S&P500 Short-term pull-back possible but bullish target intactThe S&P500 has extended its rise since our buy call 11 days ago:
We are slightly modifying the technical parameters within this Channel Up that started back in November as the 1D RSI broke above its 3-week Resistance and on the previous bottom fractal of late December/ early January that translated into a price Resistance rejection and pull-back short-term to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. From the current 4080 Resistance, the 0.5 Fib is at 3945.
This doesn't negate our long-term outlook, which is bullish towards a new Higher High within this Channel Up. Our target is for safety at 4190 (below the 4195 Resistance), but the technical wave can extend as high as +11.00% from the bottom (as the previous two Higher High waves did) and hit 4230.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Us500
US500 | S&P500 | Everyone is Looking to Enter Sell so Let's SellS&P500 is at so called Major Resistance.
Institutes, Banks, Retail and every single person looking at this chart is looking for a sell.
CPI is coming 2 hours from now.
Take positions now or after CPI
There will be huge volatility in this time so Manage Risk Accordingly.
That's it.
No man's land?Over the past few months, many people continued to argue that the bull market has begun and much more upside awaits us. However, since SPX’s lows in mid-October 2022, the market remained relatively choppy for the entire period. In fact, the SPX’s current level is the same as that between mid-November 2022 to mid-December 2022, putting the valuation where it was about four months ago. Throughout the relevant period, it seems the market always found resistance between $4 000 and $4 200, which for the most part, coincided with the release of some bearish data, causing a temporary drop that got quickly absorbed by the market.
We already outlined in previous articles how this could be a result of a beaten-up market looking for any excuse to rally after a terrible performance in 2022. Right now, SPX is again in this magical area that has acted as a strong resistance until now. Therefore, we will pay attention to SPX’s behavior within this zone, with a focus on today’s release of economic data in the U.S. that includes initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, GDP sales, GDP Price Index, GDP growth rate, PCE prices, Core PCE prices, real consumer spending, and corporate profits.
We will also pay close attention to technical indicators like RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart. If MACD breaks above the mid-point, it will be bullish for the short term. Likewise, if RSI and Stochastic rise further, it will also be bullish. In particular, with the RSI, we will also observe its ability to peak (if the market heads higher). In bear markets, it is more common for it to peak below 70 points (or trend sideways below this level before breaking down).
In general, we would say there is a lot of uncertainty among investors, which will likely translate to more choppiness for the market in the short and medium term (until more economic data reflects severe economic problems on various fronts and something snaps). With that said, our outlook beyond the short-term and medium-term fluctuations does not change; we still expect the recession to progress further and eventually start manifesting in a weak stock market, dragging it to new lows.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX and ES1! with RSI below them. It can be easily spotted how RSI managed to break above 70 points only once during 2022. The SPX is approximately up 15% from its October 2022 low while being down about the same margin from its peak in January 2022.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish (Weak trend)
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US500, H4 | Potential bearish reversalPrice is approaching a key resistance level and potentially reverse, we could see the momentum carry price down to our take profit target.
Entry: 4076.65
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance
Stop Loss: 4160.40
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance
Take Profit: 4012.00
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
S&P500 Buy without fear. Bull not over until 2030.This is not the first time we look into the S&P500 (SPX) from a multi-decade perspective. Every time we look into the Cycles since the Great Depression we bring an additional element to the table. This time we break down parts of those Cycles even more and look into the RSI as well. This analysis will attempt to shed light into the doubt of, perhaps the majority of the market, whether or not stocks are out of the 2022 correction.
** Bear and Bull Cycles **
As you see since 2029 and the Great Depression, the index has formed three Bear and three Bull Cycles. We are currently on Bull Cycle 3. When the price breaks above the Bear Cycle Top, the Phase 1 of the Bull Cycle starts and has historically lasted 85-89 months (ends with the first major correction). Phase 2 (orange Rectangle) which starts straight after and ends on the second major correction, lasts within 31 - 35 months. Phase 2 typically ends around the middle of the Bull Cycle.
** The RSI recurring patterns **
Besides the above Cyclical symmetry, the 1M RSI has been extremely consistent throughout these Cycles. As shown, the Bear Cycle Bottom breaks well below the 30.00 barrier and touches 20.00 (extremely oversold conditions). The Bull Phases 1 and 2 are formed while the RSI is on Lower Lows.
** Conclusion **
From the above characteristics and parameters, we can easily draw the conclusion that the 2022 correction was Phase 2 of the Bull Cycle and we won't be seeing its bottom in a very long time. More specifically not before 2031, as Bull Cycles 1 and 2 formed their Tops a little after Fibonacci 2.5 time extension. On Bull Cycle 3 (current) this is on January 2031.
This is in our opinion the ultimate S&P500 cheat-sheet and the reason you may invest with no fear. What do you think?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
S&P500: Channel Up with Golden Cross closing the February Gaps.The S&P500 index formed a Channel Up with the 4H technicals indicating a healthy uptrend (RSI = 63.246, MACD = 19.720, ADX = 49.272). The 4H RSI is on Higher Lows of its own and the 4H MA50 is about to cross over the 4H MA200 and form the first Golden Cross since January 17th. A pullback will be an excellent opportunity for lower risk buys.
