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A Traders’ Playbook - A defining Week for Financial Markets After an eventful week for the NAS100, US500, JPN225, GER40 and the USD, traders should be open-minded for further twists in the market script this week. At one stage last week better-than-feared US data and some modestly hawkish Fed chatter saw US interest rate futures price a 40% chance of a hike at the June FOMC meeting - the USD naturally benefited from this pricing. Yet after Jay Powell’s speech on Friday market pricing is firmly back to thinking the Fed will pause. I look at the data flow due in the week ahead and question how the outcome could affect market pricing for Fed action in June (and further rout the rates curve) and what that means for the USD, equities, and gold. However, it still feels like the US debt ceiling, and the price action in US banks, are going to dominate the narrative. In the art of brinkmanship, it feels that to get a deal we must see greater market volatility and so far, we’ve not really seen really any stress outside of US Treasury bills. That could change this week and while for much of last week the headlines were that a deal is within reach, the breakdown in talks from Republican negotiators on Friday has many thinking that we could be pushed right to the June deadline before we see an agreement – where in the spirit of political negotiations politicians simply have to take this to the wire to make it seem like they’ve truly fought for the best deal. Volatility markets are calm as they come, but don’t be surprised if that changes this week. Marquee event risks for the week ahead US core PCE (Friday 22:30 AEST) – The market expects core PCE at 4.6% YoY, with economists’ range of estimates set between 4.7% to 4.2%. A number below 4.4% could weigh on the USD, while above 4.7% and the USD should find buyers. Much obviously depends on the news flow at that time around the US debt ceiling. FOMC May meeting minutes (Thurs 04:00 AEST) – while the minutes are backwards-looking in nature it could give us some understanding as to the appetite within the Fed ranks to pause in the 14 June FOMC meeting. S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMI (Tues 23:45 AEST) – the market has moved on this data release before, and above consensus numbers could push the USD higher. With US growth data points under the spotlight, we look to see if manufacturing grows or contracts (month-on-month) and how it stacks up vs UK and EU PMIs – the consensus is for manufacturing to print 50 (from 50.2) and for services at 52.5 (53.6). *Above 50 shows expansion vs the prior month, below 50 shows contraction. UK CPI (Wed 16:00 AEST) – the market expects headline inflation to fall rapidly to 8.2% (from 10.1%), while core inflation is expected to be steady at 6.2% (6.2%). The form guide suggests a modest risk of an above consensus outcome and could have meaning on the 22 June BoE meeting, where the market ascribes an 80% chance of a hike. GBPUSD support is seen at 1.2355 and a weak print could see this tested. UK Global manufacturing and services PMI (Tues 18:00 AEST) – the market sees the manufacturing index coming in at 48.0 and services at 55.5 (55.9). Unlikely this data series materially impacts interest rate expectations for the June BoE meeting - so in turn, I’m not expecting this to influence the GBP in any great capacity, but that depends on the outcome of course. EU Global manufacturing and services PMI (Tues 18:00 AEST) – the market sees a modest improvement in the pace of contraction in manufacturing, with the diffusion index eyed at 46.0 (45.8). Services PMI is eyed at 55.5 (56.2), which would be a healthy pace of growth. EURUSD is likely sold into rallies this week, although higher volatility driven by a worsening in the debt ceiling talks could see the USD offered. RBNZ meeting (Wed 12:00 AEST) – the market prices 33bp of hikes (a 32% chance of a 50bp hike), with 16/17 economists calling for a 25bp hike. With the economist community of the view we get a 25bp hike, there are risks of a quick drop in the NZD (given the small premium for a 50bp hike). We’ve seen traders covering NZD shorts into the meeting, with the NZD the best performer in G10 FX last week. Are we close to the end in the hiking cycle? The market prices a 25bp hike at this meeting and at least one more by October. Tokyo CPI (Fri 09:50 AEST) – the market sees headline inflation at 3.4% and core inflation at 3.9% (from 3.8%) – last week the JPY attracted good selling flow as the carry trade kicked in in earnest. Again, much depends on the feel towards the US debt ceiling as the JPY is probably the best trade to be long if we do see higher volatility as we roll towards 1 June. Stock of the week: NVIDIA (report Thursday at 06:20 AEST) – it’s been an incredible hold throughout all of 2023 and a momentum juggernaut, driven largely by a constant wave of short-dated call (options) buyers. Into Q1 24 earnings, we find the stock +113% YTD with valuations at sky-high levels. Investors can buy NVDA for a hefty 68x earnings, well above the long-term average - the idea of buying growth at any price rings true here. Nvidia