So now back down to the 200 day?Traders,
We have now touched the underside of our macro uptrend (3) three times and the bulls have been unable to break to the topside again. Is is time for them to sit the bench for a few weeks, get their wind back, and let the bears take us back down to retest that 200 day one more time? It might be.
Stew
Us500
A traders week ahead playbook - managing risk like a ninjaThere are weeks when the landmines by which traders must navigate are seen in such abundance, where the implications for market pricing are so meaningful, that we manage risk well or we simply get schooled - this week seems to be one of these.
As we look down the calendar we see marquee catalysts everywhere – earnings, central bank meetings and tier-one economic data – what’s more, they’ve given the UK a holiday to get the mindset on point.
It's all there, yet interestingly implied levels of volatility over the week remain subdued, and traders are simply not betting on broad cross-asset volatility. We’ll see if that aggregated view on volatility is priced correctly, but it certainly feels like many of the questions being asked will be partly answered this week.
Subdued volatility aside, the set-ups are there to entice – the NAS100 will look to Apple’s numbers, but price (in the index) has broken the consolidation phase and while breakouts have limited success, the upside target of 13,800 from the bull flag remains a real risk and the pain trade.
The US500 is having another crack at 4160 resistance – we saw a series of failed breaks in Feb, but is this time different? With all talk about awful breadth and so much of the heavy lifting done by Apple and Microsoft we see this leadership hasn’t given up yet, and a firm break of 4160 and many will be chasing the index to 4300.
The JPY crosses saw big moves on Friday and will continue to garner much attention this week – we’ve seen some huge breaks of significant resistance levels – pull up a daily chart of CHFJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY and the question will be “to chase or not to chase”? I am sure many will be fading this move, but I am keen to let the buyers push this a little further, notably in USDJPY where the scalper in me has the 137.60/70 area in firm focus. The real action for the JPY comes into June where tactically I see a strong bullish backdrop in the making, but for now, the JPY is the weakest link.
AUDUSD held the 0.6584 range low last week and a poor China PMI (released Sunday) won't do longs many favours. Good support was seen here last week, but I would have preferred price to print a bullish outside day on Friday and that failed. The pair still looks heavy, and a close below 0.6584 would get a lot of attention.
Gold continues to consolidate – although you can flip it to XAUJPY and see a firm rally to new highs. I like a momentum move in XAUUSD and would be a buyer of strength through HKEX:2012 – that may not come, but a “body in motion stays in motion” approach is compelling. The trade will need buyers in US Treasuries, a steeper yield curve and US 5yr real rates headed through 1.14% (they currently sit at 1.23%).
Anyhow, plenty of going on – get in front of the screens and question where you see the balance of risk – or as is typically the best way in times like this, be agile, react like a ninja and be a slave to price action.
Marquee event risks for the week ahead
Treasury Secretary Yellen to announce the debt ceiling X-date (2-5 May) - Not a volatility event in itself, but the start of a process that could get blanket market attention going into July – where the market should give the debt ceiling far more consideration once we know the X-date; the explicit point when the US Treasury start having to cut back on essential payments.
FOMC meeting (4 May 04:00 AEST / Jay Powell press conference 04:30) - A 25bp hike seems a done deal – could this mark a temporary end to the Fed’s tightening hiking cycle? We see 79/98 economists calling a 25bp hike, with the market pricing an 85% chance of this outcome. With just 5bp of hikes priced for the June FOMC meeting, the market expects strong signals that a pause is coming. With inflation still highly elevated the risks are skewed to a hawkish hike. I see two-way risks for the USD through this meeting.
ECB meeting (4 May 22:15 AEST) - A 25bp hike to 3.75% is not just fully priced, there is a small premium for 50 bp. Positioning will be important, with the market long of EUR's and expecting to remain hawkish. There will be a focus on the upcoming wall of TLTRO repayment for EU banks and whether the ECB offer a short-term bridge to offset any potential liquidity issues for EU banks - the market sees the peak/terminal rate of 3.62%, implying 3 more 25bp hikes – does this seem correctly priced? EURJPY and EURAUD are the vehicles for the EUR bulls. EURGBP favoured into the range low of 0.8730.
US nonfarm payrolls (5 May 22:30 AEST) - The consensus is for 180k jobs (the economist’s range of 265k to 125k), which would be the lowest number of job additions since Dec 2020 - the U/E rate is eyed at 3.6% (unchanged), with average hourly earnings expected unchanged at 4.2% yoy. The NFP takes place after the FOMC meeting, so the outcome could influence June FOMC rates/OIS pricing. A number below 150k could hit the USD and boost the NAS100.
EU CPI (2 May 19:00 AEST) – the outcome could heavily shape pricing for the ECB meeting 2 days later – the market consensus is that we see headline core CPI (estimate) at 7% (from 6.9%), with core CPI at 5.6% (5.7%) with the economists range seen between 5.8% to 5.5% – EURUSD trades a 1.0900 to 1.1100 range – happy to be guided by this, but the market seems skewed for an upside break.
