US500 short ideaI know a lot of people want the stock market to crash and burn, and for the US economy to go into a recession.
Well here is my idea of what to look for in a short trade on the US500, ES, SPX etc.
But be warned, after this tax drain, if the US Congress lifts the debt ceiling, your shorts will be blown out of the water.
There will be more and more positive fiscal transfers as the level of interest rate as seen in the EFFR stays high and even goes a little higher.
Us500
More pressure to keep shorts under waterI marked the 1.13 and the 1.272 fib extensions. We see an upward channel right now so short term bullish but then we should be looking to enter short around 4200.
4-27-23 [spx]gm gm,
quick update to the local trajectory on the spx500.
after invalidating the 5th leg up locally (via my last post),
it becomes abundantly clear to me, that all of these moves - are in fact 3 wave moves.
being this corrective by nature, i can now conclude my entire theory by saying this is in fact a massive B wave,
and spx will undergo a significant break down once wave b has been completed (quite possible sub-covid-low).
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no downside targets at this time,
but i got you whenever i see it.
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>keep in mind, these posts are very general, and you should consistently be doing your own dd, and analysis on the ever-changing market structures.
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4-25-23 [spx]good afternoon anon,
are you feeling bearish all of a sudden?
it's okay, that's natural.
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spx looks to be in a local 4th wave right now -
4073.75 is the hard invalidation on this local wave.
if it is breached, the upside move is invalidated and bears take full control over the next 2 weeks.
---
>if the bulls are succesful in this local setup,
>i am estimating a move up to 4250 into this friday where i believe pce comes in hot,
>and sends the market tumbling down into the dungeons.
---
nfa, do your own research and dd.
S&P500 Sell signal confirmedThe S&P500 (SPX) has had an excellent run following our buy call more than one month ago:
Yesterday though it flashed a sell confirmation as the price broke and closed below the Higher Lows trend-line of the recent Channel Up bottom. Both previous times this happened (December 06 2022 and February 17 2023, it was a major sell signal towards a new Channel Up (Higher) Low. Additionally, the 1D MACD has made a Bearish Cross.
The Support Zone 1 that is currently being tested, has on those previous fractals provided the first layer of accumulation that later broke and targeted both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Our target is 3915, just above Support Zone 2, which was hit during both previous corrections.
Invalidation of this pattern will happen if a 1D candle closes above the Lower Highs trend-line, in which case the 4195 Resistance will be targeted.
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Swing LONG $US500Bullish engulfing candle after tapping a demand zone.
Tempted to long from here but I'll wait till tomorrow, see how price holds above the demand zone.
Goodnight!
US500 Next MovePair : US500
Description :
Rising Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame with the Breakout of the Lower Trend Line and Retracement
Divergence
Break of Structure
Bullish Channel in Short Time Frame as an Corrective Pattern
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive and " ABC " Corrective Wave
S&P500: Head and Shoulders emerging. Sell signal.The S&P500 crossed under the 4H MA100 today and is forming a Head and Shoulders pattern on extremly bearish 4H technicals (RSI = 37.236, MACD = -4.910, ADX = 58.125).
This is a sell signal especially if the price rebounds now and gets one last rejection on the 4H MA50. A similar pattern formed the February High. We are targeting S1 initially (TP1 = 4,050) and if the index closes under the 1D MA50 (red line), extend selling to S2 (TP2 = 3,925).
Prior idea:
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S&P500 Channel Down or Bull Flag? Trade accordingly.The S&P500 is testing the Rising Support of the Channel Up pattern.
It is doing so inside a dashed Channel Down, which can also be a Bull Flag.
As long as the price closes over the Rising Support, buy and target 4215 (Fibonacci 1.5).
If it closes under it, sell and target 4050 (4hour MA200).
Previous chart:
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SP500 can reach the 4200 🦐SP500 after our previous analysis reached the weekly resistance.
The market after a distribution phase started. a new series of higher high higher low moves.
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for the US market open and a potential break of the structure.
IF that will happen i will look for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
US500: Bearish Continuation is Highly Probable! Here is Why:
Looking at the chart of US500 right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move down seems to be quite likely.
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US500, 4days/-8.41%falling cycle -8.41% in 4 days.
