Us500
S&P500 potential downsidesHey Traders, US500 is trading in a down trend and extending pullbacks seems to approach the major trend, so in today's trading session i will be watching a potential rejection around 3925 supply and demand zone at the trend. one of the reason i'm considering this potential setup is the bullish momentum on DXY as we know the negative correlation between the stock market and dollar.
Feel free to ask any question in the comment section.
Trade safe, Joe.
GO PRO or Go Home 📷 Analysis #25/50Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
on DAILY: Left Chart
GPRO is stuck inside a range around support in the shape of a rising broadening wedge, and it is currently around the lower bound so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes.
on H4: Right Chart
🏹 For the bulls to take over, we need a momentum candle close above the last major high in gray.
Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, GPRO can still trade lower till the 4.7 support or even break it downward.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
"Crash landing" instead of "soft landing"?Yesterday, U.S. inflation came up in line with expectations, and the market continued to enjoy relief after last week’s route. However, while the FED is progressing in fighting soaring prices, many problems are still on the horizon (declining corporate profits, rising unemployment, the persistence of tight monetary policy, problems in the banking sector, etc.). As such, market developments are starting to align for the “crash landing” instead of the “soft landing” that everyone was so eager to forecast just a month or two ago. With that said, we remain bearish on the U.S. stock market and expect it to decline by 20-30% in the coming months. Accordingly, we maintain our price target for SPX at $3 400.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX and simple support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover between 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SPX500 Retracement To 3980SPX possibly pulling back towards the supply zone @3980-4000. Once at supply we look for a bearish shift in market structure and go short.
S&P500 is accumulating for a 2 year rally to 5700.We have showed you this multi-year Channel Up on the S&P500 index (SPX) before. We have shown you the Lower Lows Support of the 2M RSI that has caught all major bottoms since 2016. What this chart shows is that the index has bottomed on the Channel's Higher Lows (a 13 year trend-line) and is basically on an accumulation phase before the new rally begins.
The previous 2 rallies of the 2011 and 2016 bottoms hit the top of the Channel in about 2 years. That gives a roughy 5700 target by the end of 2024. If it follows the more aggressive COVID recover rout (March 2020 and after) that hit the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, we may hit 6250 by the Summer of 2024.
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SPX500 Short-Term Bearish Analysis/ExpectationThe most logical target for the downtrends in the SPX500 is this year's low at 3814.
The scenario described in the chart is the most likely if the sellers want to hit this target in the short term. Given the high volatility, this scenario doesn't have such a high probability to occur compared to a normal market state.
This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF (IS THE KING)
- ETC
S&P 500 further drop expected?S&P 500 has broken a key overlap support a t3906 and has also broken an ascending support line and crossed below the Ichimoku cloud. This could suggest a further drop below 3906 towards the next major support at 3759.
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S&P500 bottomed on the 5 month Channel Up. Buy.S&P500 hit the exact bottom of the long term Channel Up pattern and remains under the 4hour MA50.
This is an instant buy opportunity technically. The 4hour RSI double bottomed.
This price action looks very much like the previous Channel Lows of December and October.
We buy on the current market price. A crossing above the 4hour MA50 confirms it. Target 1 is 4100 (Fibonacci 0.618) and Target 2 is 4200 (Fibonacci 0.786).
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Your "bull market" thesis does not add upLast summer, we explained how a recession in earnings would confirm the market’s progression into the second stage of the bear market (with the release of corporate earnings for 3Q22 and 4Q22). Furthermore, once major U.S. indices hit lows in October 2022, we warned that stocks and cryptocurrencies were experiencing merely another bear market rally, deceiving the majority of market participants into believing that the primary trend reversal (from bearish to bullish) was taking place. As a result, many popular profiles on TradingView were eager to forecast the bottom and parabolic rallies. Opinions of no pullbacks and “once in a lifetime opportunity to go long” emerged relatively quickly. However, these opinions were pushed forward mainly by people who failed to acknowledge the downtrend for over a year, predicting the market bottom every other week.
We warned about all these developments while highlighting changes in sentiment among investors. In fact, we explicitly said that market participants were looking for any type of excuse for the market to rally (looking for FED’s pivot first and then finding the excuse in the strong labor market). However, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the bull market thesis does not add up with the FED’s hawkish stance (and its commitment to keep raising interest rates).
That is no surprise to us since we recently noted that high hopes of market participants would lead to a repricing event, smashing investors’ optimism (once they find out there will be no reversal in monetary policy). Overall, market developments continue to unravel in line with our previous expectations, and therefore we have no reason to change our bearish stance on the U.S. market. Accordingly, we maintain the price target for SPX at $3 400.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the market's negative reaction to Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks (during yesterday’s testimony to U.S. Congress) on the 1-minute chart.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of SPX. On 28th February 2023, we warned that too many consecutive down days in SPX were making a good case for a rebound. However, we also said that we did not expect this to impact the primary bearish trend. Interestingly, the market followed suit, and SPX (temporarily) rallied above the 20-day SMA, which acts as a resistance. To further support our bearish thesis, we would like to see the price fall below Support 1.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US500 - Short - RR3Smart Money Concepts
During the london killzine (2.00-5.00 ny time) a draw on buyside liquidity took place. The draw on liquidity took out the previous high and formed a bearish market structure shift.
