US500: The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear subscribers ,
Please, find my technical outlook for US500 below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 4209.1
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 4259.0
My Stop Loss - 4183.6
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Us500
US500: Bullish Continuation
The analysis of the US500 chart clearly shows us that the pair is finally about to go up due to the rising pressure from the buyers.
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NASDAQ PIVOT AROUND THE CORNERHello everyone,
The ascent of the past few weeks driven by major tech and AI stocks is coming to an end. There may be a further rise up to 4300 S&P500 future and 15000 Nasdaq 100 future, but it won't last long. The idea is that the impasse on the US public debt has made it favorable for capital to move out of the short-term government bond market, waiting to reenter after the issuance of new bonds following the debt ceiling increase. This has led such capital to seek refuge and profit in big tech and AI, supported by excellent earnings, promising guidance, and low operational debt, making them less risky in case of default and interest rate hikes.
Therefore, it can be expected that after the debt ceiling increase and the issuance of new short-term bonds with higher yields, the above-mentioned capital may reenter the treasury market, triggering a gradual sell-off in the tech sector due to the overbought condition and profit-taking. It should also be noted that the issuance of new bonds will drain liquidity from the system, leading to a correction in high-risk markets, namely a liquidity drain from equities.
In short, the recent surge in tech and AI over the past weeks is partly due to investors' high expectations for these stocks, but also, and above all, due to the need for capital from the government bond market to flee in anticipation of the debt discussion, and then reenter with higher yields by purchasing newly issued government bonds (the new yield upon issuance is obviously higher than in the past due to the increase in reference rates).
In conclusion, a plausible scenario is that futures reach 4300 for S&P500 and 15000 for Nasdaq100, and then correct downwards with the extended downward leg reaching 3800 and 11000 respectively.
Nice trading,
cheers
US500 What Next? BUY!
My dear subscribers ,
US500 looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 4197.0
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 4242.1
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Spx 🌊Salutations,
At this present moment, I find it challenging to elucidate the precise reasoning as to why the S&P 500 was poised to recede back to the melancholy depths of the pandemic lows.
Nevertheless, I can confidently postulate the resurgence of a risk-on environment in the aftermath.
ideally as we approach the yuletide chill of Christmas Eve at the conclusion of this present year,
I cast my net at $2,100 as the absolute nadir of this grizzly mark-down-phase.
---
Upon a successful breach of this strategic area,
I am further prophesizing a subsequent phoenix-like rise,
elevating us to a commanding $7,777 threshold as we stride valiantly into the year 2030 through a vortex of an ending diagonal.
---
2024 - $2,111
2030 - $7,777
2035 - $12,222
☿
S&P500 rebounding on the MA50 (1d) but be careful if broken.The S&P500 index is on the first green (1d) candle after an almost test of the MA50 (1d). This level has been holding since March 30th, so consider it a short term buy entry.
The short term pattern is a Megaphone inside a long term Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the market price.
2. Sell upon a candle closing under the MA50 (1d).
3. Buy at 3980 (the MA200 1d).
Targets:
1. 4250 (Megaphone top).
2. 3980 (the MA200 1d).
3. 4330 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) has a clear long term Support Zone (39.00- 33.50). If the MA50 (1d) breaks, it can be used as additional confirmation to plan your long term buy entry.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
CONSOLIDATION NEARING ITS END!The SP500 is in long consolidation and it looks like it is near to its end.
I am considering two scenarios:
1. After debt ceiling deal – when they increase debt limit – the price will break up as a bull trap and will bounce from the next resistance.
It will fuel the price to push to the targets – near pandemic bottoms.
2. The price, after the deal, will do correction of last decline and will continue to drop till meet the targets.
S&P500 on the 1day MA50 againS&P500 / US500 approached the 1day MA50 again. This level has been supporting since the March 29th break out (almost 1 month).
Buy as long as it holds and target the dashed Rising Resistance at 4230.
Sell if the price closes under the 1day MA50 and target the Megaphone's bottom at 4030.
The 1day RSI is consolidating inside a Rectangle whose highs and lows give accurate sell/ buy signals inside the Megaphone.