is the poster child of the AI revolution, with many now using the word “bubble” more liberally towards AI equities. The implied move on the day of earnings is 3.3% and given the incredible run through 2023 this level of expected movement seems rather conservatively priced by options market makers. With the street expecting the company to report 91c of EPS, on $6.503b in sales, one questions if earnings and guidance truly matter - or do management just need to offer inspiration on the future of AI and Nvidia’s leadership in the AI/ML space to keep the bull run intact. Central bank speakers in the week ahead: Fed speakers – Bullard, Bostic, Barkin, Daly, Logan, Waller, Collins ECB speakers – There are 19 speakers due this week I won’t list them all RBA speakers – David Jacobs (Head of Domestic markets) speaks (Wed 17:10 AEST) BoE speakers – Haskel, Bailey
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
1
S&P500: Pull-back short term but new Bull Cycle ahead.S&P500 has almost reached the medium-term TP (4,220) so we are booking the profit on last Friday's buy position. The 1W timeframe is on steady green levels technically (RSI = 58.257, MACD = 54.060, ADX = 33.739) but the RSI is at the top of its Rising Wedge, indicating a possible loss of strength. We expect a pull-back to S1 and will buy it, targeting R1 (TP = 4,330), which is the High of August 2022. On the long term the bullish trend is intact (Channel Up) and we have an additional reason to expect a new Bull Cycle, as the 1W Ichimoku Cloud has turned green and when that happened in the past, the 1W MA50 usually turns into the long term Support for many months before a correction. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
15
The number of SPX stocks above 200-day SMA is decliningThe 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) is a widely followed technical indicator used by traders and investors to assess the overall trend of an asset. When stocks rise above their 200-day SMA, it is generally seen as a positive sign and considered a bullish development. The logic behind this idea is that if the stock's price has been consistently higher than its long-term average, it indicates strength and potential for further upward movement. Conversely, if stocks drop below this level, it is viewed as a bearish signal, implying weakness and the possibility of more downside. Monitoring the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA can provide valuable insights into the overall health and direction of the market. Therefore, today, we will examine the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 Index that are currently trading above their 200-day SMA. Since SPX’s lows in October 2022, there have been three significant peaks in the index, particularly on 13th December 2022, 2nd February 2023, and 1st May 2023. From October 2022 lows until the peak in December 2022, the percentage of SPX stocks was rising (as a matter of fact, this metric started to grow even sooner than the index, in late September 2022). However, after constituting a high in December 2022, SPX started to decline, and so did the percentage of SPX stocks above the 200-day SMA. This decline did not last long, and SPX began to rise again toward the end of 2022 and early 2023. The growth was sustained until 2nd February 2023, and after that, SPX started falling until a low on 13th March 2023. Then, the index began to rise again until 1st May 2023. The SPX was accompanied by a rising percentage of SPX stocks above the 200-day SMA on the first two legs up. But on the third leg up, SPX was accompanied by the growing metric only until early April 2023. Then, in mid-April 2023, the metric started deviating from the increasing (or sideways-moving) price of SPX. This catches our attention as it can potentially imply exhaustion for the rally, showing more and more stocks turning bearish while the index continues to hold up. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX (on the top) and the percentage of SPX stocks above 200-day SMA (on the bottom). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish (showing a lack of trend/momentum) Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
15
S&P500 The Cup pattern that nobody notices!We have been so focused on the short-term Channel Up on the S&P500 (SPX) since March (see idea below) that we didn't publish any analysis on the longer term dynamics: This analysis offers critical insight on where we are with regards to the long-term/ Cyclical trend. One parameter that stands out is that the S&P500 index has failed on two occasions to break the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) since August 26 2022. It just so happens now that the 1W MA100 is exactly on Resistance 1 (February 02 High). A break above it is a buy break-out signal targeting Resistance 2 (4330). However, it is equally probable to see a medium-term pull-back since, as you see on the chart, the curved Support Zone (dotted) that is connecting all the Lower Lows since December 2021 and provided all counter-trend rallies so far goes through th 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). A bounce there (could be within 3980 - 4000), confirms the pattern and would make the Channel's new Higher Low. If it breaks though, expect the 3810 Support 1 to be tested. Notice also that the RSI on the 1W time-frame is approaching its own Higher Lows Zone, which has been a Buy Zone for exactly 1 year! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
