S&P500: The 1W MA100 and 0.5 Fib are the biggest hurdles.The S&P500 gives a very clear impression as to what the situation is on the 1W timeframe. Despite the recovery early this year with the index crossing above the 1 year LH trendline, thus getting out of the Bear Cycle, the 1W technicals are basically neutral (RSI = 56.583, MACD = 37.340, ADX = 36.258). A big part of it is because the index has been ranging inside the R1 and S1 Zones since November.
Key levels to watch are 1) the 1W MA100, which hasn't been hit August 22nd and hasn't made a weekly closing above since August 15th and 2) the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which despite having candle's crossing over it, hasn't made a closing since (again) August 15th.
According to this, a last pullback to S1 is possible and then the decisive rebound that will make a Higher High on the 5 month Channel Up on the 0.618 Fibonacci, below R2 (TP = 4,300).
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Us500
S&P500 FIrst time in 2 weeks to hit the 4H MA50The S&P500 index (SPX) has extended its rise since our buy call 21 days ago:
The price is at the moment on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 28. The Higher Lows trend-line below offers an additional Support level, with the last resort being the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) below, in case the 4H RSI breaks towards the Green Zone. Regardless of this minor technical pull-back, our Target remains 4190 just below the Resistance (February 02 High), with the Higher High extension of the Channel Up showing potential for even 4250.
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Waiting for confirmations to short ES - SP500 - US500
Hello Everyone,
This is my analysis about the SP500, since we're having a bad data on the PMI Services and if Friday delivers a bad interpretation of the NFP news, i want to see a retracement into the premium key levels and see in a lower timeframes a confirmation of a bearish move, then i'll proceed to short and targeting the fair value area and a lower prices.
This is not a financial advice, the idea is for study purposes. In any case, it is not meant to give you a signal.
This is just a way for me to read the markets.
"Bad news" are becoming bad newsBad financial data for the U.S. market continues to stack up. This week, we saw a slump in ISM non-manufacturing PMI to 51.2 (from the previous figure of 55.1) and ISM manufacturing PMI to 46.3 (from 47.7 in the preceding print). In addition to that, we also saw that factory orders declined by 0.7% (MoM) in February 2023, and JOLTs job openings fell below 10 million for the first time in nearly two years. Finally, as if it was not enough, ADP employment change came in at 145 000 (vs. 261 000 in the previous release), far below expectations. More data is scheduled for release today, including initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, and total vehicle sales. While we can speculate whether these numbers will be good or bad, we can hardly argue about the increasingly apparent trend of worsening economic data (among various metrics). With that said, we believe the market is reaching a point when data will start to matter again (especially after a decade of disregarding fundamentals as unimportant). As a result, “bad news” will become bad news, no longer sparking speculation about the U.S.'s ability to dodge a recession. Accordingly, we remain bearish on the index and maintain our price target of $3 400.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX and two simple moving averages. It also shows sloping resistance and two sloping supports. A breakout above the sloping resistance will be bullish, while a breakout below support levels will bolster a bearish case.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish (weak trend)
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SPX RALLY CONTINUESAll indicators are showing a continuous rally on the SPX. Despite closing lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, the index rebound in the next two trading days and almost managed to reach the opening levels from Tuesday.
Both MACD and RSI are confirming the bullish trend, with MACD histogram being above zero and RSI above 50 neutral line.
If this scenario continues, the price might reach levels of 4312.In the opposite scenario, as a pivot point might be viewed the price of 4000, after it new lows of 3925 might be reached.
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US500 Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear subscribers ,
US500 looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 4113.6
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Target - 4185.5
Recommended Stop Loss - 4072.9
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
HANG SENG BUYIncreasing confidence for global economic resilience in 2023. Global growth for 2023 has continued to improve. The U.S. has started the year with a degree of momentum, even if activity could wane as the year progresses. Chinese activity is bouncing back as the economy reopens, while the Eurozone is likely to benefit as energy prices have receded and headline inflation has slowed. While banking and financial sector strains have clouded the outlook to some extent, we ultimately believe authorities will do whatever is needed and will be successful in containing those difficulties. Against that backdrop, our upwardly revised forecast means we now expect the global economy to avoid recession this year.
US30, US500 S&P Next Weekthe value is on a overbought state
Looking for a M shape return to fib's 62% level next week
+ US bad data
+ Bank crisis
+ Growing fear of rates
US500 H4 | Potential bounce off from 23.6%?Looking at the H4 chart, it appears that the price is nearing our buy entry at 4058.68. This level is a pullback support level, accompanied by a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit level is set at 4135.55, which is a swing high resistance. We will set our stop loss at 4007.06, which is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
US500 | Bearish SentimentThe US500 is currently showing a strong bearish sentiment, with several indicators pointing towards further downside potential. The moving average ribbons are sloping downwards, indicating a clear downtrend, and the momentum of the market is also in a bearish direction.
