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VIX and S&P500 This is why stocks may rise now.Following yesterday's green stock market reaction, we compare on today's analysis VIX (Volatility Index) to the S&P500 (SPX) price action on the 1D time-frame. Our goal is to find clues to how the Volatility Index can affect the stocks. As you can see, VIX is trading within an Ascending Triangle which 2 days ago got rejected on its top (Higher Highs) trend-line. All this while its Lower Highs trend-line since September 2022 (1 year back) sits right above it. At the same time the S&P500 index found the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of its Channel Down (while the Higher Lows trend-line since the October 2022 market bottom sits right below) and on first impression appears to be rebounding. Being negatively correlated, the more VIX drops, i.e. market volatility calms/ decreases, the more likely it is for the stock market to rise, at least for the short-term towards the Channel Down top (similarly VIX to the Triangle's Support). In order to see it resume the long-term bullish trend, VIX most likely needs to break its Support. It is not unlikely as the market may respect the long-term Lower Highs (similarly Higher Lows for SPX) and hold it as new rejection point, but for the time being we have to keep our perspective on the short-term patterns (Ascending Triangle and Channel Down respectively) until shown otherwise. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIXShort
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 H4 | Bearish reaction off 38.2% fibo?Price is rising towards our sell entry at 4345.16, which is an overlap resistance level, aligning with the 38.2% fibo retracement and 100% fibo projection. Our stop loss is at 4386.35, which is placed above the 50% fibo retracement. Take profit is at 4308.62, which is a pullback support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
2
S&P500 Do or die moment for the bullish trend.The S&P500 / US500 is approaching the 1day MA200 (intact since March 24th) and its 1day RSI just become oversold for the first time since September 27th 2022 (exactly 1 year ago!). That time was the begining of the Bear Cycle's bottom formation. Additionally, we are at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern that started after the September 2022 bottom, so it is easy to understand that it is now or never if the bullish trend is to be sustained. Buy on the current market price and target 4820, which is the All Time High of January 2022 and slightly under the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (targeted on prior rally). This approach is negated if the price closes a 1day candle under the MA200. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
5
S&P500 Entered the 2 year High Supply/Demand Zone. Will it hold?Time to leave the short-term charts for S&P500 (SPX) aside and look again at the long-term ones as the price failed last week to recover the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is extending this week the decline towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ** Higher Lows and 2-year Supply/ Demand Zone ** It hasn't yet hit the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom but has entered a 2 year High Supply/ Demand Zone, which has acted as the strongest Pivot Belt since October 2021, with 4 registered holds (green arrows) and 4 rejections (red arrows). It is clear that the market considered it a key during the previous Bear Cycle as well as the Bull Cycle. ** Inflation Crisis vs Subprime mortgage Crisis ** As you can see on the chart, we compare this Inflation Crisis price action with the bottom and subsequent recovery of the Subprime mortgage crisis in 2009 - 2010. The curved bottom on the 1D RSI suggests that we are so far aligned to a certain extent with the first susbtantial correction of the recovery which on May 06 2010 hit (and breached) the 1D MA200. The bottom was priced 2 months later on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. ** So what now? ** The 0.382 Fibonacci on today's sequence is on 4185, marginally above the bottom of the Pivot Zone and almost where the 1D MA200 is currently. This presents us with the probability that if the Higher Lows fails and the 1D MA200 breaks, the market has high chances to consider the bottom of the 2-year Pivot Zone as a High Demand level again. If that happens, we will be buyers for as long as 1D candles close above the bottom of the Zone. Based on the 2009 - 2010 price action, it can rise towards the -0.236 Fib ext and reach the 4820 All Time High (ATH) by Q2 2024. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
6
Stock market crash looming over?Last week, the FED meeting resulted in no rate hike. However, Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to fight inflation, with dot plots showing the possibility of one more rate hike this year and interest rates staying elevated for at least another two years. That is no surprise to us as we have been warning for months about interest rates going higher and staying there. In addition to that, since late last year, we have been warning about the most deceitful bear market rally in cryptocurrencies and stocks as well. Since then, we have seen a very uneven recovery, with the major indices like SPX and Nasdaq being propelled higher by a handful of companies while Russell and small caps were staying far behind in the recovery process. Furthermore, earlier this year, a big case was made out of the Chinese reopening of the economy after the Covid-19 pandemic. Back then, we remarked how much would depend on the performance of the Chinese economy and that its slowdown could inadvertently endanger the U.S. stock market and bring recession to the West. Then, in August 2023, we issued another warning about the Chinese stock market rolling over, signaling trouble for the U.S. markets. Fast forward to today, and we have seen a failure of the Chinese indices to advance higher despite attempts by regulators to calm down the market, and in the U.S., personal savings declined, credit use soared and inflation reaccelerated. Furthermore, commercial bank deposits resumed a decline, and delinquencies on credit card loans started to soar rapidly. As for the narrative in the media, the widely accepted opinion is still that the U.S. economy is headed for a soft landing. But, we remain very skeptical about the FED’s ability to deliver one. In our view, many signs point to the more harsh scenario, with the environment increasingly favoring a significant market selloff. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the chart of the delinquency rate on credit card loans, which doubled in the last year and a half. Illustration 1.02 The picture above displays the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout, which marked a new low for the index since 27th July 2023. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
29