As a result of taking out the previous high and forming a market structure shift, a bearish breaker block has formed. Due to the strong bearish momentum, a bearish fvg has formed.
There's a difference between an imbalance and an fvg. We only take an entry on an fvg combined with a breaker. An fvg is a 3 candle formation that has formed immediatly after a draw on liquidity.
The overlap between the breaker and the fvg is our point of interest to take an entry. In addition, a bearish orderblock has also been formed, which will serve as a last line of defence for our stop loss placement.
As an extra confluence to the above strategy, at least one of the conditions below must be present as well (not all of them are required, one is sufficient enough).
1. MACD signal must be bearish for a short, or bullish for a long
2. MACD bullish divergence for a long, or macd bearish divergence for a short
3. Hull Suite green colored and price above the ribbon for a long, or Hull Suite red colored and price below the ribbon for a short.
4. RSI over bought for a short, or rsi oversold for a long
5. RSI bullish divergence for a long, or RSI bearish divergence for a short
6. Fibonacci golden pocket
stocks upstocks broke their downward channel they are consolidating in since the burst of the corona bubble. price is retesting this channel currently. price is also right at a strong horizontal support. I am expecting a huge move from here. this could be the bottom of our new sideways channel we weill see for the upcoming years.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 16
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 16
Scenario1 4094 short again! Hope you had taken the trade.
No trend changing principles observed, short
preferred.
Scenario Planning:
1) Short if 4094 / 3928 is rejected
2) Long on support and accept of 3788 // 3928
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave (higher vol down bar) close toward low
= Supply remains
Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = some demand noted
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4094 3928
3788 3502-3580
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
S&P500 Exceptional buy.S&P500 reached the bottom of the 4 month Channel Up.
The RSI (1d) is nearly oversold.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 4250 (top of Channel Up and projected +11.20% rise).
Tips:
1. RSI (1d) is forming a huge bottom sequence same with December 19th and September 27th.
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S&P500 - Short from bearish order block ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective of US500 .
Here we are bearish from H4 timeframe perspective, so I am looking for shorts. I expect price to make a retracement to fill the imbalance higher and then to reject from bearish order block.
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S&P500 - When will the upside finish?From a while we have been following the idea of SP500 following a double zigzag to the upside targeting 4300+. We believe this upside to be temporary as per the structure of the downside leg from January's top and the low volume of the recent upside.
In this previous post we outlined the idea of the last C wave of the second zigzag to be about to start, and a possible microcount is showed in the main chart.
The microstructure of the last bounce suggest it to be the beginning of another leg up (5-wave). We will therefore search for another long entry in micro wave ii, ideally with a retest of the greenzone. A breach of 3900 will suggest the bearish scenario and the possibility of the primary wave (B) to the upside to already be finished.
We will update below.
Happy trading!
S&P500 is a perfect buy here long-term in this Cup pattern.The S&P500 is on a medium-term correction following the February 02 rejection just below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). The long-term pattern is a Cup formation and the price is approaching its buy Zone.
Right now though it sits on the Higher Lows trend-line that has formed the medium-term Channel Up and is an ideal buy for the long-term, with limited downside. The 1D RSI is on the December Support and if the perfect symmetry with the downtrend of the Bear Cycle holds, it means it is on an the inverse path of February 22 - June 16 2022.
There are obvious Resistance Zones within the Cup pattern, while also the Fibonacci retracement levels align very well. Buy and target next the 0.618 Fib and the bottom of Resistance Zone 2 at 4300. That is marginally below the August 16 High.
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Can we tag the 200 day ma without breaking below?Traders,
Technicals are still on point. The only question is, "Can we tag our 200 day moving average on the BTC chart without breaking below it"? $20,000 BTC is key. Any break below means trouble. But using it as support without breaking it is technically bullish.
Let's take a look at Bitcoin technicals as well as all the rest of the indicators we have been watching closely.
Stew
SP500, why you should be carefull on the current rally.SP500 / Multi-Time-Frame.
AUDUSD / 4H
Dear Traders,
I warmly welcome you to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis on SP500 pair.
From a weekly viewpoint, in my opinion, SPY looks remarkably bearish . A Double top formation with a previous high on the monthly time frame, and the downward trend has already begun as seen from last month's close.
Everything appears to be pointing towards the onset of the next bear move.
Currently, on the daily timeframe , we are experiencing a pull-back to the Broken support that might turn into resistance. Therefore, I am patiently waiting for my sell zone to be reached and will be looking on lower time frames for a good entry point in case I get my entry creteria validated.
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
S&P500: Strongest buy opportunity of the next 6 weeks.S&P500 is approaching the HL trend line (started November 3rd 2022) on nearly oversold 1D technicals (RSI = 38.159, MACD = -14.370, ADX = 33.442). The main Support is S1 is at 3885 and the price may touch it as it may form a similar bottom to December 22nd with the 4H RSI needing to turn oversold at 30.000 first.
Regardless of that we are turning long on the S&P for the next 6 weeks, targeting R1 (TP1 = 4,015), R2 (TP2 = 4,075) and R3 (TP3 = 4,190).
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