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This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
Banking Cry sisgo long, wave3 extention leads to shallow wave-4s . I know a lot, I am the god of trading
S&P500 Cyclical buy signal starting next monthThis analysis is basically an extension of the study we published last week, explaining how the index is starting an aggressive expansion:
Based purely on the 3W time-frame, now we have incorporated the Sine Waves to clearly display the cyclical buy/ sell pattern inside the long-term Channel Up that started at the bottom of the Housing Crisis (March 2009).
As this shows, for the past 10 years, the bottom of the Cycles is where investors should consider to start buying, while the top is where they should consider to start selling. The last sell signal was given on October 25 2021 and the next buy signal will be flashed on May 30 (2023).
With the index trading around the 3W MA50 (blue trend-line) since it rebounded off the market bottom (October 2022), this price action may imply that the market is in anticipation of the big move. This cyclical buy signal may just be the trigger it needs.
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US500 H4 | Bounce from 50.0% Fibo?US500 is approaching a key support level and potentially bounce from here. We could see price move up to our take profit target.
Entry:
Why we like it:4116.05
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 4061.20
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support
Take Profit: 4173.48
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance at the recent swing-high
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
US500 (SPX) Outlook 4/16Bullish on indices, but I don't trust those lows. Want to see them taken out before the move up. FVG below is added reason to expect them to fail.
US500 H4 | Bounce from 38.2% FiboUS500 is approaching a key support and potentially bounce from here. We could see price move up to our take profit target.
Entry: 4132.55
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 4086.65
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
Take Profit: 4173.45
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
4-19-23 [spy]good afternoon,
been playing around with many variations of this count over these last few days, and i really like this one.
we call these "sharp double zig-zags" in my world, and they are designed for the sole purpose of squeezing out all the bears out of the bear market.
i have theorized for awhile that the spx would end up going back near ath before the next major leg down - and this is precisely how i think that happens.
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Wave B target = HKEX:464
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S&P500 Still bullish but sell under this level.S&P500 is extending its rise inside the long term Channel Up.
The MA100 (4h) is supporting as it did in the previous two Higher High waves.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as the price is closing over the MA100 (4h).
2. Sell if it closes under it.
Targets:
1. 4220 (+11.00% rise).
2. 3950 (Channel's bottom).
Tips:
1. Both medium term corrections inside the Channel Up, started when a candle closed under the MA100 (4h).
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
Stock Markets Trend Analysis - US30, US100, US500, UK100, GE40By analysing the stock markets at different timeframes, ranging from the three-monthly chart down to a four-hour chart, I have noticed that they have reached a significant resistance level on several higher timeframes. Furthermore, on the lower timeframe, the trend seems to display indications of weakening, and the charts seem to be range-bound. Could this signify that a stock market selloff is looming? If it is, this will undoubtedly affect the currency markets. In the video we look at the following charts on multiple time frames: US30, US100, US500, UK100, GE40, VIX. I would like to clarify that this video is simply an observation and a sharing of my thoughts, and should not be interpreted as financial advice.
S&P500 Don't sell before this line breaksThe S&P500 (SPX) has had an excellent run following our buy call exactly one month ago:
The confirmation for the buy was given by the 1D RSI Bullish Cross. As the price is approaching the top of the Channel Up, which is projected to be within 4230 - 4250, we start looking for signals to sell. Naturally the 1D RSI giving the opposite signal (Bearish Cross) will be a confirmation. As you see, the previous two RSI Bearish Crosses have been the two major sell signals within this 6-month Channel Up and have been formed straight after the price broke below the Higher Lows trend-line from the previous Higher Low.
Right now the price as supported by the Higher Lows trend-line and as long as it does, we will continue taking small buys towards the top. We will sell after its breaks below the Higher Lows and the RSI makes the Bearish Cross. Potential target 3930.
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Volatility in decline - why the VIX index is so lowHaving only recently traded through the most volatile (vol) environments in interest rates and bond markets since the GFC, we are now seeing far more subdued conditions in vol. Many have expressed disbelief at how the VIX index (S&P500 30-day implied volatility) is below 17% when the US is eyeing a possible recession this year, the credit crunch is yet to really bite, earnings estimates are likely due to be revised lower, and Treasury yields curves are still deeply inverted.