SP:SPXLong
by TradingShot
7
Flattening retail sales, declining inventories and real outputYesterday’s financial print in the United States indicated a 0.4% MoM and a 1.6% YoY rise in retail sales for April 2023. The data showed that industrial production increased by 0.5% MoM and 0.2% YoY during the same period. Business inventories shrank by 0.1% MoM, and manufacturing production jumped by 1% MoM (while showing a decline of 0.9% YoY). As this mix of data did not help to bring much clarity to the market, we would like to look at the bigger picture rather than at monthly changes in these metrics. Retail sales have been trending relatively sideways since March 2022. Moreover, since around the same time, business inventories have continuously declined, suggesting that businesses are not stacking up goods for sale (and are likely anticipating lower demand in the future). The real output in the manufacturing sector dropped slightly lower in the past half year, and the real output in the nonfarm business sector has been declining for much longer (at least since 4Q21). Furthermore, based on the preliminary report from BLS, nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased by 2.7% in the first quarter of 2023, while manufacturing sector labor productivity dropped by 1.3%. These developments are not particularly bullish and should have investors on high alert. With that said, we continue to wait for more bad data (concerning rising unemployment, declining consumer spending, growing delinquencies on debt, etc.), which should finally start spooking the overly complacent market. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the chart of U.S. retail sales. This metric can be seen flattening since at least March 2022. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the business inventories. Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows the real output in the nonfarm business sector. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
18
SPX lacks a trend Since April 2023, the Standard & Poor's 500 index has been going sideways, primarily fluctuating between $4,050 and $4,200. During this time, ADX has declined substantially on the daily time frame, reflecting the lack of a directional trend. We continue to be bearish on the index while waiting for a breakout from the narrow range. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the same setup we introduced recently (with a bearish trigger below Support 1 and tight stop-loss above it); the significance of Support 1 grew with the breakout on 4th May 2023 (when it successfully halted the price decline). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
9
A traders week ahead playbook - the USD rally getting legs China industrial production (16 May 12:00 AEST) – the market expects a solid improvement in the industrial production read at 10.8%. We also get retail sales (+22%), and fixed asset investment (5.7%) – a big year-on-year improvement shouldn’t surprise given it is measured against a stagnant economy that was in lockdown. However, with China’s data throwing up a few concerns of late (we’ve seen poor import, PPI, and loan data) China’s growth is very much at the heart of market moves. USDCNH seems key to G10 FX pricing, and a further rise towards 7.0000 should weigh on EURUSD and AUDUSD. Japan national CPI (19 May 09:30 AEST) – a data point that flies under the radar, but this print could be very important for Japan govt bond (JGB) and JPY pricing. With expectations of a change in BoJ (Bank of Japan) policy recently pushed back to the July/September BoJ meetings (there is no August BoJ meeting), a hot CPI print could see views of a tweak to policy pushed forward. The market expects headline CPI at 3.5% (from 3.2%) and core at 4.2% (3.8%). The core print is concerning given the extent of the recent rise and if it does indeed come in at 4.2% it would be the highest since Aug 1982. The JPY should be on the radar here and a print into 4.4% could see JPY shorts cover. US retail sales – the market will be watching ongoing US debt ceiling negotiations and the tape in the regional banks, but US retail sales could potentially impact pricing – the market expects a 0.8% lift in sales in April. With just 3bp of hikes priced for the June FOMC, we’d need to see a punchy number (well above 1%) to move the USD on this release. USDJPY is the cleanest play on this data, with the risk skewed for a move back to key resistance at 137.69. UK employment report (16 May 16:00 AEST / 07:00 BST) – the market looks for 5.8% earnings growth (from 5.9%), with the U/E rate unchanged at 3.8%. The market prices 20bp of hikes for the 22 June BOE meeting, and a peak (terminal) bank rate of 4.87%, so the employment report could impact the GBP. GBPUSD trades heavy, with 1.2344 as the big support target. EURGBP saw a bullish outside day