The Fibonacci retracement levels act as solid Resistance and Support zones so use them to your advantage if you trade short term. We expect R1 and R2 to get hit and as pointed out in our previous idea, we remain bullish with TP1 = 4,080 and TP2 = 4,160.
Prior idea:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
S&P500 - Will we get lower lows?Hello traders!
In previous posts about the sp500 (see links in description) we argued that some downside was coming and posted our short entry at 3994.
As you can see from the main chart, we connsidered the previous upside from October's low as a corrective move with choppy price action and low volumes.
We are considering different possibilities: either that move was a primary wave (B) to the upside, and main downtrend is resuming for lower lows, or it was only the first leg of this primary (B), and we are retracing down with an intermediate wave B about to conclude.
We are keeping our short with stop loss on entry.
We will refer to patterns and sentiment to assess probabilities of different scenarios.
The light orange zone of support that you can see in the chart, if broken, will activate a bearish head and shoulder that will lead to lower lows. However, since it is not broken, this pattern has not statistical validity.
Here you can see a bearish wolfe wave whose target will be consistent with both scenarios.
No hints for neither case from a pattern perspective until 3766 holds.
From a sentiment andfundamental perspective, we have seen soft lending narrative and the idea that slowing inflation may have led to a Fed pivot boosting bullish sentiment in tha last months. However, FED kept raising rates and banks are suffering it. The fact that all analysts and the general sentiment is not worry about it is a point in favour of a lower low;). But to consider it we want to see impulsive acceleration to the downside. Until then our targets will be 3840 and 3780.
Bests
GMR
US500: Will Keep Falling! Here is Why:
Looking at the chart of US500 right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move down seems to be quite likely.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
US500 H4 | Potential bearish reversal?Looking at the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry area at 4012.00, which is an overlap resistance. If the price were to reverse, it could drop down to our take profit at 3903.06 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement . Stop loss is at 4077.26 which is an overlap resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
US500 Trading in a triangleHello Traders,
on higher timeframes CURRENCYCOM:US500 is trading on a triangle. For the moment we don't know where will be a breakout so we're trading inside of it.
Next target probably the 3850 level.
S&P Harmonics on low time chartsIt would seem smart money institutions are planning something of a bearish move but when looking at the harmonics along side DAX, which is usually closely following, they're worryingly different. This could be the reason for such a snail-paced day.
US500, H4 | Potential bearish reversalPrice is approaching a key support level and potentially reverse, we could see the momentum carry price down to our take profit target.
Entry: 4046.90
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 4192.95
Why we like it:
There is a swing-high resistance
Take Profit: 3897.91
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
US500 H4 | Potential bearish reversal?Looking at the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry area at 4012.00, which is an overlap resistance. If the price were to reverse, it could drop down to our take profit at 3903.06 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 4077.26 which is an overlap resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
S&P500 Will the bond yields rescue or push it lower?The S&P500 recently has been negatively correlated with bond yields. The while line is the US10Y.
This has been inside a Channel Down and is near its bottom. Based on their negative correlation that will push the S&P500 lower.
The time that both the S&P500 and the US10Y rose simultaneously was after August 1st and we can seriously argue that there are resemblances between the two time periods.
What do you expect to happen this time?
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
US500, H4 | Potential bearish reversal?Looking at the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry area at 4032.90, which is an overlap resistance. If the price were to reverse, it could drop down to our take profit at 3944.65 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 4097.53 which is an overlap resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
US500, H4 | Potential bearish reversalPrice could approach a key resistance level and reverse, we could see the momentum carry price down to its take profit target.
Entry: 4064.55
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 4155.75
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance + swing-high
Take Profit: 3897.91
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
US500 Will Most Likely Target 4530Looking for some nice bullish moves during Q2 and I expect price to hit 4530 by summer. With that being said, I also expect more gains above that price this year. Q1 closes in 4 days and we are looking bullish at the moment. If March can go bullish, I believe there is a strong chance stocks will rally this year. This analysis is based on price action, supply and demand, and market structure.
US500 SHORT Currently I'm just waiting for us500 to rise up to 4005 which is my liquidity area for it to then drop down to the 3960 area taking out multiple traders along the way.
SP500, All you need to know.S&P500
Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
In this video I share my opinion on the current situation with the stock market. Plus, a lot of tips have been shared that you might want to add them to your trading skills.
Trade safely.
Trader Leo.
S&P500 breakout and potential retraceHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 3950 zone, US500 was trading in a downtrend but after a dovish FOMC successfully managed to break it out. so if we get any decent pullbacks technically i will be watching a potential retrace of the trend around 3950 supply and demand zone.
trade safe, Joe.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 27
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 27
I won't be trading till the new month starts.
Keep profits and rest if target has been reached, and also
chart is messy at the moment.
Can't imagine a new quarter is starting soon!
Scenario Planning:
1) Possible short if market tests previous rotation area
(grey box)
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = possible weakness
= Supply remains
Daily: Mark up on lower volume = possible buyer's trap
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4082 3928
3788 3502-3580
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
BUY US500 on correction. Short term ideaUS500 broke out of falling channel, retested it and creating a new growing channel respecting its boundaries.
S&P500 the last wave is comingThe S&P500 index is preparing for its last wave up to fresh new highs. Crypto will also outperform all assets. After the blow-off top phase the "real" recession will begin.
