S&P500 Rising Wedge's short-term pull-back to the 1D MA50The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us the expected pull-back and buy entry within the Rising Wedge as per our last week analysis (chart below):
The long-term structure is a Channel Up, so plan your trades in case of a Rising Wedge break-out. On the short-term, we expect the price to pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the bottom of the Rising Wedge at 4140. As long as the pattern holds, buy and target the top at 4250. If the top of the Wedge breaks, target 4295m just shy off the long-term Resistance of 4327 (August 15 2022 High).
We will sell on the medium-term only if the price breaks below Support Zone 1 and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), above Support Zone 2 and at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up. The 1D RSI Triangle pattern can give an early signal with regards to the direction in case of a break-out.
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Us500
And now some cautionary chartsTraders,
Though my post yesterday reflected more bullish sentiment, I would be remiss not to acknowledge a few of the contrarian indications that I am also spotting on various charts which suggest we could still experience more of a drawback in crypto before Bitcoin crosses to the topside of that all-pervasive $30,500 resistance overhead. Let’s take a look at a few of the charts which seem to suggest this possibility.
#1. DXY
The dollar is now expected to continue moving up in strength. I see the next line of resistance at 105.6. Dollar UP + VIX UP = Stocks DOWN (generally).
#2. VIX
The fear index (VIX) is at a multi-year low. Considering all that is going on in the world recently, it is highly likely that the VIX will spike again soon taking us back above our 200 day moving average. Dollar UP + VIX UP = Stocks DOWN (generally).
#3. US500
I have been using our US500 chart to pattern what the rest of the market might do on a swing scale timeframe. I have been calling for a break down from the ascending red wedge. Should this occur, crypto is likely to follow.
#4. Bitcoin CME Futures
A new gap was created below us on the Bitcoin CME futures chart. 99% of all gaps are filled …usually sooner rather than later.
#5. Bitcoin (see current chart above)
Yesterday, I pointed out more than a few bullish indications for Bitcoin. But I also want to remind you that we’re not out of the woods yet.
One, I already mentioned that we have not defeated our overhead resistance, that big orange area above us along with the $30,500 mark.
Two, we have not confirmed a move above our orange neckline area.
Three, I was expecting more of a test in that green area below us which is the neckline of our larger Cup and Handle pattern. I was surprised that we did not get more of a test in that area. But, we still may.
I do not plan on selling my current trades, which are all in the profit, just yet. But should BTC dip back below that black trendline it is currently using for support, I just may.
Stew
Bullish breakout invalidated, divergence between SPX and HSIYesterday, the S&P 500 Index succumbed to market pressures and fell below the critical resistance level of $4,200. By doing so, SPX invalidated a bullish breakout above the narrow range (the zone between $4,050 and $4,200) and retraced very close to the 20-day SMA. This development might suggest exhaustion for the rally, but it is still too early for bears to call a victory. Therefore, to confirm the continuation on the downside, we would like to see the price break below the 20-day SMA and test support near $4,100 (and later near $4,075 and $4,050). On the contrary, to support a bullish case, we would like to see SPX breaking above the narrow range. In regard to technical indicators bolstering a bearish case, we would like to see RSI, Stochastic, and MACD (on the daily time frame) decline along with the price (and simultaneously, DM+ and DM- converging). To support a bullish view, we would seek divergence between DM+ and DM- and reversal (to the upside) in RSI, MACD, and Stochastic.
Besides these developments, we want to bring attention to another subject: the Chinese stock market. A big emphasis was placed on China’s reopening in early 2023 after more than two years of lockdowns. In fact, the main narrative in the media was that this reopening would spur demand and help to divert the economic slowdown in the West. Consequently, we saw a rally in the U.S. equities coinciding with a slight rebound in some economic activity (but with the still relatively mixed big picture). During this time, we saw a high correlation between SPX and Hang Seng persist. However, in the last four weeks, Hang Seng has been increasingly diverging from SPX. That catches our attention as the excuse of recovery in China was used to prop up the Western markets, but now the Chinese stocks are seemingly rolling over (with Hang Seng losing 16% already from its 2023 high). We believe that if the selloff in the Chinese market continues, it will likely weigh on the thesis about recovery and dodging the recession.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. The orange line represents the Hang Seng index. A strong positive correlation can be observed between SPX and HSI in the period between November 2022 and April 2023.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US500✔️ Tags New Yearly High ✔️ US500 is expected to rise
✔️ Recommended to consider buying from the balance and premium level 4.184 & 4.172
S&P500: Upside limited to the August 2022 High. Buy the pull bacThe S&P500 index is approaching the top of the Megaphone pattern inside the wider Channel Up. The 1D time frame is bullish technically (RSI = 59.471, MACD = 22.900, ADX = 16.182) but only moderately. If the price crosses over the Megaphone, we will buy the breakout and target the top of the Channel Up (TP = 4,295). If not, we will buy the pull back near the 1D MA50, which is supporting since March 30th and target the R2 and August 16th High (TP = 4,330).