on Thursday and I like buy stop orders above 0.8734 for 0.8760/70. Aus Q1 wage price index (17 May – 11:30 AEST) – the market is looking for 3.6% YoY wage growth (0.9% QoQ), with the range of estimates set from 3.8% to 3.5%. With just 1bp of hikes (a 4% chance) priced for the June RBA meeting, a blowout wage print could lift very sanguine rates pricing. Probably good for a small lift in the AUD, but the bigger driver remains concerns around global growth, so China’s data dump is likely more important for the AUD this week. Aus April employment report (18 May – 11:30 AEST) – the consensus is calling for 25k net jobs created, with the U/E rate unchanged at 3.5% and the participation rate at 66.7%. Unlikely a volatility event for the AUD, or at least one where any initial move is likely quickly faded. Canada CPI (16 May 22:30 AEST) – the market expects headline CPI at 4.2% YoY (from 4.3%) and core at 4.3% (from 4.6%). The market sees the Bank of Canada (BoC) on pause through 2023, with cuts priced in January 2024 – the risk is we see a downside surprise opening cuts in Q3 23. Upside risks in USDCAD remain for a re-test of 1.3667. Fed speakers – it’s a massive week of Fed speakers and it could get noisy, although I suspect they will all say a similar thing; that inflation is still too high, and that interest rates may need to go up further, although they will need to assess the lag effect of policy tightening. Chair Powell speaks with Ben Bernanke (20 May at 01:00 AEST) and that could be worth a listen. ECB speakers – we see 12 ECB speeches this coming week
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by Pepperstone
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAY 15 WEEKCME_MINI:ES1! Are we seeing the bearish ascending triangle already? As with NQ, tendency to take rotational trades has diminished. Scenario Planning: 1) If market remain within 4163 - 4118 = No trade 2) Larger rotation 4198 - 4068 = trade at boundary of range Volume Analysis: Weekly: Lower vol down bar close off low = some demand present Daily: Lower vol down bar close off low = some demand present Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4303 4198 4163-4118 (No trade zone) 4065 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week. *For educational purpose only.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
S&P500: 4H Death Cross forming and can be short term bullish.The S&P500 is on a tight 4H range with 4H technicals neutral (RSI = 47.011, MACD = 1.690, ADX = 20.555) inside the Megaphone pattern. By Tuesday we should see a 4H Death Cross completed, which even though technically bearish, it made a short term rebound on the last two occurencies. As long as S1 holds, we will target the top of the Megaphone (TP = 4,220). If the bottom of the Megaphone breaks, we will target the S2 (TP = 3,925). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
15
US500 H4 | Approaching 78.6% Fibo resistanceUS500 could approach a key resistance level and potentially reverse from here. We could see price move down to our take profit target. Entry: 4159.10 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement Stop Loss: 4186.60 Why we like it: There is a swing-high resistance Take Profit: 4107.30 Why we like it: There is an overlap support close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
UShort
by VantageMarkets
S&P500 Trade the Megaphone's breakoutThe S&P500 is trading inside a Megaphone pattern, which in December 2022 broke to the downside and hit Fibonacci 0.236 of the Channel Up. With the 1day MA50 supporting however for 40 straight days, it is equally probable to see an upward breakout. If the price crosses over the Megaphone, buy and target the top of the long term Channel Up at 4350. If it crosses under the Megaphone, sell and target the bottom at 3950. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheCryptagon
10
US500 Will Collapse! SELL! My dear subscribers , US500 looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 4125.0 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Goal - 4097.9 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by AnabelSignals
7
spx 900Good morning esteemed individuals, bag holders, and exit liquidity providers. In my previous post, I dissected the Dow Jones and received a plethora of animosity for it - thus, I have returned to impart additional truths upon the disgruntled boomer brethren, much to their chagrin. --- Within Elliott Wave Theory, the third and fifth waves typically exhibit a notable bearish divergence, as elegantly depicted in this 12-month chart. Higher degree Wave 4s often retrace to the territory of the preceding degree's Wave 4. To affirm the culmination of the 13-year movement spanning from 2009 to 2022, one may peruse my post below: Note that, at the time, I was observing the market through a rather conservative lens, failing to consider the myriad of appalling truths I have since unearthed regarding the system to which we all regrettably belong. --- What lies ahead surpasses the darkest depths of our current imaginations. You, the one in denial, shall bear the brunt of the impact. --Brace for the worst, and may fortune favor your 401k.