RBA meeting (2 May 14:30 AEST) - The market prices a 12% chance of 25bp hike for this meeting, which despite the base case for a hold, seems to be priced on the low side - Leverage funds are long AUD but real money are short - the market is priced for an extended pause from the RBA, which should limit the downside in AUD. Huge support at 0.6580 in AUDUSD, and happy to revisit shorts on a closing break.
US JOLTS jobs openings (3 May 00:00 AEST) - The consensus is that jobs openings fall to 9.725m (from 9.931m) - we've seen jobs openings steadily fall since March 2022 - a drop below 9.7m could be a positive for risk and be a small negative for the USD.
ISM manufacturing report (2 May 00:00 AEST) – the consensus sees the index at 46.8 (46.3) - a weak number, but less so than the prior month - one for the recession callers will be keen to point out, while crude holds a strong relationship with the new orders sub-component.
Euro Bank Lending survey - We look for intel on a tightening of bank lending standards - EU rates pricing, the EUR, and EU bank equity firmly in focus.
ISM services (4 May 00:00 AEST) - The market sees the index at 51.8 (from 51.2) – in essence, US service sector data continue to show the US is growing, but below trend.
April Employment report (5 May 22:30 AEST) - The market looks for 20k net jobs to be added, with the U/R at 5.1% - the market sees the BoC on hold in June, with rate cuts priced from Q3 and its hard to see this jobs report affecting pricing too intently. USDCAD is finding better sellers of late, and a break of 1.3531 may accelerate the move lower.
NZ Q1 Employment report (3 May 08:45 AEST) - The market looks for the U/R of 3.6%, with an employment change +1.8% - could get attention from FX traders, but unlikely to be a significant vol event for the NZD. That said, I see risks NZDUSD trades to 0.6250.
US500 - Bullish momentumThe S&P500 has broken the descending trendline and a strong resistance and continues to move towards higher resistance levels.
1D supports and resistances:
Good trading!
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SPX | We are not out of the woods yetEverywhere good news, inflation is dropping, the FED is about to pivot. Energy is dropping and every single technical indicator is telling us that we are in a "perfect bottom". Many argue that we are in a similar situation to 2015, at least the price action of the main indices. So let's discuss some arguments and figure this out. First and foremost, price action.
Price action and indicators are ultra-bullish
One of the "bullish" indicators is the well-known Stochastic RSI. Stochastic RSI analyses RSI. The 1M and 2M oscillators are at a bottom. So we expect a swing upwards.
I have circled the RSI in two separate times, in 2015 and now.
RSI has to go through both the 50 mark, and it's WMA. There is significant resistance above.
There is more...
On the peak of the stochastic on 1W, the difference is night and day.
In 2015 we had already easily skipped an "uninverted ribbon", while now we are into significant resistance. This week we had outright rejection.
This tells us that the 1M oscillator will have much trouble swinging upwards, since the 1W oscillator is at it's peak and price rejected on resistance. A successful swing should be verified by many oscillators.
If you look at the 12M chart, you will understand.
2000: Stochastic begins a move downwards, RSI below WMA (resistance).
2015: Stochastic is roaming upwards, RSI above WMA (support).
2022: Stochastic begins a move downwards, RSI below WMA (resistance).
DJI is super strong, and above the cloud and ribbon
Yes it is. But for the last 20 years, DJI stood high in periods of recession.
The only exception is the "Trump run era" I made up. When Trump became president, he did made all sorts of "gifts" to blue chips.
A comparison between DJI/M2SL and SPX/M2SL in the same period.
Right now, DJI is hanging on, amidst a painful recession for most equities.
Also look at energy.
SKEW is inside a falling wedge.
Several weeks ago, it reached an all-time-low. Now, 1M and 2M stochastics are ready for prime time.
The same holds true for VIX
The FED is burning money, at any moment a liquidity crisis can begin.
Ever heard of Wyckoff Distribution? It is the most accurate analysis of stock market. It is the most fundamental behavior. Here are some distributions, in wildly different timeframes. All featuring DJI.
DJI/SILVER - 100 year distribution
DJI*US10Y - 25 year distribution
DXY*DJI - 1 year distribution
I'm out
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Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
US500 short ideaI know a lot of people want the stock market to crash and burn, and for the US economy to go into a recession.
Well here is my idea of what to look for in a short trade on the US500, ES, SPX etc.
But be warned, after this tax drain, if the US Congress lifts the debt ceiling, your shorts will be blown out of the water.
There will be more and more positive fiscal transfers as the level of interest rate as seen in the EFFR stays high and even goes a little higher.
More pressure to keep shorts under waterI marked the 1.13 and the 1.272 fib extensions. We see an upward channel right now so short term bullish but then we should be looking to enter short around 4200.
