and where a 5%-7% premium (to the 50-day MA) would be where I’d have a higher conviction of mean reversion trades playing out. Aussie CPI to influence the July RBA pricing In Australia we get monthly CPI and retail sales this week – the market prices a 40% chance of the RBA hiking by 25bp on 4 July, so this data could easily influence that pricing. There will be a concerted groan from households if we see CPI (due Wed at 11:30 AEST) fail to come down to the consensus call of 6.1% (from 6.8%). If we look at the economist’s range of estimates we see the distribution ranging from 6.9% to 5.6%, which is incredibly well dispersed. A 5-handle should see hikes priced out of the July RBA meeting and see the AUD under pressure. On the central bank speeches, there will be focus placed on the Sintra Conference where Powell, Lagarde, Ueda and Bailley will be speaking. The case for gold upside Commodities get a close look too – my preference for gold is to place sell-stop orders below $1912, with the aim to play bearish momentum into and below the figure. Gold bulls will want a close back above $1938, and if the growth concerns that we saw late last week extend into the new week, then gold should benefit as a hedge, but we’d also need to see inflationary pressure ease. Crude found buyers into the range lows of $67.00 – huge support and one that should be on all radars, especially those who want to scalp off big levels.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
Dow Jonex Index (US30): Top-Down Analysis & Trading Plan Dow Jones Index is testing a peculiar zone of confluence on a daily: we see a perfect intersection between a horizontal support and 382 retracement of the last bullish impulse. Analyzing 4H time frame, I see a falling wedge pattern. To catch a pullback with a confirmation, I suggest looking for a bullish breakout of the resistance of the wedge. 4H candle close above will confirm a violation. A bullish continuation will be expected to 33970 / 34040 levels then. Alternatively, a bearish breakout of the underlined blue zone will push the price lower. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by VasilyTrader
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