If the index though crosses and closes under the 1D MA50, we will sell and target the S1 (TP = 4,045) and further closing under the S1, will target the bottom of the Megaphone and 1D MA200 (TP = 3,985).
Prior idea:
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NASDAQ-100 AND SP-500 NAVIGATING FRAGILE MARKETS- T-bills to be issued by the end of Q3 drain liquidity and have an impact similar to a 25 basis point increase in benchmark rates.
- Further market extension is challenging due to possible overtightening.
- Unemployment data is a significant turning point.
- Unsatisfactory market breadth.
- Significant divergence between Nasdaq and Treasury 2-year.
Hello everyone,
Today I present a couple of ideas regarding the fragility of the Nasdaq 100 and the consequences for the S&P 500.
Firstly, I want to remind you that once the US debt agreement is reached, approximately 1 trillion dollars' worth of short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) will enter the market by the end of Q3, resulting in an inevitable liquidity drain from the stock market. According to industry reports, this issuance of government bonds may act as an additional 25 basis point increase in Fed rates. Furthermore, following the bank failures in recent months, we can expect further deterioration in the credit market, also comparable to a 25 basis point increase in Fed rates.
This leads us to a potential overtightening by the Fed due to the indirect rate increase described above. It will, therefore, be challenging for the markets to grow solidly due to the likely resulting economic contraction. Additionally, recent reports indicate that inflation is decreasing less than expected, and further rate increases by the Fed may be necessary, as dictated by their econometric models.
The unemployment data for this week will be crucial. If it indicates a potential rise in unemployment, we may see a pause in rate hikes, thus mitigating the possibility of a sustained market collapse in the short term. Otherwise, further credit tightening will be necessary, which will have a negative impact on the markets. If another Fed rate hike materializes, we could witness the liquidation of long positions built over time based on optimism about potential rate cuts at the end of the year. Without a year-end rate cut, the possibility of a credit squeeze continuing into 2024 arises, which would be detrimental to heavily indebted companies that will have to consider refinancing ongoing operations at much higher than expected rates. This will have a negative impact on future corporate profits.
We now observe the deterioration in the breadth of the index, displaying a negative divergence with three descending peaks. For the tech rally to continue, we will need further advances in AI-related stocks, the last line of defense before a correction (in the chart, market breadth is indicated in gray, calculated as the percentage of stocks above their 200-period moving average).
Finally, I would like to mention the significant divergence between the 2-year Treasury and the Nasdaq-100 since the beginning of May (in the chart, the 2-year Treasury is represented in cyan, with the axis inverted). I believe that this divergence will be corrected, but since a reduction in 2-year Treasury yields is unlikely, the possibility of a correction in the index remains.
Nice trading,
Cheers
US500: The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear subscribers ,
Please, find my technical outlook for US500 below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 4209.1
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 4259.0
My Stop Loss - 4183.6
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
US500: Bullish Continuation
The analysis of the US500 chart clearly shows us that the pair is finally about to go up due to the rising pressure from the buyers.
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NASDAQ PIVOT AROUND THE CORNERHello everyone,
The ascent of the past few weeks driven by major tech and AI stocks is coming to an end. There may be a further rise up to 4300 S&P500 future and 15000 Nasdaq 100 future, but it won't last long. The idea is that the impasse on the US public debt has made it favorable for capital to move out of the short-term government bond market, waiting to reenter after the issuance of new bonds following the debt ceiling increase. This has led such capital to seek refuge and profit in big tech and AI, supported by excellent earnings, promising guidance, and low operational debt, making them less risky in case of default and interest rate hikes.
Therefore, it can be expected that after the debt ceiling increase and the issuance of new short-term bonds with higher yields, the above-mentioned capital may reenter the treasury market, triggering a gradual sell-off in the tech sector due to the overbought condition and profit-taking. It should also be noted that the issuance of new bonds will drain liquidity from the system, leading to a correction in high-risk markets, namely a liquidity drain from equities.
In short, the recent surge in tech and AI over the past weeks is partly due to investors' high expectations for these stocks, but also, and above all, due to the need for capital from the government bond market to flee in anticipation of the debt discussion, and then reenter with higher yields by purchasing newly issued government bonds (the new yield upon issuance is obviously higher than in the past due to the increase in reference rates).
In conclusion, a plausible scenario is that futures reach 4300 for S&P500 and 15000 for Nasdaq100, and then correct downwards with the extended downward leg reaching 3800 and 11000 respectively.
Nice trading,
cheers
US500 What Next? BUY!
My dear subscribers ,
US500 looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 4197.0
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 4242.1
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Spx 🌊Salutations,
At this present moment, I find it challenging to elucidate the precise reasoning as to why the S&P 500 was poised to recede back to the melancholy depths of the pandemic lows.