Previous chart:
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US500 - SHORTThe situation does not look great for the stocks market, all the shares have reached very high levels but lately the volumes have slowed down due to the very high prices, no one wants to buy Meta, Apple, AMD or Nvidia at some prices with 100 or even 200% higher than a few months ago, so a price correction is beneficial.
At the moment we see that on the 4h chart, we had this break of the support, which cannot take the price to the targeted area.
US500 SHORTSPotential spx short entry coming up.
if price breaks and holds below ARL we will enter short.
I will update if things set up for the short.
not tagged in this entry yet.
US500: Long Signal Explained
US500
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy US500
Entry - 4137.1
Stop - 4117.4
Take - 4166.6
Our Risk - 1%
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US500 Is Going Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for US500.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 4138.7.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 4175.8 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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✅US500 BUYING OPPORTUNITY|LONG🚀
✅US500 is trading in an uptrend
Along the rising support line
Which makes me bullish biased
And the pair is about to retest the rising support
Thus, a rebound and a move up is expected
With the target of retesting the level above at 4180
LONG🚀
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Bullish breakout from the narrow rangeA few days ago, we introduced a setup with a bearish trigger coming after the breakout below the narrow range between $4,050 and $4,200. Despite that, the market decided to go in the opposite direction and broke to the upside. This development is bullish for the short term, and because of that, we will pay close attention to the index’s ability to hold above this level. We would like to see SPX close above $4,200 in at least two following trading sessions to support the continuation upwards. Contrarily, if the price closes below the level, it will indicate exhaustion; in the case that SPX falls below $4,200 and then breaks back above it, the count will reset.
As for the outlook beyond the short term, it remains unchanged (bearish). We believe the market’s rally (and increasing irrationality) is unsustainable. To support our notion, we would like to point out that only a handful of companies are responsible for more than half of SPX’s gains this year; in fact, Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA are responsible for about 60% of gains in SPX year to date (representing about a 5% move up in the index since the start of 2023). In our opinion, that raises a question of whether SPX and Nasdaq are even good to look at in order to assess the overall health of the economy (as few companies are having a too big impact on the overall performance of these indices).
In addition to that, we still have not seen the full impact of FED rate hikes due to a considerable lag that monetary policy tends to bring with it. Then there are also many other problems with people maxing out their credit cards at a time when delinquencies on loans are slowly starting to tick higher (for example, delinquencies on credit card loans went up approximately 36% in 2022), existing home sales faltering after a short rebound in early 2023, various commodities declining significantly (in a sign of falling demand), industrial production moving relatively sideways for the past few months, etc.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the narrow range.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
All eyes on SPX these days NDQ still rubbing it's 2008 resistance, this will be a pivotal point nevertheless, with megacaps overbought I would have a short bias, instead of a long one.
ES (SPX500) Short-Term Bullish Expectation/AnalysisThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
S&P500 New Bullish Cross can take it higher.The S&P500 index (SPX) hit last week our long awaited 4190 target, a level we set 2 months ago (see idea below):
That trade was taken right before the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, the 2nd within the long-term Channel Up pattern. Last Thursday, the index completed the 3rd Bullish Cross of the Channel Up and continues to rise within a shorter term Rising Wedge.
With the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) intact as a Support since March 29, and the price breaking above the (former) 4195 Resistance, we remain bullish and will buy again: a) if the price pulls back near the bottom of the Rising Wedge and target 4250 or b) if it closes a 1D candle above the Rising Wedge and target 4280 (top of Channel Up).
Similarly, we will sell the break-out if it closes below the 1D MA50 and target the bottom of Support Zone 2 and the Channel Up (Higher Lows trend-line) at 3950.
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A Traders’ Playbook - A defining Week for Financial Markets After an eventful week for the NAS100, US500, JPN225, GER40 and the USD, traders should be open-minded for further twists in the market script this week.
At one stage last week better-than-feared US data and some modestly hawkish Fed chatter saw US interest rate futures price a 40% chance of a hike at the June FOMC meeting - the USD naturally benefited from this pricing. Yet after Jay Powell’s speech on Friday market pricing is firmly back to thinking the Fed will pause. I look at the data flow due in the week ahead and question how the outcome could affect market pricing for Fed action in June (and further rout the rates curve) and what that means for the USD, equities, and gold.
However, it still feels like the US debt ceiling, and the price action in US banks, are going to dominate the narrative.