4-27-23 [spx]gm gm,
quick update to the local trajectory on the spx500.
after invalidating the 5th leg up locally (via my last post),
it becomes abundantly clear to me, that all of these moves - are in fact 3 wave moves.
being this corrective by nature, i can now conclude my entire theory by saying this is in fact a massive B wave,
and spx will undergo a significant break down once wave b has been completed (quite possible sub-covid-low).
---
no downside targets at this time,
but i got you whenever i see it.
---
>keep in mind, these posts are very general, and you should consistently be doing your own dd, and analysis on the ever-changing market structures.
✌
4-25-23 [spx]good afternoon anon,
are you feeling bearish all of a sudden?
it's okay, that's natural.
---
spx looks to be in a local 4th wave right now -
4073.75 is the hard invalidation on this local wave.
if it is breached, the upside move is invalidated and bears take full control over the next 2 weeks.
---
>if the bulls are succesful in this local setup,
>i am estimating a move up to 4250 into this friday where i believe pce comes in hot,
>and sends the market tumbling down into the dungeons.
---
nfa, do your own research and dd.
S&P500 Sell signal confirmedThe S&P500 (SPX) has had an excellent run following our buy call more than one month ago:
Yesterday though it flashed a sell confirmation as the price broke and closed below the Higher Lows trend-line of the recent Channel Up bottom. Both previous times this happened (December 06 2022 and February 17 2023, it was a major sell signal towards a new Channel Up (Higher) Low. Additionally, the 1D MACD has made a Bearish Cross.
The Support Zone 1 that is currently being tested, has on those previous fractals provided the first layer of accumulation that later broke and targeted both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Our target is 3915, just above Support Zone 2, which was hit during both previous corrections.
Invalidation of this pattern will happen if a 1D candle closes above the Lower Highs trend-line, in which case the 4195 Resistance will be targeted.
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Swing LONG $US500Bullish engulfing candle after tapping a demand zone.
Tempted to long from here but I'll wait till tomorrow, see how price holds above the demand zone.
Goodnight!
US500 Next MovePair : US500
Description :
Rising Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame with the Breakout of the Lower Trend Line and Retracement
Divergence
Break of Structure
Bullish Channel in Short Time Frame as an Corrective Pattern
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive and " ABC " Corrective Wave
S&P500: Head and Shoulders emerging. Sell signal.The S&P500 crossed under the 4H MA100 today and is forming a Head and Shoulders pattern on extremly bearish 4H technicals (RSI = 37.236, MACD = -4.910, ADX = 58.125).
This is a sell signal especially if the price rebounds now and gets one last rejection on the 4H MA50. A similar pattern formed the February High. We are targeting S1 initially (TP1 = 4,050) and if the index closes under the 1D MA50 (red line), extend selling to S2 (TP2 = 3,925).
Prior idea:
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S&P500 Channel Down or Bull Flag? Trade accordingly.The S&P500 is testing the Rising Support of the Channel Up pattern.
It is doing so inside a dashed Channel Down, which can also be a Bull Flag.
As long as the price closes over the Rising Support, buy and target 4215 (Fibonacci 1.5).
If it closes under it, sell and target 4050 (4hour MA200).
Previous chart:
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SP500 can reach the 4200 🦐SP500 after our previous analysis reached the weekly resistance.
The market after a distribution phase started. a new series of higher high higher low moves.
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for the US market open and a potential break of the structure.
IF that will happen i will look for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
US500: Bearish Continuation is Highly Probable! Here is Why:
Looking at the chart of US500 right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move down seems to be quite likely.
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US500, 4days/-8.41%falling cycle -8.41% in 4 days.
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This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
Banking Cry sisgo long, wave3 extention leads to shallow wave-4s . I know a lot, I am the god of trading
S&P500 Cyclical buy signal starting next monthThis analysis is basically an extension of the study we published last week, explaining how the index is starting an aggressive expansion:
Based purely on the 3W time-frame, now we have incorporated the Sine Waves to clearly display the cyclical buy/ sell pattern inside the long-term Channel Up that started at the bottom of the Housing Crisis (March 2009).
As this shows, for the past 10 years, the bottom of the Cycles is where investors should consider to start buying, while the top is where they should consider to start selling. The last sell signal was given on October 25 2021 and the next buy signal will be flashed on May 30 (2023).
With the index trading around the 3W MA50 (blue trend-line) since it rebounded off the market bottom (October 2022), this price action may imply that the market is in anticipation of the big move. This cyclical buy signal may just be the trigger it needs.
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US500 H4 | Bounce from 50.0% Fibo?US500 is approaching a key support level and potentially bounce from here. We could see price move up to our take profit target.
Entry:
Why we like it:4116.05
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 4061.20
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support
Take Profit: 4173.48
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance at the recent swing-high
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
US500 (SPX) Outlook 4/16Bullish on indices, but I don't trust those lows. Want to see them taken out before the move up. FVG below is added reason to expect them to fail.
US500 H4 | Bounce from 38.2% FiboUS500 is approaching a key support and potentially bounce from here. We could see price move up to our take profit target.
Entry: 4132.55
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 4086.65
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
Take Profit: 4173.45
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