Nevertheless, I can confidently postulate the resurgence of a risk-on environment in the aftermath.
ideally as we approach the yuletide chill of Christmas Eve at the conclusion of this present year,
I cast my net at $2,100 as the absolute nadir of this grizzly mark-down-phase.
---
Upon a successful breach of this strategic area,
I am further prophesizing a subsequent phoenix-like rise,
elevating us to a commanding $7,777 threshold as we stride valiantly into the year 2030 through a vortex of an ending diagonal.
---
2024 - $2,111
2030 - $7,777
2035 - $12,222
☿
S&P500 rebounding on the MA50 (1d) but be careful if broken.The S&P500 index is on the first green (1d) candle after an almost test of the MA50 (1d). This level has been holding since March 30th, so consider it a short term buy entry.
The short term pattern is a Megaphone inside a long term Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the market price.
2. Sell upon a candle closing under the MA50 (1d).
3. Buy at 3980 (the MA200 1d).
Targets:
1. 4250 (Megaphone top).
2. 3980 (the MA200 1d).
3. 4330 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) has a clear long term Support Zone (39.00- 33.50). If the MA50 (1d) breaks, it can be used as additional confirmation to plan your long term buy entry.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
CONSOLIDATION NEARING ITS END!The SP500 is in long consolidation and it looks like it is near to its end.
I am considering two scenarios:
1. After debt ceiling deal – when they increase debt limit – the price will break up as a bull trap and will bounce from the next resistance.
It will fuel the price to push to the targets – near pandemic bottoms.
2. The price, after the deal, will do correction of last decline and will continue to drop till meet the targets.
S&P500 on the 1day MA50 againS&P500 / US500 approached the 1day MA50 again. This level has been supporting since the March 29th break out (almost 1 month).
Buy as long as it holds and target the dashed Rising Resistance at 4230.
Sell if the price closes under the 1day MA50 and target the Megaphone's bottom at 4030.
The 1day RSI is consolidating inside a Rectangle whose highs and lows give accurate sell/ buy signals inside the Megaphone.
Previous chart:
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US500 - SHORTThe situation does not look great for the stocks market, all the shares have reached very high levels but lately the volumes have slowed down due to the very high prices, no one wants to buy Meta, Apple, AMD or Nvidia at some prices with 100 or even 200% higher than a few months ago, so a price correction is beneficial.
At the moment we see that on the 4h chart, we had this break of the support, which cannot take the price to the targeted area.
US500 SHORTSPotential spx short entry coming up.
if price breaks and holds below ARL we will enter short.
I will update if things set up for the short.
not tagged in this entry yet.
US500: Long Signal Explained
US500
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy US500
Entry - 4137.1
Stop - 4117.4
Take - 4166.6
Our Risk - 1%
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US500 Is Going Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for US500.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 4138.7.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 4175.8 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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✅US500 BUYING OPPORTUNITY|LONG🚀
✅US500 is trading in an uptrend
Along the rising support line
Which makes me bullish biased
And the pair is about to retest the rising support
Thus, a rebound and a move up is expected
With the target of retesting the level above at 4180
LONG🚀
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Bullish breakout from the narrow rangeA few days ago, we introduced a setup with a bearish trigger coming after the breakout below the narrow range between $4,050 and $4,200. Despite that, the market decided to go in the opposite direction and broke to the upside. This development is bullish for the short term, and because of that, we will pay close attention to the index’s ability to hold above this level. We would like to see SPX close above $4,200 in at least two following trading sessions to support the continuation upwards. Contrarily, if the price closes below the level, it will indicate exhaustion; in the case that SPX falls below $4,200 and then breaks back above it, the count will reset.
As for the outlook beyond the short term, it remains unchanged (bearish). We believe the market’s rally (and increasing irrationality) is unsustainable. To support our notion, we would like to point out that only a handful of companies are responsible for more than half of SPX’s gains this year; in fact, Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA are responsible for about 60% of gains in SPX year to date (representing about a 5% move up in the index since the start of 2023). In our opinion, that raises a question of whether SPX and Nasdaq are even good to look at in order to assess the overall health of the economy (as few companies are having a too big impact on the overall performance of these indices).
In addition to that, we still have not seen the full impact of FED rate hikes due to a considerable lag that monetary policy tends to bring with it. Then there are also many other problems with people maxing out their credit cards at a time when delinquencies on loans are slowly starting to tick higher (for example, delinquencies on credit card loans went up approximately 36% in 2022), existing home sales faltering after a short rebound in early 2023, various commodities declining significantly (in a sign of falling demand), industrial production moving relatively sideways for the past few months, etc.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the narrow range.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
All eyes on SPX these days NDQ still rubbing it's 2008 resistance, this will be a pivotal point nevertheless, with megacaps overbought I would have a short bias, instead of a long one.
ES (SPX500) Short-Term Bullish Expectation/AnalysisThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