SP:SPX
by Eloquent
2
ES1! H4 | Falling to 38.2% FiboES1! is pulling back towards a key overlap support and potentially reverse from this level. Price could hit our buy entry at 4072.50 and bounce up from here. Our stop loss will be at 4023.00. The take profit level will be at 4158.00 which is an overlap resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Rockqet
US500 H4 | Falling to overlap supportUS500 is falling towards a key support level and reverse from here. We could see price bounce up to our take profit target. Entry: 4058.45 Why we like it: There is an overlap support at the recent swing-lows Stop Loss: 4016.35 Why we like it: There is an overlap support Take Profit: 4132.25 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
ULong
by VantageMarkets
S&P500 The weekly chart puts everything into perspectiveAlmost 2 months ago and the S&P500 (SPX) hasn't diverged from our original idea, after buying the bottom of the 6-month Channel Up: We believe that looking into the 1W (weekly) time-frame again will help at giving a fresh outlook and technically the best illustration of the current situation. First we narrowed the Channel Up to the candle bodies and treat the wicks as pressure points only. As you see, the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) is the key element here as it has been the Resistance since the 1W candle of August 22 2022. The price came very close to breaking it on three 1W candles: September 12 2022, January 30 2023 and last week (May 01 2023). Our trading plan is simple. If SPX closes a candle above the 1W MA100, we will buy the break-out and target the 4327 Resistance (August 16 High). Until then, we will wait for 4020 and buy at the bottom of the 1 month Megaphone pattern, approximately near the 1D MA200. In that case the bullish target will be the 4195 Resistance. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
U
by TradingShot
1
Fears from banking sector might be about to spread elsewhereFollowing the last FOMC meeting, notable developments in the stock market took place. First, volatility increased significantly among regional banks, seeing shares of companies like PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance, Metropolitan Bank, and Home Street plunging by high double-digits. These declines, however, did not last long, and financial institutions recovered much of their post-FOMC losses in the past three trading sessions. Then yesterday, these companies soared during the pre-market and got sold off during the regular trading hours. Interestingly, these erratic moves follow Jerome Powell’s reassurance (from a week ago) that the banking system is “safe and sound” and making progress toward recovery. While this might be true for major banks that are well-positioned to weather the storm, regional banks are still at risk of spreading contagion that can lead to a domino effect (similar to the one we saw last year in the cryptocurrency market with the bust of Celsius Network, Voyager, FTX, etc.). As a result, this might lead to more broad fear in the markets, especially once more economic indicators will start to worsen. On the topic of these indicators, so far, an extremely low level of unemployment has been used as an excuse by many economists to say there is no recession ahead (despite history being full of examples when extremely low unemployment preceded the start of a recession). Therefore, we do not consider low unemployment a reliable indicator to assess that the U.S. economy will dodge a recession (also bear in mind that a person not actively seeking a job is not counted as unemployed). Overall, we would say that labor market data show a lot of discrepancies that could suggest otherwise (a growing number of continuous jobless claims, a declining number of multiple jobholders, etc.). In addition to that, rate hikes tend to affect the economy with a lag (often noted as a lag of between 6 to 18 months), meaning the economy still has not felt the effect of the number of previous rate hikes, at least since November 2022 (equal to at least 100 basis points). With the FED’s target of a 2% inflation rate still being very distant, we think interest rates will be required to be held higher for much longer than the market is pricing in at the moment. In fact, we believe there is still a very high chance there won’t be any rate cuts in 2023. Accordingly, we expect this realization among investors to lead to a big repricing event we mentioned before. As such, our price target for SPX stays at $3,500. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the price action of particular banking stocks in yesterday’s pre-market. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the unemployment rate in the United States. Yellow arrows indicate extremely low levels of unemployment that preceded lasting periods of elevated unemployment. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows continuous jobless claims. The metric is up approximately 40% since September 2022 and about 10% since the start of 2023. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
15