S&P INTRADAY bearish & oversold capped by resistance at 5715Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5715
Resistance Level 2: 5770
Resistance Level 3: 5920
Support Level 1: 5500
Support Level 2: 5390
Support Level 3: 5255
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Us500
XAUUSD is about to top. What this means for stocks?Seven months ago (August 05 2024, see chart below) we gave our long-term view on Gold (XAUUSD) based on the similarities of the current Cycle with the previous one (before the 2020 High):
The market is now approaching our 3100 Target being up +24% since then. We will not go into the similarities between those two Cycles again. The market will complete on this price a +85.42% rise from the bottom, almost reaching the 3.0 Fibonacci extension.
This cyclical pattern shows that when Gold Tops (on its 3rd 1W RSI High) and starts its 4-year Bear Cycle, the S&P500 (blue trend-line) extends its Bull Cycle up until the moment Gold tests its Bear Cycle Resistance and Double Tops, which is when the S&P500 starts its own Bear Cycle and corrects.
Before Gold tops however, the stock market does experience a volatile phase, which is exactly what SPX has been through since January. This is a great signal telling us that Gold may indeed be headed towards a Cycle Top, perhaps even as early as a month from now.
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Bullish rebound?S&P500 (US500) is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 5,539.65
1st Support: 5,385.10
1st Resistance: 5,831.56
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S&P500 The Week Ahead 17th March '25S&P 500 INTRADAY bearish & oversold capped by resistance at 5759 (200DMA)
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P500: Bottom of 2 year Channel. Target 6900.S&P500 is oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 27.644, MACD = -113.480, ADX = 60.232) as the price didn't only cross under the 1D MA200 but is also almost at the bottom of the 2 year Channel Up. In the meantime, the price reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level while the 1D MACD touched its LH trendline. The last time all those conditions were met at the same time was on the October 30th 2023 Low. What followed was a massive rally to the -0.618 Fib extension before the next 1D MA50 pullback. This is a unique opportunity to buy and aim for the -0.618 Fib (TP = 6,900).
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S&P INTRADAY bearish & oversold capped by resistance at 5714The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 3.2% year-on-year in February, down from 3.7% in January and slightly below the expected 3.3%.
The core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 3.4% annually, also lower than the 3.8% recorded in January. On a monthly basis, the PPI remained unchanged, while the core PPI saw a slight 0.1% decline.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5714
Resistance Level 2: 5770
Resistance Level 3: 5805
Support Level 1: 5523
Support Level 2: 5480
Support Level 3: 5300
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US500 Is Bullish! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for US500.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 5,568.9.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 5,791.3 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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S&P INTRADAY reaction to US Inflation figuresUS equity indices reacted positively to the latest US inflation figures released earlier today, as the data pointed to a moderation in price pressures.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to 2.8% year-over-year in February, down from 3.0% in January. This reading not only marked a decline but also came in below market expectations of 2.9%, signaling that inflationary pressures may be easing. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.2%, following a 0.5% rise recorded in January.
Similarly, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.1% year-over-year in February, down from 3.3% in the previous month. This print also fell short of analysts' forecasts of 3.2%, further supporting the view of moderating inflation. On a month-to-month basis, the core CPI edged up by 0.2%.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5713
Resistance Level 2: 5770
Resistance Level 3: 5807
Support Level 1: 5523
Support Level 2: 5480
Support Level 3: 5300
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P500 Strong Support cluster on the 2-year Channel Up.S&P500 (SPX) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up that has made the market recover from the 2022 Inflation Crisis, taking it to a new All Time High (ATH).
The recent 4-week decline however has been an aggressive one and rightly so has sparked heightened fear to investors, especially considering the trade war fundamentals. Technically, the index just broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and is approaching the bottom of this long-term Channel Up, a development that in the eyes of short-term traders is disastrous.
On the long-term though, this is a very strong Support level as the market seems to be repeating the Secondary Channel Up (blue) of February - October 2023. The end of this was also an aggressive correction which broke below both the 1W MA50 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level temporarily before starting a massive Bullish Leg. Even the 1W RSI sequences among the two fractals are similar, despite the current price action being more aggressive.
Interestingly enough, they both declined by at least -10%, so if we see the current week closing in green and by the next starting to recover, it is likely to see a similar Bullish Leg to test the -0.5 Fibonacci extension as the April 01 2024 Top did. That would give us a 6900 long-term Target, which would be a +24.75% rise from the current low, exactly identical with the rise from the April 19 2024 to February 19 2025.
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S&P500 Channel Down good until cancelled.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a 20day Channel Down that spearheaded the technical correction from last month's All Time High.
The 1hour RSI is on a bullish divergence and within this pattern this has signalled a temporary rebound near the 1hour MA100 for a Lower High rejection.
As long as the pattern holds, a tight SL sell position there is the most optimal trade, aiming at 5450.
A crossing over the 1hour MA200, invalidates the bearish sentiment and restores the buying bias. In that case, take the loss on the sell and buy, aiming at 6040 (Fibonacci 2.0 extension).
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S&P500 INDEX (US500): More Down
With a confirmed bearish breakout of a key daily horizontal support,
US500 index opens a potential for more drop.
Next key support is 5425.
It looks like the market is going to reach that soon.