In the art of brinkmanship, it feels that to get a deal we must see greater market volatility and so far, we’ve not really seen really any stress outside of US Treasury bills. That could change this week and while for much of last week the headlines were that a deal is within reach, the breakdown in talks from Republican negotiators on Friday has many thinking that we could be pushed right to the June deadline before we see an agreement – where in the spirit of political negotiations politicians simply have to take this to the wire to make it seem like they’ve truly fought for the best deal.
Volatility markets are calm as they come, but don’t be surprised if that changes this week.
Marquee event risks for the week ahead
US core PCE (Friday 22:30 AEST) – The market expects core PCE at 4.6% YoY, with economists’ range of estimates set between 4.7% to 4.2%. A number below 4.4% could weigh on the USD, while above 4.7% and the USD should find buyers. Much obviously depends on the news flow at that time around the US debt ceiling.
FOMC May meeting minutes (Thurs 04:00 AEST) – while the minutes are backwards-looking in nature it could give us some understanding as to the appetite within the Fed ranks to pause in the 14 June FOMC meeting.
S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMI (Tues 23:45 AEST) – the market has moved on this data release before, and above consensus numbers could push the USD higher. With US growth data points under the spotlight, we look to see if manufacturing grows or contracts (month-on-month) and how it stacks up vs UK and EU PMIs – the consensus is for manufacturing to print 50 (from 50.2) and for services at 52.5 (53.6).
*Above 50 shows expansion vs the prior month, below 50 shows contraction.
UK CPI (Wed 16:00 AEST) – the market expects headline inflation to fall rapidly to 8.2% (from 10.1%), while core inflation is expected to be steady at 6.2% (6.2%). The form guide suggests a modest risk of an above consensus outcome and could have meaning on the 22 June BoE meeting, where the market ascribes an 80% chance of a hike. GBPUSD support is seen at 1.2355 and a weak print could see this tested.
UK Global manufacturing and services PMI (Tues 18:00 AEST) – the market sees the manufacturing index coming in at 48.0 and services at 55.5 (55.9). Unlikely this data series materially impacts interest rate expectations for the June BoE meeting - so in turn, I’m not expecting this to influence the GBP in any great capacity, but that depends on the outcome of course.
EU Global manufacturing and services PMI (Tues 18:00 AEST) – the market sees a modest improvement in the pace of contraction in manufacturing, with the diffusion index eyed at 46.0 (45.8). Services PMI is eyed at 55.5 (56.2), which would be a healthy pace of growth. EURUSD is likely sold into rallies this week, although higher volatility driven by a worsening in the debt ceiling talks could see the USD offered.
RBNZ meeting (Wed 12:00 AEST) – the market prices 33bp of hikes (a 32% chance of a 50bp hike), with 16/17 economists calling for a 25bp hike. With the economist community of the view we get a 25bp hike, there are risks of a quick drop in the NZD (given the small premium for a 50bp hike). We’ve seen traders covering NZD shorts into the meeting, with the NZD the best performer in G10 FX last week. Are we close to the end in the hiking cycle? The market prices a 25bp hike at this meeting and at least one more by October.
Tokyo CPI (Fri 09:50 AEST) – the market sees headline inflation at 3.4% and core inflation at 3.9% (from 3.8%) – last week the JPY attracted good selling flow as the carry trade kicked in in earnest. Again, much depends on the feel towards the US debt ceiling as the JPY is probably the best trade to be long if we do see higher volatility as we roll towards 1 June.
Stock of the week:
NVIDIA (report Thursday at 06:20 AEST) – it’s been an incredible hold throughout all of 2023 and a momentum juggernaut, driven largely by a constant wave of short-dated call (options) buyers. Into Q1 24 earnings, we find the stock +113% YTD with valuations at sky-high levels. Investors can buy NVDA for a hefty 68x earnings, well above the long-term average - the idea of buying growth at any price rings true here. Nvidia is the poster child of the AI revolution, with many now using the word “bubble” more liberally towards AI equities.
The implied move on the day of earnings is 3.3% and given the incredible run through 2023 this level of expected movement seems rather conservatively priced by options market makers. With the street expecting the company to report 91c of EPS, on $6.503b in sales, one questions if earnings and guidance truly matter - or do management just need to offer inspiration on the future of AI and Nvidia’s leadership in the AI/ML space to keep the bull run intact.