In terms of price action, the US500 has been exhibiting a clear bearish trend, with lower lows and lower highs being formed over the past few weeks. This suggests that selling pressure is increasing, with bears firmly in control of the market.
Given these factors, it seems likely that the US500 will continue to experience downward pressure in the near term, with further declines possible as the bearish momentum builds. Traders should exercise caution when considering long positions, as the overall outlook for the market is bearish.
US500 A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear subscribers ,
Please, find my technical outlook for US500 below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 4079.8
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 4001.3
Recommended Stop Loss - 4125.6
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
S&P500 - Short active ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on US500.
Technical analysis: Here I expect bearish price action as we can see that price took buy stop liquidity, filled the imbalance and then rejected from bearish order block.
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S&P500: This may be the rally that turns the 1WMA50 into SupportThe S&P500 has completed 3 straight green weeks, the strongest 3 week rally since October 24th. As we zoom out on the 1W time frame where the technicals have just only turned marginally bullish (RSI = 55.603, MACD = 28.700, ADX = 34.959) we can see an attempt to form a Channel Up. The 1W RSI is slightly pulling downwards and since it started rising back in May, this was a pull back signal within a greater bullish wave. Those are clearly shown on your chart. The June 13th-August 15th wave rose by 18.90% and the October 10th-December 12th wave rose by 18.40%.
This suggests that there is still much room left to rise on this wave, thus we remain bullish aiming at another +18.40% rise (TP = 4,500). It is worth making clear at this point that if another such bullish wave is materialized, then the 1W MA50 will be turned into a Support for good. And this trendline tends to be the standard Support level during Bull Cycles.
Prior idea:
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US500 H4 | Retreating to support?US500 is heading towards a key support. Price could hit our buy entry at 4058.68 and bounce up our take profit at 4137.00 which is a recent swing-high. Stop loss is at 4007.06 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
US 500 LongIf this is an Inverse Head and Shoulders chart pattern, 4200 is the target.
What we need to see is the price get above the recent POC.
Blood is in the streets.
The Fed needs to get some new expectations out and deliver some news that comforts the market. Or this is their way of creating financial turmoil that gets job losses that crushes the demand. You choose your narrative.
Or, maybe the news is designed to shake everyone's confidence so that the actual money men of this world can buy at a discount.
S&P 500| SHORT INCOMING | DECRYPTERS Hi people welcome to Team Decrypters
POTENTIAL SHORT SETUP
We Expecting short term Retracement At least ( orange path)
Long term Target ( yellow path could be followed )
FED has cleared they will Keep Rate hikes ELEVATED for long time , Markets are pricing in Future Rate cuts
i don't think there will be ANY RATE CUTS ,probably 1 more Rate hike and than pause and than keep the RATE HIKES Stay There.
People will Start to spend Less
This will Surely cause RECESSIONARY ENVIOREMENT
Which will cause Earnings to DROPS , Meaning Companies EVALUATION will DROP
Markets Can even CRASH IN MY OPINION ( circumstances can change later but for not it SEEMS)
NOTE :- NASDAQ PREVIOUS CHART linked so in short Nasdaq will Follow S&P 500 Same things Apply for NASDAQ
S&P500 Long and strong on this Channel UpThe S&P500 is extending the rise that we called 2 weeks ago at the bottom (see chart at the end) of the long term Channel Up.
Target (1) was easily and quickly hit and as the price is approaching Resistance Zone (1), we get the potential conditions for a short term pull back.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy any pull back under Resistance Zone (1).
Targets:
1. 4220 (top of the Channel Up and +11.00% rise).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) is approaching a Resistance level that has previously initiated short term pull backs.
2. Ultimate long term target is Resistance (2) at 4330, which will fill the gap of August 16th.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
S&P500 First 4hour Golden Cross in 2.5 months.S&P500 formed the first 4hour Golden Cross since January 16th, breaking above Resistance A.
The RSI is on a Rising Support, same with the previous bullish leg of January.
Following the Golden Cross, the price pulled back to Fibonacci 0.5 and then resumed the uptrend.
Regardless of this potential pullback, we remain bullish on the S&P500 index, with our Target intact at 4280.
Previous chart:
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US500 approaching Year's highHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 4100 zone as we see it attempting to breakout the downtrend. stocks are looking attractive as there is a change in Fed monetary policy that have triggered USD weakness and USD does correlates negatively with indices. if we get a decent breakout we will be watching a potential retrace of the trends towards more Year's highs.
Trade safe, Joe.