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S&P500: Broke its 1W MA50 after 17 months. Recovery or collapse?The S&P500 turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 29.430, MACD = -85.410, ADX = 51.223) as it breached today its 1W MA50 for the first time since the week of October 30th 2023, i.e. almost 1.5 year. That was a week of a very aggressive recovery after a Channel Up correction, with the bullish sequence reaching 9 straight green weeks. With the 1D RSI ovesold and the 1W RSI almost on the 39.15 Support, which was the low of the October 23rd 2023 1W candle, the index couldn't have been technically on a better long term buy spot.
Needless to say, the market can't rise if the fundamentals are against it and right now the geopolitical tensions and more importantly the trade war isn't helping. If the index does find a positive catalyst to take advantage of, then the bullish technicals of the Channel Up bottom will prevail, and this week's candle may resemble the Max Pain 1W candle under the 1W MA50 of October 23rd 2023. Even if it doesn't rise as high as the 2.382 Fibonacci extension of that rally, we would expect in that instance a 2.0 Fib extension rally like the post August 2024 bullish wave (TP = 6,700). Failure to find support this week though, will most likely result in further collapse (even more aggressively so) to the 1W MA100.
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S&P INTRADAY Bearish & Oversold Capped by 5768 resistanceKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5768
Resistance Level 2: 5800
Resistance Level 3: 5920
Support Level 1: 5647
Support Level 2: 5624
Support Level 3: 5560
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Bearish Outlook for US500: Watching 5,200 SupportAfter testing support at the end of February, the US500 fell below this key level at the start of March, signaling the potential for a deeper correction.
In my view, this scenario is likely, and any rebound this week could present a good selling opportunity for speculators.
My target for this correction is the 5,200 support zone. A stabilization above 6,000 would invalidate this outlook.
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US500 Signaling Optimism!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈Long-term, US500 has been overall bullish trading within the rising wedge pattern marked in blue.
This month, US500 has been in a correction phase, retesting the lower bound of the wedge.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong structure and previous ATH.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of structure and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #US500 is hovering around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
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S&P500 The Week Ahead 10th March '25 Sentiment: Bearish INTRADAY Price action is consolidating in a tight trading range
Resistance: Key Resistance is at 5920, followed by 6003 and 6010.
Support: Key support is at 5664 followed by 5600 and 5554.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P500 1week MA50 test is the last before the Cycle tops.S&P500 / US500 tested this week its 1week MA50 successfully as the price almost touched it and rebounded.
We have seen this kind of behavior in the last 9-12 months before a Bull Cycle tops.
In fact with the 1week RSI trending downwards on a bearish divergence, today's price action looks more similar to the October 13 2014 1week MA50 fakeout, which was breached marginally but rebounded immediately.
Based on that, a 6500 Cycle Top target by October 2025 is very much realistic.
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S&P500: Potential Channel Up rebound on the 1D MA200.S&P500 is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 34.564, MACD = -60.140, ADX = 38.870) as it unfolded the bearish wave of the long term Channel Up. The sequence has hit its 1D MA200 though, which is the major Support on this timeframe and being also the bottom of the Channel Up, we should be expecting a rebound. The first bearish wave of the Channel Up surpassed the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, so that is a valid technical target. The trade is long, TP = 6,300.
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S&P500 INTRADAY Bearish energy build up below 5920Bearish Scenario:
The intraday sentiment remains bearish, with the recent price action appearing as a corrective pullback. The key resistance level to watch is 5920—a rejection at this level could trigger renewed selling pressure. A move lower could target initial support at 5730, with further downside extending toward 5624 and potentially 5600 if bearish momentum persists.
Bullish Scenario:
Alternatively, a breakout above 5920 and a daily close higher would negate the bearish outlook and shift momentum in favor of the bulls. This could open the door for a rally toward 6000, followed by 6052 and ultimately 6160 if buying pressure continues.
Summary:
The S&P 500 is at a critical decision point, with 5920 acting as the key level. A rejection here favors further downside, while a breakout and sustained strength above it could signal a bullish reversal. Traders should closely monitor price action for confirmation of the next move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Another 682 point crash for S&P500 to 5,130?It's been a brutal year so far with the Trump Presidency.
And it's been a rough year for the S&P 500, dropping from 6,149 to 5,811.
The main culprit?
Political instability in the U.S.
The current administration’s unpredictable decisions, sudden tariff hikes, and policy shifts have left investors uneasy and consumers lacking confidence.
Here are six executive orders that have dragged the market down:
Tariff Hikes on China, Mexico, Canada and Europe –
Higher import costs hurt U.S. businesses, especially in tech and retail, slashing profits. Remember imposing tariffs are one thing but there will be retaliatory action.
Environmental Rollbacks –
ESG investors pulled back, hitting energy and industrial stocks.
Work Visa Cuts – Tech and healthcare struggled to hire, slowing innovation.
Healthcare Subsidy Cuts – Uncertainty in insurance and pharma led to stock drops.
Also with the cutting of USAID and with turbulence with WHO this isn't helping the situation
Trade Agreement Pullouts – Supply chain chaos hurt multinational corporations.
ALso with the cutting ties with Ukraine and now with the UK prohibiting funding to the Ukraine (latest on)
With shaky policies and no clear direction, market confidence is shot. Until stability returns, expect more turbulence.
With the price action, it is possible to see this M Formation play out for the SP500.
And it is looking bad, really bad - not great - In Trump's voice.
M Formation
Price<20MA
Needs to break <200MA
Then the next target will be around 5,130...
Let's actually hope I am wrong this time and something miraculously happens to pump up the market again.
We can take advantage and short stocks, indices etc... But there is a moral issue involved with wanting the market to crash. Remember that.