Central bank speakers in the week ahead:
Fed speakers – Bullard, Bostic, Barkin, Daly, Logan, Waller, Collins
ECB speakers – There are 19 speakers due this week I won’t list them all
RBA speakers – David Jacobs (Head of Domestic markets) speaks (Wed 17:10 AEST)
BoE speakers – Haskel, Bailey
S&P500: Pull-back short term but new Bull Cycle ahead.S&P500 has almost reached the medium-term TP (4,220) so we are booking the profit on last Friday's buy position. The 1W timeframe is on steady green levels technically (RSI = 58.257, MACD = 54.060, ADX = 33.739) but the RSI is at the top of its Rising Wedge, indicating a possible loss of strength. We expect a pull-back to S1 and will buy it, targeting R1 (TP = 4,330), which is the High of August 2022.
On the long term the bullish trend is intact (Channel Up) and we have an additional reason to expect a new Bull Cycle, as the 1W Ichimoku Cloud has turned green and when that happened in the past, the 1W MA50 usually turns into the long term Support for many months before a correction.
Prior idea:
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The number of SPX stocks above 200-day SMA is decliningThe 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) is a widely followed technical indicator used by traders and investors to assess the overall trend of an asset. When stocks rise above their 200-day SMA, it is generally seen as a positive sign and considered a bullish development. The logic behind this idea is that if the stock's price has been consistently higher than its long-term average, it indicates strength and potential for further upward movement. Conversely, if stocks drop below this level, it is viewed as a bearish signal, implying weakness and the possibility of more downside. Monitoring the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA can provide valuable insights into the overall health and direction of the market. Therefore, today, we will examine the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 Index that are currently trading above their 200-day SMA.
Since SPX’s lows in October 2022, there have been three significant peaks in the index, particularly on 13th December 2022, 2nd February 2023, and 1st May 2023. From October 2022 lows until the peak in December 2022, the percentage of SPX stocks was rising (as a matter of fact, this metric started to grow even sooner than the index, in late September 2022). However, after constituting a high in December 2022, SPX started to decline, and so did the percentage of SPX stocks above the 200-day SMA. This decline did not last long, and SPX began to rise again toward the end of 2022 and early 2023. The growth was sustained until 2nd February 2023, and after that, SPX started falling until a low on 13th March 2023. Then, the index began to rise again until 1st May 2023.
The SPX was accompanied by a rising percentage of SPX stocks above the 200-day SMA on the first two legs up. But on the third leg up, SPX was accompanied by the growing metric only until early April 2023. Then, in mid-April 2023, the metric started deviating from the increasing (or sideways-moving) price of SPX. This catches our attention as it can potentially imply exhaustion for the rally, showing more and more stocks turning bearish while the index continues to hold up.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX (on the top) and the percentage of SPX stocks above 200-day SMA (on the bottom).
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish (showing a lack of trend/momentum)
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP500 - SHORT SETUPOn daily timeframe, we have a last pump wich show us the level of distribution area, nothing bullish undeer 4200.
If the daily candle will close under 4.160, i will enter short
S&P500 The Cup pattern that nobody notices!We have been so focused on the short-term Channel Up on the S&P500 (SPX) since March (see idea below) that we didn't publish any analysis on the longer term dynamics:
This analysis offers critical insight on where we are with regards to the long-term/ Cyclical trend. One parameter that stands out is that the S&P500 index has failed on two occasions to break the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) since August 26 2022. It just so happens now that the 1W MA100 is exactly on Resistance 1 (February 02 High). A break above it is a buy break-out signal targeting Resistance 2 (4330).
However, it is equally probable to see a medium-term pull-back since, as you see on the chart, the curved Support Zone (dotted) that is connecting all the Lower Lows since December 2021 and provided all counter-trend rallies so far goes through th 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). A bounce there (could be within 3980 - 4000), confirms the pattern and would make the Channel's new Higher Low. If it breaks though, expect the 3810 Support 1 to be tested.
Notice also that the RSI on the 1W time-frame is approaching its own Higher Lows Zone, which has been a Buy Zone for exactly 1 year!
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