S&P500 Crazy as it may seem, we may see 9000 by the end of 2026!S&P500 / US100 is having a strong correction these past two months (August-September). However on the wider scales such as the 1week time frame this is only a minor technical correction. It is near forming a 1week MA50-100 Bullish Cross. Last time it formed this pattern was in September 2016 and the index never broke under either MA level. It went on to peak near the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. Similar peak (Fib 3.0) and Channel Up leading to it (of course we can't count the COVID crash into it) on the December 2021 top. The RSI pattern between now and 2016 is similar as well. Based on the above and crazy as it may sound, it is a technical possibility to see the Channel Up that started in late 2022, extend into the end of 2026 and price a top near 9,000. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:SPX
by TheCryptagon
1
S&P500: Near the bottom. Recovery should start early October.S&P500 is trading on a descending channel, on a very bearish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.220, MACD = -31.420, ADX = 38.889). The 1D RSI is on the same level as the August 17th bottom of this Channel Down. This decline is approaching a Triple Support Band: the 1D MA200 and the 1W MA50 which are headed directly for the bottom of the Channel Up that started exactly a year ago. We expect the bottom to be formed inside these two weeks and early next month to see the first signs of recovery. A Cup recovery pattern has been the common mode of rise these past 12 months, so we set a R1 target (TP = 4,600) for mid to end of November. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
4
S&P500 Confirmed sell as it crossed the MA100 (1d).The S&P500 index crossed today under the MA100 (1d) for the first time since March 28th. Since October 2022, the pattern is a Channel Up and the current decline since the July 27th top still has room to fall before it hits the pattern's bottom. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 4250 (bottom of the Channel Up and potential contact with the MA200 (1d)). Tips: 1. The bottom's of the long term Channel Up have beem formed when the RSI (1d) completed Lower Lows near or under the 30.00 level. Be ready to book the profit if you see a rebound after the RSI makes a Lower Low. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
S&P500 Ascending Triangle giving a bottom buy signal.The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us last week an accurate quick buy signal (see chart below) but then got sold-off to a new 3-week Low: The price hit yesterday during that sell-off the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Ascending Triangle pattern that is in place since the August 04 High (which created its 4540 top/ Resistance). This is a short-term buy signal and will be confirmed if the 4H MACD completes the emerging Bullish Cross. The immediate Resistance is the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) - 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) Zone and the short-term is the Lower Highs trend-line since the September 01 High. That will be our target, aiming at a +1.77% rise (proportionally less than the previous) at 4490. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
S&P500: Channel Down bottom and HL Support cluster. Buy?S&P500 hit today the HL trendline from the August 18th Low, while approaching the bottom of the Channel Down pattern. Despite this short term weakness, the 1D timeframe remains on neutral technicals (RSI = 46.932, MACD = 8.582, ADX = 32.119). This indicates that it may be an opportunity for sideways trading until we see a clear long term trend. Consequently, we are buyers on this level, expecting a rebound to the top of the Channel Down and the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 4,490). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500 Normal consolidation within the large Channel Up.S&P500 / US500 is highly volatile these first two weeks of September, trading sideways on a relatively wide margin, using the 1day MA50 as the pivot. As long as the 1day MA100 supports, this is a similar consolidation that we witnessed after the market's prior bottom inside the 11 month Channel Up. Both the 1day RSI and MACD indicate that we might be halfway through the consolidation phase. This volatile trade is far from alarming for the long term, with the 1day MA200 conveniently placed on the Channel's bottom. We may see the rally taking off at the end of the month. It is a good opportunity to buy and target 4770 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension as the June 16th High). Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheCryptagon
10
S&P500 Short-term buy within the weekly Channel Up.The S&P500 (SPX) hit today the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 06, which was before the current 5-day Channel Up pattern. So far it delivers an initial rejection, whose pull-back can extend even below the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line). Based on the 1H RSI though, which is posting a sequence similar to September 07 - 08, we are close to the reversal point, making it already a buy opportunity. You can confirm that after the price closes a candle above the 1H MA200. Regardless, our target is at the end of a +1.27% increase and the top of the Channel Up at 4500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
3
S&P500: Formed new bottom. Expecting a rise.The S&P500 index has hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level after a 4H Golden Cross that turned the 4H technical outlook bullish (RSI = 59.782, MACD = 9.210, ADX = 36.280). As mentioned before, this is the same fractal of December 2022 to January 2023. Holding the 0.382 was key to sustaining a rise to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. We remain bullish on S&P500, targeting the current 1.236 Fibonacci (TP = 4,670). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
5
US500 - Inflation data aheadHi Traders, last week the US500 did a correction as expected. Right now price is at a interesting level for Bulls (arround July High) Next week we have to put our eyes on the US inflation data. On wednesday we have the Core CPI. The forcase is +0,2% What is the core CPI? The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. On Thursday we also need to watch for PPI - which is likely a good indicator for future CPI values. What is the PPI? The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Wish you all good trades! Team tegasFX
CAPITALCOM:US500
by tegasFX
S&P500 Rising Wedge is forming a bottom. Bullish.S&P500 / US500 is trading sideways as it attempts to form a bottom on the Rising Support of the Rising Wedge pattern. The 4hour RSI rebounded from the oversold territory as on the August 18th bottom. Every Higher High on the Wedge's top was a Fibonacci 1.618 extension from the previous one. Buy now and target 4598 (Resistance B), which is slightly under the next Fibonacci 1.618 extension. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
10