It’s not just the fact we haven’t seen the S&P500 close 1% lower since 22 March (18 sessions), but we also see the 5-day (exponential) moving average of the high-low trading range for S&P500 futures at a meagre 41-points. This is not far off the lowest levels since 2011, so traders are getting less and to work with intraday.
There isn’t one reason for the lower vol, so I have put some views on the considerations I see as causing these calmer conditions. I am sure there are others, but these jump out.
1. S&P500 realised volatility is impacting the VIX index – we see that S&P500 10-day realised vol is now 8.2%, with S&P500 20-day realised vol at 11.7%% - both are the lowest levels since Nov 21 – options market makers will typically look at how volatility is realising as the basis for pricing implied volatility. The fact the S&P500 just refuses to fall has also limited the demand for downside hedges- hedges cost money.
2. CTAs (trend-following funds) have been getting progressively longer and their estimated net exposure is ‘max long’ US S&P500 futures. Volatility-targeting hedge funds are adding equity exposure as equity realised vol falls – lower vol begets lower vol.
3. Why sell your equity longs? Funds are taking advantage of the grinding price action in stocks and selling S&P500 index calls and using the premium to buy OTM (out of the money) S&P puts – this means they can essentially hold their core equity holdings and utilise optionality with a cheap/free hedge.
4. Reduced interest rate risk – the Fed are now fully data dependent and the market prices a 25bp hike in May, with an extended pause through to November – with a far more normal distribution in the skew of expectations for bond price/yields (i.e. yields could go either way and not just higher), we’ve seen bond vol (we use the MOVE index) fall from the highs on 15 March. Probable lengthy inaction from the Fed has lowered volatility.
5. A weaker USD has helped lower broad market volatility - The USD index (DXY) fell 4.8% from 8 March to 14 April – in that time the VIX index fell 9 vols from 26% to 17%
6. The Fed’s response to managing instability risk through the rollout of emergency credit facilities was truly meaningful – the market is becoming comfortable that there will be consolidation in the US banking sector ahead of us, but the Fed has cut the systemic event risk.
7. Increased liquidity - Reserve balances held with the Fed are +12% since March. We also see that since January the TGA (Treasury General Account) has been drawn down by $450B to sit at $109B.
8. Corporate share buybacks authorisation hit a new record and nears $400b – companies are the biggest buyers of stocks, and this is suppressing vol.
9. BoJ gov Ueda said on 10 April that YCC is still the best policy for the current economy – the has reduced JGB and JPY implied vol, which again has spilt over into G10 FX volatility.
10. The Fed funds rate was hiked aggressively from 0.25% to 5% - Yet while the US real policy rate (fed funds adjusted for headline CPI) has moved from -8% to -0.2%, it is still negative and to some that are not restrictive enough.
11. The rise of 0DTE (days to expiry) options – fewer traders are trading 20–40-day expiries and the volume in ultra-short-term options means we see less volume in the strikes that feed the VIX calculation.
Trading Strategy – traders adapt their strategy to lower volatility and range compression. Recognising the market environment is pivotal for day traders – this means understanding if it’s a range/mean reverting session or more of a trending and possible momentum day. We can see that when the close-to-close percentage changes are low, and the trading ranges are compressing mean reversion strategies are preferred. Traders are selling strength intraday and buying weakness.
What changes this low-vol regime?
If we knew then everyone would be buying volatility – we can look at the known risks and anticipate, but we wait for the market to react and show it is now a factor – being early can hurt. To cause a material drawdown in risk and higher vol I think it must stem from liquidity. While we can’t rule out a renewed move to hike interest rates, I see the debt ceiling as a real risk – not because the US govt is going to miss a debt payment and technically default; the probability of that is incredibly low. But the actual negative event may come from once we see it resolved and the US Treasury aggressively rebuilds the TGA, and issues close to a $1t of short-term US Bills – this will act as a massive liquidity drain and QT on steroids. This comes at a time when the US could be moving into recession and the ECB balance sheet will be falling faster. A scenario many are starting to look at very closely now as liquidity is the oxygen in the market's lungs.
